longtimebillsfan Posted August 4 Posted August 4 On 7/31/2025 at 3:38 PM, GoBills808 said: im pretty sure the Chiefs didn't have a +131 point in 2024 No they didn't. In tge regular seadon KC point differential was +59. Quote
DapperCam Posted August 4 Posted August 4 I’m pretty sure the Chiefs will be playing wildcard weekend this year. They could replay last season in a simulator 100 times and not get the lucky BS, horseshoe up their rear results they got last season. So many memorable lucky plays that all broke their way. - Ravens opener Likely toe on the line - Bengals pass interference on a 4th a mile desperation heave - Another one late where KC clearly committed PI in the endzone but it was uncalled (I want to say it was the next week). - Coin toss to get the ball in OT vs the Bucs when both defenses were spent - Denver blocked game winning FG. - Raiders driving for the game winning FG (and are already in range) and the center snaps the ball with nobody ready. - Carolina where Mahomes had a big scramble to get in FG range when it looked like they would lose. Like they were the team of destiny for some reason. Even getting 50% of these would have been extremely lucky. I think the Bills had only one game like this. It was the game where Coleman drew DPI and Bass nailed that super long game winner. 1 1 Quote
longtimebillsfan Posted August 4 Posted August 4 (edited) On 8/2/2025 at 4:38 AM, ganesh said: Their division has suddenly become very strong... The Broncos entered last years playoffs as a hot commodity before they were blown away by the Bills in the Wild Card. They will be more better in season 2 of Nix. The Chargers have a great coach and he is getting the best out of his team and QB...He will have his team compete harder in the division Pete Caroll is a wildcard and he could bring his magic to Vegas More better. Come on man. Are you for real? Edited August 6 by longtimebillsfan 1 Quote
Brianmoorman4jesus Posted August 4 Posted August 4 With a healthy mahomes there’s no shot they miss the playoffs. Get real out here. Eventually you just got to beat them. Our coach needs to be better. Can’t just keep hoping someone else does your dirty work. Get better 1 Quote
corta765 Posted August 5 Posted August 5 There is some statistical truth to what you are saying, but betting the Chiefs to miss entirely is still wild to me. Even if the Chiefs do regress, the division is tougher, and in general fortune finally smiles away from them there are three points that make it still very risky idea that they miss. 1. The playoff field expanded in 2020, of the teams listed that missed the following season they did not play in that format. The Chiefs have more variance allowed because of the additional spot even if they don't win the division. 2. Franchise QBs are protected and dominate in a way that makes it more difficult for them to miss the playoffs. Only Cam's Panthers missed of teams that you listed that had franchise guys. It took a truly heracleion effort by the Bengals defense to suck so bad last year that Burrows tremendous season was for naught along with a few games that they lost because of a miss FG or a play here. In today's NFL you bet on the top QBs to at least make the playoffs because of how the league values them and it is a fools bet to go against it. 3. The Chiefs unfortunately are the Patriots all over again which was the original exception to the rule. They have a QB Coach combo which elevates everything even if the roster is flawed or has holes. Your ability for error is greater when your Coach QB can do so much. I expect the Chiefs to come back to earth a bit, but what are we talking 11-6/12-5 where at worst their a wildcard team? They are still a terrifying monster and the only other combo this devastating made it work for nearly two decades and defied every statistical piece that exists. One of the things that made me laugh when Mayo took over the Pats from BB was this assumption the defense would still be lights out. BB hate or not still had a defense that his coaching mind elevated in a way few can do. Reid is the same on offense and has a DC that is brilliant in his own right. When that is paired with Mahomes or Brady you really are at a different ceiling that is quite difficult to stop. Quote
