Are Fan Expectations Too High for Keon Coleman?

[Augie]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

So, what you are saying is that the lofty goal of around 500 yards as a rookie is basically meaningless. We agree.

 

That is not what I took from that at all, but then, I don’t have an agenda here. 

[NewEra]

Just now, FireChans said:

So, what you are saying is that the lofty goal of around 500 yards as a rookie is basically meaningless. We agree.

No- What I’m saying is-  wait and see.  Listing other players accomplishments or failures as proof that a player will have success or not proves nothing.  
 

Keons success (or lack thereof) will be determined by Keon.  Not by players of the past.  He can become a star.  He can flop and be out of the league by the time his rookie contract is up….but that’s on him.  Not examples of the past

[FireChans]

7 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

That is not what I took from that at all, but then, I don’t have an agenda here. 

What is your agenda-free take away from:

 

Lots of busts and good players have achieved 500 yards as rookies.

 

To me, the takeaway is clearly, then 500 yards as a rookie doesn't mean much.

 

If your takeaway is that Keon is going to be excellent/suck because he had 500 yards, I think you have an agenda tbh. 

[Augie]

7 minutes ago, FireChans said:

What is your agenda-free take away from:

 

Lots of busts and good players have achieved 500 yards as rookies.

 

To me, the takeaway is clearly, then 500 yards as a rookie doesn't mean much.

 

If your takeaway is that Keon is going to be excellent/suck because he had 500 yards, I think you have an agenda tbh. 

 

My takeaway is that it’s too soon to know. A lot of very good players took some time to get up to speed. That’s a fact, but I’m not slanting my interpretation in any direction. Some people here try to sound like they have an objective position, but they are fairly transparent in how they feel. 

[artmalibu]

If we are going to talk about other players, how about Eric Moulds who had less than 600 yards in this first 2 years playing in 32 games.  

 

IMO if he delivers 700 to 900 yards in an "everyone eats offense" he did very well. If he also has a low drop rate and strong blocking he did great as a 2nd round pick. 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

So, what you are saying is that the lofty goal of around 500 yards as a rookie is basically meaningless. We agree.

 

 

It can be misleading but it's certainly not "meaningless".

 

@Einstein is implying that lot's of rookie WR's put up significant stats and then vanish.    He didn't even seem to know who Alec Pierce was though.   A mid-second round pick with first round athletic testing numbers.   Not some random nobody who somehow lead the NFL in ypc which subsequently dismisses the value of Coleman's rookie ypc.

 

It's no more common for WR's to put up impressive rookie numbers and never develop than it is to see future stud WR's who don't produce much as a rookie.......as @NewEra detailed while you guys pointed out just one example.

 

I've compared Coleman's ceiling to that of Davante Adams because they entered the league with similar athletic profiles......and challenges to transitioning to the NFL.   Took Adams some time but that basketball type athleticism shown thru while the more track-athlete type profiles that excelled earlier in their careers from the 2014 draft have long since fallen by the wayside.

 

I will agree that the Bills were force-feeding Coleman targets though and that has to be weighed into the equation.   They did the same with Kincaid.   So you can't simply extrapolate their rookie production in their best games and expect that the following year.    But what they did proves that they have a foundation of ability that can produce at the NFL level.    It's not meaningless.   

 

 

[Maine-iac]

Since this thread is called what it's called I beg to question what is a low drop rate for an X WR in this offense?  We essentially throw to the slot, TE, and RB as opposed to the Davis and Diggs days we pretty much only throw outside on a few WR screens and if teams switch to single high or cover zero.  In those cases we are generally throwing jump balls, back shoulders, or contested catches in general.  Realistically what is a high drop rate for someone who is seeing mostly those type of throws?  He only had 4 drops last year with an ADOT of over 15 yards and Allen only threw 2 picks trying to get him the ball.  Allen threw 6 picks in back to back seasons trying to get Davis the ball.  I still think (hope) that Coleman can have Gabe plus production with better hands and more ability to work shorter because he's more nimble than Davis was.  Anyone who thinks you are going to get high catch or yardage totals like Diggs put up out of Coleman is going to be upset.  Guess that is telling because many people already seem to be upset.  In this offense Coleman is most likely the 3rd or 4th read before seeing the defense they're lined up against.  

Edited 3 hours ago by Maine-iac

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

On 6/19/2025 at 11:02 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yep you ridiculously exaggerated the amount of criticism Brown had received in an attempt to shout down this Coleman discussion.

 

Even in the Spencer Brown criticism thread that I quoted there weren't that many people other than the OP that were particularly critical of Spencer Brown.

 

But sure enough,  as I suspected........you were there in that thread to offer your contrary opinion.

 

You read the title of one thread......applied unnecessary gravity to it.......disagreed........and ran with it.

 

I'm not trying to shout anything down.  For all I know Coleman could be a bust, like I said the odds are against him as they are pretty much against everyone.

 

I'm just pointing out the stupidity of all the posters here who think they can tell when a player is going to be a bust or be great, as the reality is we all know very little.  There's too many people here who think they are the smartest guy in  the room when it comes to player evaluations.  I know I'm not as are almost everyone else here.

 

 

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

It's no more common for WR's to put up impressive rookie numbers and never develop than it is to see future stud WR's who don't produce much as a rookie.......as @NewEra detailed while you guys pointed out just one example.

