Dawson Knox Appreciation

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, BillsFan130 said:

But saying Knox is a better receiver than Kincaid just shows you have an agenda on Kincaid. Because no receiving stat or advanced stat will show that to be anywhere remotely true.

 

Knox was a better receiver last year.

 

Catch percentage - Knox 66.7% / Kincaid 58.7%

Yards per catch - Knox 14.1 / Kincaid 10.2

Yards per target - Knox 9.4 / Kincaid 6.0

Success rate - Knox 63.6% / Kincaid 53.3%

 

Kincaid had quite a few more targets, 75 vs 33, which shouldn't be discounted, but Knox was by far the more efficient pass catcher. Knox also had a higher ADOT (8.8 vs 7.5) so his targets were a higher degree of difficulty and he still came up with that much better efficiency.

 

Of course Kincaid has the higher upside. He is a better route runner and he has better movement skills. But for whatever reason he and Allen were not on the same page as much Knox and Allen were last year. Maybe they just need to develop better chemistry. But I continue to worry that Kincaid is not a natural NFL player and lacks some of the nuance required for that position. I'd love to be proven wrong. There have been mostly positive reports coming out of training camp. I think it's unlikely he'll ever fully live up to his 1st round draft status but if he can get around 750 yards and close to a 70% catch percentage I'd take that.

 

Edited September 1 by HappyDays

[Nephilim17]

Perhaps @ganesh is being modest but I feel a PDF is not necessary (some won't download it) and we can post the full PDF contents here (it's not overly long). Thanks for the write up and supporting a real team player. 

Written by Ganesh (not me):
 

Dawson Knox: Buffalo’s Tight End of Grit and Glory

 

From Walk-On to Bills Mainstay

Dawson Knox’s story has never been about the easy path. A quarterback in high school who battled injuries, he walked on at Ole Miss with little fanfare and few catches to his name. Scouts saw raw athleticism more than polish. But what stood out was his drive—the quiet, relentless work ethic that transformed him from a forgotten prospect into an NFL draft pick.

 

When the Buffalo Bills selected him in the third round of the 2019 draft, it wasn’t just about measurables. It was about potential. About a player who embodied resilience, toughness, and the kind of determination that fit the DNA of Buffalo itself.

 

Plays That Feel Like Buffalo

Knox’s game isn’t glamorous. It’s gritty. He’s as proud of a key block as he is of a touchdown. He’ll fight through defenders for three extra yards that won’t make the highlight reel but might win a drive.

 

One play that encapsulates him came in January 2022, during the Bills’ wild-card playoff against the Patriots. On Buffalo’s opening drive, Josh Allen rolled right and fired a pass Knox’s way. The ball seemed destined to sail out of reach—until Knox twisted his body mid-air, extended to the limit, and somehow reeled it in for the touchdown.

 

It was Buffalo’s first score in a game that would become one of the franchise’s most dominant playoff performances. And it was pure Dawson Knox: impossible catch, relentless focus, refusing to give up on a play that looked dead. By the night’s end, Knox had found the end zone twice—and came within a single yard of a third touchdown. It wasn’t just production, it was persistence, the kind of never-say-die performance that set the tone for the entire team.

 

“I trust Dawson. When the game’s on the line, I know he’s going to fight for that ball.” – Josh Allen

 

In 2021, Knox broke Buffalo’s single-season touchdown record for tight ends. But even in that career year, his identity wasn’t the scoreboard—it was the sacrifice. The willingness to take a hit over the middle. The unselfish joy in celebrating a teammate’s score. Every play feels like Buffalo itself: hard, cold, unrelenting, built on pride—and defined by a\ never-say-never belief that no moment is too big.

 

A Bill for Life

Knox’s connection with the city runs deeper than stats. He’s embraced its winters, its work ethic, and its identity as an underdog that refuses to quit. Head coach Sean McDermott puts it plainly: “Dawson is the guy who’ll do whatever it takes—block, catch, fight through pain. That’s Buffalo football.” – Sean McDermott

 

That’s why many in Buffalo believe Dawson Knox is more than just a player. He’s a symbol. The kind of athlete who doesn’t just wear the jersey but lives what it represents.

 

The Legacy in Motion

For Knox, football is more than a game. It’s family, faith, and city all bound together in blue and red. His plays remind fans of Buffalo’s own story—fighting for every inch, never backing down, finding pride in perseverance. Dawson Knox isn’t just a tight end. He’s Buffalo’s tight end. And if the city has its way, he’ll be a Bill for life.

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

3 hours ago, QB Bills said:

He's saying Dalton Kincaid sucks. Which he does.

Too skinny 

[BillsFan130]

12 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Knox was a better receiver last year.