JP51 Posted August 5 Posted August 5 On 7/31/2025 at 3:19 PM, BillytheKid said: (I wrote this…This is why I don’t think KC makes the playoffs or if they do they get beat in the Wildcard round.) Three Strikes Against the Chiefs: Why History Says 2025 Could Be a Fall from Grace The Kansas City Chiefs enter the 2025 season with a résumé unmatched in modern NFL history: three straight Super Bowl appearances, back-to-back titles in 2022–23 and 2023–24, and a flawless 11-0 record in one-score games last season — only to lose the Super Bowl by 18 points. But beneath the surface of this dominance lies a convergence of three historical red flags — and no team has ever faced all three at once. --- ⚠️ Red Flag #1: Undefeated in One-Score Games Teams that dominate one-score games often regress hard the following season. The margin for error is razor-thin, and luck tends to even out. • 2022 Vikings: 11-0 → 7-10, missed playoffs • 2015 Panthers: 10-0 → 6-10, missed playoffs • 1998 Falcons: 9-0 Super Bowl loss → 5-11, missed playoffs • 2020 Steelers: 8-0 → Wildcard loss • 2006 Colts: 9-0 Won Super Bowl → Lost in divisional round Historical hit rate: • ✅ ~40% chance to make playoffs • ❌ 0% chance to reach the AFC Championship the following year --- 🏆 Red Flag #2: Three Straight Super Bowl Appearances Only three other teams have made it to three straight Super Bowls prior to KC. None of them won the Super Bowl the following year. • 1971–73 Dolphins: Lost in divisional round after winning back to back Super Bowls. • 1990–93 Bills: Missed playoffs after fourth straight appearance• Note: They did return to the Super Bowl after their third straight, but they had never won two in a row or gone undefeated in one-score games the year prior — unlike Kansas City. • 2016–18 Patriots: Lost in Wildcard round Kansas City (2023-25) Only one out of these 4 teams to go 11-0 in one score games the previous year. Historical hit rate: • ✅ 100% chance to make playoffs • ⚠️ ~33% chance to return to the Super Bowl • ❌ 0% chance to win it --- 💥 Red Flag #3: Losing a Super Bowl by 14+ Points Teams that get blown out in the Super Bowl rarely bounce back strong. Since 2000, here’s what happened the following year: • 2000 Giants: Missed playoffs • 2002 Raiders: Missed playoffs • 2014 Broncos: Lost in divisional round • 2015 Panthers: Missed playoffs • 2021 Chiefs: Lost AFC Championship• Only team to return to the AFC title game — but they hadn’t gone undefeated in one-score games the year prior. • 2025 Chiefs: Lost by 18 points — results pending Historical hit rate: • ⚠️ ~20–30% chance to make playoffs • ❌ ~10% chance to reach AFC Championship • ❌ ~0–3% chance to return to Super Bowl --- 📉 The Verdict: No Precedent, No Safety Net Each of these trends alone has historically spelled trouble. But no team has ever entered a season with all three stacked against them. Kansas City is the first. 📊 Combined Odds Based on Historical Precedent Outcome Estimated Odds Make Playoffs 25–35% Reach AFC Championship 5–10% Make Super Bowl 0–3% Win Super Bowl 0% 🔮 Prediction: The Fall Is Coming History doesn’t just whisper — it screams. The Chiefs are walking into a statistical buzzsaw. If the past is any guide, they’ll either miss the playoffs entirely or exit early in the Wildcard round. Betting man like myself, odds of Chiefs not making playoffs anywhere from +290 to +310 or take Baltimore and Buffalo winning the AFC Championship both at +350. I appreciate the work here... feels like whistling by the graveyard to me... if it happens it happens like that... excellent... but we still need to be better than Baltimore and KC if we want the superbowl.. we need to focus on that... we can start by trying to lock up the 1 seed... 1 1 Quote
corta765 Posted August 5 Posted August 5 On 8/2/2025 at 11:40 PM, billybob71 said: Chris Jones and Travis Kelce have to drop off significantly this year and JA is gonna have to go on a historical unprecedented run in the playoffs for the Bills to win one, JA is capable of doing that one of these years, unfortunately I feel that is the only way Buffalo gonna get one. On the flip side you could have put a number of QBs in for the Eagles in the super bowl and they still would have beat the Chiefs with how dominant that defense was When everything is said and done and Josh Mahomes Lamar Burrow retire you will see Allen/Lamar each have a ring or two and Mahomes has like 5 along with a few other AFC title rings just like Brady did to Peyton/Big Ben. Unfortunately he is blocking the way and when you finally get your turn to go your going to have to take it. Sports is like that, the Steelers blocked a lot of teams in the 70s from more rings and the Raiders that finally won in 1976 with Stabler was a partial relief to just get through and get the chance. Remember when the Pats lost Brady in 2008 that was one of only three times PIT made the SB and each time they did not have to face NE. Every other time they faced NE in the post season with Brady they lost. Peyton got some revenge over the years but even so NE still stole him from a far greater playoff legacy. 3 Quote
Dukestreetking Posted August 5 Posted August 5 On 8/3/2025 at 1:47 PM, machine gun kelly said: My thought that domes to mind... Maybe a typo, but "domes to mind" is brilliant wordplay. I'm stealing this phrase, with all attribution back to you MGK! Quote
machine gun kelly Posted August 5 Posted August 5 25 minutes ago, Dukestreetking said: Maybe a typo, but "domes to mind" is brilliant wordplay. I'm stealing this phrase, with all attribution back to you MGK! Id love to take credit Dule, but it was simply an autocorrect. I do t take false credit for stuff. 1 Quote
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