James Cook absent from OTA's

[DCofNC]

8 hours ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Right - but that's kind of the point.  Would the team be better off spending more on OL or WR than running back?  

 

With Saquan - they had 1874 rushing yards and a 4.1 YPC average

Without Saquan - they had 1783 rushing yards and a 4.2 YPC average

I’m 1000% on board with spend on the line and plug in the back.  I think there are guys out there, like Saquon that can make a big impact when they have that line, but I see a lot of people saying the Bills have a dominant line and I don’t see a RB that takes over anything.  Cook is a GOOD starter with limitations, I think you are looking at a DeAndre Swift situation.  Yeah, he’s fast and he’s valuable behind this line, but take away gapping holes and he’s not a difference maker.   Saquon, CMC, Henry etc have no holes in their game, Cook has a massive issue with blocking which means he can’t be left in there to chip on passing downs so his presence telegraphs the play call to the D.  
 

He can keep screwing around and find himself wondering how Ray Davis took his starting gig while he sat out.  Davis can do it all, might not be as explosive, but he’s going to be here for 3 years and Cook probably isn’t.  

[QLBillsFan]

5 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

10m is not well paid for the type of player he is. That's an underpay. That's what 30 year old Aaron Jones is being paid. Josh Jacobs is making 12m. Alvin Kamara at 29, who's a very similar RB is making 12.5. 

 

It's fine to say that you personally wouldn't pay for a RB. But to suggest 10m is "well paid" or a solid offer for who he is isn't accurate.

He barely plays 50% of the snaps. The Bills are better with him. But 10-12m is his max. Plenty of guys would love the O he plays with. He could excel, win a SB, and long term make more $$ in Buffalo. 

[qwksilver]

It seems to me it should be a 4 yr deal worth 60 million with a nice backlog figure and an out in 3 years. Everybody wins.

He has traits most rbs don't. If he could pass block it would be a no brainer. Plus the cap goes up every year so why bicker about 3 million aav.

[SCBills]

10 minutes ago, qwksilver said:

It seems to me it should be a 4 yr deal worth 60 million with a nice backlog figure and an out in 3 years. Everybody wins.

He has traits most rbs don't. If he could pass block it would be a no brainer. Plus the cap goes up every year so why bicker about 3 million aav.

Pass Blocking in the NFL isn’t just a “nice to have” quality in a feature back, it’s a must have. 
 

Also, he was 19th in Rush Attempts.. over 100 behind Saquan, Henry and Kyren Williams. 
 

 

Edited 10 hours ago by SCBills

[Billsfed1]

7 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

10m is not well paid for the type of player he is. That's an underpay. That's what 30 year old Aaron Jones is being paid. Josh Jacobs is making 12m. Alvin Kamara at 29, who's a very similar RB is making 12.5. 

 

It's fine to say that you personally wouldn't pay for a RB. But to suggest 10m is "well paid" or a solid offer for who he is isn't accurate.

I think both points are true.  10 is arguably light if you consider what his assumed growth would be, however 15 is too high.

 

Where i’m struggling with it is every guy that had a chance to seek greener pastures, up to and including Josh Allen took less to play in Buffalo.  

 

A compromise at the high-end for Cook is in the middle, but he likely feels he’ll get the 15 elsewhere (and he’s probably right about that…31 other teams, surely one of them will overpay).

 

I’m just watching this situation from afar and am totally judging Cook like my two cats judge me on a daily basis.

 

Every other player put the team first ahead of their own finances because they want to win…that’s got to count for something.

Edited 9 hours ago by Billsfed1

[BillsFanForever19]

5 hours ago, QLBillsFan said:

He barely plays 50% of the snaps. The Bills are better with him. But 10-12m is his max. Plenty of guys would love the O he plays with. He could excel, win a SB, and long term make more $$ in Buffalo. 

 

Yes, he plays only 50% of snaps. But that's what we do with him here. Other teams may see a bigger role for him. And they may look at it is a net positive more than a negative because not only will he be 26 at the point of signing, he will have less wear and tear than most 26 year old Running Backs.

 

Bills fans like to focus only on the negatives on the scouting report, usage in our system and pass blocking abilities (or lack thereof) to argue he should make less than market value. While ignoring the positives like age, wear and tear, stats, big plays at big times, speed, elusiveness, etc.

