NFL play calling tendencies through 3 weeks

[DJB]

 

Edited 1 hour ago by DJB

[JerseyBills]

Surprised we're bottom 5 in Play Action,  with how effective we've been running the rock

Edited 16 hours ago by JerseyBills

[DJB]

46 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Surprised we're bottom 5 in Play Action,  with how effective we've been running the rock

Id like to see us do more PA for sure . 

[PoundingDog]

It depends on the defense as well. If the safeties refuse to come down to the box, then just keep running the ball. Those who do All-22 said Miami refuse to load up the box even when Cook was running successfully. Instead, they opted using 4 DTs at some snaps.

 

One complaints from me is the lack of successful runs behind Cook. Davis looked regressed this year. If we are able to run successfully with Cook and Davis, I think opposing DC may think twice about play for pass.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

1 hour ago, JerseyBills said:

Surprised we're bottom 5 in Play Action,  with how effective we've been running the rock

i have been speculating that we are saving PA.

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, JerseyBills said:

Surprised we're bottom 5 in Play Action,  with how effective we've been running the rock

 

I thought I heard/saw a stat last year saying Allen was super-effective in play action.  If so, yeah, it's a mystery why we don't do it more though maybe Miyagi is right.

[Rubes]

2 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

Surprised we're bottom 5 in Play Action,  with how effective we've been running the rock

I don’t know, Joe Marino in his podcast has been talking about how much more we’ve been using PA this year compared with previous years, and his numbers are higher than what is shown here. There’s probably some subjectivity to deciding what plays qualify as PA and differences in how different groups call it.

 

[GunnerBill]

Did Denver hire Ken Dorsey? 😂

[BigDingus]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Did Denver hire Ken Dorsey? 😂

 

Denver's results immediately stood out. 

 

All of those options only amount to 72.4% of their plays. There's still another 27.6% unaccounted for 😅

 

Meanwhile, those options account for 91.7% of the Bills plays. Denver is just out there calling plays via dice roll. 

 

But good for Washington - keeping the No Huddle offense alive!

Edited 12 hours ago by BigDingus

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

 

Denver's results immediately stood out. 

 

All of those options only amount to 72.4% of their plays. There's still another 27.6% unaccounted for 😅

 

Meanwhile, those options account for 91.7% of the Bills plays. Denver is just out there calling plays via dice roll. 

 

Sean Payton was once one of the most cutting edge play designers and play callers in football but this tells you two things:

 

1. It's easier to look like an innovator when your QB is a HOF talent; and 

2. Eventually the league passes everyone by. No matter how good you have been.

 

To be running just 26% motion in 2025 is unforgiveable.

[Buffalo716]

21 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Sean Payton was once one of the most cutting edge play designers and play callers in football but this tells you two things:

 

1. It's easier to look like an innovator when your QB is a HOF talent; and 

2. Eventually the league passes everyone by. No matter how good you have been.

 

To be running just 26% motion in 2025 is unforgiveable.

The game catches up to every single coach.. especially the X's and O's guys 

 

Someone is always going to reinvent the wheel in football 

 

Pure motivators like Pete Carroll can coast a little bit longer like a marv Levy.. terrific coach more of a players coach a motivator.. not necessarily a tactician 

 

Not that their Xs and O's are bad.. but Pete Carol doesn't rely on scheme.. he's a motivating developer

 

Peyton helped bring a spread WC coryell system to the NFL at a successful level.. but there's people who are pushing it past him now

Edited 11 hours ago by Buffalo716

[Richard Noggin]

4 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

Surprised we're bottom 5 in Play Action,  with how effective we've been running the rock

 

Has me worked up each week, how little Brady and/or Allen are staying a snap ahead of defenses with aggressive PA calls. Instead, the Bills appear to simply continue running the ball where others (ME) might leverage that rushing success and call a PA shot play WITHOUT LETTING THE DEFENSE CATCH UP FIRST AND SHUT DOWN THE RUN PLAY THAT WAS WORKING. 

