PSL Pricing/Seat Selection Discussion

[Kirby Jackson]

6 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Just FYI for all - Resale value does not indicate what fans will pay for seasons or PSL’s.

 

Resale tickets prices are based off very different market economics. These are fans that often only go to 1 or 2 games per year - therefore they justify significantly higher prices because they don’t need to pay for the remaining 6 or 7 games.

Well sure, but it absolutely correlates to demand. The same goes for the Bills fans that travel to games. Many people spend the entire cost of a season on away games. The market has shown that people are willing to spend on the Bills. There’s a waiting list for season tickets, resale pricing through the roof and a fan base that travels as well as any fan base in sports. I’m not sure why we should think PSLs will change all of this? The demand is at an all-time high. The timing is PERFECT for the Bills. 

Just now, cdl 716 said:

My sense is the clubs are selling very well so far.  The East Club has two sections, C225 and C226, that are roughly between the 40 yard lines and both are completely sold out.  Good luck with your appointment…it’s next week, correct?

Yeah, it’s next Tuesday. I’m hopeful that we will be able to get something comparable to where we are now but who knows. 

[Boatdrinks]

2 hours ago, CodeMonkey said:

 

The point is, they are being forced into that because the NFL owners do not want to pay for their own place of business. If they like the end result doesn't matter.  Plus some, maybe most, would prefer the stadium experience if that's what their families have been doing for generations.

And would also imply they could/should pay for their own places of business instead of charging their fans up front?

This is not uncommon in the NFL. That’s just how it is. Bills fans have enjoyed a bygone era NFL economy for about a quarter century longer than anyone else. It wasn’t going to last forever, and now here we are. 

[Einstein]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Well sure, but it absolutely correlates to demand.

Secondary market demand.

In behavioral economics we have something known as reference dependence which suggests that buyers evaluate their choices relative to a specific reference point. What this means for primary and secondary market demand is that when purchasing resale tickets the reference point of the buyer shifts to factors such as impulsiveness and willingness to pay more for attending only one game. "But honey, its the ONE game I go to all year". This shift in reference points can lead to higher prices in the secondary market, which does not correlate with the demand or pricing in the primary market.

Eg: John Doe only goes to 1 game per year and therefore purchases resale has no affect on season ticket demand. But he does an affect on resale ticket demand.
 

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The same goes for the Bills fans that travel to games. Many people spend the entire cost of a season on away games.

You point out a big problem for the Bills and something they have always struggled with. The fan base traveling well is part of the reason why the Bills struggle to charge peak NFL rates.

Many northern Bills fans would rather spend $2,500 on flying to Miami, spending a week on the beach, and then watching the Bills kick the Dolphins butt, rather than spend that same allotment of coin on a season package that can not be enjoyed by the portion of the family that is not into sports.

What i'm really interested to see is how many people end up defaulting on their PSL.

[Kirby Jackson]

4 minutes ago, Einstein said:

Secondary market demand.

In behavioral economics we have something known as reference dependence which suggests that buyers evaluate their choices relative to a specific reference point. What this means for primary and secondary market demand is that when purchasing resale tickets the reference point of the buyer shifts to factors such as impulsiveness and willingness to pay more for attending only one game. "But honey, its the ONE game I go to all year". This shift in reference points can lead to higher prices in the secondary market, which does not correlate with the demand or pricing in the primary market.

Eg: John Doe only goes to 1 game per year and therefore purchases resale has no affect on season ticket demand. But he does an affect on resale ticket demand.
 

You point out a big problem for the Bills and something they have always struggled with. The fan base traveling well is part of the reason why the Bills struggle to charge peak NFL rates.

Many northern Bills fans would rather spend $2,500 on flying to Miami, spending a week on the beach, and then watching the Bills kick the Dolphins butt, rather than spend that same allotment of coin on a season package that can not be enjoyed by the portion of the family that is not into sports.

What i'm really interested to see is how many people end up defaulting on their PSL.

