Bills vs Chiefs WR investment

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

4 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

Since 2021 (have to start somewhere, the Bills also invested picks in 2020)

 

The Chiefs have drafted a WR for 5 consecutive years. 1st rounder, (2) 2nd rounders, 4th rounder, and 5th rounder. So fairly high value assets. The results of those drafts are below. 

 

Jalen Royals, Xavier Worthy, Rashee Rice, Sky Moore, and Cornell Powell. 

 

The Bills have drafted a WR for 5 consecutive years as well. 1st rounder, 2 (5th's), and 6th rounder, and a 7th rounder. So fairly low value assets outside of Coleman. The results of those drafts are below. 

 

Keon Coleman, Kaden Prather, Justin Shorter, Khalil Shakir, and Marquez Stevenson.

 

What interests me about this question is for largely two consecutive years when I have watched Chiefs games I have said to myself this has to be the worst WR group in football. I mean, we complain about our WR's, but last week it was Hollywood Brown, Taquan Thornton, and Ju Ju. Last year it was largely the same. Mind you, Worthy could very well be something, and Rice is something, but neither looks to be the most durable. Maybe that is dumb bad luck, maybe not, but the fact remains KC is consistently fielding a horrific WR core the last two years.

 

Meanwhile back in Buffalo, we have been a bit more hesitant to invest high value here. I think it's been stated by Beane that WR is a very hard position to judge in the draft. Perhaps that is what leads to apprehensiveness. Which I largely don't agree with, however, our approach seems pretty clear. We focus this position on depth and an elevated floor vs a high ceiling, specifically with budget friendly FA acquisitions.   

 

Now one thing is for sure. We will never be running a Taquan Thornton on the field. We have good depth here. When Elijah Moore is one of your last in, that is a problem the Chiefs would love to have. But beyond the depth, you could very well argue that the returns of Coleman and Shakir rival the returns of Worthy and Rice. Rice could very well be the best of the group, but you need to play to be in the conversation. 

 

So as much as I have historically disliked our approach at WR, I think what has happened to the Chiefs is sort the reason we have that approach. I think we care more about depth and ensuring it's not a position that kills us vs reaching for the stars and missing. Further, I would argue for as much crap as we give the front office over the WR position and I still feel somewhat justifiably so, KC has done a much worse job. They have reached a critical point in talent erosion multiple years. They invested more in the draft for the same or even worse returns. Yes, a lot of bad injury luck, but nobody cares about the recipe they want to know how it tastes.   

 

You aren’t imagining it. Chiefs skill positions players in general have been garbage for the past 2 years. Kelce has been dropping some very catchable balls. Mahomes just doesn’t have enough firepower and I don’t think they win their division this year. 

[Richard Noggin]

This might also speak to Beane's habit of NOT aggressively adding to a position of strength when a potentially special prospect is inconveniently available. He has often seemed to reach around (forgive me) higher graded players at positions of lesser immediate "need" in order to address more glaring needs with potentially lesser prospects. And then when he does double-dip, we get an ahemboogiebasham that doesn't seem like great fit or value.

 

That's just one example, but BPA is NOT AT ALL Beane's draft philosophy. Which is a mistake imho when your team is successful and therefore perennially at the back of the line. Gotta grab BPA year over year in order to hit more home runs and wind up with more difference makers. Again, in my humble and limited opinion. 

 

Edit: this is not intended to characterize Beane as a bad drafter. Far from it. Just not someone playing the long game year after year. And I mostly get the reasons for that IRL wrt to cap and roster management. But you have Josh Freaking Allen, so why not swing for the fences more often. 

Edited September 18 by Richard Noggin

[NeverOutNick]

We’ve also had numerous chances to draft WRs and instead continually invest in the D line. We’re banging our heads against the wall thinking if we get that one D lineman that can become Chris jones we will win a SB instead of investing in a WR who can create separation for Josh in key moments and maybe come up with a catch to win us the game. Passing on WRs with big upside like Troy Franklin for high character nobodies like Dwayne Carter is the definition of what the McBeane regime does. Even this year let’s hope that trading up for another DT in sanders was the right call instead of trading up for Luther Burden. Probably won’t know for another year or so. I just hope they can change course and finally get that they need to invest around their biggest asset, Josh Allen. Great job on the O line now get our boy some real weapons. 

[NeverOutNick]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

We used a 1st rd pick on Keon Coleman.  He just wasn’t drafted in the 1st round.  we used a 1st plus other picks to land Diggs.  You’re debating semantics.  Looking for a hook phone.  But there’s no loophole in logic.  
 