 

For every RB (or any player for that matter), you can find negative things. They still get paid. Guys like McCaffrey and Barkley have had multiple serious injuries and are older than Cook. Kamara is at 12.5 and while he does stay on the field more, he is 29 and has had injuries. He also wasn't a great pass blocker in the beginning and grew into becoming better at it. 10m is the number 30 year old Aaron Jones is paid. There's no way James Cook is paid the same as Aaron Jones at 30 years old.

 

10-12m might be *your* max for what you'd be willing to pay him for his role in Buffalo. But I guarantee you, that's not what he'll be signing for. Whether that's here or elsewhere. Your absolute max price is about 500k to 1m less than what I'd expect the low number to be if he has another season like last year - based on recent contracts for the position and the continual rise in cap.

 

3 hours ago, Billsfed1 said:

Where i’m struggling with it is every guy that had a chance to seek greener pastures, up to and including Josh Allen took less to play in Buffalo.  

 

A compromise at the high-end for Cook is in the middle, but he likely feels he’ll get the 15 elsewhere (and he’s probably right about that…31 other teams, surely one of them will overpay).

 

Everyone? You mean this season? Bc I can think of a number of people who have left us for more money elsewhere over the years. Tremaine Edmunds, Gabe Davis, Harrison Phillips, Leonard Floyd, Jordan Phillips, Shaq Lawson, even guys like Levi Wallace and Dane Jackson left when someone offered them slightly more money than what we'd pay.

 

The RB position is a different situation too. Often times you've got one chance to really cash in. As once a RB hits 30, they're more often than not the same player. 

Edited 6 hours ago by BillsFanForever19

[transplantbillsfan]

15 hours ago, RoscoeParrish said:

I think you have the mirage part backwards.

 

the extension doesn’t factor in this season because they are already under contract. You aren’t getting an extra year, they are already here.

 

There’s a reason this isn’t done by anybody, including agents and that’s a good thing.

 

Do you want Cook’s agent to say, “well, technically a 3 for $45M is really like 4 for $50M so we want an extension at 3 years for $55M?”

 

Did we give Bernard and Shakir signing bonus money already or not? If we didn't and no money towards the new contract is allocated towards the player until next year then your line of thinking makes sense. However, we both know that's not the case and the contract actually starts in many ways this season, which would include any CAP savings we get from it. Oh, and extending Cook would give us more CAP savings this season than any of our other extensions.

[GunnerBill]

15 hours ago, RoscoeParrish said:

It’s certainly possible. 
 

I was kind of assuming a discount with those ballpark numbers. 
 

Edwards has made no money his whole career. He was signed and extended for backup OG money after being a day 3 pick. He’s 28, which means this could be his only payday. I think he’s supremely underrated as a very consistent IOL guy. 
 

Getting him at 3y $7M AAV would be a steal. I bet he gets closer to $10M imo.

 

I think Edwards will walk after this year. The thing that stopped him getting good FA money when he left the Rams was injury. He has always been a good NFL starting guard, but he struggled staying healthy in his time there. If he plays a full year in 2025 to back up a full year in 2024 and continues to be a kind of 7/10 most weeks type performer he will go to the highest bidder next spring and the Bills would probably be looking at about a 5th round comp in value (obviously depending what else they do). The Bills will then either extend or use the RFA tag on Alec Anderson and let him and Tylan Grable have a competition for that spot at a guess. It is why Chase Lundt is a very interesting selection. While the Bills have a settled OL group this year there is potential for some movement next year and I think they see Lundt as a guy who could shift inside and compete or at least offer depth at guard. 

 

McGovern I think will stay and I think his number will come in around $10m AAV. 

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, DCofNC said:

I’m 1000% on board with spend on the line and plug in the back.  I think there are guys out there, like Saquon that can make a big impact when they have that line, but I see a lot of people saying the Bills have a dominant line and I don’t see a RB that takes over anything.  Cook is a GOOD starter with limitations, I think you are looking at a DeAndre Swift situation.  Yeah, he’s fast and he’s valuable behind this line, but take away gapping holes and he’s not a difference maker.   Saquon, CMC, Henry etc have no holes in their game, Cook has a massive issue with blocking which means he can’t be left in there to chip on passing downs so his presence telegraphs the play call to the D.  
 

He can keep screwing around and find himself wondering how Ray Davis took his starting gig while he sat out.  Davis can do it all, might not be as explosive, but he’s going to be here for 3 years and Cook probably isn’t.  

