Bills Defense, will it get better as season goes on

[Captain_Quint]

16 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Joe Buscaglia brought up a pretty crazy stat from the Dolphins game - we allowed just 3.4 yards per play on 1st and 2nd down, but 7 yards per play on 3rd down. That is where the defensive improvement needs to come from, which unfortunately is the same story from last year.

 

It's hard to pin down the exact reasons behind the 3rd down issues, feels like it's a bit of everything. Some of the play calls were bad. Sometimes the coverage breaks down right away or fails to make a tackle short of the sticks. Sometimes the pass rush takes too long to make an impact or lets the QB break contain. They just need to get it figured out because being good on 1st/2nd down but poor on 3rd down has the added downside of letting the other team control time of possession.

 

There are some reasons to be optimistic about improvement there. Oliver will come back so him next to Bosa could make our pass rush potentially a legit impact unit. Ditto but less so for when Hoecht gets back. Benford hasn't been playing his best so there's reason to think he could get back to his level of play from last year. As far as Babich's issues, we're going on 2 years now where 3rd downs have been a problem under his leadership so it's hard to find reasons to feel optimistic about him. We'll see where it goes.

I just don't understand why they can't fix the 3rd down issues. If they are going to make it to a Super Bowl, it has to happen. 

At this point, just do the opposite of whatever Babich or McD is feeling and see what happens. I don't have the answers for what needs to happen. 

So many times there is no pressure. Other times, they send a blitz that doesn't get home and gets swallowed up by the line. 

 

More than any other issue, I think this has to be fixed to get to that final pinnacle of a Super Bowl. Otherwise, it will keep coming down to a roll of the dice if we ever get there with this crew. 

 

[PoundingDog]

Pressure is key. I watched last night's game and can't help to think the reason Lions made Jackson looked pedestrian is the pressure they were able to put on him - it is the same when Leslie Frazier (when he was Bills DC) blitzed Jackson which at the time seemed like a crazy idea with Lamar's legs. Look back now the issue of the Bills defense dealing with Lamar and Tua, I will say the finger points directly at pressure on QB. The good thing is we spent big in DL. The bad things is with injuries, suspensions, and rookies learning, we got little return so far.

[HamptonBillsfan]

22 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yup, Hoecth is better than a lot of people realize.  Its like when signed Micah Hyde and so many here didn't think much of it.  I kept saying Hyde was a lot better than people think and GB fans were upset they lost him.  I feel similar with Hoecht, and they are going to love and use his versatility a lot here.  He may not put up gaudy stats given he will be part of a rotation, but I suspect people are not going to be starting threads like "Is Hoecth even playing" because they haven't seen or felt his impact.  

 

I think what a lot of people are overlooking with the defensive concerns (not that the concerns aren't valid, because they have had some issues) - is that we have been without our #1 draft pick and critical speed in our secondary so far, Oliver and Milano have missed games, and we have been without our 2 FA's on suspension, both of which will be critical rotational guys and good players for this team.  Now add in rookies have had to drink from the fire hose a bit to start the season due to suspensions and injuries upfront, and its not hard to see where potential improvement can come from as the season goes on.

 

The D is giving up 15 ppg since getting dog walked 3 1/2 quarters against Balt.  And they had some 3rd down issues against a desperate Miami team.  But, still its 15 PPG against 2 divisional opponents, one of which (Jets) put up a ton of points the week before the played us, and the other is what is supposed to be powerhouse offense loaded with speed.  I don't personally think much of the Jets, but I mean GB just lost to the Browns this week, KC struggled to do much against the Giants until the Giants let Russel Wilson just lose the game for them, etc.  Bills are handling their business and without FIVE key defensive players, 2 of which are amongst their best players, 2 of which were key FA signigns, and the other our top overall draft pick.  

 

Dont get me wrong, I am in a need to see it to believe mode with the D come playoff time.  But I am only pointing out reasons for optimism this year.  Now add in that guys like Bosa and Walker are looking like guys capable of making that extra 1 or 2 stops a game that have been our kryptonite for not having in most of our playoff exits, especially the last 3 KC losses which were all games we lost by 1 score.  

