James Cook absent from OTA's

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Cook is scheduled to make $5m this year because of the 4th year rookie performance bonus.

 

Just like the Bernard and Shakir contracts, any extension signed will be partially a mirage because it doesn't factor in this coming season.

 

If we sign Cook to a 3 year $45m extension like he wants, it will actually be a 4 year $50m contract.

 

That's $12.5m AAV.

 

He's worth that and I actually think the fact we did nothing to the RB room indicates we're heading towards an extension. 

 

And as Greg Tompsett always likes to point out, there will be an out midway through the deal if we want to move on.

 

You're going to love my posts that followed the one you quoted.

 

I said pretty much the same thing wrt averaging in the last rookie year. And even tacking on 1 void year to bring it to about $11M/yr even with the "$15M average" on the new deal.

 

The best part is, Beane knows all this better than even we do.

[Doc Brown]

7 minutes ago, klos63 said:

It appears that Beane is doing that. Waiting till the next offseason. 

Good.

[DrDawkinstein]

10 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

Demarco Murray saw his YPC drop a full yard going to Philly from Dallas.

 

the underrated part of this discussion is the OL.

 

Edwards is an FA next year. McGovern the year after. Are we letting them walk to pay Cook? 

 

8 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Depends how you feel about anderson, grable, clayton, and lundt.  You also have Torrence coming up on free agency in 2027.  

 

Should be able to keep them all together.

 

Cook is looking to make about as much as we just paid Shakir.

 

We do not have a top WR who will command $20-30M. Knox will be coming off the books soon too.

 

So we have Josh as the big money. Re-sign most of the OL (I think Edwards may walk either way), and keep our valued skill-position difference makers in the $12-15M range.

 

All doable. Especially with streaming money hitting the cap increase every year.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

You're going to love my posts that followed the one you quoted.

 

I said pretty much the same thing wrt averaging in the last rookie year. And even tacking on 1 void year to bring it to about $11M/yr even with the "$15M average" on the new deal.

 

The best part is, Beane knows all this better than even we do.

 

If you structure it like philly you can add another void year every year he plays here.  so it starts as a 4yr deal with 1 void year.  Then each year the option bonus triggers you spread the cap hit over 4 years again.  You end up with a dead money hit the year he leaves, but it keeps the cap hits low while they're here. 

 

I'm not sure i love that model for a back though, as they don't play usually play well into their 30s so you're almost guaranteed to see a big dead money number vs. say a lineman who you can extend again to keep the void money as bonus and not load as much of it into a single season.  

[Doc Brown]

2 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

I don't think a holdout is going to occur while he's on his rookie deal.  If he were tagged maybe, but he really hasn't earned very much money yet.  His salary went up considerably this year, but none of it is guaranteed and he won't get it until they start playing the games. 

 

On a holdout on a rookie deal we can reduce or dismiss his fines if he ends up showing up, or getting a new deal.  

The solution is really is really easy to avoid any kind of holdout and I'd love for somebody to tell me if you can add incentives to a rookie contract on the final year of a deal.  If he can get up to maybe $3m in incentives you'd still get maximum effort from him, keep him from being a distraction, and not have to commit long term.

[Einstein]

I used to be in the “RB are a dime a dozen” camp … but every time I think bank to last season, I get nervous about the idea of not having Cook.

 

That 4th down TD he had against KC was pretty eye opening. Very, very, very few offensive players in the NFL score there. The defender had him dead to rights.

 

I still have a hard time with the idea of paying a RB $15M, but I also recognize that Cook is special. I hope they find a middle ground.

And I hope he gets off social media.

 

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, Doc Brown said:

The solution is really is really easy to avoid any kind of holdout and I'd love for somebody to tell me if you can add incentives to a rookie contract on the final year of a deal.  If he can get up to maybe $3m in incentives you'd still get maximum effort from him, keep him from being a distraction, and not have to commit long term.

 

I'm not entirely sure if you can - rookie deals are weird, especially non 1st round picks.  I know he is in year 4, so he is eligible to negotiate an extension - but I don't know how much they can do to the current deal without an extension.  

[RoscoeParrish]

4 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Just like the Bernard and Shakir contracts, any extension signed will be partially a mirage because it doesn't factor in this coming season.