When there are no primary seats available (again demand) there is ONLY secondary demand. We can judge demand by primary (waiting list), secondary (high priced tickets on the secondary market), and the Bills on the road (travel as well as any fan base). I’m not sure what you’re trying to dispute? The demand for the Bills is through the roof and ALL metrics support that. When you have a waiting list, you couldn’t have more primary demand. People are forced to the secondary market to consume the product. They value it enough to pay inflated prices. You’re grasping at straws to jam through the narrative that you’re trying to create. Right now, people aren’t picking Miami or season tickets. They are either doing both or picking Miami BECAUSE they can’t get season tickets. The demand is enormous.
 

I think that the default angle is certainly possible. The Bills won’t care so much on the lower priced ones. If someone’s PSL is $2500 and they default after $1500 it doesn’t move the needle. There won’t be enough of those situations to move the needle. If people start defaulting on the $50k ones the Bills will be after them.

 

FWIW, the Bills used to sue people for defaulting on their club seat contracts. That stopped about 15-20 years ago because the juice wasn’t worth the squeeze.

[WotAGuy]

8 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

When there are no primary seats available (again demand) there is ONLY secondary demand. We can judge demand by primary (waiting list), secondary (high priced tickets on the secondary market), and the Bills on the road (travel as well as any fan base). I’m not sure what you’re trying to dispute? The demand for the Bills is through the roof and ALL metrics support that. When you have a waiting list, you couldn’t have more primary demand. People are forced to the secondary market to consume the product. They value it enough to pay inflated prices. You’re grasping at straws to jam through the narrative that you’re trying to create. Right now, people aren’t picking Miami or season tickets. They are either doing both or picking Miami BECAUSE they can’t get season tickets. The demand is enormous.
 

 

Long-winded answer with math equations incoming in 3, 2, 1…..

[Jrb1979]

19 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

When there are no primary seats available (again demand) there is ONLY secondary demand. We can judge demand by primary (waiting list), secondary (high priced tickets on the secondary market), and the Bills on the road (travel as well as any fan base). I’m not sure what you’re trying to dispute? The demand for the Bills is through the roof and ALL metrics support that. When you have a waiting list, you couldn’t have more primary demand. People are forced to the secondary market to consume the product. They value it enough to pay inflated prices. You’re grasping at straws to jam through the narrative that you’re trying to create. Right now, people aren’t picking Miami or season tickets. They are either doing both or picking Miami BECAUSE they can’t get season tickets. The demand is enormous.
 

I think that the default angle is certainly possible. The Bills won’t care so much on the lower priced ones. If someone’s PSL is $2500 and they default after $1500 it doesn’t move the needle. There won’t be enough of those situations to move the needle. If people start defaulting on the $50k ones the Bills will be after them.

 

FWIW, the Bills used to sue people for defaulting on their club seat contracts. That stopped about 15-20 years ago because the juice wasn’t worth the squeeze.

Right now it's enormous. With so far only 75% of club seat ticket holders opting to renew it's not a good thing. I really do think they are going have issues selling all the PSLs. 

[Kirby Jackson]

6 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

Right now it's enormous. With so far only 75% of club seat ticket holders opting to renew it's not a good thing. I really do think they are going have issues selling all the PSLs. 

We have no idea if that’s a good thing or bad thing. We have no idea what the Bills thought they’d sell in this first wave. They haven’t gotten through the club seat holders yet. I’m next Tuesday. We also have no idea if that’s an actual number. We also don’t know 75% of what?

 

There are a lot of people here connecting dots as to what they think will happen. This is all despite the fact that the actual data that we have to go off supports MASSIVE demand for the Bills. It’ll play out but if we are reading tea leaves, demand is higher than it’s ever been.

[Einstein]

32 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

When there are no primary seats available (again demand) there is ONLY secondary demand.

