Who should the Bills draft at 60 in the TSW community mock draft v1.0

[HappyDays]

Fiske already turned 24 in January. Jenkins will be turning 23 in October.

 

I vote Jenkins because I think he's the higher upside player. He made Bruce Feldman's freak list. He's a bit undersized but not as undersized as Fiske.

[JohnBonhamRocks]

Just switched to Jenkins as Kinchens seems a longshot

[buffaloboyinATL]

Round 2 may get be the best time for Beane to trade up, if he doesn’t trade up in round one.  (Or if ends up not taking a WR with our first pick)

[Virgil]

20 more min to cast your vote

[No_Matter_What]

6 hours ago, CNYfan said:

I think our mock may not be an accurate representation of the 2nd round league wide.  My hypothesis is that as a fanbase/board we are overwhelmingly scouting and have the highest interest in the WR group.  This bias is significant beyond what the League in general is prioritizing.  Therefore, the results here are not indicative of what a true 2nd round will look like at the end of April.  

I may be wrong but that is my theory.  

This is spot on.

 

Just to provide some data - I like to read mock draft on one Commanders forum, they do 7 rounds every year and seem pretty knowledgable to me (well, Bills GM made some odd choices this year but that is small sample size).

 

https://es.redskins.com/topic/446775-2024-es-gms-mock-draft/

 

Below is comparison how WRs were taken in both drafts:

 

Marvin Harrison 4 / 5 / +1

Rome Odunze 6 / 10 / +4

Malik Nabers 7 / 9 / + 2

Brian Thomes 12 / 26 / +14

Adonai Mitchell 28 / 32 / +4

Troy Franklin 30 / 46 / +16

Xavier Worthy 33 / 47 / +14

Xavier Legette 35 / 33 / - 2

Ladd McConkey 36 / 36 / 0

Keon Coleman 43 / 49 / +6

Ricky Pearsall 46 / 54 / +8

Roman Wilson 48 / 43 / -5

Malachi Corley 53/ 64 / +11

Jermaine Burton 54 / 72 / +18

Ja'Lynn Polk 58 / 70 / +12

 

So, with 4 more picks in 2nd round to go, in TBD mock draft 6 WRs were selected in the 1st round, 9 in the 2nd (15 total). At their forum, only 5 in the 1st round and 8 in the 2nd (13 total). Only Legette and Wilson were picked a little earlier, McConkey at the same spot, and 12 WRs were picked later, many of them A LOT later (Thomas, Worthy, Burton, Polk). On average, first 15 WRs went 7 spots later than in TBD draft.

 

I know it is just one alternative mock draft but I am pretty sure Bills fans have strong bias towards WRs.

 

EDIT: If draft went their way, Nabers/Odunze would be easier to trade up for, if not Thomas would be basically a Bill, and it would also be much more realistic to trade up for our guy in 2nd round. I really hope/think some of this will be the case in real draft.

Edited April 6 by No_Matter_What

[Kirby Jackson]

6 hours ago, Virgil said:

That’s fair.   I guess I just don’t believe that type of player should be a round 1-3 pick.  I want this picks to be fully time starters by year two.  
 

While I like our roster, I don’t think we are in a place for a luxury pick, which is what that feels like to me.  Granted; we can’t trade in this draft, but I’d trade back and get my starting G/C or Safety. 

I think that this draft has been a great exercise. It shows what a difficult spot 60 might be.

[Kirby Jackson]

2 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:

This is spot on.

 

Just to provide some data - I like to read mock draft on one Commanders forum, they do 7 rounds every year and seem pretty knowledgable to me (well, Bills GM made some odd choices this year but that is small sample size).

 

https://es.redskins.com/topic/446775-2024-es-gms-mock-draft/

 

Below is comparison how WRs were taken in both drafts:

 

Marvin Harrison 4 / 5 / +1

Rome Odunze 6 / 10 / +4

Malik Nabers 7 / 9 / + 2

Brian Thomes 12 / 26 / +14

Adonai Mitchell 28 / 32 / +4

Troy Franklin 30 / 46 / +16

Xavier Worthy 33 / 47 / +14

Xavier Legette 35 / 33 / - 2

Ladd McConkey 36 / 36 / 0

Keon Coleman 43 / 49 / +6

Ricky Pearsall 46 / 54 / +8

Roman Wilson 48 / 43 / -5

Malachi Corley 53/ 64 / +11

Jermaine Burton 54 / 72 / +18

Ja'Lynn Polk 58 / 70 / +12

 

So, with 4 more picks in 2nd round to go, in TBD mock draft 6 WRs were selected in the 1st round, 9 in the 2nd (15 total). At their forum, only 5 in the 1st round and 8 in the 2nd (13 total). Only Legette and Wilson were picked a little earlier, McConkey at the same spot, and 12 WRs were picked later, many of them A LOT later (Thomas, Worthy, Burton, Polk). On average, first 15 WRs went 7 spots later than in TBD draft.

