Keon Coleman success by route - Not pretty

[MasterStrategist]

7 hours ago, FireChans said:

I just don't think it's an either/or proposition.

 

Yes, imo, the defense has been crappier overall in the postseason if I had to assign a blame pie. 

 

I think a lot of folks like @Alphadawg7 and @NewEra and @MasterStrategist see that as there's more room for improvement/impact if we add a star there. I think that's a reasonable take.

 

The problem is I have next to zero confidence that we would see that significant impact due to the apparent coaching mismatch. 

 

Do I think adding a Myles Garrett may help us make an extra play or two to beat the Chiefs?  Yes, I do.

 

Do I think adding a Myles Garrett is going to help us put up a 2020 Bucs or 2024 Eagles defensive performance against the Chiefs? I really do not.

 

So when it comes to beating the Chiefs (and beyond because that's not going to be the Superbowl), I don't really a vast distinction between adding an elite defensive player vs an elite offensive player. In fact, I think it's a reasonable take that adding a player who can catch 10+ balls from Josh Allen against the Chiefs will have more impact than a player coached by McD and schemed against by Reid to make an impact. 

 

And to bring it back to Keon Coleman. I hated the pick, because I didn't see the vision of the ceiling. I'm not convinced he is going to be anything more than a Mike Williams type player. Now, Mike Williams was a fine player, but a player like that is never the "answer" at WR. 

 

Ultimately, Keon's stretch of good play mid-season last year made me feel much BETTER about him. If he can be that player more consistently, I will feel much better about the offensive side overall. 

Very fair. 

 

We haven't seen McD with an elite def unit (healthy) come playoffs- unit or player at an impact position DE, CB).

 

Im more pro McD than anyone else here.  I think Beane has made so many great moves/and depth, but ultimately has failed at finding an elite defensive talent.  Thats likely Beane+Coach+others making those decisions, so its not all on Brandon. 

 

Just think we'd see much different results on defense, if we had a Josh Allen equivalent - like the Chiefs, Eagles, Bengals, 49ers, etc have had to make a deep run.

[NewEra]

23 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Why we looking back 7 games?  All way back to 2020?

 

Im looking at recent games: 2022-2024.  Yeah Cincy could have easily scored 30, if they didnt take the foot off gas and we would've needed 30 against KC.  Point being, what did we "need" to score to win based on game.

 

Agree offense underperformed.  Sometimes, actually alot of times, I dont think you read other posts.  Sorry youre either incacapable of that or just too lazy.  I mentioned exactly what you said, both underperformed- it is my opinion, the defense has had no answers for Bengals/Chiefs 2022-2024.   There's a reason the investment went there this offseason.

As we all know, he likes to pinpoint specific comments and ignore others in order to try and prove his points

[Toyo321]

To be honest Coleman is not the answer.  He will do a little better this year but nothing mind blowing.  It all comes down to our D Line again.

You have to be able to get the opposing QB on the run and sack him.  The Eagles did this to KC.  We did not.  Our team has failed every year in the playoffs because of this lack of D pressure.

No QB pressure when it counts in the playoffs equals losses every time.  That is why our receivers are so important.  If we cant get the opposing team off the field in a single series of downs.  We need wide receivers that can make the clutch catches and make YAC yards.  Right now Shakir is the only guy that does this.  Coleman has no speed and we signed two more receivers to try and come in and make a difference.  Elijah Moore & Joshua Palmer.  It goes to show that the  faith they have Coleman is not what everyone thinks it is.  I hated us signing Coleman but that ship has sailed so long ago.   

 

All we can do is hope he puts on his superman cape and pulls some sort of miraculous 2nd season performance out of his butt this year, with this team.  

 

We just need to find 3 receivers that when we put them on the field together they wreak havoc on the other team's D and DB's.

 

We have not had that in the JA era.

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I have been saying it all offseason, I really think Coleman is going to silence some critics this year.  Everything coming out has been very positive, including things like Allen publicly talking about how Keon has been in hitting him up all offseason on getting better, understanding more what Allen wants/expects in different situations, etc.  I think we will see an improvement on the guy we saw prior to the injury.  And what people forget is that 1000 yards was on the table before he was hurt in week 11.  At that point he was on pace for 800-900 yards, but that pace was increasing as he started getting more comfortable and involved as the season progressed.  

 

Barring injury, I think a realistic goal for him this season is 900-1100 yards and 8-10 TD's.  And that would be a pretty strong season in his 2nd year in this offense that spreads the ball around.     