 

Oh he is WAAAY better than DeAndre Swift. And I disagree he isn't a difference maker without gaping holes. The whole point about Cook is he makes the most of holes that are not gaping because he has elite vision. Did he have some runs last year where the Bills line just blew guys off the ball and he exploded through untouched? Yep. But he had multiple runs in that 8 to 20 yard bracket where a back with less vision is stopped at the line, or for a gain of one. 

 

While you are right he isn't a great pass blocker (nor is Ray Davis mind you, that's why Ty does it) if the Bills end up going from Cook to Davis that is a significant downgrade at the position. Normally I'd be like "meh, it's a downgrade at running back, who cares?" but the fact is until this offense gets better at generating explosive plays in the pass game outside of scramble drill those explosive runs are going to matter. 

13 hours ago, BigAl2526 said:

I wish I could say I was surprised at his absence.  It's what disgruntled players do.  I think he and his agent have both overestimated his contractual value to the Bills, so this has the makings of a difficult relationship this year.  Only Cook and his agent have any idea about whether or not he will play this season under the terms of his rookie deal, which is still in effect for the upcoming season.  I think that is what Beane is hoping.  He's pretty sure that if Cook does play, it will be his last season as a Bill.  After the season, Cook will put himself on the market and go to the highest bidder.  The overriding question is, if Cook holds out, what will Beane do?  Play hardball and levy a fine for every day he sits after attendance becomes mandatory?  Attempt to trade him to a team that doesn't think $15 million a year is too much?  Cave, and pay Cook what he wants?  Of course, trading depends on finding a willing trade partner, and Buffalo would be trading from a position of weakness.    

 

He will play the season. 100%. He won't be here for OTAs. He won't be here for mandatory minicamp at a guess. He might not show up day 1 for camp. But by the tail of end of camp Cook will be here, he will be practicing and he will be ready for the season. 

[Doc Brown]

58 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Yes, he plays only 50% of snaps. But that's what we do with him here. Other teams may see a bigger role for him. And they may look at it is a net positive more than a negative because not only will he be 26 at the point of signing, he will have less wear and tear than most 26 year old Running Backs.

 

The RB position is a different situation too. Often times you've got one chance to really cash in. As once a RB hits 30, they're more often than not the same player. 

After age 27 is where you usually see a pretty quick dropoff at RB regardless of wear and tear.  Peak seasons of a RB are usually between the ages of 24 and 26.  For historical context, even Thurman Thomas had a drop off at age 27 going from 4.8 ypc to 3.7 ypc.  Cook's brother's best years were when he was 25 and 26 before being cut when he was 27 despite coming off a pro bowl season.  The Vikings who are very analytics driven could see first hand the decline in speed.  The Jets in all their brilliance couldn't.  Maybe James Cook can defy the odds after next season but I'd be fine with another team taking that gamble.  

[DCofNC]

4 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Yes, he plays only 50% of snaps. But that's what we do with him here. Other teams may see a bigger role for him. And they may look at it is a net positive more than a negative because not only will he be 26 at the point of signing, he will have less wear and tear than most 26 year old Running Backs.

 

Bills fans like to focus only on the negatives on the scouting report, usage in our system and pass blocking abilities (or lack thereof) to argue he should make less than market value. While ignoring the positives like age, wear and tear, stats, big plays at big times, speed, elusiveness, etc.

 

For every RB (or any player for that matter), you can find negative things. They still get paid. Guys like McCaffrey and Barkley have had multiple serious injuries and are older than Cook. Kamara is at 12.5 and while he does stay on the field more, he is 29 and has had injuries. He also wasn't a great pass blocker in the beginning and grew into becoming better at it. 10m is the number 30 year old Aaron Jones is paid. There's no way James Cook is paid the same as Aaron Jones at 30 years old.

 

10-12m might be *your* max for what you'd be willing to pay him for his role in Buffalo. But I guarantee you, that's not what he'll be signing for. Whether that's here or elsewhere. Your absolute max price is about 500k to 1m less than what I'd expect the low number to be if he has another season like last year - based on recent contracts for the position and the continual rise in cap.

 

 

Everyone? You mean this season? Bc I can think of a number of people who have left us for more money elsewhere over the years. Tremaine Edmunds, Gabe Davis, Harrison Phillips, Leonard Floyd, Jordan Phillips, Shaq Lawson, even guys like Levi Wallace and Dane Jackson left when someone offered them slightly more money than what we'd pay.