 

You're conflating the current stadium with the new stadium. There is no debate that the new stadium has high demand. We are talking about the new stadium. Where 1 in 4 customers are giving their tickets up. As stated earlier, I expect a similar outcome with lower priced tickets, due to price elasticity. I believe the Bills expect it as well. They will model prices in the lower seats to percentage wise match club seats to obtain at least 75% buy in.

4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

We have no idea if that’s a good thing or bad thing.

We do know that losing 1 in 4 customers is a very, very bad thing.
 

4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

We have no idea what the Bills thought they’d sell in this first wave. 

If John Doe thought he would be poked in the eye, and then did get poked in the eye, it does not make the eye poke a good thing. It only means he accurately forecasted his eye poke.

[Kirby Jackson]

8 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

You're conflating the current stadium with the new stadium. There is no debate that the new stadium has high demand. We are talking about the new stadium. Where 1 in 4 customers are giving their tickets up. As stated earlier, I expect a similar outcome with lower priced tickets, due to price elasticity. I believe the Bills expect it as well. They will model prices in the lower seats to percentage wise match club seats to obtain at least 75% buy in.

We do know that losing 1 in 4 customers is a very, very bad thing.
 

If John Doe thought he would be poked in the eye, and then did get poked in the eye, it does not make the eye poke a good thing. It only means he accurately forecasted his eye poke.

No, I’m not conflating it. The Bills CURRENTLY have a waiting list. That is the data that we have to go off of. They haven’t started selling to most of the people yet. 
 

75% of how many? If you don’t know that answer, it’s meaningless. What % of club seat holders have been called? How many club seats in the new stadium compared to current stadium? If we do not know those answers, which we don’t, we don’t have new stadium data that is meaningful. 

Edited April 2 by Kirby Jackson

[WotAGuy]

[WotAGuy]

Just now, Einstein said:

 

Maths upset you?

Very much so.  When I joined in 2004, SDS told me very specifically “THERE WILL BE NO MATH”. 
 

 

[papazoid]

Only 1.6% of season-ticket account holders (all of whom have premium club-seat locations at the current stadium) have been invited to the Stadium Experience in Amherst  

 

Among the people who have been invited, 96% have visited the Stadium Experience or scheduled a visit, and 75% of the account holders who have visited have signed PSL agreements for club seats.

 

 

https://buffalonews.com/sports/professional/nfl/bills/buffalo-bills-new-stadium-personal-seat-license-ryan-ohalloran-column/article_0fdb8c78-edc3-11ee-8861-b3348dac0c5b.html

 

 (of the 25% who didn't agree to new club level  seats immediately on first offer....i bet more than half of them get seats in a less expensive area on their second chance meeting. so that initial 75% will likely go to 85-90%)

Edited April 2 by papazoid

[PBF81]

3 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

The Bills decided a couple years ago to get into bed with official resellers. They then shut down the ticket office that sells group rates. 

 

Wow, I did not know that. 

 

 

[Kirby Jackson]

6 minutes ago, Einstein said:

That's the benefit of percentages. We don't need to know of how many, we simply know that 1 out of every 4 people who currently pay money have decided to no longer pay money. That's significant. 

I also have a hunch about the waiting list. I'll confirm (or deny) it tomorrow morning.

Maths upset you?

Lol, it’s not significant if it’s 1,000 seats. I’m a club seat holder with 20-30 years of seniority (not sure the exact number but think it’s like 28 years). I am not going until next Tuesday. 
 

We have no idea what percentage they expected of what has been shown. They  may not want it higher than that. They can then roll those locations into sponsorship packages and get significantly more than the PSL prices. That’s not uncommon at all. Again, you’re making assumptions without any info but a rumored 75% of some number have been accepted.

4 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Wow, I did not know that. 

 

 

That’s been going on for WAY longer than that. That’s probably a 30 year relationship. ALL professional sports teams have relationships with resellers in 2024. They probably account for 5-10% of all season tickets.

