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Speed: I do the math here


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6 hours ago, PayDaBill$ said:

A lot of other factors come into play, running 40 yds in a straight line isn’t quite the same with gear on, running routes and tracking the ball. It’s just another athleticism metric.


from a nbcsprts.com article in March.

 

 

“Timing of players at the Scouting Combine isn’t just done with stopwatches. It’s also done with chips worn by every player, that tracking their speed during every drill. And last year, that player tracking data showed off the talents of Puka Nacua, a relatively unknown receiver out of BYU who went from fifth-round pick of the Rams to the most productive rookie receiver in NFL history.

Nacua wasn’t great in the traditional tests of athleticism that the NFL has relied on for decades, recording a 4.57-second 40-yard dash. But the player tracking data showed he was the fastest receiver at last year’s Combine in running through the gauntlet drill, in which a receiver runs across the field and catches seven passes in rapid succession. According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Nacua reached the fastest speed of any wide receiver during last year’s gauntlet drill at 20.06 mph. That tipped teams off that Nacua plays faster than he runs, something that Nacua proved in his rookie year.

This year, Florida State wide receiver Keon Coleman was similar to Nacua: Coleman ran a disappointing 40 time of 4.61 seconds, but he reached the fastest speed in the gauntlet drill, topping out at 20.36 mph — even faster than Nacua last year. Coleman also reached the second-fastest speed of any wide receiver in his group while running a go route, reaching 21.71 mph.

The player tracking data is new, and there’s not a long history of being able to study how well it correlates to NFL success. But it may prove that players who show elite speed during the on-field drills that more closely approximate what they do on a football field prove to be better players than the ones who run the fastest in a straight line for 40 yards.

In hindsight, teams wish they had paid more attention to Nacua’s player tracking data than to his stopwatch time. Coleman will hope teams remember that during this year’s draft.”


He’s not SLOW …. He has athleticism & speed in the context of the game.

So Bills are actually at the cutting edge of evaluating here. INteresting. 

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6 hours ago, PayDaBill$ said:

A lot of other factors come into play, running 40 yds in a straight line isn’t quite the same with gear on, running routes and tracking the ball. It’s just another athleticism metric.


from a nbcsprts.com article in March.

 

 

“Timing of players at the Scouting Combine isn’t just done with stopwatches. It’s also done with chips worn by every player, that tracking their speed during every drill. And last year, that player tracking data showed off the talents of Puka Nacua, a relatively unknown receiver out of BYU who went from fifth-round pick of the Rams to the most productive rookie receiver in NFL history.

Nacua wasn’t great in the traditional tests of athleticism that the NFL has relied on for decades, recording a 4.57-second 40-yard dash. But the player tracking data showed he was the fastest receiver at last year’s Combine in running through the gauntlet drill, in which a receiver runs across the field and catches seven passes in rapid succession. According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Nacua reached the fastest speed of any wide receiver during last year’s gauntlet drill at 20.06 mph. That tipped teams off that Nacua plays faster than he runs, something that Nacua proved in his rookie year.

This year, Florida State wide receiver Keon Coleman was similar to Nacua: Coleman ran a disappointing 40 time of 4.61 seconds, but he reached the fastest speed in the gauntlet drill, topping out at 20.36 mph — even faster than Nacua last year. Coleman also reached the second-fastest speed of any wide receiver in his group while running a go route, reaching 21.71 mph.

The player tracking data is new, and there’s not a long history of being able to study how well it correlates to NFL success. But it may prove that players who show elite speed during the on-field drills that more closely approximate what they do on a football field prove to be better players than the ones who run the fastest in a straight line for 40 yards.

In hindsight, teams wish they had paid more attention to Nacua’s player tracking data than to his stopwatch time. Coleman will hope teams remember that during this year’s draft.”


He’s not SLOW …. He has athleticism & speed in the context of the game.

 

This. 

 

This is it exactly. 

 

Besides that, did anyone actually go and watch his 40? Dude's simply not a track star. He started slow because coming out of his stance, he popped up instead of bursting forward. If he had spent more time on the track with someone who knew what they were doing, and could help him with a better start out of his stance, he likely would have shaved AT LEAST 0.1 seconds off, likely more. And no one would be talking about him being slow. But they look at that number, decide he's slow, and ignore everything else, especially his play speed.

 

He LOOKS slow when he's running because his legs don't seem to be moving as fast as you're used to, but when he's trying to outrun people, his stride lengthens, and with his long legs, every one of his strides eats up distance, and he covers ground at a surprising rate. 

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Just now, White Linen said:

 

I give, you win.

 

3 yards is almost 8 feet.

Is that like 4.61 on almost as fast as 4.3 in the 40? If it’s only 8 feet then it’s more like 4.61 is almost as fast as 4.35. Or somewhere in there. I’m not a mathematician like the OP or you apparently. 
 

but I do know that 10 feet is a significant distance in a race as short as 40 yards. 

