Do The Bills Have A Passing Game Problem?

[eball]

No

[SoTier]

2 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Yep and I personally disagree with the overall philosophy. Trying to be a power run team while minimizing risk wouldn't be the path I would take when a unicorn like Josh Allen is your QB

 

Is your "floor" going to be a lot better? Absolutely as you're not going to have multi turnover games that cost you.

 

But the ceiling is also going to be limited. We saw it in last years playoffs, especially against Baltimore

 

The Bills beat the Ravens in the playoffs.   The Bills beat the Ravens on opening night.    Beane and McDermott know what the hell they're doing.   Deal with it.

[BillsFan130]

2 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

The Bills beat the Ravens in the playoffs.   The Bills beat the Ravens on opening night.    Beane and McDermott know what the hell they're doing.   Deal with it.

The ravens beat themselves.  I think even if you ask McDermott he would admit that.

Bills offence was awful that night

[Comebackkid]

36 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Yep and I personally disagree with the overall philosophy. Trying to be a power run team while minimizing risk wouldn't be the path I would take when a unicorn like Josh Allen is your QB

 

Is your "floor" going to be a lot better? Absolutely as you're not going to have multi turnover games that cost you.

 

But the ceiling is also going to be limited. We saw it in last years playoffs, especially against Baltimore

i thought we did alright against balt last year, but against Kc the offense got bogged down to nowhereville.   KC basically did a better job of what 

Miami was doing and we had zero answers as the game went on. 

6 hours ago, ***** said:

Is Palmer on the team? Lol

like all the receivers..it depends which week it is.   

[Matt_In_NH]

48 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Yep and I personally disagree with the overall philosophy. Trying to be a power run team while minimizing risk wouldn't be the path I would take when a unicorn like Josh Allen is your QB

 

Is your "floor" going to be a lot better? Absolutely as you're not going to have multi turnover games that cost you.

 

But the ceiling is also going to be limited. We saw it in last years playoffs, especially against Baltimore

Their problem in the playoffs was not on offense.   Not saying the offense was perfect but every team could get stop vs the chiefs except the bills.  

[BillsFan130]

1 minute ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Their problem in the playoffs was not on offense.   Not saying the offense was perfect but every team could get stop vs the chiefs except the bills.  

Agreed that the problem against the chiefs wasn't the offence.

 

But against Baltimore it was, as it took 3 turnovers and huge dropped passes by Baltimore to win by 2 points . The bills offence could not move the ball, especially in the 2nd half 

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, gobills404 said:

Palmer was a good intermediate to deep threat for the Chargers last year and he’s been getting good separation so far this year. I’m hoping a lot the concerns about the downfield passing game will be quelled as he builds more and more chemistry with Josh throughout the season.

 

 

The positive of Palmer here is erased by confirmation that Keon Coleman is still trying to find a way to separate from a lamppost.

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

Yep and I personally disagree with the overall philosophy. Trying to be a power run team while minimizing risk wouldn't be the path I would take when a unicorn like Josh Allen is your QB

 

Is your "floor" going to be a lot better? Absolutely as you're not going to have multi turnover games that cost you.

 

But the ceiling is also going to be limited. We saw it in last years playoffs, especially against Baltimore

 

It's also not the philosophy I would choose. But it starts as @Kirby Jackson has laid out with talent acquisition. Because to be the more expansive, downfield passing version of the Bills you are going to need more explosiveness outside. That isn't Mack Hollins, or Keon Coleman or even for all of his skills Khalil Shakir, or by drafting a pass catching tight end in round one like Dalton Kincaid. Even Josh Palmer I said when we signed him is like the mininum standard attempt at doing it. He was like acceptable baseline. 

 

With the current talent mix on this roster they are playing the right kind of offense and they are staying aggressive enough within that system that with Josh's skillset it is allowing them to score 30 per game. Which is no mean feat. 

 

But if I was building this roster I'd have put a higher priority on getting explosive pass catchers. I wanted to draft Christian Watson. I wanted to trade up for Jordan Addison. I wanted to trade up for Brian Thomas Jnr. What I did not want our offensive draft capital spent on was a tight end and a non-separating big body receiver. But that is what we got.

[Richard Noggin]

On 9/19/2025 at 4:30 AM, folz said:

 

I'll start with the last bolded statement first. Yes, I totally agree, when the Miami CB went out, the guy replacing him was out on an island to the left. I thought for sure that Brady and Allen would attack that corner with a pass, rather than run Jimbo for like 2 yards. Agreed...missed opportunity there. That whole sequence from the refs giving Hill the first down (and the Bills not challenging it), to the two really bad Bills red zone plays and then missed kick by Prater, and then the Dolphins next TD where it looked like Tre just conceded the TD, was all very strange and changed the game from a total blowout to a tight-ish game. Just weird. But again, I agree, the Bills should have put this game away in the second quarter. It was just a really strange series of events.

