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Mandatory Minicamp


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What happens when Bills fans, anxiety, boredom,  not much going on yet to talk about  and utter fanaticism are joined together?

 

you get this marvelous venue called TBD

 

I'm not gonna lie. I am here for the IQ heavyweights. The piffle I disregard and keep it moving.

 

But that's just me.

 

edit: reposting to the correct thread. My bad. Camp info is Not piffle 🙂

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Just now, eball said:

 

Of course.

Fair enough!

 

In the bottom 5 units of the last 4 years, the QBs (that played the most) are:

 

Heinecke, Big Ben, Carr, Cam Newton, Drew Lock, Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Lamar Jackson, Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan again, Justin Fields, Mariota, Jordan Love, Gardner Minshew, Kyler Murray, Derek Carr again, Kirk Cousins again.

 

again, 1 playoff win between the crew.


The top 5 units of the last 4 years:

 

Kyler Murray, Jared Goff, Joe Burrow, Drew Brees, Teddy Bridgewater, Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, Justin Herbert, Tom Brady, Kyler Murray again, Tua, Derek Carr, Geno Smith, Jimmy G, Tua again, Geno again, Baker, and Sam Howell.

 

Now, at first glance, I think group two looks a bit better as a QB grouping. But for sake of argument, take Allen and Rodgers out because both were playing at MVP levels and that’s gonna skew the numbers a bit. The list below is closer to “league average” QB.

 

Baker - 1 playoff appearance and win with the Bucs in the top 5 group

Miami - 2 playoff appearances in the top 5 group

Brady - 1 playoff appearance in the top 5 group (2022)

Geno - 1 playoff appearance in the top 5 group

Goff - 1 playoff appearance in the top 5 group

 

 

lets look at some of their contemporaries in the bottom 5 group:

 

Heinecke - 1 playoff appearance in the bottom 

Big Ben - 1 playoff appearance in the bottom (2020)

Carr - 1 playoff appearance in the bottom (21)

Jackson - 1 playoff appearance in the bottom (2022)

Love - 1 playoff appearance and win in the bottom. 


I would argue the groups are at least comparable now. I probably lean towards the bottom group being better at the time they played.

 

But that’s the whole point. A great WR group had Baker and Geno and Goff achieving the same success as Lamar or Jordan Love, who imo, are much better. 
 

Now the corollary could be that if you have an athletic franchise QB, they can drag a bottom 5 group to the WC round. But I think we all agreed on that before lol.

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22 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Do we have another kicker in camp? 
 

His career could be ova here. Dan Carpenter had the same thing happen to him. 

I wish we would bring in Jake Bates, the UFL kicker. Looks like a few teams are already checking him out too. Guy has a powerful leg.

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5 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Amputate.

Splenectomy, comes with the territory 

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51 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Big expensive WR's don't guarantee you anything. Agree with that.

 

What do bottom 5 WR rooms guarantee you?

 

In 2023, the 5 teams with bottom 5 WR rooms by AAV went 36-49, collectively.  One team made the postseason and won 1 game.

 

In 2022, the bottom 5 teams went 29-56, collectively. One team made the postseason and lost in the WC round.

 

in 2021, the bottom 5 teams went 37-48, collectively. One team made the postseason and lost in the WC round.

 

In 2020, the bottom 5 teams went 39-41, collectively. Two teams made the postseason, and both lost in the WC round.

 

So a bottom 5 WR group, based on the last 4 seasons, doesn't really seem to be a recipe for success. Right?  1 team in the last 4 seasons WON a SINGLE playoff game. That's the peak of this strategy.

 

For comparison, I can do top 5 WR room numbers. Would guarantee they are much better lol.

 

Also, FYI, the Bills are bottom 5 as it stands in 2024.

 

 

Depressing stats…. But interesting.

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My thoughts on minicamp:

There’s been a lot of hand-wringing over who’s getting a lot of reps (especially from Allen). It’s weird to me that guys who are further down the depth chart getting passes from Allen, during a mini-camp, would be a concern to anybody, but here we are.

 

I think there’s a few things at play here, that aren’t being discussed:

  • With the departure of Siran Neal, and Matekevich, it’s possible the Bills are moving away from ST-only players. Players like Shavers, Isabella, Shorter, and Mack Hollins (and everyone down the depth chart) are going to be looked at for their ST roles, but they’re also going to be evaluated for offensive abilities.
  • This WR room isn’t going to be made up entirely of 6’4” guys who aren’t particularly fast. That would be redundant. Isabella, and Hamler both have top-end speed, exceptional cutting ability, K/PR potential, and have traits that would be unique to the room. They need a gadget guy. IMO, one of these guys is going to make the roster.
  • With so many new, and unproven faces on the roster, as well as Joe Brady installing a new offense that will be tailored to Josh Allen with Allen's input, it is every bit as important for Allen to get an evaluation of every available receiver, as it is for Brady.