 

I think the bottom end of your range is more like the ceiling personally. He is a bit boom and bust Keon and I expect that to continue. He will have 2 or 3 big games and then others where he has 1 catch for 19 yards or something. 

 

I'd be absolutely fine with a year from Keon that is over 800 yards and 6 or 7 touchdowns. But it wouldn't change the way I feel about the Bills' need for a difference maker on the boundary. To be honest even a 1,000 yard season wouldn't. The same way I always pushed back against the "John Brown had a thousand yard season he is a number 1 receiver" narrative that got some push around here coming out of 2019. 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Why we looking back 7 games?  All way back to 2020?

 

Im looking at recent games: 2022-2024.  Yeah Cincy could have easily scored 30, if they didnt take the foot off gas and we would've needed 30 against KC.  Point being, what did we "need" to score to win based on game.

 

Agree offense underperformed.  Sometimes, actually alot of times, I dont think you read other posts.  Sorry youre either incacapable of that or just too lazy.  I mentioned exactly what you said, both underperformed- it is my opinion, the defense has had no answers for Bengals/Chiefs 2022-2024.   There's a reason the investment went there this offseason.

 

 

Since 2020 it's the same QB's and HC's that have been leading the 4 legit SB contenders in the AFC.

 

Obviously.  

 

Drawing some arbitrary line 3 years ago.........as if anything has significantly changed in these rounds.......is simply illogical.

 

But let's look at those last 3 seasons in the divisional and championship round where you claim "the bottom line is the offense is good enough" but the defense requires them to score "30+ points" to win.

 

Offense:  22.5 points scored per game

 

Defense   27.5 allowed..........including only 1 of 4 games over 30 points allowed.

 

We all know why McBeane loaded up on defense.

 

Not the first time Beane has thrown a surprising amount of money at a bunch of cold-product defensive free agents and fans have just assumed they would be better than they were when their prior team released them outright or let them walk.

 

And if Bosa and Hoecht and Ogunjobi never play a down and Hairston, Sanders and Jackson make little-to-no impact as rookies......like Bishop and Carter the year prior.....the Bills will probably be RIGHT BACK in the divisional round against one of those other 3 stud QB's.

 

And it's still anyone's guess which side of the ball will be called upon to make a key play close out that/those game(s).

 

 

Edited yesterday at 12:07 AM by BADOLBILZ

[MasterStrategist]

38 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Since 2020 it's the same QB's and HC's that have been leading the 4 legit SB contenders in the AFC.

 

Obviously.  

 

Drawing some arbitrary line 3 years ago.........as if anything has significantly changed in these rounds.......is simply illogical.

 

But let's look at those last 3 seasons in the divisional and championship round where you claim "the bottom line is the offense is good enough" but the defense requires them to score "30+ points" to win.

 

Offense:  22.5 points scored per game

 

Defense   27.5 allowed..........including only 1 of 4 games over 30 points allowed.

 

We all know why McBeane loaded up on defense.

 

Not the first time Beane has thrown a surprising amount of money at a bunch of cold-product defensive free agents and fans have just assumed they would be better than they were when their prior team released them outright or let them walk.

 

And if Bosa and Hoecht and Ogunjobi never play a down and Hairston, Sanders and Jackson make little-to-no impact as rookies......like Bishop and Carter the year prior.....the Bills will probably be RIGHT BACK in the divisional round against one of those other 3 stud QB's.

 

And it's still anyone's guess which side of the ball will be called upon to make a key play close out that/those game(s).

 

 

And if you want to go back to 2020, we had an elite QB/Wr combo...with Beas and Brown.

 

And again, we should go for elite offense?

 

This defense has never been able to get off the field in key situations, thats been a sad fact.  

 

Looking back to 2020 is just dumb.  Like these teams are so comparable to now.  But at least we had what you want then- and it still didnt work.

[Richard Noggin]

Liked this bit from Matt Parrino's recent report:

 

Quote

 

“I thought he had an up and down first season,” McDermott said. “He got injured, and then from there on, it was rather rocky, I would say.”

 

Coleman didn’t have any problems with his coach’s assessment of his first NFL season. It lined up with how he felt it went.

“If you and your coaches are not saying the same thing, somebody lying,” Coleman said. “So if y’all have the same general idea on what stuff supposed to look like and what ya’ll want it to look like for the future, then you’ve done a good job self-evaluating yourself and being honest with yourself.”

 

 

Coleman seems like a guy who responds to/needs hard coaching. Humble and hungry. The social media physique police will appreciate Keon's hard work so far this offseason. Seems like the local pundits are also noticing some on-field growth this Spring. 