[Kirby Jackson]

14 minutes ago, papazoid said:

Only 1.6% of season-ticket account holders (all of whom have premium club-seat locations at the current stadium) have been invited to the Stadium Experience in Amherst

 

Among the people who have been invited, 96% have visited the Stadium Experience or scheduled a visit, and 75% of the account holders who have visited have signed PSL agreements for club seats.

 

 

https://buffalonews.com/sports/professional/nfl/bills/buffalo-bills-new-stadium-personal-seat-license-ryan-ohalloran-column/article_0fdb8c78-edc3-11ee-8861-b3348dac0c5b.html

 

 (of the 25% who didn't agree to new club level  seats immediately on first offer....i bet more than half of them get seats in a less expensive area on their second chance meeting. so that initial 75% will likely go to 85-90%)

So less than 1,000 seats at this point. People are creating narratives over 250 seats that haven’t been accounted for (yet). Lol, the chicken little aren’t going to like that. The Bills can move those in 3 phone calls.

7 minutes ago, Einstein said:

That is absurd.

With all due respect, it’s not rare. I’ve done it. Price out the people and roll it into sponsorship packages. That’s VERY common. They shook free 250 seats in the most expensive areas. The Senecas sponsorship deal will be significantly higher when those get offered to them.

 

I’ll elaborate in hopes of this making sense to people. Say the Bills have 100 $50K PSLs that they need to sell. They can sell those and collect $5M. They can leverage those seats to raise the pricing on advertising and other intangible assets. Let’s say that the Senecas spend $2M in advertising. The Bills can say, we will throw in 100 prime PSLs and the whole package will be $10M. The Bills now made an extra $3M by leveraging their demand.

Edited April 2 by Kirby Jackson

[mrags]

11 minutes ago, papazoid said:

Only 1.6% of season-ticket account holders (all of whom have premium club-seat locations at the current stadium) have been invited to the Stadium Experience in Amherst  

 

Among the people who have been invited, 96% have visited the Stadium Experience or scheduled a visit, and 75% of the account holders who have visited have signed PSL agreements for club seats.

 

 

https://buffalonews.com/sports/professional/nfl/bills/buffalo-bills-new-stadium-personal-seat-license-ryan-ohalloran-column/article_0fdb8c78-edc3-11ee-8861-b3348dac0c5b.html

 

 (of the 25% who didn't agree to new club level  seats immediately on first offer....i bet more than half of them get seats in a less expensive area on their second chance meeting. so that initial 75% will likely go to 85-90%)

[papazoid]

15 minutes ago, papazoid said:

Only 1.6% of season-ticket account holders (all of whom have premium club-seat locations at the current stadium) have been invited to the Stadium Experience in Amherst  

 

Among the people who have been invited, 96% have visited the Stadium Experience or scheduled a visit, and 75% of the account holders who have visited have signed PSL agreements for club seats.

 

 

https://buffalonews.com/sports/professional/nfl/bills/buffalo-bills-new-stadium-personal-seat-license-ryan-ohalloran-column/article_0fdb8c78-edc3-11ee-8861-b3348dac0c5b.html

 

 (of the 25% who didn't agree to new club level  seats immediately on first offer....i bet more than half of them get seats in a less expensive area on their second chance meeting. so that initial 75% will likely go to 85-90%)

 

 

"season-ticket ACCOUNT  HOLDERS".......safe to assume most account holders have at least two tix, some more. i myself have 6 tix

[Jrb1979]

37 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

We have no idea if that’s a good thing or bad thing. We have no idea what the Bills thought they’d sell in this first wave. They haven’t gotten through the club seat holders yet. I’m next Tuesday. We also have no idea if that’s an actual number. We also don’t know 75% of what?

 

There are a lot of people here connecting dots as to what they think will happen. This is all despite the fact that the actual data that we have to go off supports MASSIVE demand for the Bills. It’ll play out but if we are reading tea leaves, demand is higher than it’s ever been.

MASSIVE DEMAND at current prices and without PSLs.  The Bills aren't moving but I think you will see more buy tickets for 1-2 games on the secondary market opposed to buying seasons and PSLs. 