In my opinion, Allen should be throwing to every receiver on the current roster, if they’re going to have any chance to show up in training camp. Hell, I think Allen should throw a couple passes at Travis Clayton-- see if he can't be the sixth lineman in a Jumbo Package. If not now, then when? And in disagreement with @HappyDays, I will say there is no such thing as “practice squad fodder." Every player with a number should be ready to be called up.

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8 minutes ago, BillsFooteball said:

If means anything to anyone Martin was the holder today as he was with bass being erratic last year. Bass was an awful 3/7 today. OTA when Browning was holding he was 7/7. Maybe I’m just being hopeful 

3/7? 

Ok, kicker might be added soon.

 

 

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4 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Are the Bills ahead of the curve again?  Those foolish teams with established guys like Tyreek/Waddle or G Wilson/K Allen, Chase/Higgins - that's so last year.

Context of why this is the situation is something you really ought to include in your thought process,  the guys who were let go by the Bills were not getting it done, they had ample chances…, from Diggs on down they faded every post season, do you just run it back again or make changes? The answer is you make changes that are necessary, every team goes through stuff like this at some point or another, about last year…, that Miami team was a monster in the last part of their season…, there guys aren’t getting it done either, and their QB is a huge burden on that team going any farther, especially after paying all their  players that haven’t been getting it done, it’s not just the Bills. 

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54 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Then it’s equally relevant who is throwing them the ball with a top 5 unit, right?

 

I’m not discussing talent. I’m discussing pure contract numbers by AAV.

You’re such a nerd 😂

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Updates from Matt Parrino. Sounds like the offense was much better today, good to see.

 

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The offense got back on track in a HUGE way. Josh Allen looked dialed in from the very start of practice. The passes were buzzing out of his hand and his receivers stepped up.
There are a ton of big plays to get to but let's start with KJ Hamler, who beat Rasul Douglas for a 50yd bomb. Allen dropped it in a bucket for Hamler, who showed off that elite speed. Douglas tried to close the distance but Hamler showed off the second gear.

 

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Kaiir Elam with another interception. If we want to talk about a guy who has made the most of an opportunity this spring, Elam is at the top of the list. Allen was having a practically perfect practice when he tried to zero in on Coleman, who looked to run a great route until the end. It was almost like he stumbled a bit at the end of it and Elam jumped in front and picked off the pass.

 

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Allen was 6-for-9 during 11 and another highlight play went to Coleman, who outworked Douglas on the sideline three plays after the CB had a pass breakup vs. Quintin Morris. Allen buzzed it by Douglas helmet & Coleman showed off his hands to make a catch for about 20-25 yard gain.

Douglas on Keon Coleman after practice: "He's made some plays. He's a cool guy off the field, he's a joker and he's funny."

Douglas came back a few plays after the catch and got physical with Coleman early in the route and broke up a pass intended for him.

 

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Marquez Valdez-Scantling had arguably his best practice. Had a few catches between 11v11 ans 7v7.

 

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Tough day for Justin Shorter. I had him for two drops in practice and this is something that I'm now monitoring closely. Shakir, Samuel, Coleman, MVS, Claypool, and Hamler seem like the top 6 right now. That means Shorter and Shavers are going to have to go nuts in the summer to make the team IMO. Shavers had a drop in practice, too, and I thought it was worse than Shorter's two.

 

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Sorry I should have included Mack Hollins - that was an oversight on my part. I think the Bills are going 7 WRs, folks. Hollins has been a leader all spring and they love his leadership. He could be a captain. 

 

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I wanted to mention UDFA Branson Deen, who has been popping a bit this week. He had a great rush and recorded a pressure by splitting the double team of Keaton Bills and Kevin Jarvis. Bills hasn't looked great but again no pads.

 

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Major punter update: Sam Martin was the holder today for Tyler Bass. Remember in OTAs, Bass was 7for7 with rookie UDFA Jack Browning holding. Bass was erratic today, making just 3 of his 7 kicks with Martin as the holder. If Browning is close to Martin in the punting game, and maybe even if he isn't, we may have a new punter for the Bills this season.

 

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Keep and eye on WR Bryan Thompson, who has had a much better spring than Shavers and Shorter. He had a bomb TD reception from Shane Buechelle and absolutely roasted rookie Keni-H Lovely.

 

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