 

Catch percentage - Knox 66.7% / Kincaid 58.7%

Yards per catch - Knox 14.1 / Kincaid 10.2

Yards per target - Knox 9.4 / Kincaid 6.0

Success rate - Knox 63.6% / Kincaid 53.3%

 

Kincaid had quite a few more targets, 75 vs 33, which shouldn't be discounted, but Knox was by far the more efficient pass catcher. Knox also had a higher ADOT (8.8 vs 7.5) so his targets were a higher degree of difficultly and he still came up with that much better efficiency.

 

Of course Kincaid has the higher upside. He is a better route runner and he has better movement skills. But for whatever reason he and Allen were not on the same page as much Knox and Allen were last year. Maybe they just need to develop better chemistry. But I continue to worry that Kincaid is not a natural NFL player and lacks some of the nuance required for that position. I'd love to be proven wrong. There have been mostly positive reports coming out of training camp. I think it's unlikely he'll ever fully live up to his 1st round draft status but if he can get around 750 yards and close to a 70% catch percentage I'd take that.

 

Those numbers don't factor in the lack of chemistry with Josh though . (Like you mentioned in your post) To my understanding, he had some of the highest uncatchable throws in the NfL when targeted . For whatever reason him and Josh weren't clicking.

 

I don't have the advanced stats for route percentage winning at the top of my head, but if I heard correctly from Joe Marino, Kincaid is extremely good.

 

Also , teams in the beginning of the year game planned heavily for Kincaid. (Some times being tripled teamed in the Arizona game). No one game plans against Knox and draws of course much more favourable matchups.

 

[RoscoeParrish]

4 hours ago, ganesh said:

I wrote down my thoughts on Knox and did some research on his overall career and what he means to Buffalo and what Buffalo means to him.  I believe he is a Buffalo Bills for LIFE.  I gave my data to chatGPT and got its help to write a polished article. Thought will share it here for my TBD friends

 

dawson knox.pdf 134.26 kB · 39 downloads

He is going to be cut next year imo.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

2 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

Are some people really that down on Kincaid where we are saying a guy with 22 catches in 16 games is better than him though? 

 

I get Kincaid had a disappointing year. He also missed 4 games and played through two bad knees.

To put it in perspective though- Kincaid has been in the league for 2 years and Knox has played 6. And Kincaid has already had more catches and more yards in a season than Knox has ever had.

 

I just can't even come close to saying Knox is better than Kincaid. Blocking? Sure. Receiving? Not even close

 

Are you new around here?  LOL

 

I Sander's doesn't have 3 sacks Sunday night, and Hairston and Int (even though he's on IR) somebody here will say they both suck or Hairston is injury prone.  It takes very little here for posters to draw a negative opinion on a player.  Seems like it's to show how smart they are.

 

Agree, think Kincaid can be much better than Knox long term.  Will be interesting to see if he has worked on his blocking some too.

[BillsFan130]

Just now, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Are you new around here?  LOL

 

I Sander's doesn't have 3 sacks Sunday night, and Hairston and Int (even though he's on IR) somebody here will say they both suck or Hairston is injury prone.  It takes very little here for posters to draw a negative opinion on a player.  Seems like it's to show how smart they are.

 

Agree, think Kincaid can be much better than Knox long term.  Will be interesting to see if he has worked on his blocking some too.

Haha no I knew people were down on Kincaid. But to the point where people are saying a guy with 44 catches and under 500 yards combined in 2 seasons is a better receiver than him? That's just crazy to me lol.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

4 hours ago, ganesh said:

I wrote down my thoughts on Knox and did some research on his overall career and what he means to Buffalo and what Buffalo means to him.  I believe he is a Buffalo Bills for LIFE.  I gave my data to chatGPT and got its help to write a polished article. Thought will share it here for my TBD friends

 

dawson knox.pdf 134.26 kB · 41 downloads

Thanks for the write up. I always forget Knox was a 3rd rounder. He competes like a undrafted FA trying to hold onto the final roster spot. I really hope Joe Brady can get both Tight Ends on the field at the same time. Seems like a great idea on paper…

[dickleyjones]

Knox catches TDs in the playoffs. He shows up when it matters. Kincaid has yet to do so. I hope Kincaid can figure it out.

[HappyDays]

15 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

To my understanding, he had some of the highest uncatchable throws in the NfL when targeted . For whatever reason him and Josh weren't clicking.

 

I don't have the advanced stats for route percentage winning at the top of my head, but if I heard correctly from Joe Marino, Kincaid is extremely good.

