Keon Coleman success by route - Not pretty

[MasterStrategist]

7 hours ago, FireChans said:

I just don't think it's an either/or proposition.

 

Yes, imo, the defense has been crappier overall in the postseason if I had to assign a blame pie. 

 

I think a lot of folks like @Alphadawg7 and @NewEra and @MasterStrategist see that as there's more room for improvement/impact if we add a star there. I think that's a reasonable take.

 

The problem is I have next to zero confidence that we would see that significant impact due to the apparent coaching mismatch. 

 

Do I think adding a Myles Garrett may help us make an extra play or two to beat the Chiefs?  Yes, I do.

 

Do I think adding a Myles Garrett is going to help us put up a 2020 Bucs or 2024 Eagles defensive performance against the Chiefs? I really do not.

 

So when it comes to beating the Chiefs (and beyond because that's not going to be the Superbowl), I don't really a vast distinction between adding an elite defensive player vs an elite offensive player. In fact, I think it's a reasonable take that adding a player who can catch 10+ balls from Josh Allen against the Chiefs will have more impact than a player coached by McD and schemed against by Reid to make an impact. 

 

And to bring it back to Keon Coleman. I hated the pick, because I didn't see the vision of the ceiling. I'm not convinced he is going to be anything more than a Mike Williams type player. Now, Mike Williams was a fine player, but a player like that is never the "answer" at WR. 

 

Ultimately, Keon's stretch of good play mid-season last year made me feel much BETTER about him. If he can be that player more consistently, I will feel much better about the offensive side overall. 

Very fair. 

 

We haven't seen McD with an elite def unit (healthy) come playoffs- unit or player at an impact position DE, CB).

 

Im more pro McD than anyone else here.  I think Beane has made so many great moves/and depth, but ultimately has failed at finding an elite defensive talent.  Thats likely Beane+Coach+others making those decisions, so its not all on Brandon. 

 

Just think we'd see much different results on defense, if we had a Josh Allen equivalent - like the Chiefs, Eagles, Bengals, 49ers, etc have had to make a deep run.

[NewEra]

23 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Why we looking back 7 games?  All way back to 2020?

 

Im looking at recent games: 2022-2024.  Yeah Cincy could have easily scored 30, if they didnt take the foot off gas and we would've needed 30 against KC.  Point being, what did we "need" to score to win based on game.

 

Agree offense underperformed.  Sometimes, actually alot of times, I dont think you read other posts.  Sorry youre either incacapable of that or just too lazy.  I mentioned exactly what you said, both underperformed- it is my opinion, the defense has had no answers for Bengals/Chiefs 2022-2024.   There's a reason the investment went there this offseason.

As we all know, he likes to pinpoint specific comments and ignore others in order to try and prove his points

[Toyo321]

To be honest Coleman is not the answer.  He will do a little better this year but nothing mind blowing.  It all comes down to our D Line again.

You have to be able to get the opposing QB on the run and sack him.  The Eagles did this to KC.  We did not.  Our team has failed every year in the playoffs because of this lack of D pressure.

No QB pressure when it counts in the playoffs equals losses every time.  That is why our receivers are so important.  If we cant get the opposing team off the field in a single series of downs.  We need wide receivers that can make the clutch catches and make YAC yards.  Right now Shakir is the only guy that does this.  Coleman has no speed and we signed two more receivers to try and come in and make a difference.  Elijah Moore & Joshua Palmer.  It goes to show that the  faith they have Coleman is not what everyone thinks it is.  I hated us signing Coleman but that ship has sailed so long ago.   

 

All we can do is hope he puts on his superman cape and pulls some sort of miraculous 2nd season performance out of his butt this year, with this team.  

 

We just need to find 3 receivers that when we put them on the field together they wreak havoc on the other team's D and DB's.

 

We have not had that in the JA era.