 

I know it is just one alternative mock draft but I am pretty sure Bills fans have strong bias towards WRs.

 

EDIT: If draft went their way, Nabers/Odunze would be easier to trade up for, if not Thomas would be basically a Bill, and it would also be much more realistic to trade up for our guy in 2nd round. I really hope/think some of this will be the case in real draft.

The flip side of it is that the Commanders people don’t have WR in their top 10 needs. If that’s the case, they’re going to be way lower on them than the average team. https://commanderswire.usatoday.com/lists/commanders-roster-needs-positions-2024-offseason-rankings/

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I think that this draft has been a great exercise. It shows what a difficult spot 60 might be.

 

It makes me more confident that the Bills should use a 2025 2nd to trade up into the 40s. I really think coming away with two highly drafted WRs that can play outside is a requirement out of this draft. We have two starting spots open. It makes sense to use the draft value we got back from the Diggs trade to find his replacement.

[FireChans]

10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

It makes me more confident that the Bills should use a 2025 2nd to trade up into the 40s. I really think coming away with two highly drafted WRs that can play outside is a requirement out of this draft. We have two starting spots open. It makes sense to use the draft value we got back from the Diggs trade to find his replacement.

I hope beane is reading your posts my dude.

 

We can get a guy who would be borderline first round WR in 2025 in the mid second this year. Imo, that’s tremendous value for a 2025 pick 50-60.

[Kirby Jackson]

22 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

It makes me more confident that the Bills should use a 2025 2nd to trade up into the 40s. I really think coming away with two highly drafted WRs that can play outside is a requirement out of this draft. We have two starting spots open. It makes sense to use the draft value we got back from the Diggs trade to find his replacement.

That’s certainly on the table. The more of these that you see, the more you realize that it is impossible to wait until 60. If they pass with their first pick (which would be shocking to me), they have to come up. You can’t add the 16th WR as your #1 WR, regardless of how good this draft is at WR. They either have to trade for a vet, trade up in the first, take a WR at 28, or trade up from 60. They have those 4 options but have to walk away with one of the top 8-10 WRs (or 2 of them).

[OldTimer1960]

13 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I hope beane is reading your posts my dude.

 

We can get a guy who would be borderline first round WR in 2025 in the mid second this year. Imo, that’s tremendous value for a 2025 pick 50-60.

But it isn’t just 1 pick, that’s 2 2nd round picks on 1 WR and you only get 3rd round value for the 2025 pick. If the right guy could be had, I guess OK.  Those 2 picks will get you to about pick 45.  If Legette or McConkey  or maybe Worthy are there, I’d consider it, but not for anyone else that comes to mind.  

5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That’s certainly on the table. The more of these that you see, the more you realize that it is impossible to wait until 60. If they pass with their first pick (which would be shocking to me), they have to come up. You can’t add the 16th WR as your #1 WR, regardless of how good this draft is at WR. They either have to trade for a vet, trade up in the first, take a WR at 28, or trade up from 60. They have those 4 options but have to walk away with one of the top 8-10 WRs (or 2 of them).

They could trade down from 28 and still get a good WR prospect as well.

[Kirby Jackson]

4 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:  

They could trade down from 28 and still get a good WR prospect as well.

Yep, that’s what I was considering trading up from 60. It could be down from 28. What I should have said was, “pick a player between 28-60.” They have to have at least 1 WR on the roster before pick 60 goes on the clock.

[FireChans]

7 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

But it isn’t just 1 pick, that’s 2 2nd round picks on 1 WR and you only get 3rd round value for the 2025 pick. If the right guy could be had, I guess OK.  Those 2 picks will get you to about pick 45.  If Legette or McConkey  or maybe Worthy are there, I’d consider it, but not for anyone else that comes to mind.  

The prospects available are what give the picks their value.

 

Getting a first round prospect WR with pick 28 and borderline first round prospect WR with pick 60 in 2024 and likely pick 59 in 2025 is good value.

 

Who cares if it’s technically “worth” a 3rd rounder because of a chart?

[OldTimer1960]

15 minutes ago, FireChans said:

The prospects available are what give the picks their value.

 

Getting a first round prospect WR with pick 28 and borderline first round prospect WR with pick 60 in 2024 and likely pick 59 in 2025 is good value.

 

Who cares if it’s technically “worth” a 3rd rounder because of a chart?

I acknowledge that if the right guy is available, then go up.  I would go up for one of Legette, McConkey or Worthy.  Is there anyone else you would trade that much for?