 

To the other bolded statement, yes, the Miami receivers are fast, and Tyreek is still a great player, so I wouldn't be surprised if their separation is better on a more consistent basis. But I don't think you can make the inference you did above regarding our D-line (sacks) or receivers (separation) tonight. Tua was getting the ball out of his hands in 3 seconds or less. The majority of his passes (it was 11 passes at one point, not sure if that was the final tally) were behind the line of scrimmage tonight (screens, etc). So, they had very few longer developing plays that would involve a pass rush or even needing to get separation.

 

And I think there are a few things going on with the vertical game. One, we are a much more overall efficient offense than we used to be, with a HC and OC that want a balanced attack. So, we run the ball a lot more than we used to (and throw to the backs out of the backfield). Our TEs have become a big part of our game, and though we have seen Kincaid get vertical (and Hawes too now), generally the TE game will not be that far downfield. And the league has changed since 2020-2021. Defenses learned to slow down pass-happy offenses like the Bills and Chiefs with cover zero, etc. Keep everything in front of you. That is how teams play the Bills now. So, we started taking the underneath stuff and just methodically marching down the field (kind of like the old New England offense---game plan to your opponent and take what the defense gives you without making any mistakes). Not as sexy, but effective. So, being opponent-specific, why would we want to throw a lot of deep balls against the Jets or the Dolphins? They are lower percentage plays with a higher percentage for a turnover. Our coaches knew we could out-muscle these teams and let them make the mistakes (which they did). We are a different team than we were in 2020-2022. We aren't pass first, pass often. We are balanced and disciplined.

 

I just think we need to be patient at this point. When they need to pass or if a defense say focuses on the run and leaves things open downfield, I'm sure the Bills will attack that. I just don't think we have run that many routes downfield yet because we haven't really needed to in these last two games. If we had been attempting a downfield game and we weren't being successful, then I might worry, we just haven't needed to do it much yet. Doesn't mean we can't, we just haven't needed to. I mean we all love seeing bombs down the field, but if they aren't really needed in a particular game, why chance them. I don't feel like I've seen Josh really trying to push the ball downfield a lot but not being able to (a few plays maybe). He's usually hitting something over the middle, at the sticks, or underneath.

 

Plus, we have seen Shakir and Coleman catch deep balls before. We know Coleman is good at 50/50 balls and high-pointing the ball. We have some speed: Samuel 4.31, Moore 4.35, Shakir 4.43. So, it basically comes down to some worry that we don't have speed on the outside (Coleman and Palmer), that true #1 X receiver once again. Maybe, but let's worry about that when we see it not working, not when we are choosing not to do it for obvious reasons. Coleman had that one drop tonight, but has anyone really been upset at how Coleman and Palmer have played thus far? In the Baltimore game, they combined for 13 receptions for 173 yards and a TD. Josh threw 7 passes in that game over 20 yards (26, 22, 51, 21, 29, 32, 25, plus the deep ball to Palmer that drew the pass interference call). And Josh has a ton of other weapons as well...he's hitting 9 different guys per game. I really don't think we have anything to worry about.

 

Lots of good stuff in here. However, the section I emboldened and enlarged is really dissonant. "Cover zero" is not a way to "keep everything in front of you." AT ALL. So I agree that teams are throwing all kinds of aggressive defensive schemes at the Bills offense, including cover zero pressure packages that are the OPPOSITE, philosophically, of backing off and ensuring the offense operates underneath. Those 2-deep shells we started to see often a few years ago are still prevalent, but are by no means the primary way defenses play the Bills, and especially 6- and 7-man blitzes are not at all similar to those previous deep "shell" coverages designed to put a lid on deep passing attacks. 

 

Defenses are utilizing a variety of approaches, including ultra aggressive looks that leave one or zero deep zone defenders. The Bills/Allen have chosen thus far to NOT challenge these looks with passes over the top. I don't disagree that the Bills have some WRs who COULD get behind such aggressive defensive looks, to be fair. But for whatever reason, aggressive man coverage is effectively discouraging any on-time, deep/intermediate passing game. 

 

[Buffalo716]

3 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

The ravens beat themselves.  I think even if you ask McDermott he would admit that.

Bills offence was awful that night

We out gained the Ravens 

 

I don't care if we went berserk with 4 minutes left after 60 minutes we had more yards 

 

[BananaB]

2 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

Agreed that the problem against the chiefs wasn't the offence.