When the discussion revolves around the investment of draft picks the team has made into the WR position, you can’t remove Keon and Diggs for the discussion just because they weren’t actually drafted in the 1st rd by the bills.  The bills acquired them by INVESTING first round picks. Thats the discussion.  Don’t be stupid
 

Investing a 1st round pick in the 2024 draft would have been the bills trading up a few picks to get Brian Thomas Jr. instead of trading back a couple times into the 2nd round for whatever WR remained.

 

And I like how Coleman is developing I just wish the Bills took the WR position as seriously in the draft as they try to with the D line 

[NeverOutNick]

21 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

You aren’t imagining it. Chiefs skill positions players in general have been garbage for the past 2 years. Kelce has been dropping some very catchable balls. Mahomes just doesn’t have enough firepower and I don’t think they win their division this year. 

I wish this was true but they’ll still win the division. Rice is a really good WR and Andy Reid will get the most out of Worthy when healthy. Mahomes has taken a step back but the NFL will do its part to ensure any close game goes team Swifts way. But I’m definitely hopeful that LAC “charges” full steam ahead and wins the division 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

29 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

I wish this was true but they’ll still win the division. Rice is a really good WR and Andy Reid will get the most out of Worthy when healthy. Mahomes has taken a step back but the NFL will do its part to ensure any close game goes team Swifts way. But I’m definitely hopeful that LAC “charges” full steam ahead and wins the division 

Chiefs won 12 games by 1 score last year. It’s just not a good recipe for success trying to win ugly week in & week out. I don’t see them blowing teams out this year with that offense so I expect many more close games. Can Chiefs win that many again? 

 

The emergence of the Chargers as a legit contender for the West. Harbaugh is building something over there. If you compare both rosters talent, it’s not even close. The only thing I would say is equal are their defenses. 
 

Bills fans know what happens when you put it all on one player to be your entire offense. Mahomes is their leading rusher !  Kelce is old and their WRs even when HEALTHY are very very blah 😑 

 

My gut is telling me they don’t. The one thing the Bills have on the Chiefs is a much weaker division. Our rivals got worse, there’s got better. 

[Dr.Sack]

KC has Worthy and Rice. They will be fine by week 7.

[folz]

3 hours ago, NeverOutNick said:

Investing a 1st round pick in the 2024 draft would have been the bills trading up a few picks to get Brian Thomas Jr. instead of trading back a couple times into the 2nd round for whatever WR remained.

 

And I like how Coleman is developing I just wish the Bills took the WR position as seriously in the draft as they try to with the D line 

 

At the time, this is what I was hoping/thought the Bills would do---trade up for Brian Thomas, Jr. Of course, we don't know that they didn't at least inquire about it...maybe no one would trade or maybe the price was too high, who knows. But that's what I was hoping for too.

 

And by no means is the following an exact science, but I tried to see what might have been if we did go that route.

 

If we moved up from 28 to 23 to take Thomas Jr., according to the draft chart, we would need 100 points. In order to do that without using future draft picks, we would have had to give JAX our first 4th rounder and our second and third 5th round picks (the Bills had two 4th round picks and three 5th round picks at the start of the draft). No one can say exactly how it would have played out, but the two drafts might have looked like this (if the Bills still picked the same players when in the same range):

 

Round     Pick     

    1           23     Brian Thomas, Jr.

    2          60     Cole Bishop

    4         133     CB Jaden Hicks (this is who KC ended up drafting at pick 133 of the 4th round---not sure who the Bills would have taken, maybe Davis if available) 

    5         141      Sedrick Van Pran-Granger

    6         204    Tylan Grable

    6         219    Daequan Hardy

    7         248    OG C.J. Hanson (this is who KC ended up drafting with pick 248 of the 7th round)

 

Bills draft as it was:

Round     Pick

    2          32      Keon Coleman

    2          60      Cole Bishop

    3          95      DeWayne Carter

    4         128     Ray Davis

    5         141      Sedrick Van Pran-Granger

    5         160     Edefuan Ulofoshio

    5         168     Javon Solomon

    6         204    Tylan Grable

    6         219      Daequan Hardy

    7         221      Travis Clayton

 

So, basically we lose Keon, Carter, Davis, Ulofoshio, Solomon, and Clayton; but we would have Thomas, Jr. and pick 133 in the 4th round and pick 248 in the 7th round (9th last pick in the draft). I know it wouldn't play out exactly that way, the Bills may have chosen other players/positions in the 4th to 7th rounds in the top draft based on the players/positions they weren't able to draft---for instance maybe they go DT or RB in the 4th instead of KC taking a CB, maybe they can still grab Davis there. But, just trying to get a general idea if it would have been worth it to trade up.