[Dr. Who]

4 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I acknowledge that if the right guy is available, then go up.  I would go up for one of Legette, McConkey or Worthy.  Is there anyone else you would trade that much for?

Some folks think Troy Franklin should be added to that list. I like Legette and McConkey. I wouldn't mind ending up with both of them somehow.

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I acknowledge that if the right guy is available, then go up.  I would go up for one of Legette, McConkey or Worthy.  Is there anyone else you would trade that much for?

Probably Legette or Worthy. 
 

I like Ladd but I see him as a Shakir plus 2/3.

[OldTimer1960]

13 hours ago, FireChans said:

Probably Legette or Worthy. 
 

I like Ladd but I see him as a Shakir plus 2/3.

I do worry about McConkey’s smaller size and history of being nicked up.  I just love watching his precision route running and after the catch he is a lot more elusive than I think he gets credit for.  I agree he probably will never be “wr1”, but I think he can be really good.

[GunnerBill]

21 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I typically agree with this, but with the Bills they rotate guys so much that this extra high end DL is immensely important. Do I think they should rotate as much as they do? No. But they do and it’s McDermott’s philosophy and a pass rusher here is the value imo. We should be getting immediate starters early in the draft. 
 

There are zero high end cheap, young, defensive tackles or DL on the roster. I think they could draft more than 1. 

 

I crunched the numbers on their rotation earlier in the offseason. While 7 years ago they werw ahead of the league that gap has all but disappeared. The top 8 or 9 teams in the league last year with the exception of KC (who had 3 of of their starters around 70%+) were right in the same spot as the Bills when you worked it all out.

[nosejob]

13 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

Some folks think Troy Franklin should be added to that list. I like Legette and McConkey. I wouldn't mind ending up with both of them somehow.

That would be my favorite pair. Let's say we take Ladd at 28.

 

Then trade next yrs. 1st to GB for 41 and 88. (They have two in each rd.)

 

Next yrs. 2nd to AZ.  for 66  ( They have 3 3rds.)

 

That gives us:

28                                                                                        Ladd

41  ( + a 4th to gets us to mid 30s?)                                Legette

60 ( + a 5 and 6 to get us to mid 50s?)                            Sweat

66                                                                                        Walker

88                                                                                        Fiske or Maason Smith     That still leaves us 1 4th/2 5ths/ 2 6ths and a 7?

Those 1st 5 picks can all be hits at spots of needs.

[Virgil]

43 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I crunched the numbers on their rotation earlier in the offseason. While 7 years ago they werw ahead of the league that gap has all but disappeared. The top 8 or 9 teams in the league last year with the exception of KC (who had 3 of of their starters around 70%+) were right in the same spot as the Bills when you worked it all out.

I thought I noticed the same thing, but was too lay to look.   I wonder if McD’s reduction in rotation is injury forced at times though

[GunnerBill]

28 minutes ago, Virgil said:

I thought I noticed the same thing, but was too lay to look.   I wonder if McD’s reduction in rotation is injury forced at times though

 

Oh I am not suggesting the Bills rotated less (save for Ed who played at 70%) just that others are now rotating much more as a matter of course. The days of it being a novel strategy or unusual to rotate 7-8 guys through up front are behind us IMO.

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, nosejob said:

That would be my favorite pair. Let's say we take Ladd at 28.

 

Then trade next yrs. 1st to GB for 41 and 88. (They have two in each rd.)

 

Next yrs. 2nd to AZ.  for 66  ( They have 3 3rds.)

 

That gives us:

28                                                                                        Ladd

41  ( + a 4th to gets us to mid 30s?)                                Legette

60 ( + a 5 and 6 to get us to mid 50s?)                            Sweat

66                                                                                        Walker

88                                                                                        Fiske or Maason Smith     That still leaves us 1 4th/2 5ths/ 2 6ths and a 7?

Those 1st 5 picks can all be hits at spots of needs.

I guess you have a 2nd still for 2025. I'm not sure Beane would be willing to invest that for this strategy. He'd have to invest that much if he plans on moving up for a top 3 WR, though, so this is an interesting alternate strategy. I think Walker at 66 is overkill, and I am someone who wants 2 WRs early now. Maybe they plan on signing Simmons post 6/1 with Tre's money. Otherwise, S needs to be a consideration. I like Tykee Smith, who you may be able to pick up in the fourth. Folks like Bullard and Bishop are 3rd rounders. You might have to double up the DT at 66 and take a S at 88. 

 

I think they need to add OL depth, CB, and RB2 at some point.

 

Overall, this strategy could work, but I have a feeling Beane is going to move up for a WR, rather than sit there and wait for 28.