[Jrb1979]

2 minutes ago, Einstein said:

Yeah. It was a shrewd business move but really screwed over fans. We have seen a lot of that under PSE.

Wait til the new law takes affect. I'm sure once the new stadium opens they will crack down on those who re sell the majority of their tickets. 

[Kirby Jackson]

11 minutes ago, Einstein said:

I see that math isn't your strong suit.

For those unaware, percentages matter. 

For example: When Nielsen announces that 120 million people watched the Super Bowl, they don't actually have boxes in 120 million homes. They use an algorithm that is predicated on a percentage that is a tiny number of the whole. They extrapolate this number to arrive at the whole. 

1.6% of 62,000 is 1,000 seats (992 to be exact). Again, with all due respect, you’re trying to educate the wrong guy on how this works. 75% of 992 is 744. That’s what they are saying here. It may be time to bow out of this conversation. A change in screen name is probably in order as well.

8 minutes ago, Einstein said:

Yeah. It was a shrewd business move but really screwed over fans. We have seen a lot of that under PSE.

Lol, this has been going on WAY longer than that. This isn’t new 😂😂

[mrags]

3 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

Wait til the new law takes affect. I'm sure once the new stadium opens they will crack down on those who re sell the majority of their tickets. 

Can’t crack down if I “gift” them to someone not on Ticketmaster, after they “gifted” me $1k 

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

1.6% of 62,000 is 1,000 seats (992 to be exact). Again, with all due respect, you’re trying to educate the wrong guy on how this works. 75% of 992 is 744. That’s what they are saying here. It may be time to bow out of this conversation. A change in screen name is probably in order as well.

Lol, this has been going on WAY longer than that. This isn’t new 😂😂

[Kirby Jackson]

9 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

MASSIVE DEMAND at current prices and without PSLs.  The Bills aren't moving but I think you will see more buy tickets for 1-2 games on the secondary market opposed to buying seasons and PSLs. 

That’s the info that we have. We have massive demand currently. You are anticipating that changing based on gut feeling. The data that we have says massive demand for the Bills. 

[Einstein]

4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

1.6% of 62,000 is 1,000 seats (992 to be exact).

That's not the right maths...

It's 1.6% of account holders. NOT seats.

[Kirby Jackson]

4 minutes ago, Einstein said:

That's not the right maths...

It's 1.6% of account holders. NOT seats.

The average account holder is like 2.3 seats (at least it was). The point remains. 

[WotAGuy]

28 minutes ago, papazoid said:

Only 1.6% of season-ticket account holders (all of whom have premium club-seat locations at the current stadium) have been invited to the Stadium Experience in Amherst  

 

Among the people who have been invited, 96% have visited the Stadium Experience or scheduled a visit, and 75% of the account holders who have visited have signed PSL agreements for club seats.

 

 

https://buffalonews.com/sports/professional/nfl/bills/buffalo-bills-new-stadium-personal-seat-license-ryan-ohalloran-column/article_0fdb8c78-edc3-11ee-8861-b3348dac0c5b.html

 

 (of the 25% who didn't agree to new club level  seats immediately on first offer....i bet more than half of them get seats in a less expensive area on their second chance meeting. so that initial 75% will likely go to 85-90%)

The 25% represents those that didn’t accept the first offer.  I wonder if that does or does not include people like @Mr Info, who declined to purchase the day of his presentation but ended up buying some time after?

 

Also, with the survey, I would think the Bills had an idea what the decline rate would be, since the sharp increase in cost would scare off a fair number of non-corporate and small corporate STHs for the new clubs. 
 

Like Kirby alluded to, it could be the Bills have new corporate clients lined up to take the declined seats.  I could see some companies thinking the new stadium and upgraded amenities make it more attractive to bring in new clients, as opposed to your undertakers, etc. 
 

So, to take the 25% and run with it like it’s a sign of failure (looking at you @Einstein) may be missing the mark.  