 

As far as Thomas, Jr. and Coleman: Obviously Brian had a BIG rookie year, but he also had a ton of targets. He also played four more games than Keon and didn't have the strange end of a rookie season like Keon did. But to this point in their careers, here are a few numbers to look at:

 

Thomas, Jr.: 70.6 yards per game; 0.526 TDs per game; 8.83 yards per target; 0.066 TDs per target. (152 total targets to date)

K. Coleman: 46.3 yards per game; 0.333 TDs per game; 9.77 yards per target; 0.070 TDs per target. (71 total targets to date)

 

[Not to cherry pick stats: Thomas, Jr. currently has 1,342 yards and 10 TDs; Coleman has 694 yards and 5 TDs.]

 

I know pro-rating stats is a bit of a fool's errand because Keon didn't get as many targets as Thomas for a number of reasons. But, if you did pro-rate Keon's rookie year stats out to the same number of targets that Thomas, Jr. had, Keon would have been at 1,288 yards and 11.58 TDs. And Keon is not only looking good so far this year, he's also getting more targets than his rookie year. Last year he averaged 4.48 targets per game, in the first two games this year, he is averaging 7 targets per game.

 

And I know you can't draw conclusions from just two games, and obviously Keon has the better QB/offense, but so far this year:

Coleman: 14 targets, 11 receptions, 138 rec yards, 9 rush yards, 1 TD

Thomas:  19 targets, 5 receptions, 60 rec yards, 48 rush yards, 0 TD

 

Again, I'm not saying Keon is better than Thomas, Jr., but if he at least keeps pace with him or stays in somewhat of his range, then with the extra assets we got on top of that, maybe Beane played it right. I don't know, what do you guys think? Is Thomas just that much better than Keon that the other assets don't equate? It's basically Keon, Carter, Davis, Ulofoshio, and Solomon vs. Brian Thomas, Jr. and a late 4th round pick.

[Matt_In_NH]

If you point out the lack of chiefs wrs people say yeah but kelce.   Interesting how we now ignore the first round investment in a receiving te.   

8 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

Brett Veach is really good at drafting - he misses sometimes. Brandon Beane is really good at drafting - he misses sometimes. They’re two of the best in the NFL. 
 

They both have their flaws, one has the luxury of walking into a situation with future Hall of Fame players and a Hall of Fame Coach already in the building to mask those issues. Not taking anything away from Veach, he’s really ***** good. 
 

 

I have never seen a deep dive analysis on drafting.  Instead it’s the list of misses and that is why beane sucks.  There is not one GM who does it miss with high picks.  If there is show us who that is. 

[Ayjent]

I think teams aren’t good at evaluating WRs and maybe it is hard to do but I also think if you watch enough college ball you can have a really good idea of who is good based on how they play versus the best competition, what flaws they display and how much they win there reps.  I thought it was a joke when Kadarius Toney was a 1st round pick.  Although his final season at Florida was much better than his other seasons he was still baffling in some of his decision making once he had the ball in his hands, wasn’t all that sure handed and was not a good route runner.  Sure had speed and could be elusive, but those other negatives were there for everyone to see and they didn’t go away as a pro.  He also had some character issues to boot.  (FWIW Elam had equally concerning flaws with tackling and losing receivers on their cuts).  

 

My point is that scouting is not an exact science and sometimes the amount of due diligence isn’t as high as everyone perceives it.  There is hubris that some talent can be developed to correct issues but generally that is a poor strategy.   I will still hold that for the most part great talents in the NFL usually show themselves pretty early and the guys that take time to emerge as great players are more of an exception than rule.  You could tell Shakir was a good player his first year, even though the Bills were reluctant to give him more snaps.  You could tell Josh had something unique his rookie year when he QB’d the upset over the Vikings.

 

 

[FireChans]

7 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

I'm surprised that was your take here. The point is the Chiefs have invested at a high level in the WR position, as most would like to see us do. It hasn't worked

?????

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LVII

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LVIII

7 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

think its a pretty big misnomer that the Bills havent invested in pass catchers. If you want to say they haven't invested enough high round draft picks than I guess I can listen to that. I realize they haven't invested as much as say the defensive line but they have brought in guys

When a quarter of your list are guys signed 6 years ago who have been retired, I have to wonder.

 

6 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

 

Thought I would add this chart I did in the offseason. I posted it before, but maybe it helps establish in some consistent way the level of draft investment made at each position. Mind you, it does not account of pick for player trades like Diggs.

 

All of us are familiar with the draft trade value chart. Each pick is assigned a value. So I all I did was add the the value of every teams drafts since 2019. Then I looked at how many points were allocated to each position. So this isn't saying who spent the most, it's saying who spent the most of what they had as a %. We rank low as you would expect. KC is fairly high, as you would expect. I also included DL for context.