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1 hour ago, mrags said:

Is that like 4.61 on almost as fast as 4.3 in the 40? If it’s only 8 feet then it’s more like 4.61 is almost as fast as 4.35. Or somewhere in there. I’m not a mathematician like the OP or you apparently. 
 

but I do know that 10 feet is a significant distance in a race as short as 40 yards. 

 

That's the first truth you've said in this thread.  Math isn't your thing.

 

 

Edited by White Linen
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Just now, White Linen said:

 

Use your fingers.

 

That's what she said. 

All this back and forth and I can’t help but feel all warm and fuzzy that you are giving me so much attention. It’s almost like you and the OP are husband and wife. 

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22 minutes ago, mrags said:

All this back and forth and I can’t help but feel all warm and fuzzy that you are giving me so much attention. It’s almost like you and the OP are husband and wife. 

 

Hint

 

There's something else you're not good at.

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9 minutes ago, Gunsgoodtime said:

4.61 hopefully equates to =Brandon fired +McDermott fired. That's the best equation I can come up with

Yeah it won’t. 

21 minutes ago, White Linen said:

 

Hint

 

There's something else you're not good at.

Yeah I guess I’m just no match for your wits and whatever point you’re trying to make. I’ll just have to get on with my life knowing that you got the better of me. 

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10 hours ago, mrags said:

Here. This is much easier to show the difference of speed. Almost the exact times we’re talking about from a 4.6 to a 4.3. It’s actually a lot. 3yrds is almost 10ft. That’s a lot when your talking about separation on a CB. 
 

 

IMG_6637-compressed.png

 

10 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

That's the difference between open and not open

That's only true if the CB knows exactly where you're going and how you'll get there. Most of the game played between WR and CB is disguising that information.

Isn't it telling that AB was the most productive of any of those players by a large margin and was also the slowest?

Edited by BullBuchanan
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Someone shared a link to a really good story about Coleman earlier today.

In it, there was an interesting quote in which he claims to have never been caught from behind by a defender.

 

If that is true, I reckon he's fast enough.

 

Quote

Coleman was asked what he’d say to people who question his speed after running a disappointing 4.61 40-yard dash at the combine. He said to ask defensive backs who he played in college about his speed.

 

“I’ve never been caught- I don’t think I’ve ever been caught from behind,” he said. “I don’t think I’ve ever had the chance to not be able to run by somebody. More so than that, I don’t think there was ever just one DB that just sat when I was running at them. So that pretty much tells you all you need to know. Guys that are saying that about the speed aren’t the guys that are on the field. Your opinions, they’re opinions for a reason. It is what it is.”

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/2024/04/bills-keon-coleman-had-interesting-josh-allen-comment-3-weeks-after-stefon-diggs-trade.html%3FoutputType=amp

 

 

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11 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

So there are a certain number of folks here who are wailing and gnashing teeth over Coleman because he’s not fast.  That we don’t place emphasis on speed.  So let’s do some math and compare a supposed fast time (4.2) with the supposed slow time of 4.6, which if memory serves correct is Coleman.
 

The formula is simple:  40 yards/time gives you how many yards per second.

 

For 4.2:  40/4.2= 9.5 yards/sec

For 4.6:  40/4.6 = 8.7 yards/sec

 

So if you have a guy running 40 yards downfield they’d gain about 3 yards. At 4.2 vs 4.6.  Seems like a significant difference although I haven’t run stats.  But I also don’t consider other variables like time to accelerate to maximum speed, effect of equipment on times, and such.  
 

For me I’d be looking not just for speed, but how fast you get to top speed, how long you can maintain top speed, arm length (longer arms may negate the gap based purely on speed), quickness in getting in and out of breaks.  And likely more if I gave it more thought.  This is why Marcel St. Jacques wrote an article for espn.com indicating the 40 time isn’t very useful anymore.

 

So this kid may not be a sprinter, but he’s quite the athlete (all state basketball), young still, will have height advantages over many corners.  I’m intrigued to see what he and other drafted guys bring to the table.

Speed matters no doubt about it but like u said there's different types of speed and speed is just a part of the equation to making a good to great Wr . There's plenty examples of slower Wrs putting up huge numbers because they have other strengths to lean on and there's also the design of offense they play in and the type of QB they have that factor into this. 

 

I truly believe Josh plays better with separators. Josh is not the most accurate QB and neither is he a conventional drop back timing anticipation QB either. So the problem to me is if Coleman is the right type of Wr for Josh. Wrs like Coleman play better with accurate QBs like Drew Brees or Brady . Big Ben needed fast smaller separators to play at his best and I believe Josh plays more like Ben then those other QBs I mentioned. 

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I think Coleman will be a good player for the Bills at a position of need.  My problem with the pick is that we still need someone to take the top off the opposing D.

 

Double high shell frustrated Josh.  By attacking that shell with speed, that opposing D must respect,it frees up the underneath so Dalton, Samuel, Cook, Shakir, etc can work the middle of the field and underneath.  Bills are still looking for a John Brown replacement.  
 

A sub 4.4 deep threat and Josh would smash that two high shell.

  • Agree 2
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