 

Let's hope it translates. 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

And if you want to go back to 2020, we had an elite QB/Wr combo...with Beas and Brown.

 

And again, we should go for elite offense?

 

This defense has never been able to get off the field in key situations, thats been a sad fact.  

 

Looking back to 2020 is just dumb.  Like these teams are so comparable to now.  But at least we had what you want then- and it still didnt work.

 

 

Everyone but you thinks 2020 and 2021 playoffs matter in the history of Josh Allen and McBeane.

 

13 seconds doesn't hold any meaning anymore?   That's a hot take if ever there was one "Master Strategist".😂

[Alphadawg7]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think the bottom end of your range is more like the ceiling personally. He is a bit boom and bust Keon and I expect that to continue. He will have 2 or 3 big games and then others where he has 1 catch for 19 yards or something. 

 

I'd be absolutely fine with a year from Keon that is over 800 yards and 6 or 7 touchdowns. But it wouldn't change the way I feel about the Bills' need for a difference maker on the boundary. To be honest even a 1,000 yard season wouldn't. The same way I always pushed back against the "John Brown had a thousand yard season he is a number 1 receiver" narrative that got some push around here coming out of 2019. 

 

Brown and Keon each breaking a 1000 yards isn't really comparable though IMHO.  Keon breaking 1000 yards in his 2nd season will be more significant in a spread the ball around offense that balances with a run game than John Brown doing it late in his career as an anomaly when we ran a pass happy offense with less options to throw to and lacked a balanced run game.

 

There is more than one way to be a difference maker as a boundary WR, and there are guys who are slower than Keon who have been top end boundary WR's, so what he can or can't be on the boundary is still yet to be known IMHO.  What they need from Keon is to be the best version of himself, they will fill in guys around him who have different strengths than Keon as they are building this team more around skills sets and roles.  

 

And to your point of being fine with this type if season...If Keon can grow into a role where he can consistently be a 900-1100 yard WR in this style of offense, he will be a pretty good player for us over that span.  And that is all we need him to be, he doesn't have to blossom into say a top 10 WR in the NFL even, just needs to do what he does at a high level and he is going to help this team win games.

 

Edited 18 hours ago by Alphadawg7

[RoscoeParrish]

52 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Brown and Keon each breaking a 1000 yards isn't really comparable though IMHO.  Keon breaking 1000 yards in his 2nd season will be more significant in a spread the ball around offense that balances with a run game than John Brown doing it late in his career as an anomaly when we ran a pass happy offense with less options to throw to and lacked a balanced run game

FWIW, 2019 wasn’t that pass happy and there are a fair amount of similarities, including the best WR on the team being a very good slot guy. 

[BADOLBILZ]

15 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think the bottom end of your range is more like the ceiling personally. He is a bit boom and bust Keon and I expect that to continue. He will have 2 or 3 big games and then others where he has 1 catch for 19 yards or something. 

 

I'd be absolutely fine with a year from Keon that is over 800 yards and 6 or 7 touchdowns. But it wouldn't change the way I feel about the Bills' need for a difference maker on the boundary. To be honest even a 1,000 yard season wouldn't. The same way I always pushed back against the "John Brown had a thousand yard season he is a number 1 receiver" narrative that got some push around here coming out of 2019. 

 

 

I'm curious why you think his ceiling is so low?

 

Is it because he seems so intellectually unsophisticated that you doubt he can overcome his lack of elite speed/quickness and become a technician?

 

To me,  Davante Adams and Coleman are very similar athletes and their strengths(aside from the leaping ability) are physical aspects that are not really easily gleaned from athletic testing.    Despite a ton of action in college it took Adams a relatively long time to learn how to use his subtle gifts to beat the NFL CB's who were basically all much faster than him.  

 

I think physically Coleman has the potential to develop a very nuanced game that the elite track numbers guys that are in his size range.....like DK Metcalf, Xavier Legette, Nyck Harbor......really don't/won't.

 

But I DEFINTELY question whether he's got the combination of intelligence, awareness and desire to turn his G league athleticism into what Adams has.

 

[GunnerBill]

19 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I'm curious why you think his ceiling is so low?

 

Is it because he seems so intellectually unsophisticated that you doubt he can overcome his lack of elite speed/quickness and become a technician?