I don’t know about that, but it would depend on your definition of “impressive rookie numbers”

 

I would harbor to argue that WRs who put up 900-1k yards as rookies are almost never busts, whereas the bust rate for average to not bad yardage totals as a rookie is almost certainly higher. ESPECIALLY in recent years. 
 

Going back to 2013, the list of rookies who put up 900+ yards:

 

Keenan Allen

OBJ

Mike Evans

Sammy Watkins

Kelvin Benjamin

Amari Cooper

Michael Thomas 

JuJu 

DK

Terry McLaurin

JJ

Tee Higgins

CeeDee Lamb

Chase

Waddle

Smith

ARSB

Wilson

Olave

Puka

Rice

Addison

BTJ

Ladd

Nabers

That list is about as nearly “bust” free as you can imagine.

The point I was generating was that Keon Coleman having “okay” numbers as a rookie by itself doesn’t mean much. I personally thought he played much better in the first half of the year than I expected and his whole season went off the rails. Whether that’s tape or rookie wall or injury or all 3 is anyone’s guess. 
 

What I do know is if Keon dropped a 900 yard rookie season, I would be arguing he has incredible chances to be a future NFL star. As it stands, a 500 yard rookie year gives him close to 50-50 odds historically, which is basically what his draft status guaranteed in the first place, which boils down to “he didn’t change my mind on him.”

[Einstein]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

@Einstein is implying that lot's of rookie WR's put up significant stats and then vanish.    He didn't even seem to know who Alec Pierce was though.  

 

Lol. I know who Pierce is - I’ve had him on my fantasy team since he was a rookie, paying stupidly to keep him every year because I keep thinking he will finally do something (silly me).

 

If you are happy with Pierce, and you would be happy with Coleman becoming a Pierce-like player, we diverge on what we expect out of borderline 1st round draft picks (and yes, I know Coleman was the first pick of the second round, too).

[Einstein]

4 hours ago, Augie said:

 

My takeaway is that it’s too soon to know.

 

 

I think everyone agrees with this. No one that I have seen is saying that there is no chance Coleman turns into something good.

 

What some of us are saying is “right now it doesn’t look great and his issues are not easily fixed”.

 

So many comparisons being made in this thread to players who had the raw physical skills but needed to tweak the skill set.

 

My concern with Coleman is not his ability or inability to refine his skill set - i’m sure he will - my concern is his raw physical skills. For example, I don’t think he is going to just magically gain speed over the offseason. 

[Augie]

4 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Lol. I know who Pierce is - I’ve had him on my fantasy team since he was a rookie, paying stupidly to keep him every year because I keep thinking he will finally do something (silly me).

 

If you are happy with Pierce, and you would be happy with Coleman becoming a Pierce-like player, we diverge on what we expect out of borderline 1st round draft picks (and yes, I know Coleman was the first pick of the second round, too).

 

You can be a tough grader with high expectations distorting the value of your opinions. You think it’s a wasted season if we don’t win the Super Bowl, because after all that is why we play the game. There are degrees, and there is still plenty of time for hope. 

[BigDingus]

You can't look at this, along with all the other data out there, and tell me Keon didn't under-perform.

 

My expectations are even higher this year, so I hope he gets things on track & improves significantly.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

I don’t know about that, but it would depend on your definition of “impressive rookie numbers”

 

I would harbor to argue that WRs who put up 900-1k yards as rookies are almost never busts, whereas the bust rate for average to not bad yardage totals as a rookie is almost certainly higher. ESPECIALLY in recent years. 
 

Going back to 2013, the list of rookies who put up 900+ yards:

 

Keenan Allen

OBJ

Mike Evans

Sammy Watkins

Kelvin Benjamin

Amari Cooper

Michael Thomas 

JuJu 

DK

Terry McLaurin

JJ

Tee Higgins

CeeDee Lamb

Chase

Waddle

Smith

ARSB

Wilson

Olave

Puka

Rice

Addison

BTJ

Ladd

Nabers

That list is about as nearly “bust” free as you can imagine.

The point I was generating was that Keon Coleman having “okay” numbers as a rookie by itself doesn’t mean much. I personally thought he played much better in the first half of the year than I expected and his whole season went off the rails. Whether that’s tape or rookie wall or injury or all 3 is anyone’s guess. 
 

What I do know is if Keon dropped a 900 yard rookie season, I would be arguing he has incredible chances to be a future NFL star. As it stands, a 500 yard rookie year gives him close to 50-50 odds historically, which is basically what his draft status guaranteed in the first place, which boils down to “he didn’t change my mind on him.”

 

 

That's not a response to what I said about your lack of supporting data for the quote "meaningless" nature of a rookie gaining 500 yards.

 

I repeat:

 

"It's no more common for WR's to put up impressive rookie numbers and never develop than it is to see future stud WR's who don't produce much as a rookie.......as @NewEra detailed while you guys pointed out just one example."

 

The data field you just chose to respond with does not run contrary to what I said or support your point one bit.

 

Just a ridiculously large goal post move that literally supports what I said.  

 

But done by you to make it seem like I questioned the trajectory of guys who put up top-32-in-the-NFL type receiving yardage as rookies.   

 

I obviously did not.

 

You said getting 500 yards as a rookie was "meaningless".   That's an absolute statement.    

 

By contrast, "doesn't mean much" is very subjective and basically not saying anything at all when paired with no supporting data for that opinion whatsoever.