 

If we sign Cook to a 3 year $45m extension like he wants, it will actually be a 4 year $50m contract.

 

That's $12.5m AAV.

I think you have the mirage part backwards.

 

the extension doesn’t factor in this season because they are already under contract. You aren’t getting an extra year, they are already here.

 

There’s a reason this isn’t done by anybody, including agents and that’s a good thing.

 

Do you want Cook’s agent to say, “well, technically a 3 for $45M is really like 4 for $50M so we want an extension at 3 years for $55M?”

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

If you structure it like philly you can add another void year every year he plays here.  so it starts as a 4yr deal with 1 void year.  Then each year the option bonus triggers you spread the cap hit over 4 years again.  You end up with a dead money hit the year he leaves, but it keeps the cap hits low while they're here. 

 

I'm not sure i love that model for a back though, as they don't play usually play well into their 30s so you're almost guaranteed to see a big dead money number vs. say a lineman who you can extend again to keep the void money as bonus and not load as much of it into a single season.  

 

I'm not a big void year guy either. But it is a tool that can be used, and Beane has used it before on even greater risk players (an injured Hyde at the end of his career, for example).

 

But like we've said, even just 1 year changes the numbers significantly. And lets us pay him his desired "15 mil year", while the average and cap hit is more like $11M.

[BillsFan130]

20 minutes ago, klos63 said:

I think a 2nd round pick should be expected to be here for a 2nd contract.  With Singletary and Moss, using 3rd round picks for 1 contract made some sense. 

That's fair and I see your point. Personally I'm just not a big fan of paying second contracts to running backs. (Unless you're elite like CMC, Barkley or Henry)

[RoscoeParrish]

5 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

Should be able to keep them all together.

 

Cook is looking to make about as much as we just paid Shakir.

 

We do not have a top WR who will command $20-30M. Knox will be coming off the books soon too.

 

So we have Josh as the big money. Re-sign most of the OL (I think Edwards may walk either way), and keep our valued skill-position difference makers in the $12-15M range.

 

All doable. Especially with streaming money hitting the cap increase every year.

I’m not sure.

 

OL feels like one of those positions where they ALWAYS get overpaid in FA. They make take a premium to keep together.

 

I love Cook. I think he’s our biggest non-Josh threat on offense. I’m not sure he will be 2 years from now and “paying everyone” limits your roster flexibility in a way that makes me a bit uncomfortable. 

 

I don’t want to wake up in 2026 with a Cody Ford/Roger Saffold type OL liability.

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

He is, period.

 

Plus, while we speak in averages, it wont be $15M every year. If anything, it will help our cap situation over the next couple of years.

 

Even Barkley's big $20M/yr deal has him with only a $6M hit in 2025. Funny enough, Henry who everyone references at "$8M/yr" will hit closer to $13M this year and have the Ravens at the biggest spenders on RB in 2025.

 

Here are the top spenders on RBs, all the teams I could grab in one screenshot. Buffalo is currently at 18th. If we want to continue to have a top Offense, we will have to come up from that and keep the top talent we have.

 

With the rest of the guys on the roster, we could pay Cook and still stay in that top 3-6 range. Not having to take the top spot and biggest spend.

 

 

No.  I don't know what else to say.  Cook will play his ass off this season to get a new contract, then Davis or somone else will take over.

 

We don't need Cook for a top offense.

[klos63]

1 minute ago, BillsFan130 said:

That's fair and I see your point. Personally I'm just not a big fan of paying second contracts to running backs. (Unless you're elite like CMC, Barkley or Henry)

I agree,  i just think that Cook has the skill set to be elite, and last year I think he was. 

[SCBills]

How would yall rate the significance of an extension amongst these key guys coming up for deals/potential deals next year?

 

McGovern

Torrence

Cook

Bosa

 

Because those seem to be the guys we’ll be having convos over if McGovern isn’t extended before the season.. and that’s how I’d rank them, unless Bosa has a great year, and then I’d be tempted to move him ahead of Cook as well. 

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, RoscoeParrish said:

I’m not sure.

 

OL feels like one of those positions where they ALWAYS get overpaid in FA. They make take a premium to keep together.

 

I love Cook. I think he’s our biggest non-Josh threat on offense. I’m not sure he will be 2 years from now and “paying everyone” limits your roster flexibility in a way that makes me a bit uncomfortable. 