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I have been saying it all offseason, I really think Coleman is going to silence some critics this year.  Everything coming out has been very positive, including things like Allen publicly talking about how Keon has been in hitting him up all offseason on getting better, understanding more what Allen wants/expects in different situations, etc.  I think we will see an improvement on the guy we saw prior to the injury.  And what people forget is that 1000 yards was on the table before he was hurt in week 11.  At that point he was on pace for 800-900 yards, but that pace was increasing as he started getting more comfortable and involved as the season progressed.  

 

Barring injury, I think a realistic goal for him this season is 900-1100 yards and 8-10 TD's.  And that would be a pretty strong season in his 2nd year in this offense that spreads the ball around.     

 

I think the bottom end of your range is more like the ceiling personally. He is a bit boom and bust Keon and I expect that to continue. He will have 2 or 3 big games and then others where he has 1 catch for 19 yards or something. 

 

I'd be absolutely fine with a year from Keon that is over 800 yards and 6 or 7 touchdowns. But it wouldn't change the way I feel about the Bills' need for a difference maker on the boundary. To be honest even a 1,000 yard season wouldn't. The same way I always pushed back against the "John Brown had a thousand yard season he is a number 1 receiver" narrative that got some push around here coming out of 2019. 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Why we looking back 7 games?  All way back to 2020?

 

Im looking at recent games: 2022-2024.  Yeah Cincy could have easily scored 30, if they didnt take the foot off gas and we would've needed 30 against KC.  Point being, what did we "need" to score to win based on game.

 

Agree offense underperformed.  Sometimes, actually alot of times, I dont think you read other posts.  Sorry youre either incacapable of that or just too lazy.  I mentioned exactly what you said, both underperformed- it is my opinion, the defense has had no answers for Bengals/Chiefs 2022-2024.   There's a reason the investment went there this offseason.

 

 

Since 2020 it's the same QB's and HC's that have been leading the 4 legit SB contenders in the AFC.

 

Obviously.  

 

Drawing some arbitrary line 3 years ago.........as if anything has significantly changed in these rounds.......is simply illogical.

 

But let's look at those last 3 seasons in the divisional and championship round where you claim "the bottom line is the offense is good enough" but the defense requires them to score "30+ points" to win.

 

Offense:  22.5 points scored per game

 

Defense   27.5 allowed..........including only 1 of 4 games over 30 points allowed.

 

We all know why McBeane loaded up on defense.

 

Not the first time Beane has thrown a surprising amount of money at a bunch of cold-product defensive free agents and fans have just assumed they would be better than they were when their prior team released them outright or let them walk.

 

And if Bosa and Hoecht and Ogunjobi never play a down and Hairston, Sanders and Jackson make little-to-no impact as rookies......like Bishop and Carter the year prior.....the Bills will probably be RIGHT BACK in the divisional round against one of those other 3 stud QB's.

 

And it's still anyone's guess which side of the ball will be called upon to make a key play close out that/those game(s).

 

 

Edited 9 hours ago by BADOLBILZ

[MasterStrategist]

38 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Since 2020 it's the same QB's and HC's that have been leading the 4 legit SB contenders in the AFC.

 

Obviously.  

 

Drawing some arbitrary line 3 years ago.........as if anything has significantly changed in these rounds.......is simply illogical.

 

But let's look at those last 3 seasons in the divisional and championship round where you claim "the bottom line is the offense is good enough" but the defense requires them to score "30+ points" to win.

 

Offense:  22.5 points scored per game

 

Defense   27.5 allowed..........including only 1 of 4 games over 30 points allowed.

 

We all know why McBeane loaded up on defense.

 

Not the first time Beane has thrown a surprising amount of money at a bunch of cold-product defensive free agents and fans have just assumed they would be better than they were when their prior team released them outright or let them walk.

 

And if Bosa and Hoecht and Ogunjobi never play a down and Hairston, Sanders and Jackson make little-to-no impact as rookies......like Bishop and Carter the year prior.....the Bills will probably be RIGHT BACK in the divisional round against one of those other 3 stud QB's.