Your analysis is always impressive pertaining to personnel. Reasons for optimism abound especially with Walker and Sanders only getting better and the PED boys coming soon. My only trepidation is that Rousseau,Bishop and Hairston are huge question marks for different reasons. Hairston will need 3 or 4 games to get up to speed. Rousseau seems like getting paid was a big part of his motivation and Bishop has been ineffective so far. Tre White is good depth but he will struggle against good receivers like Waddle. The secondary will be exposed if we can’t pressure the QB better. Hopefully we will see more from these guys.

[HappyDays]

18 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

I try not to take TOO much stock in early season trends, especially with a weird divisional thursday game among the first 3 games. 

 

I'd be more open to this argument if the problem wasn't a continuation of something that persisted for the whole season last year. At a certain point it's no longer something you can excuse away, it is a legit trend that shows no signs of getting better.

 

Could it get better? Of course, I don't think there is anything inherent to our defensive roster that means we are doomed to a high 3rd down conversion rate. At this point I would even be okay with just getting to average in that area. But we're past the point of believing it will get better. They have to show measurable and consistent improvement or it will remain a concern.

 

What I really didn't like about the Miami game in particular is there were at least a couple times where Babich directly was the reason for the failure. There was a 3rd down where Benford was somehow the only DB in the area of two WRs along the left sideline and Tua just easily threw to the one he wasn't covering. The end of 1st half sequence in particular was awful for Babich - I blame him personally for the Dolphins last 3rd down conversion on that drive and for Waddle's TD. That can't happen. Your DC can't be the primary reason the opponent puts 7 points on the scoreboard. And I'm not being nitpicky with these examples, it's not like he called a blitz and the QB beat the blitz and you just have to tip your cap, these are situations where the defense was just not in any kind of position to even have a chance of stopping the play.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'd be more open to this argument if the problem wasn't a continuation of something that persisted for the whole season last year. At a certain point it's no longer something you can excuse away, it is a legit trend that shows no signs of getting better.

 

Could it get better? Of course, I don't think there is anything inherent to our defensive roster that means we are doomed to a high 3rd down conversion rate. At this point I would even be okay with just getting to average in that area. But we're past the point of believing it will get better. They have to show measurable and consistent improvement or it will remain a concern.

 

What I really didn't like about the Miami game in particular is there were at least a couple times where Babich directly was the reason for the failure. There was a 3rd down where Benford was somehow the only DB in the area of two WRs along the left sideline and Tua just easily threw to the one he wasn't covering. The end of 1st half sequence in particular was awful for Babich - I blame him personally for the Dolphins last 3rd down conversion on that drive and for Waddle's TD. That can't happen. Your DC can't be the primary reason the opponent puts 7 points on the scoreboard. And I'm not being nitpicky with these examples, it's not like he called a blitz and the QB beat the blitz and you just have to tip your cap, these are situations where the defense was just not in any kind of position to even have a chance of stopping the play.

 

I was at the game, so admittedly i was more frustrated than able to really evaluate what was causing the issues.  Requiring 10 3rd down conversions, and a 4th down conversion to only score 21 points is part of the complimentary football argument though.  A complete and utter lack of big plays or explosives killed the dolphins in this one.  

23 minutes ago, Captain_Quint said:

I just don't understand why they can't fix the 3rd down issues. If they are going to make it to a Super Bowl, it has to happen. 

At this point, just do the opposite of whatever Babich or McD is feeling and see what happens. I don't have the answers for what needs to happen. 

So many times there is no pressure. Other times, they send a blitz that doesn't get home and gets swallowed up by the line. 

 

More than any other issue, I think this has to be fixed to get to that final pinnacle of a Super Bowl. Otherwise, it will keep coming down to a roll of the dice if we ever get there with this crew. 

 

I hate thursday football games, and i'm usually happy walking out with a win knowing neither team will look particularly good.  I'd imagine missing 4 contributors/starters on the front 7 definitely doesn't help - Milano, Oliver, Hoecht, and Ogunjobi.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

3rd down defense is essentially the same as last year, 44.39% last year to 45.00% this year. But it's only that low because we held the Jets to 0 for 11. Against the Ravens and Dolphins combined it was 61.53%... So the biggest problem from last year appears to have gotten, shockingly, even worse. I know they have instituted some schematic changes to the defense and I worry that they only made those changes for the sake of change without a real plan in mind. This is by far the biggest concern moving forward and we probably won't get real clarity on if it's getting better until after the bye week.