 

 

 

Yea I don't see any nuance anywhere in his game. It's a bit bull in a china shop. I know you have used the Davante Adams comparison previously. He came out the first year I ever tried evaluating guys and I don't think I even looked at him so I don't know necessarily what I'd have made of him at a similar stage of his career / development. But Adams was second only to Stef Diggs as a route technician in his prime IMO and in a bigger, more powerful body and consequently better at the catch point. I don't know how someone (Coleman) who is so lacking in the basics of route running and spatial awareness goes from there to Davante Adams level good. That feels like a hell of a hill to climb to me and there are a lot of tendencies in his game that he'd have to unlearn pretty quickly. 

[Coach Tuesday]

12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I don't see any nuance anywhere in his game. It's a bit bull in a china shop. I know you have used the Davante Adams comparison previously. He came out the first year I ever tried evaluating guys and I don't think I even looked at him so I don't know necessarily what I'd have made of him at a similar stage of his career / development. But Adams was second only to Stef Diggs as a route technician in his prime IMO and in a bigger, more powerful body and consequently better at the catch point. I don't know how someone (Coleman) who is so lacking in the basics of route running and spatial awareness goes from there to Davante Adams level good. That feels like a hell of a hill to climb to me and there are a lot of tendencies in his game that he'd have to unlearn pretty quickly. 

I’m a Coleman Optimist but the thing that freaks me out watching him is that he seems to need contact with the defender in order to orient himself on the field.  That’s a basketball habit and he desperately needs to break it.

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

I’m a Coleman Optimist but the thing that freaks me out watching him is that he seems to need contact with the defender in order to orient himself on the field.  That’s a basketball habit and he desperately needs to break it.

 

Yep, he does. I talked about it at length before last year's draft when I was calling him a non-separator and was told ad nauseum I was "just obsessed with 40 times." Even though I'd expressed this view before he even ran at the combine. 

 

It's why I like him as a big slot. Because given free releases he seems much more willing to go and dictate the route - almost like it frees him up to focus on getting to his spot. When he is outside with a DB in his face it is as thought they become the focus and he loses any track of where he needs to be. 

[FireChans]

On 6/9/2025 at 10:53 AM, NewEra said:

Fair assessment. 👍🏻 

 

edit:  I guess where we differ most is regarding our belief in McD.  I think he’s capable.  He’s regularly shown that he can devise game plans to stifle Mahomes in the regular season.  Then the playoffs come around and we can’t stop them.  I would attribute some of this due to injury- not strictly McD.  Looking at the corners we’ve run out there in the playoffs compared to the regular season is a stark contract.  Benford has missed 95% of the snaps in the last two loses- which left us with Douglas/Elam and Douglas(on a sprained ankle)/Dane.  Neither pairing is Lombardi quality and hurt our D dramatically imo.  If Benford plays both games- I think we win at least 1.  Throw in AJ Klein playing and the investment in Von Miller yielding us nothing for 3 years in the playoffs.  
 

maybe that contributes to your lack of confidence in McD -  and that’s fair as well.  Does he need his D to be injury free in order to beat them?  Maybe so.  Will the D ever be healthy come playoffs?  Doubtful.  I get it.  
 

 

 

Sorry just saw this. 

 

0-4 with it consistently being one of the worst defensive performances of the season.

 

Only 3 defensive starters remain from that 2020 team. Same result. 

 

I agree they lack some talent, but it goes beyond that. It's not just bad luck or injuries. 

[BADOLBILZ]

54 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I don't see any nuance anywhere in his game. It's a bit bull in a china shop. I know you have used the Davante Adams comparison previously. He came out the first year I ever tried evaluating guys and I don't think I even looked at him so I don't know necessarily what I'd have made of him at a similar stage of his career / development. But Adams was second only to Stef Diggs as a route technician in his prime IMO and in a bigger, more powerful body and consequently better at the catch point. I don't know how someone (Coleman) who is so lacking in the basics of route running and spatial awareness goes from there to Davante Adams level good. That feels like a hell of a hill to climb to me and there are a lot of tendencies in his game that he'd have to unlearn pretty quickly. 

 

 

Yeah it's definitely the potential I am referencing and not what Coleman has entered the league as.

 

Adams was a very high volume target at Fresno State.  I remember being surprised he went in round 2 because I didn't think he could get open in the NFL.   And he couldn't.   He basically had to re-learn how to play the position at the pro level.   So he didn't reach his potential until year 5.   He really opened my eyes to that type of unusual skillset.

 

My biggest issue with the Coleman selection was that he looked to be a LONG way from where he needed to be.   The Bills needed help right away.   They needed what BTJ became.    