[Einstein]

48 minutes ago, papazoid said:

 

 

"season-ticket ACCOUNT  HOLDERS".......safe to assume most account holders have at least two tix, some more. i myself have 6 tix

Right. 

So let's figure out how many the Bills need to attempt to sell to before we have a predictive value. Meaning, how many people before we know the % of sales is a good predictor of future outcomes.

- Let's say we want a confidence level of 90% and a Z-score of 1.65 (technically 1.645).

 

 

- Let's assume 60,000 season tickets at 2.5 tickets per account holder.

 

- A 5% margin of error. 

 

- We know  75% of those shown the new ticket pricing have agreed to buy, so we have p = 0.75  and q= 1 − p (so 0.25)

 

So we have:


The answer is 203.

With a 90% confidence level and a 5% margin of error, the Bills need to offer PSL's to at least 203 account holders. 

We know they have presented to 1.6% of account holders. If each account holder averages 2.5 tickets, that means they have presented to 403 account holders. Which is significantly more than they need to see predictive value. 

in other words, the 75% sale figure is predictive.

 

.

Edited April 2 by Einstein

[WotAGuy]

3 minutes ago, Einstein said:

Right. 

So let's figure out how many the Bills need to attempt to sell to before we have a predictive value. Meaning, how many people before we know the % of sales is a good predictor of future outcomes.

- Let's say we want a confidence level of 90% and a Z-score of 1.65 (technically 1.645).

 

 

- Let's assume 60,000 season ticket holders

 

- A 5% margin of error. 

 

- We know  75% of those shown the new ticket pricing have agreed to buy, so we have p = 0.75  and q= 1 − p (so 0.25)

 

So we have:


The answer is 203.

With a 90% confidence level and a 5% margin of error, the Bills need to offer PSL's to at least 203 account holders. 

We know they have presented to 1.6% of account holders. If each account holder averages 2.5 tickets, that means they have presented to 403 account holders. Which is significantly more than they need to see predictive value. 

in other words, the 75% sale figure is predictive.

 
 

There are not 60,000 season ticket holders if they each hold 2.5 seats. Ipsofatso your analysis is flawed from the start.  
 

Let’s look at it with a different Z value:

Einstein = not smart. 

[Einstein]

26 minutes ago, WotAGuy said:

 

So, to take the 25% and run with it like it’s a sign of failure 

 

"Failure" isnt the right way of looking at it. It's just the reality of the numbers. Neither good nor bad.

1 minute ago, WotAGuy said:

 
 

There are not 60,000 season ticket holders if they each hold 2.5 seats. Ipsofatso your analysis is flawed from the start. 

The 60k isnt used in the equation at all so doesnt mattter. I just cut the end of my sentence off. It was meant to say 60,000 tickets at 2.5 ticket per account holder

[WotAGuy]

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

 

"Failure" isnt the right way of looking at it. It's just the reality of the numbers. Neither good nor bad.

The 60k isnt used in the equation at all so doesnt mattter. I just cut the end of my sentence off. It was meant to say 60,000 tickets at 2.5 ticket per account holder

 

It’s always “I meant to say”.  
 

The refrain of the wrong. 

[Kirby Jackson]

The numbers that we have on the new stadium, at this point, don’t tell us anything. The numbers that we have at the current stadium, on the road, and on the secondary market say that the demand is off the charts. 
 

People can keep digging in to not be wrong but that’s reality. The Bills have ZERO concerns at this point. They almost certainly have a target that they want to hold back. We don’t know that number. 

[Einstein]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The numbers that we have on the new stadium, at this point, don’t tell us anything.

They pass 95% confidence level. How does that not tell us anything? 

[WotAGuy]

9 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

"Failure" isnt the right way of looking at it. It's just the reality of the numbers. Neither good nor bad.

 

 

 

Nine hours ago you wrote:

Keep in mind, according to the Bills, 1 in 4 aren't renewing. That's pretty bad for most businesses to lose a quarter of your customers.