 

But against Baltimore it was, as it took 3 turnovers and huge dropped passes by Baltimore to win by 2 points . The bills offence could not move the ball, especially in the 2nd half 

From what I remember both were kind of a problem. Bills punted a fair amount but had a couple long drives and never cashed in on every turnover. Think they might of got 10 points off turnovers. Not their best showing. Despite the Ds turnovers they never forced a punt and must of gave up about 400 yards to the Ravens. They also gave up a 90 yard drive in the final 5 minutes that looked like a cake walk. And they got beat on the 2 pt conversion, lucky for them Ingram dropped the ball. 

Edited September 21 by BananaB

[Maine-iac]

52 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It's also not the philosophy I would choose. But it starts as @Kirby Jackson has laid out with talent acquisition. Because to be the more expansive, downfield passing version of the Bills you are going to need more explosiveness outside. That isn't Mack Hollins, or Keon Coleman or even for all of his skills Khalil Shakir, or by drafting a pass catching tight end in round one like Dalton Kincaid. Even Josh Palmer I said when we signed him is like the mininum standard attempt at doing it. He was like acceptable baseline. 

 

With the current talent mix on this roster they are playing the right kind of offense and they are staying aggressive enough within that system that with Josh's skillset it is allowing them to score 30 per game. Which is no mean feat. 

 

But if I was building this roster I'd have put a higher priority on getting explosive pass catchers. I wanted to draft Christian Watson. I wanted to trade up for Jordan Addison. I wanted to trade up for Brian Thomas Jnr. What I did not want our offensive draft capital spent on was a tight end and a non-separating big body receiver. But that is what we got.

This might sound like I'm patronizing someone here but it's not what I'm trying to do.  I was at the Miami game and what I couldn't understand is with Jack Jones and Douglas at corner how come we weren't going after them.  I get it that Palmer and Coleman aren't everyone's cup of tea but they should be able to work those two CB's and especially if Miami goes single high to stop the running game.  Truth is I think since we've gone to more of a take the profit type of passing game I think we just don't force things as much.  I swear i saw open guys downfield at times.  I think we could get the ball outside more if we needed to.  I think we're not doing it because we don't need to.  First throw at Coleman he probably has it but get's held so we get the yards from the PI penalty.  They actually ran a slant to him and even with a lot of contact he made the catch.  I just think at this point Allen's numbers are on point to be as good or better than last years (MVP numbers) so why would they change anything and force things outside?  The Baltimore game is an example of having to force things outside and when they needed to they did.  I'm hoping that the ability is there they're just putting it behind the "break in case of emergency" glass.

[Chandler#81]

🤔 well, I have a passing gas problem..

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Maine-iac said:

This might sound like I'm patronizing someone here but it's not what I'm trying to do.  I was at the Miami game and what I couldn't understand is with Jack Jones and Douglas at corner how come we weren't going after them.  I get it that Palmer and Coleman aren't everyone's cup of tea but they should be able to work those two CB's and especially if Miami goes single high to stop the running game.  Truth is I think since we've gone to more of a take the profit type of passing game I think we just don't force things as much.  I swear i saw open guys downfield at times.  I think we could get the ball outside more if we needed to.  I think we're not doing it because we don't need to.  First throw at Coleman he probably has it but get's held so we get the yards from the PI penalty.  They actually ran a slant to him and even with a lot of contact he made the catch.  I just think at this point Allen's numbers are on point to be as good or better than last years (MVP numbers) so why would they change anything and force things outside?  The Baltimore game is an example of having to force things outside and when they needed to they did.  I'm hoping that the ability is there they're just putting it behind the "break in case of emergency" glass.

 

They could only force things late against the Ravens because they softened up to coverage. 

 

On Thursday watching in real time I saw two plays where they definitely had deeper shots called and Josh had time aned eventually decided he didn't like them and came off it underneath to check downs. I haven't all22 reviewed those two plays yet, but I strongly suspect nobody was open. 

 

The one point you allude to that does slightly concern me is whether a bit of the gamer has been coached out of Josh in the sense that he is always thinking "safe option" until the game script dictates he doesn't. The thing that makes me think that is the Trubisky pass vs the Jets. He comes in cold, off the bench and throws an aggressive dime. I don't particularly have a stack of evidence to support that theory but that Trubisky play does make me wonder.

 

Primarly though we don't have the ability at outside receiver. That to me remains this team's biggest limitation.

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They could only force things late against the Ravens because they softened up to coverage. 

 

On Thursday watching in real time I saw two plays where they definitely had deeper shots called and Josh had time aned eventually decided he didn't like them and came off it underneath to check downs. I haven't all22 reviewed those two plays yet, but I strongly suspect nobody was open. 

 

The one point you allude to that does slightly concern me is whether a bit of the gamer has been coached out of Josh in the sense that he is always thinking "safe option" until the game script dictates he doesn't. The thing that makes me think that is the Trubisky pass vs the Jets. He comes in cold, off the bench and throws an aggressive dime. I don't particularly have a stack of evidence to support that theory but that Trubisky play does make me wonder.