 

Coleman performed better than I expected statistically but a lot of that was literally Josh Allen buying time that should get any receiver open.   The Seattle TD.   The big play in Detroit.  

 

Putting him in the slot would definitely be a short cut.   I believe you are spot on about that.   I generally think most receivers would be better in slot conditions.   The Jags are even trying to get BTJ a lot more slot reps this year.  

 

But putting Josh Allen in a simpler offensive system in 2018 would have been a short cut too.  That's what I wanted.   I don't know that he could have evolved into quite the same quality of player without the challenge of mastering the EP system though.

 

I guess I would take my chances with keeping Coleman outside and challenging him.  Because I feel the ceiling is higher than you.  Josh Allen is probably going to continue to throw a top 5 amount of deep balls and they need to stop getting bottom 5 results from those throws.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

I’m a Coleman Optimist but the thing that freaks me out watching him is that he seems to need contact with the defender in order to orient himself on the field.  That’s a basketball habit and he desperately needs to break it.

 

 

Yeah that was what I saw at Florida State.  We've discussed it before.   If you've played or just watched a lot of hoops you see it.  

 

It's not all bad.  One of the reasons he's so great with YAC is because that close proximity and his feel for the contact prevents DB's from being able to break down to tackle him.    That definitely, naturally plays better from the slot.

 

By contrast,  Davante Adams mixes up his game by threatening DB's using close proximity for those embarrassing back shoulder and late hands catches........the fear of those allows him to set them up and create separation on others.

 

Coleman was a long way away from doing anything like that at the end of the season though.    

 

There is a horrible offensive series in second quarter of the AFCCG where Allen throws a tick behind Kincaid and he can't make the semi-contested catch,   then Allen throws an ankle ball to a wide open Samuel who is less than 10 air yards away.............and then on 3rd and long Coleman runs a just terrible, brain-dead go route down the sideline right into McDuffie and the drive is over.   All the Bills problems in the passing game exposed in one sequence.  

 

That was probably my lowest point in the Coleman experience last year.    

 

My hope is he comes back a greatly changed player.   A full, healthy offseason to focus on football leaves little excuse for him to not make huge strides.

Edited 8 hours ago by BADOLBILZ

[YattaOkasan]

19 hours ago, Toyo321 said:

To be honest Coleman is not the answer.  He will do a little better this year but nothing mind blowing.  It all comes down to our D Line again.

You have to be able to get the opposing QB on the run and sack him.  The Eagles did this to KC.  We did not.  Our team has failed every year in the playoffs because of this lack of D pressure.

No QB pressure when it counts in the playoffs equals losses every time.  That is why our receivers are so important.  If we cant get the opposing team off the field in a single series of downs.  We need wide receivers that can make the clutch catches and make YAC yards.  Right now Shakir is the only guy that does this.  Coleman has no speed and we signed two more receivers to try and come in and make a difference.  Elijah Moore & Joshua Palmer.  It goes to show that the  faith they have Coleman is not what everyone thinks it is.  I hated us signing Coleman but that ship has sailed so long ago.   

 

All we can do is hope he puts on his superman cape and pulls some sort of miraculous 2nd season performance out of his butt this year, with this team.  

 

We just need to find 3 receivers that when we put them on the field together they wreak havoc on the other team's D and DB's.

 

We have not had that in the JA era.

Coleman doesn't have YAC?  Shakir averaged 7.9 YAC and Coleman averaged 7.4.  I was very pleased with his ability to break tackles (4 broken tackles on 29 receptions is >>> shakirs 6 on 76). 

 

Why do you think we need 3 receivers too?  what teams have 3 receivers in this manner.  2 I get and I can understand saying we don't have that but 3 is a lot.  Do they have to be WR? Per Joe Marino our efficiency to RBs was super high; additionally, there is plenty of reason to think Kincaid can have a big season.  I don't know that well have 3 dynamic WR but I could see 3 dynamic pass catchers (Shakir, Kincaid, Coleman/Palmer) with a game plan specific player involved as well (RBs on LBs, Knox on Safeties, Samuel/Moore).  

[NewEra]

4 hours ago, FireChans said:

Sorry just saw this. 

 

0-4 with it consistently being one of the worst defensive performances of the season.

 

Only 3 defensive starters remain from that 2020 team. Same result. 

 

I agree they lack some talent, but it goes beyond that. It's not just bad luck or injuries. 

Who said it was?

 

Not I 

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Who said it was?

 

Not I 

I didn't.

 

I was implying we are at a coaching disadvantage every January when we play the Chiefs which is why our defense is regularly awful in those games.