 

And it's still anyone's guess which side of the ball will be called upon to make a key play close out that/those game(s).

 

 

And if you want to go back to 2020, we had an elite QB/Wr combo...with Beas and Brown.

 

And again, we should go for elite offense?

 

This defense has never been able to get off the field in key situations, thats been a sad fact.  

 

Looking back to 2020 is just dumb.  Like these teams are so comparable to now.  But at least we had what you want then- and it still didnt work.

[Richard Noggin]

Liked this bit from Matt Parrino's recent report:

 

Quote

 

“I thought he had an up and down first season,” McDermott said. “He got injured, and then from there on, it was rather rocky, I would say.”

 

Coleman didn’t have any problems with his coach’s assessment of his first NFL season. It lined up with how he felt it went.

“If you and your coaches are not saying the same thing, somebody lying,” Coleman said. “So if y’all have the same general idea on what stuff supposed to look like and what ya’ll want it to look like for the future, then you’ve done a good job self-evaluating yourself and being honest with yourself.”

 

 

Coleman seems like a guy who responds to/needs hard coaching. Humble and hungry. The social media physique police will appreciate Keon's hard work so far this offseason. Seems like the local pundits are also noticing some on-field growth this Spring. 

 

Let's hope it translates. 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

And if you want to go back to 2020, we had an elite QB/Wr combo...with Beas and Brown.

 

And again, we should go for elite offense?

 

This defense has never been able to get off the field in key situations, thats been a sad fact.  

 

Looking back to 2020 is just dumb.  Like these teams are so comparable to now.  But at least we had what you want then- and it still didnt work.

 

 

Everyone but you thinks 2020 and 2021 playoffs matter in the history of Josh Allen and McBeane.

 

13 seconds doesn't hold any meaning anymore?   That's a hot take if ever there was one "Master Strategist".😂

[Alphadawg7]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think the bottom end of your range is more like the ceiling personally. He is a bit boom and bust Keon and I expect that to continue. He will have 2 or 3 big games and then others where he has 1 catch for 19 yards or something. 

 

I'd be absolutely fine with a year from Keon that is over 800 yards and 6 or 7 touchdowns. But it wouldn't change the way I feel about the Bills' need for a difference maker on the boundary. To be honest even a 1,000 yard season wouldn't. The same way I always pushed back against the "John Brown had a thousand yard season he is a number 1 receiver" narrative that got some push around here coming out of 2019. 

 

Brown and Keon each breaking a 1000 yards isn't really comparable though IMHO.  Keon breaking 1000 yards in his 2nd season will be more significant in a spread the ball around offense that balances with a run game than John Brown doing it late in his career as an anomaly when we ran a pass happy offense with less options to throw to and lacked a balanced run game.

 

There is more than one way to be a difference maker as a boundary WR, and there are guys who are slower than Keon who have been top end boundary WR's, so what he can or can't be on the boundary is still yet to be known IMHO.  What they need from Keon is to be the best version of himself, they will fill in guys around him who have different strengths than Keon as they are building this team more around skills sets and roles.  

 

And to your point of being fine with this type if season...If Keon can grow into a role where he can consistently be a 900-1100 yard WR in this style of offense, he will be a pretty good player for us over that span.  And that is all we need him to be, he doesn't have to blossom into say a top 10 WR in the NFL even, just needs to do what he does at a high level and he is going to help this team win games.

 

Edited 2 hours ago by Alphadawg7

[RoscoeParrish]

52 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Brown and Keon each breaking a 1000 yards isn't really comparable though IMHO.  Keon breaking 1000 yards in his 2nd season will be more significant in a spread the ball around offense that balances with a run game than John Brown doing it late in his career as an anomaly when we ran a pass happy offense with less options to throw to and lacked a balanced run game

FWIW, 2019 wasn’t that pass happy and there are a fair amount of similarities, including the best WR on the team being a very good slot guy.