 

The RB position is a different situation too. Often times you've got one chance to really cash in. As once a RB hits 30, they're more often than not the same player. 

You are probably accurate on his market value and the point is, either he wants to win and is willing to take a home team discount or he’s the greedy douche he looks like and is only looking to get paid.   I’m sure he’ll look great in a Browns uniform next year.
 

[DCofNC]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Oh he is WAAAY better than DeAndre Swift. And I disagree he isn't a difference maker without gaping holes. The whole point about Cook is he makes the most of holes that are not gaping because he has elite vision. Did he have some runs last year where the Bills line just blew guys off the ball and he exploded through untouched? Yep. But he had multiple runs in that 8 to 20 yard bracket where a back with less vision is stopped at the line, or for a gain of one. 

 

While you are right he isn't a great pass blocker (nor is Ray Davis mind you, that's why Ty does it) if the Bills end up going from Cook to Davis that is a significant downgrade at the position. Normally I'd be like "meh, it's a downgrade at running back, who cares?" but the fact is until this offense gets better at generating explosive plays in the pass game outside of scramble drill those explosive runs are going to matter. 

 

He will play the season. 100%. He won't be here for OTAs. He won't be here for mandatory minicamp at a guess. He might not show up day 1 for camp. But by the tail of end of camp Cook will be here, he will be practicing and he will be ready for the season. 

I don’t know that I agree he’s “way better” than Swift, their careers aren’t all that different.  They both put up great averages in limited numbers, got over 1k in yards when given more carries behind a great line and then Swift wanted to be paid so he went to the highest bidder and we see reality again.   The difference is really that Cook got the opportunity to play more early in his career than Swift did. 
 

Is Cook better? Yeah, I think he’s a better player, but is the gap all that big?  I don’t think so.  Their numbers are nearly identical when you put Swift in Philly.  The Bills line is in their level, and the threat of the QB is larger in Buffalo.  
 

We’ll see if Cook is what he thinks he is this year, if he comes to camp late or plays games, don’t be surprised when McD names one of the other guys the starter and won’t let Cook get touches for 6 weeks.   McD plays favorites and he favors those who are out there doing the work.  If Cook can come in and force his way back into the line up and produce, then good for him, but I’m absolutely not going to be surprised to watch his carry total be cut in half for the early part of the year if he plays games.

[Ga boy]

8 hours ago, qwksilver said:

It seems to me it should be a 4 yr deal worth 60 million with a nice backlog figure and an out in 3 years. Everybody wins.

He has traits most rbs don't. If he could pass block it would be a no brainer. Plus the cap goes up every year so why bicker about 3 million aav.

I would like your deal at $50 million.  Pay him 12.5 per plus 1 million for 1000 yards, plus 1 million for 14 games, subtract 100K per fumble, an out in 3 years.  This is a deal that would make JC smile.  He’s a Porsch which costs more than a Camaro.

[Ga boy]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Oh he is WAAAY better than DeAndre Swift. And I disagree he isn't a difference maker without gaping holes. The whole point about Cook is he makes the most of holes that are not gaping because he has elite vision. Did he have some runs last year where the Bills line just blew guys off the ball and he exploded through untouched? Yep. But he had multiple runs in that 8 to 20 yard bracket where a back with less vision is stopped at the line, or for a gain of one. 

 

While you are right he isn't a great pass blocker (nor is Ray Davis mind you, that's why Ty does it) if the Bills end up going from Cook to Davis that is a significant downgrade at the position. Normally I'd be like "meh, it's a downgrade at running back, who cares?" but the fact is until this offense gets better at generating explosive plays in the pass game outside of scramble drill those explosive runs are going to matter. 

 

He will play the season. 100%. He won't be here for OTAs. He won't be here for mandatory minicamp at a guess. He might not show up day 1 for camp. But by the tail of end of camp Cook will be here, he will be practicing and he will be ready for the season. 

I like your highlights of how special JC is.  He leaves a lot of guys grasping at air.  Since we don’t have a burner WR, he brings the quick that makes everyone better.  We don’t need 3 yards and a cloud of rubber dust.  I say he gets his 12.5 million bag before camp.