 

I don’t want to wake up in 2026 with a Cody Ford/Roger Saffold type OL liability.

 

They wont hit FA. Beane will have McGovern and Torrence extended before they hit FA. Its already been reported that talks with McGovern have started.

[Doc Brown]

8 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

I'm not entirely sure if you can - rookie deals are weird, especially non 1st round picks.  I know he is in year 4, so he is eligible to negotiate an extension - but I don't know how much they can do to the current deal without an extension.  

I'm almost positive they can but not 100%.  The question then comes in whether the performance based incentives are likely to be earned (counts against the cap) or not likely to be earned (won't impact camp unless player reaches it).  I'm still a little fuzzy on who makes that determination.

[DCofNC]

32 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

He went from 962 yards and a 3.9 YPC to 2005 and a 5.8 YPC average.  3 years before he had 593 and a 3.7 YPC average.  I don't know how you can say its "false".  

 

Swift went from 1049 and 4.6 YPC with philly, to 959 and 3.8 YPC after leaving.  

Barkley had injuries and absolute zero threat of the pass in his years with the Giants, the only reason he looked “bad” was the dog crap around him and injury.  
 

If you want to follow the logic you are using, then Cook is a product of the system and would be garbage elsewhere.

36 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Ty Johnson is a ONE down back!

Cool, so if he played 3x as much, he’s worth 6M a year.  So Cook is a 2 down guy, guess he’s worth 4M by your standards.

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Isnt that a good thing? We arent risking Josh's health anymore because we finally have a decent run game and a good running back who CAN score.

 

Josh needs more weapons! (But let Cook walk)

Josh risks his health running so much! (But let Cook walk)

 

It is a good thing. Absolutely. But am I ready to pay him $15M a season for one year of that? No. Let's see if that was an exception or a baseline before shelling out top dollars is all I'm saying. 

1 hour ago, klos63 said:

Your going to discount the value of his touchdowns scored?

Scoring from the red zone is critical,  he should be lauded for that.  

How about the 4th down td in the championship game... no big deal?

Cook also broke many big runs too, 60+ yards td, a few 40+ yarders.

He had a tremendous season,  worthy of a 2nd round pick and the Bills should do everytime everything in their power to sign him.  If they don't,  they should not waste a 2nd round pick on a player they don't want to extend,  the pick is too valuable. 

Not discounting TDs at all. But how many of those were because Cook is elite and how many of those could have been punched in by Johnson/Davis and can be in the future at a much cheaper price is the question.

 

I think having him prove it this season is the smart move. The absolute worst thing that Beane could do here is cave, pay him top end money and see his TDs sharply decline while his fumble and dropping passes problems come back up. Remember, it wasn't that long ago he was riding pine due to these issues. I'd like to think he turned the corner. If he shows it this year, cool. Pay the dude. 

 

He had an EXCEPTIONAL season last year. And if he put in the work and solved his past issues along with becoming a TD machine he will have another one this year. And he will get paid. 

[Doc Brown]

2 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

Barkley had injuries and absolute zero threat of the pass in his years with the Giants, the only reason he looked “bad” was the dog crap around him and injury.  
 

If you want to follow the logic you are using, then Cook is a product of the system and would be garbage elsewhere.

Shows you the value of an offensive line when even an elite RB on a poor line can only give you 3.9ypc.  Meanwhile, he goes to the Eagles with a great o-line along with a dual threat QB and puts up video game numbers with 2005 yards rushing and 5.8ypc..  You saw the same thing happen with Derrick Henry with a great o-line with the Ravens and a dual threat QB.  He averaged 4.2 ypc with a mediocre o-line and then 5.9 ypc for 1,921 yards with a good offensive line in Baltimore and probably the most dual threat QB's in the league  We have those elements in place but just don't have an elite back that can take advantage of it.

[JaCrispy]

21 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

I think you have the mirage part backwards.

 

the extension doesn’t factor in this season because they are already under contract. You aren’t getting an extra year, they are already here.

 

There’s a reason this isn’t done by anybody, including agents and that’s a good thing.

 

Do you want Cook’s agent to say, “well, technically a 3 for $45M is really like 4 for $50M so we want an extension at 3 years for $55M?”

I’ll always remember his dive into the endzone vs KC in the championship….it was legendary!