 

Yea I agree. I think some of the third down play calling and the concepts on those downs against Miami in particular were bonkers. I don't have a ton of trust in Bobby Babich. There is an Assistant Head Coach out on the Pacific Coast Id take back in a HEARTBEAT. 

[balln]

Another thing I see and I know they’re trying to play more man-to-man. It just looks like a fish out of water sometimes. These third and 5/3 and 10 if you’re running man-to-man. They have to be up at the line the defensive backs and jamming them and making contact Significantly so up until 5 yards. We just let them run off the line free release. Let them run wherever they wanna go.

 

otherwise don’t run it! Continue your zones and hopefully you get qb to clutch and can get a sack or a bad throw to 2 and 3 read

[tigerthelion]

23 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I agree. I think some of the third down play calling and the concepts on those downs against Miami in particular were bonkers. I don't have a ton of trust in Bobby Babich. There is an Assistant Head Coach out on the Pacific Coast Id take back in a HEARTBEAT. 

Seems like the Bills have been terrible with 3rd down defense for years.  Was it better under Leslie Frazier?  I'd have to do some digging. I know I have seen you with some complimentary posts about Frazier before.  Maybe he wasn't the problem after all.  Something has gotta give.  Teams just can't convert 3rd downs at will, because anything other than pretty much a perfect game on offense likely won't make up for that. 

[GunnerBill]

47 minutes ago, tigerthelion said:

Seems like the Bills have been terrible with 3rd down defense for years.  Was it better under Leslie Frazier?  I'd have to do some digging. I know I have seen you with some complimentary posts about Frazier before.  Maybe he wasn't the problem after all.  Something has gotta give.  Teams just can't convert 3rd downs at will, because anything other than pretty much a perfect game on offense likely won't make up for that. 

 

Yes. It was a LOT better under Frazier.

 

Frazier

2017 - 17th

2018 - 8th

2019 - 7th

2020 - 13th

2021 - 1st

2022 - 7th

 

McDermott

2023 - 19th

 

Babich

2024 - 29th

2025 (incomplete) - 23rd

 

 

It's true that I don't think the talent not is what it was at Leslie's peak here... but Frazier was never the problem. There are just a bunch of fans who want blitz happy defenses and loads of man coverage and Leslie is never gonna give you that. But he is a really good DC and I guarantee even with this group he'd be performing a lot better.

[tigerthelion]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yes. It was a LOT better under Frazier.

 

Frazier

2017 - 17th

2018 - 8th

2019 - 7th

2020 - 13th

2021 - 1st

2022 - 7th

 

McDermott

2023 - 19th

 

Babich

2024 - 29th

2025 (incomplete) - 23rd

 

 

It's true that I don't think the talent not is what it was at Leslie's peak here... but Frazier was never the problem. There are just a bunch of fans who want blitz happy defenses and loads of man coverage and Leslie is never gonna give you that. But he is a really good DC and I guarantee even with this group he'd be performing a lot better.

Interesting stuff.  I was one of those fans, I would say, that you are describing.  Having seen what seems like more man coverage over the last year or so not result in a better defense, I think I may have sold Frazier short.    I always wanted the Bills to play more press and not be off the ball so much in coverage.  I still kind of do, but overall, I don't know exactly what to think anymore. I thought that getting rid of Frazier would result in a better, more aggressive and effective defense.   Seems I was wrong in that assumption.    I still was underwhelmed with what I saw in the defense in the playoffs under Frazier for the most part, though.   So, like I said, I am confused as ever about how to turn this defense around and what defense I want for the Bills. 

Edited September 23 by tigerthelion

[GASabresIUFan]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yes. It was a LOT better under Frazier.

 

Frazier

2017 - 17th

2018 - 8th

2019 - 7th

2020 - 13th

2021 - 1st

2022 - 7th

 

McDermott

2023 - 19th

 

Babich

2024 - 29th

2025 (incomplete) - 23rd

 

 

It's true that I don't think the talent not is what it was at Leslie's peak here... but Frazier was never the problem. There are just a bunch of fans who want blitz happy defenses and loads of man coverage and Leslie is never gonna give you that. But he is a really good DC and I guarantee even with this group he'd be performing a lot better.