 

I found the largest correlations with win % being DL, CB, and WR investment. Teams that invest the highest in those three areas seem to have the best performance over this time frame. That's not to say that is the reason, it could be many reasons, I'm just describing the behavior of the teams that have won the most. 

 

Here is the composite of WR/DL/DB investment since that time. We are about middle of the pack. 

 

 

Last edit to this post and last call out. Notice the point totals. That goes to show how little draft capitol we have had relative to the rest of the league. 2nd to only KC as far as lowest value. Again, put in context just how late we draft. The Raiders are so low because the two city abbreviations screwed up my formulas and I got lazy. 

 

Did you include the “fact” that Keon Coleman was almost basically a first round pick despite being picked 33?

[The Jokeman]

8 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I think my issue is this. The Chiefs needed WRs. They drafted high. They did do well with Rice as long as he stops getting himself suspended. Worthy hasn't been around long enough to judge fairly. But they don't stop there. They go out and sign former 1000 yard receivers in Brown, Ju-Ju and last year DHop. They just keep grinding at the position when they miss.

 

Meanwhile, for us the position we do that with is the DL. We invest high picks and then turn around and have to sign pricey FAs. The PED guys, Bosa, Von. We just grind away on DL.

So adding Samuel, Palmer and Elijah Moore isn't similar? Maybe our guys signed not as "good" in terms of individual stats yet our offense has seemingly performed better on average than the Chiefs the last few years.

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, folz said:

So, basically we lose Keon, Carter, Davis, Ulofoshio, Solomon, and Clayton; but we would have Thomas, Jr. and pick 133 in the 4th round and pick 248 in the 7th round (9th last pick in the draft).

If you called the Jags right now and offered them that package for BTJ, they would laugh and hang up.

[JGMcD2]

58 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

If you point out the lack of chiefs wrs people say yeah but kelce.   Interesting how we now ignore the first round investment in a receiving te.   

I have never seen a deep dive analysis on drafting.  Instead it’s the list of misses and that is why beane sucks.  There is not one GM who does it miss with high picks.  If there is show us who that is. 

I’ve put this together and posted it every year for 5 years now - might be of interest. 
 

I’ve made some updates that I’ll roll out after this season, better accounting for the value of each pick. Spoiler - Bills still do very well. 

 

 

Edited September 18 by JGMcD2

[NewEra]

5 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

Chiefs won 12 games by 1 score last year. It’s just not a good recipe for success trying to win ugly week in & week out. I don’t see them blowing teams out this year with that offense so I expect many more close games. Can Chiefs win that many again? 

 

The emergence of the Chargers as a legit contender for the West. Harbaugh is building something over there. If you compare both rosters talent, it’s not even close. The only thing I would say is equal are their defenses. 
 

Bills fans know what happens when you put it all on one player to be your entire offense. Mahomes is their leading rusher !  Kelce is old and their WRs even when HEALTHY are very very blah 😑 

 

My gut is telling me they don’t. The one thing the Bills have on the Chiefs is a much weaker division. Our rivals got worse, there’s got better. 

The Chiefs were without their WR1 last season.  Losing Rice is a massive blow to the offense.  Hollywood missed almost all of last season too (while I’m not. Hollywood guy myself, they were counting on him.  Their OL was bottom tier.  
 

and they still beat us when it mattered.  Our defense got rollled by an offense that couldn’t getting rolling all season.  It was on us to make plays and we didn’t make enough.  
 

if the argument is that they won’t make the playoffs-  I’ll believe it when I see it. Two years ago- come November,  we were on the outside looking in at even making the playoffs. We turned it around and actually hosted KC in the playoffs.  Their O wasn’t very good that year either.  And we still lost.  

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

The Chiefs were without their WR1 last season.  Losing Rice is a massive blow to the offense.  Hollywood missed almost all of last season too (while I’m not. Hollywood guy myself, they were counting on him.  Their OL was bottom tier.  
 

and they still beat us when it mattered.  Our defense got rollled by an offense that couldn’t getting rolling all season.  It was on us to make plays and we didn’t make enough.  
 

if the argument is that they won’t make the playoffs-  I’ll believe it when I see it. Two years ago- come November,  we were on the outside looking in at even making the playoffs. We turned it around and actually hosted KC in the playoffs.  Their O wasn’t very good that year either.  And we still lost.  

It’s a new season. These aren’t the same teams as last year so I don’t understand why people are so quick to write off the Bills. They upgraded allover the roster and the younger players have a year or 2 of experience now. The Bills D-line hasn’t looked this good since the Williams days. O-line is also the best it’s been in many years. There is a lot to be hopeful about this year.
 