 

Those are the same kinds of metrics fans pointed to with Elijah Moore and yet his first couple teams let him go after two years each and he ended up as a roster bubble player for us. I don't put much stock in "route win" or "separation" metrics when it comes to evaluating pass catchers. They just seem like the last bastion for people trying to defend a player that hasn't lived up to expectations yet. NFL caliber pass catchers do more than just win their route; they read defensive leverage, adjust their spacing on the fly, and end up right where their QB expects them to be. By the way I don't think Knox excels in these areas but he certainly did it at a higher level than Kincaid last year. Does that mean I'm going to say Knox is a better NFL receiver than Kincaid? No I won't go that far off of one season especially since Knox has a lot more experience. But the efficiency metrics are what they are.

 

Hopefully the light comes on for Kincaid in year three. The movement skills give him a high ceiling but he needs to get the cerebral game down or he'll be some other team's version of Elijah Moore in a year or two.

 

Edited September 1 by HappyDays

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

11 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Haha no I knew people were down on Kincaid. But to the point where people are saying a guy with 44 catches and under 500 yards combined in 2 seasons is a better receiver than him? That's just crazy to me lol.

At the CURRENT stage of their careers Knox is the better receiver, but that can change if Kincaid puts up better production and MAKES the tough catches. I fully believe that George Kittle or Brock Bowers would’ve came down w/ that one in KC. 
 

Speaking of Bowers, he is going to be the next HOF TE. I hope Kincaid can hit that level. Over 112 catches for 1100 yards receiving. Guy is a MONSTER and built identical to Kincaid.

Edited September 1 by ChronicAndKnuckles

[Mango]

My quick $0.02 sense is that Kincaid has been fine. Still a very high ceiling, but hasn't really delivered on expectations yet.

 

While Kincaid has taken the TE1 spot, Knox has low key been excelling at TE2. He's the better overall/well rounded TE at the moment, despite maybe not being as "athletic".

 

IRC, I thought Knox was the much better option as the season progressed.

 

I'm not throwing out Kincaid. I'm not even unhappy with him. It's just sort of where things have seemed to shake out at the moment.

 

Knox might not be a $15M TE, but he has been really solid as of late, which has been overshadowed by the shiny new toy (Kincaid).

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

36 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

But I continue to worry that Kincaid is not a natural NFL player and lacks some of the nuance required for that position.

 

Kincaid most certainly will be in the NFL for the foreseeable future. The question is will he take his game to the next level like some of his counterparts? Even if he plateaus where he’s at right now, he’s still average production wise around the league. 

[BigDingus]

"Dawson Knox isnʼt just a tight end. Heʼs Buffaloʼs tight end. "

 

 

I may be getting older, but I'm still as immature as ever. This line got me chuckling like I'm a 10 year old still 😆

[BillsFan130]

30 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

At the CURRENT stage of their careers Knox is the better receiver, but that can change if Kincaid puts up better production and MAKES the tough catches. I fully believe that George Kittle or Brock Bowers would’ve came down w/ that one in KC. 
 

Speaking of Bowers, he is going to be the next HOF TE. I hope Kincaid can hit that level. Over 112 catches for 1100 yards receiving. Guy is a MONSTER and built identical to Kincaid.

How is he a better receiver? I seriously have no idea how a lot of people can think this.

 

Kincaid missed 4 games last year, plus had 2 busted knees, and his receiving output last year is basically the same as Dawson Knox's last 2 years combined.

[BillsFan130]

35 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Those are the same kinds of metrics fans pointed to with Elijah Moore and yet his first couple teams let him go after two years each and he ended up as a roster bubble player for us. I don't put much stock in "route win" or "separation" metrics when it comes to evaluating pass catchers. They just seem like the last bastion for people trying to defend a player that hasn't lived up to expectations yet. NFL caliber pass catchers do more than just win their route; they read defensive leverage, adjust their spacing on the fly, and end up right where their QB expects them to be. By the way I don't think Knox excels in these areas but he certainly did it at a higher level than Kincaid last year. Does that mean I'm going to say Knox is a better NFL receiver than Kincaid? No I won't go that far off of one season especially since Knox has a lot more experience. But the efficiency metrics are what they are.

 

Hopefully the light comes on for Kincaid in year three. The movement skills give him a high ceiling but he needs to get the cerebral game down or he'll be some other team's version of Elijah Moore in a year or two.

 

Ya to a certain extent I agree with you about those advanced stats . But Kincaid has shown in the nfl he can play at a pretty high level.
 

His rookie season he had 70 plus catches and almost 700 yards which is extremely good for a rookie TE. So i do think those stats, matchup up with the advanced stats, that the dude can clearly create separation and produce.

 

For whatever reason last year him and Josh weren't on the same page. And It has been confirmed that he played through some pretty tough bilateral knee injuries.