I think this is a personnel issue.  

 

At Frazier's peek he has White, Hyde and Poyer in their primes plus a young Taron Johnson.

 

Now we have Rapp, an aging an oft injured White, 2nd year player in Bishop, an aging Taron Jonson and Benford.  We need better speed and outside of Benford, better coverage skills in the secondary.

Edited September 23 by GASabresIUFan

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, HamptonBillsfan said:

Your analysis is always impressive pertaining to personnel. Reasons for optimism abound especially with Walker and Sanders only getting better and the PED boys coming soon. My only trepidation is that Rousseau,Bishop and Hairston are huge question marks for different reasons. Hairston will need 3 or 4 games to get up to speed. Rousseau seems like getting paid was a big part of his motivation and Bishop has been ineffective so far. Tre White is good depth but he will struggle against good receivers like Waddle. The secondary will be exposed if we can’t pressure the QB better. Hopefully we will see more from these guys.

 

Thanks for the kind words

 

We don't have a lot to worry about in the regular season.  Our biggest threats coming in to the #1 seed were KC and Balt and we currently have a 2 game lead on KC who struggled to beat the lowly Giants and who we have beaten 3 or 4 straight times in the regular season - and now essentially a 3 game lead on Baltimore with us having the tie breaker.  So with Hairston, I agree he will need some games to get up to speed, but barring any set backs, he should be more ready to contribute come playoff time when we need him more.

 

On Groot - I honestly think people are a little too down on Groot right now.  Since the bad start for 3 1/2 quarters week 1, our Defense is only giving up 15 PPG while missing Oliver, Milano, Hairston, and our PED guys.  Thats 2 of our best players, our first round draft pick, and 2 key rotational players in our front 7 that will likely play relevant minutes once back from PED's.  We are only 3 games in with a lot of new pieces or missing pieces on the defense.  

 

With Cole, he still has a lot to prove, but he also has had very little in game experience coming into the season.  So it may take him some time to start to find his way and improve his play.  At least he was better the last couple games (albeit against lower competition) than he was week 1 or even the preseason.  Still long way to go though, but the hope is with more on field time and getting the guys back up front, that he can ascend more as the season goes on.  

 

And yeah, our front 7 needs to be more impactful to help out the secondary.  And I do think there is reason to be optimistic, again missing 4 guys up front in Oliver, Milano, and the PED goons.  And 2 of the guys playing a lot are rookies, so by default they should ascend through more experience more and Walker is already making some impressive plays out there too.  

 

Overall, I am in the optimistic camp - but more cautiously optimistic, I still want to see the week to week improvements and see them start to have dominant stretches like the Lions did in the 4th quarter against the Ravens.  

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I think this is a personnel issue.  

 

At Frazier's peek he has White, Hyde and Poyer in their primes plus a young Taron Johnson.

 

Now we have Rapp, an aging an oft injured White, 2nd year player in Bishop, an aging Taron Jonson and Benford.  We need better speed and outside of Benford, better coverage skills in the secondary.

 

The personnel plays in. I acknowledge that. But Leslie Frazier is just a darn good football coach. He isn't flashy. He doesn't talk himself up. But he is super smart and he can coach football.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

29 minutes ago, tigerthelion said:

Interesting stuff.  I was one of those fans, I would say, that you are describing.  Having seen what seems like more man coverage over the last year or so not result in a better defense, I think I may have sold Frazier short.    I always wanted the Bills to play more press and not be off the ball so much in coverage.  I still kind of do, but overall, I don't know exactly what to think anymore. I thought that getting rid of Frazier would result in a better, more aggressive and effective defense.   Seems I was wrong in that assumption.    I still was underwhelmed with what I saw in the defense in the playoffs under Frazier for the most part, though.   So, like I said, I am confused as ever about how to turn this defense around and what defense I want for the Bills. 

If you want to play press and more man you need to have the personnel. You can't just force it!

[HamptonBillsfan]

21 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Thanks for the kind words

 

We don't have a lot to worry about in the regular season.  Our biggest threats coming in to the #1 seed were KC and Balt and we currently have a 2 game lead on KC who struggled to beat the lowly Giants and who we have beaten 3 or 4 straight times in the regular season - and now essentially a 3 game lead on Baltimore with us having the tie breaker.  So with Hairston, I agree he will need some games to get up to speed, but barring any set backs, he should be more ready to contribute come playoff time when we need him more.