[DrDawkinstein]

14 minutes ago, Ga boy said:

I would like your deal at $50 million.  Pay him 12.5 per plus 1 million for 1000 yards, plus 1 million for 14 games, subtract 100K per fumble, an out in 3 years.  This is a deal that would make JC smile.  He’s a Porsch which costs more than a Camaro.

 

$50M isnt going to get it done, but you can easily get under the a $12M "average" even at $60.

 

He has 1 yr left at $5M, add on 4/$60 with 1 void year, and all of a sudden it's 6/$65M ($10.8M/yr avg) and we have him locked up and affordable for what will likely be his entire career.

[GunnerBill]

31 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

I don’t know that I agree he’s “way better” than Swift, their careers aren’t all that different.  They both put up great averages in limited numbers, got over 1k in yards when given more carries behind a great line and then Swift wanted to be paid so he went to the highest bidder and we see reality again.   The difference is really that Cook got the opportunity to play more early in his career than Swift did. 
 

Is Cook better? Yeah, I think he’s a better player, but is the gap all that big?  I don’t think so.  Their numbers are nearly identical when you put Swift in Philly.  The Bills line is in their level, and the threat of the QB is larger in Buffalo.  
 

We’ll see if Cook is what he thinks he is this year, if he comes to camp late or plays games, don’t be surprised when McD names one of the other guys the starter and won’t let Cook get touches for 6 weeks.   McD plays favorites and he favors those who are out there doing the work.  If Cook can come in and force his way back into the line up and produce, then good for him, but I’m absolutely not going to be surprised to watch his carry total be cut in half for the early part of the year if he plays games.

 

Cook has been in the league three seasons. His worst year ypa is better than all but one of Swift's five seasons in the league. Where they are similar is they both have the ability to stop their feet and then accelerate and burst quickly.  But Swift doesn't have nearly Cook's vision. His misses too many holes. Sure, when you put a line that blows people off the ball in front of him he can be a big play threat. But he doesn't have the consistency in finding the smaller running lanes of Cook. 

 

And no, McDermott doesn't play favourites. He plays the guys who can help the team win. 

[Ga boy]

6 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

$50M isnt going to get it done, but you can easily get under the a $12M "average" even at $60.

 

He has 1 yr left at $5M, add on 4/$60 with 1 void year, and all of a sudden it's 6/$65M ($10.8M/yr avg) and we have him locked up and affordable for what will likely be his entire career.

Yea we need the Porsch 🏎️

3 minutes ago, Ga boy said:

Yea we need the Porsch 🏎️

Just another thought.  He’s one of the few RBs that every time he touches the ball you are on the edge of your seat thinking that this could be big.

[qwksilver]

39 minutes ago, Ga boy said:

I would like your deal at $50 million.  Pay him 12.5 per plus 1 million for 1000 yards, plus 1 million for 14 games, subtract 100K per fumble, an out in 3 years.  This is a deal that would make JC smile.  He’s a Porsch which costs more than a Camaro.

That's my point. With the cap going up 10+ million every year why bicker about 2.5 per.

[Ga boy]

2 minutes ago, qwksilver said:

That's my point. With the cap going up 10+ million every year why bicker about 2.5 per.

Likewise, to those who say we don’t need him, I ask does he increase our chances of winning our first SB?  I see a million heads nodding, so why quibble over a few million.  It’s not our money anyway. 😂

[RoscoeParrish]

5 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Did we give Bernard and Shakir signing bonus money already or not? If we didn't and no money towards the new contract is allocated towards the player until next year then your line of thinking makes sense. However, we both know that's not the case and the contract actually starts in many ways this season, which would include any CAP savings we get from it. Oh, and extending Cook would give us more CAP savings this season than any of our other extensions.

Giving them signing bonus money is not equivalent to their cap hit. 
 

Bernard signed a deal reported for 4 for $42M.

 

His cap hit for 2026, 2027, 2028 and 2029 equals….. $41.6M. With a void year worth $1.3M in 2030.

 

So his cap hit over his 4 year extension, not including 2025, is exactly what his deal was signed for.

 

There’s a reason why your mirage doesn’t work and no one says that. It isn’t a 5 year deal. He’s under contract in 2025 regardless.

 

No one says DK Metcalf really signed a lesser deal because he was technically under contract for 1 year left.

 

He signed a 4 year extension for $42M with 1 year left on his deal.  He didn’t sign a 5 year deal for $42M. 

Edited 35 minutes ago by RoscoeParrish