 

I do think he has been slightly disappointing the first two seasons in totality. But i just can't fathom saying that Knox is as good as him when it comes to being a receiving tight end. It's not even close IMO

[boater]

Per Hard Knocks...

 

Knox travels light. He went to two weeks of training camp with only a carry on bag, that his wife carefully packed for him. Lots of underwear.

 

Kincaid wants to be a Peregrine falcon.

 

That, ladies and gentlemen, are your Buffalo Bills Tight Ends.

 

[RoscoeParrish]

1 hour ago, Nephilim17 said:

Perhaps @ganesh is being modest but I feel a PDF is not necessary (some won't download it) and we can post the full PDF contents here (it's not overly long). Thanks for the write up and supporting a real team player. 

Written by Ganesh (not me):
 

Dawson Knox: Buffalo’s Tight End of Grit and Glory

 

From Walk-On to Bills Mainstay

Dawson Knox’s story has never been about the easy path. A quarterback in high school who battled injuries, he walked on at Ole Miss with little fanfare and few catches to his name. Scouts saw raw athleticism more than polish. But what stood out was his drive—the quiet, relentless work ethic that transformed him from a forgotten prospect into an NFL draft pick.

 

When the Buffalo Bills selected him in the third round of the 2019 draft, it wasn’t just about measurables. It was about potential. About a player who embodied resilience, toughness, and the kind of determination that fit the DNA of Buffalo itself.

 

Plays That Feel Like Buffalo

Knox’s game isn’t glamorous. It’s gritty. He’s as proud of a key block as he is of a touchdown. He’ll fight through defenders for three extra yards that won’t make the highlight reel but might win a drive.

 

One play that encapsulates him came in January 2022, during the Bills’ wild-card playoff against the Patriots. On Buffalo’s opening drive, Josh Allen rolled right and fired a pass Knox’s way. The ball seemed destined to sail out of reach—until Knox twisted his body mid-air, extended to the limit, and somehow reeled it in for the touchdown.

 

It was Buffalo’s first score in a game that would become one of the franchise’s most dominant playoff performances. And it was pure Dawson Knox: impossible catch, relentless focus, refusing to give up on a play that looked dead. By the night’s end, Knox had found the end zone twice—and came within a single yard of a third touchdown. It wasn’t just production, it was persistence, the kind of never-say-die performance that set the tone for the entire team.

 

“I trust Dawson. When the game’s on the line, I know he’s going to fight for that ball.” – Josh Allen

 

In 2021, Knox broke Buffalo’s single-season touchdown record for tight ends. But even in that career year, his identity wasn’t the scoreboard—it was the sacrifice. The willingness to take a hit over the middle. The unselfish joy in celebrating a teammate’s score. Every play feels like Buffalo itself: hard, cold, unrelenting, built on pride—and defined by a\ never-say-never belief that no moment is too big.

 

A Bill for Life

Knox’s connection with the city runs deeper than stats. He’s embraced its winters, its work ethic, and its identity as an underdog that refuses to quit. Head coach Sean McDermott puts it plainly: “Dawson is the guy who’ll do whatever it takes—block, catch, fight through pain. That’s Buffalo football.” – Sean McDermott

 

That’s why many in Buffalo believe Dawson Knox is more than just a player. He’s a symbol. The kind of athlete who doesn’t just wear the jersey but lives what it represents.

 

The Legacy in Motion

For Knox, football is more than a game. It’s family, faith, and city all bound together in blue and red. His plays remind fans of Buffalo’s own story—fighting for every inch, never backing down, finding pride in perseverance. Dawson Knox isn’t just a tight end. He’s Buffalo’s tight end. And if the city has its way, he’ll be a Bill for life.

It was written by ChatGPT

[First Round Bust]

Knox has the respect of Josh-coaches-players but not quite the play-maker the fans expected which is now going to be expected from Kincaid for plays and scores and Hawes for blocking..sad to say we could be looking at his last season (along with Milano) as a Bill as the cap has to be addressed...I also enjoyed him pounding beers with Tommy Doyle and others in Josh's (or sponsors ?) suite at Sabres games over the years...

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

2 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

How is he a better receiver? I seriously have no idea how a lot of people can think this.

 

Kincaid missed 4 games last year, plus had 2 busted knees, and his receiving output last year is basically the same as Dawson Knox's last 2 years combined.

IDC about stats. I don’t play fantasy football anymore. Dawson Knox doesn’t drop that pass Kincaid did in the KC game. I don’t want to hear how it was a bad pass. Considering the pressure, it was a beautiful throw that hit Kincaid right in the mitts. Knox has made some big time catches over his career and seems to not be bothered by the spotlight. He is also a far superior blocker and the more complete TE in the respected stages of their careers.