 

On Groot - I honestly think people are a little too down on Groot right now.  Since the bad start for 3 1/2 quarters week 1, our Defense is only giving up 15 PPG while missing Oliver, Milano, Hairston, and our PED guys.  Thats 2 of our best players, our first round draft pick, and 2 key rotational players in our front 7 that will likely play relevant minutes once back from PED's.  We are only 3 games in with a lot of new pieces or missing pieces on the defense.  

 

With Cole, he still has a lot to prove, but he also has had very little in game experience coming into the season.  So it may take him some time to start to find his way and improve his play.  At least he was better the last couple games (albeit against lower competition) than he was week 1 or even the preseason.  Still long way to go though, but the hope is with more on field time and getting the guys back up front, that he can ascend more as the season goes on.  

 

And yeah, our front 7 needs to be more impactful to help out the secondary.  And I do think there is reason to be optimistic, again missing 4 guys up front in Oliver, Milano, and the PED goons.  And 2 of the guys playing a lot are rookies, so by default they should ascend through more experience more and Walker is already making some impressive plays out there too.  

 

Overall, I am in the optimistic camp - but more cautiously optimistic, I still want to see the week to week improvements and see them start to have dominant stretches like the Lions did in the 4th quarter against the Ravens.  

Can’t disagree with any of that. I’d like to get your thoughts on the team in 3 or 4 weeks just before the trade deadline. I feel like they need to bolster that secondary with another quality corner. I’d also like to see more of Hancock and Strong.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, HamptonBillsfan said:

Can’t disagree with any of that. I’d like to get your thoughts on the team in 3 or 4 weeks just before the trade deadline. I feel like they need to bolster that secondary with another quality corner. I’d also like to see more of Hancock and Strong.

 

Yeah I am also curious to what to think 3-4 weeks down the road and really interested to see how this unit starts to come together when we get our young guys more experience (like Bishop and our rookie class), our PED guys into the rotation, and of course our injured guys back.  

 

The 2 games I got my eye on are KC and the Bucs game as measuring sticks on our progress.  

[SinatraSinger]

I think that all the problems in the secondary go away if they can start to generate a pass rush, and/or some penetration into the backfield.  I am hopefull that when the suspended players can return this will help.  

[billsfan89]

28 minutes ago, SinatraSinger said:

I think that all the problems in the secondary go away if they can start to generate a pass rush, and/or some penetration into the backfield.  I am hopefull that when the suspended players can return this will help.  

 

I also wonder if getting Mad Max back adding some speed at corner will help. 

[Don Otreply]

On 9/22/2025 at 2:02 PM, GunnerBill said:

I am a bit of a downer on this defense. I think if Hairston can get healthy and be an impact guy and we can get more of the best version of Joey Bosa, and Michael Hoecht can add something and we can get and keep Ed Oliver healthy then maybe it turns a corner. 

 

But I dunno. I just don't feel like this group has the talent of a top defense.

Well, being that the defenses third down deficiencies go back seven seasons, and we are all still unimpressed by our coaching in this regard, maybe, just maybe changing the type of player we draft, and adjusting the scheme to address the on going shortcomings is in order…,  yes I know that is never going to happen, but one can dream..,, 🤣

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yes. It was a LOT better under Frazier.

 

Frazier

2017 - 17th

2018 - 8th

2019 - 7th

2020 - 13th

2021 - 1st

2022 - 7th

 

McDermott

2023 - 19th

 

Babich

2024 - 29th

2025 (incomplete) - 23rd

 

 

It's true that I don't think the talent not is what it was at Leslie's peak here... but Frazier was never the problem. There are just a bunch of fans who want blitz happy defenses and loads of man coverage and Leslie is never gonna give you that. But he is a really good DC and I guarantee even with this group he'd be performing a lot better.

Not in the postseason, Frazier screwed the pooch with regularity in the post season,  ( 13’)  for instance, he was the DC, so the buck stops at his clipboard, 

[dayman]

We got faster at CB. Need to get it out there.