When has Mahomes ever gone 0-2 to start the season ? It’s going to be twice as hard on them not getting the #1 seed. I never said they wouldn’t make the playoffs. They will, but it’s going to be a Wildcard spot. 

[Ayjent]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

The Chiefs were without their WR1 last season.  Losing Rice is a massive blow to the offense.  Hollywood missed almost all of last season too (while I’m not. Hollywood guy myself, they were counting on him.  Their OL was bottom tier.  
 

and they still beat us when it mattered.  Our defense got rollled by an offense that couldn’t getting rolling all season.  It was on us to make plays and we didn’t make enough.  
 

if the argument is that they won’t make the playoffs-  I’ll believe it when I see it. Two years ago- come November,  we were on the outside looking in at even making the playoffs. We turned it around and actually hosted KC in the playoffs.  Their O wasn’t very good that year either.  And we still lost.  

This is unfortunately all true.  There are many reasons why, but it comes down to coaching as much as talent in the playoffs, especially when it comes to who you have to rely on in those games due to a season's worth of injuries.  The Bills have good coaching, but I think there is a very strong argument that the Chiefs have had better coaching with the combination of Reid and Spags.  I think the Bills are now at a place where they are much better than the Chiefs on the Offensive side, but there is still better scheme, talent, and coaching on the Defensive side for the Chiefs which makes it a challenge for our Offense and our Defense hasn't been good enough to expose the Chiefs' Offensive woes like other teams have.  I also think the type of WRs the Chiefs value is much different than the Bills - they want speed all over the place, while the Bills seem like they value possession, size, blocking and creativity/effort when Josh goes off script.  They don't seem too intent on making sure they have a guy that can blow the top off of the secondary.  

 

 

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

It’s a new season. These aren’t the same teams as last year so I don’t understand why people are so quick to write off the Bills. They upgraded allover the roster and the younger players have a year or 2 of experience now. The Bills D-line hasn’t looked this good since the Williams days. O-line is also the best it’s been in many years. There is a lot to be hopeful about this year.
 

When has Mahomes ever gone 0-2 to start the season ? It’s going to be twice as hard on them not getting the #1 seed. I never said they wouldn’t make the playoffs. They will, but it’s going to be a Wildcard spot. 

Write off the Bills?  I’m certainly not writing off the Bills.  I’m VERY confidant that we will win the Super Bowl this season. 
 

I don’t understand why people are writing off the chiefs.  They’ve been written off since they traded Tyreek.  Their offense has been better than average at best- until the playoffs.  Then they find a way.  They always find a way- partially due to luck- partially due to elite coaching- partially due to making clutch plays.  
 

yes- they’re 0-2 and a tougher division now.  I get it.  But they’re also trying to gel their OL and are without their top 2 WRs.  If there’s a team that deserves the benefit of the doubt- it’s the chiefs.  
 

But again- I truly believe we will win the SB this season.  We just have to stay healthy enough.  Losing Benford in the playoffs, again, will probably end our season, again. We need some luck.  Champions usually do

[jwhit34]

So both teams:

• Have picked 5 WRs
• Had 3 not work out
• Still have 2 of the 5 on their roster

The relevant question to ask is: Would you trade Coleman and Shakir for Rice and Worthy?

 

I don't think I make that trade. 

[Ayjent]

Just now, jwhit34 said:

So both teams:

• Have picked 5 WRs
• Had 3 not work out
• Still have 2 of the 5 on their roster

The relevant question to ask is: Would you trade Coleman and Shakir for Rice and Worthy?

 

I don't think I make that trade. 

Shakir is the most essential player of those 4 to either team, because he is such a big part of the Bills underneath passing game.  That's their bread and butter.  Rice has statistically had the best season of any of the 4, but off-field conduct and injuries have made him largely unavailable for some time now, and I don't think any team would be wise to take on that.  Worthy is a deep threat and RAC threat if he gets the ball in space, but he is a worthless blocker and we'll see if durability and nagging conditions start to become issues as he works back from the shoulder injury as sometimes happens with diminutive WRs (not saying that will be the case).  I think the jury is still out on both Coleman and Worthy and what they could be.  FWIW I think Coleman has been on the wrong side of some really bad refereeing - the last 2pt conversion attempt vs the Ravens was DPI and holding (take your pick), and the OPI vs the Jets was a trash call because the Jets' DB tripped all over himself and the ref assumed it was bc of Coleman pushing off.  However, I think Coleman also has the highest ceiling of any of these 4 players.