 

3 hours ago, DJB said:

Id like to see us do more PA for sure . 

 

Preach.

 

3 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

i have been speculating that we are saving PA.

 

Ravens aren't worthy of unleashing PA against? That's bonkers, if true. 

 

3 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I thought I heard/saw a stat last year saying Allen was super-effective in play action.  If so, yeah, it's a mystery why we don't do it more though maybe Miyagi is right.

 

I thought I heard/saw a stat that QBs are mostly always "super-effective in play action." And with a QB who can move and has an elite arm, one should reasonably expect a high % of play action for a variety of reasons. 

 

19 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Sean Payton was once one of the most cutting edge play designers and play callers in football but this tells you two things:

 

1. It's easier to look like an innovator when your QB is a HOF talent; and 

2. Eventually the league passes everyone by. No matter how good you have been.

 

To be running just 26% motion in 2025 is unforgiveable.

 

Bills running a nice, high % of motion has been encouraging, seeing Allen use a variety of motions to diagnose and adjust pre-snap with more and more comfort and command. Combining that with PA calls on tendency-breaking down and distances would be cool. Taking shots when defenses are expecting runs should be something the Bills do once or twice a half imho. Gotta threaten ALL quadrants of the field, especially when your QB has one of the greatest arms of all time. 

 

[hondo in seattle]

6 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

 

 

I thought I heard/saw a stat that QBs are mostly always "super-effective in play action." And with a QB who can move and has an elite arm, one should reasonably expect a high % of play action for a variety of reasons. 

 

 

 

My point was that Josh was more effective in play-action than most QBs.   Therefore, you'd think we'd do more play-action than other teams, not less.  

 

Here's what I got from AI:

 

Josh Allen’s Play-Action Performance (2024)

• Completion Percentage: 70.1%
• Yards per Attempt: 9.2
• Touchdown Rate: 7.8%
• Passer Rating: 117.6

These numbers reflect his ability to leverage play-action for chunk gains and red zone efficiency. His passer rating on play-action was among the top five in the league.

 

NFL Average Play-Action Stats (2024)

• Completion Percentage: 65.3%
• Yards per Attempt: 8.1
• Touchdown Rate: 5.4%
• Passer Rating: 102.3

[Richard Noggin]

12 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

I thought I heard/saw a stat that QBs are mostly always "super-effective in play action." And with a QB who can move and has an elite arm, one should reasonably expect a high % of play action for a variety of reasons. 

 

 

3 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

My point was that Josh was more effective in play-action than most QBs.   Therefore, you'd think we'd do more play-action than other teams, not less.  

 

Here's what I got from AI:

 

Josh Allen’s Play-Action Performance (2024)

• Completion Percentage: 70.1%
• Yards per Attempt: 9.2
• Touchdown Rate: 7.8%
• Passer Rating: 117.6

These numbers reflect his ability to leverage play-action for chunk gains and red zone efficiency. His passer rating on play-action was among the top five in the league.

 

NFL Average Play-Action Stats (2024)

• Completion Percentage: 65.3%
• Yards per Attempt: 8.1
• Touchdown Rate: 5.4%
• Passer Rating: 102.3

 

My point was that I 100% agree with you. 

 

[Buffalo716]

46 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

My point was that Josh was more effective in play-action than most QBs.   Therefore, you'd think we'd do more play-action than other teams, not less.  

 

Here's what I got from AI:

 

Josh Allen’s Play-Action Performance (2024)

• Completion Percentage: 70.1%
• Yards per Attempt: 9.2
• Touchdown Rate: 7.8%
• Passer Rating: 117.6

These numbers reflect his ability to leverage play-action for chunk gains and red zone efficiency. His passer rating on play-action was among the top five in the league.