 

Primarly though we don't have the ability at outside receiver. That to me remains this team's biggest limitation.

FWIW, my whole section was screaming, “someone get open!!” Lol, it wasn’t just me. Those guys were blanketed. 
 

It hasn’t burned them (yet). Thoughts on DJ Moore? His name is starting to show in some rumors. He feels like a guy that would absolutely help. He beats man coverage consistently. Moore feels like a rich man’s Shakir. I’d sign up for that (or a plethora of other guys).

[GunnerBill]

56 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

FWIW, my whole section was screaming, “someone get open!!” Lol, it wasn’t just me. Those guys were blanketed. 
 

It hasn’t burned them (yet). Thoughts on DJ Moore? His name is starting to show in some rumors. He feels like a guy that would absolutely help. He beats man coverage consistently. Moore feels like a rich man’s Shakir. I’d sign up for that (or a plethora of other guys).

 

I think DJ can play more outside than Shakir. I think of him as an outside guy who can play inside. I'd be open to it price depending. 

[Matt_In_NH]

7 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

Agreed that the problem against the chiefs wasn't the offence.

 

But against Baltimore it was, as it took 3 turnovers and huge dropped passes by Baltimore to win by 2 points . The bills offence could not move the ball, especially in the 2nd half 

You found a counter example of when one of the best offenses struggled for half a game.  Congrats.  That must be where the improvement is needed 

[BillsFan130]

1 hour ago, Matt_In_NH said:

You found a counter example of when one of the best offenses struggled for half a game.  Congrats.  That must be where the improvement is needed 

It was actually the full game outside of the 1st drive.

 

And ya I'm going to mostly judge them what they do in the playoffs, not the regular season.

 

The "floor" will always be higher with the power game approach. It's the "ceiling" I'm worried about ,

and we saw the limitations first hand in the playoffs last year

7 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

We out gained the Ravens 

 

I don't care if we went berserk with 4 minutes left after 60 minutes we had more yards 

 

I was referring to the playoff game last year against them 

Edited September 21 by BillsFan130

[Matt_In_NH]

1 hour ago, BillsFan130 said:

It was actually the full game outside of the 1st drive.

 

And ya I'm going to mostly judge them what they do in the playoffs, not the regular season.

 

The "floor" will always be higher with the power game approach. It's the "ceiling" I'm worried about ,

and we saw the limitations first hand in the playoffs last year

The game when they ran for 147 yards and three tds while scoring 27 points on a very good defense?   Understood it was not the best offensive performance but it’s not like they were just shut down.  No turnovers while scoring 27 points is a good formula to win playoff games even though that has not worked vs the chiefs.    Playoff wins can be messy. I would ask for examples of great offenses you can list and then go look at playoff logs over years.  I contend your assertion the ceiling is just higher with a pass happy approach is not necessarily true.  Each game is unique and you need to gameplan vs what they are trying to do against you.   It might not be as fun or sexy but it can be an overall better approach to control the game with their approaxh. It’s not like they don’t use Josh Allen, it’s not just power run all the time. 

[BillsFan130]

25 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

The game when they ran for 147 yards and three tds while scoring 27 points on a very good defense?   Understood it was not the best offensive performance but it’s not like they were just shut down.  No turnovers while scoring 27 points is a good formula to win playoff games even though that has not worked vs the chiefs.    Playoff wins can be messy. I would ask for examples of great offenses you can list and then go look at playoff logs over years.  I contend your assertion the ceiling is just higher with a pass happy approach is not necessarily true.  Each game is unique and you need to gameplan vs what they are trying to do against you.   It might not be as fun or sexy but it can be an overall better approach to control the game with their approaxh. It’s not like they don’t use Josh Allen, it’s not just power run all the time. 

So you're going to look at 27 points and just conclude the offence was good? Defence didn't force 3 turnovers to help them on the plus side of the field to set up those points right? lol.. 

 

The peak bills ceiling  to me for offence was 2021. And it was more pass happy. They had the chiefs beat in arrowhead with 36 points until the defensive and coaching meltdown.

For some reason the bills wanted to change to more ball control , limit mistakes and to run the ball more with heavy sets. Where in reality if the defence was even competent, they would have at least 1 Super Bowl from the Daboll years 

 

Now- I am not saying that they should go full 2021 and just pass it 40 times a game as I do think it's good to have a bit more balance. But I feel like the bills made too dramatic of a shift. It’s like a pitcher who throws 100mph who can't be hit- But instead of adding a change up to complement the fastball, they tell him to to throw 90mph and just focus on location. Doesn't make sense to me 
 

 

 

Edited September 21 by BillsFan130