 

NFL Average Play-Action Stats (2024)

• Completion Percentage: 65.3%
• Yards per Attempt: 8.1
• Touchdown Rate: 5.4%
• Passer Rating: 102.3

There is a healthy balance especially when Josh is so effective.. you don't want to put too much on tape early 

 

As someone who evaluates high school  players and used to do college players I would say quarterback... Especially in college you will see some extremely high play action percentages 

 

And that just screams gimmick offense... If your team is running play action at a 35-40% clip, your stats are going to be highly effective 

 

But that doesn't really translate to the pro game... Where the hash marks actually condense the game 

 

So I think we're trying to build a nice true offense that could work in any situation.. the human tendency would be to go heavy play action with Josh Allen and waggles because his athleticism... But the higher the play action percentage, the more it becomes gimmicky... And the pros won't fall for it as easily 

 

In January and February it will get ramped up slightly.. but we are building a NFL offense where we can run and take three and five step drops and work the field horizontally... The boundaries and the seam...So all the play action attempts feel more organic.. our three tight end set is going to open up play action a lot when they want same with 12 personnel 

 

When it's all on the line, around 15% give or take a little bit more or less is probably where you want to be

 

 

Edited 10 hours ago by Buffalo716

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

7 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

 

 

 

Ravens aren't worthy of unleashing PA against? That's bonkers, if true. 

 

 

 

I actually think it makes sense to save play action until later games. Sort of lull the opponents even more, and make it more effective! I believe that’s sort of what we did last year, as I recall (ran a lot more PA later in the year). 

[MJS]

7 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

Has me worked up each week, how little Brady and/or Allen are staying a snap ahead of defenses with aggressive PA calls. Instead, the Bills appear to simply continue running the ball where others (ME) might leverage that rushing success and call a PA shot play WITHOUT LETTING THE DEFENSE CATCH UP FIRST AND SHUT DOWN THE RUN PLAY THAT WAS WORKING. 

 

 

Preach.

 

 

Ravens aren't worthy of unleashing PA against? That's bonkers, if true. 

 

 

I thought I heard/saw a stat that QBs are mostly always "super-effective in play action." And with a QB who can move and has an elite arm, one should reasonably expect a high % of play action for a variety of reasons. 

 

 

Bills running a nice, high % of motion has been encouraging, seeing Allen use a variety of motions to diagnose and adjust pre-snap with more and more comfort and command. Combining that with PA calls on tendency-breaking down and distances would be cool. Taking shots when defenses are expecting runs should be something the Bills do once or twice a half imho. Gotta threaten ALL quadrants of the field, especially when your QB has one of the greatest arms of all time. 

Didn't they use more play action against the Ravens and then less the next two games? I seem to remember Joe Marino being happy with the percentage of play action against the Ravens, but I could be wrong.

[Thurman#1]

12 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I thought I heard/saw a stat last year saying Allen was super-effective in play action.  If so, yeah, it's a mystery why we don't do it more though maybe Miyagi is right.

 

 

We are very effective in play action. But Josh doesn't like it. 

 

For it to meet the official definition of play action, the QB has to line up under center, turn around as he drops back and fakes to the back. That means he has to take his eyes away from downfield. Josh doesn't like doing that on pass plays.

[AKC]

51 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

We are very effective in play action. But Josh doesn't like it. 

 

For it to meet the official definition of play action, the QB has to line up under center, turn around as he drops back and fakes to the back. That means he has to take his eyes away from downfield. Josh doesn't like doing that on pass plays.

It is indeed difficult to lean on play action when you are leading the league in shotgun snaps.

[chris heff]

11 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

My point was that Josh was more effective in play-action than most QBs.   Therefore, you'd think we'd do more play-action than other teams, not less.  

 

Here's what I got from AI:

 

Josh Allen’s Play-Action Performance (2024)

• Completion Percentage: 70.1%
• Yards per Attempt: 9.2
• Touchdown Rate: 7.8%
• Passer Rating: 117.6

These numbers reflect his ability to leverage play-action for chunk gains and red zone efficiency. His passer rating on play-action was among the top five in the league.

 

NFL Average Play-Action Stats (2024)

• Completion Percentage: 65.3%
• Yards per Attempt: 8.1
• Touchdown Rate: 5.4%
• Passer Rating: 102.3

Who’s Al?