Are you feeling ok Einstein?  After this edible, I was gonna have sex with my wife, but maybe I should stick around and help you out?

2 minutes ago, Einstein said:

They pass 95% confidence level. How does that not tell us anything? 

Sample size?   Bah!

Edited April 2 by WotAGuy

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, Einstein said:

They pass 95% confidence level. How does that not tell us anything? 

Because we have no idea what the Bills want out of that part (for starters). They may have wanted less than that. They also, almost certainly know, how many of those seats that they could sell new if they had the inventory. The % of the stadium is way too small to tell anything. 
 

Again, I’m not trying to be that guy but I’ve done this at that level. I have a master’s degree in sports management. I’m not trying to be condescending. I’m trying to tell you the reality of the situation and why sports business is different than other business. I work in insurance now. People aren’t emotionally  attached to their insurance policies. Sports numbers do not trend like other businesses for that reason. They also have different objectives than to sell every seat as soon as you can. There’s strategy and leverage at play that is being disregarded (or ignorance).

[Einstein]

2 hours ago, WotAGuy said:

Sample size?   Bah!

I think you misunderstood.

What the formula does is tell you what sample size you need for the sample to be predictive. 

That's the entire point. 

We need at least 203 account holders to be offered PSL's at a 90% confidence level, to have the sample be predictive. The Bills have shown over 400.

 

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Because we have no idea what the Bills want out of that part (for starters). They may have wanted less than that.

This is just absurd.

"Hear me out boss. Let's spend millions of dollars to hire salespeople who sell people on $40k PSL's, all day every day, and get this... we are going to WANT lots of people to say NO and waste our time/money".

They want 100% sales. Unless you have information that they are breaking disparate impact by selling the same seats for more money to corporate buyers (which they aren't).

 

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

 

They also, almost certainly know, how many of those seats that they could sell new if they had the inventor

 

They likely dont. Which is why they are selling clubs first. They are using it as a benchmark. 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 3 by Einstein

[WotAGuy]

Just now, Einstein said:

You've mentioned this about half a dozen times. I have about 50 of you below me on the org chart.

[WotAGuy]

25 minutes ago, Einstein said:

I think you misunderstood.

What the formula does is tell you what sample size you need for the sample to be predictive. 

That's the entire point. 

We need at least 203 account holders to be offered PSL's at a 90% confidence level, to have the sample be predictive. The Bills have shown over 400.

 

This is just absurd.

"Hear me out boss. Let's spend millions of dollars to hire salespeople who sell people on $40k PSL's, all day every day, and get this... we are going to WANT lots of people to say NO and waste our time/money".

They want 100% sales. Unless you have information that they are breaking disparate impact by selling the same seats for more money to corporate buyers (which they aren't).

 

 

They likely dont. Which is why they are selling clubs first. They are using it as a benchmark. 

 

You've mentioned this about half a dozen times. I fear that it doesn't give you the credibility that you think it does. Especially when you state that the sample size isn't large enough yet surpassed 95% confidence. How did you do this for a living but dont understand predictive portioning? Quite frankly I have about 50 of you below me on the org chart.

Masters, Ph'd's, etc. No executives.

 

 

 

It’s PhD brainiac, and there no apostrophe. Apparently there are no English majors under you on the Chick-fil-A org chart. 

[mrags]

48 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Because we have no idea what the Bills want out of that part (for starters). They may have wanted less than that. They also, almost certainly know, how many of those seats that they could sell new if they had the inventory. The % of the stadium is way too small to tell anything. 
 

Again, I’m not trying to be that guy but I’ve done this at that level. I have a master’s degree in sports management. I’m not trying to be condescending. I’m trying to tell you the reality of the situation and why sports business is different than other business. I work in insurance now. People aren’t emotionally  attached to their insurance policies. Sports numbers do not trend like other businesses for that reason. They also have different objectives than to sell every seat as soon as you can. There’s strategy and leverage at play that is being disregarded (or ignorance).

You can just stop bud. People are blindly arguing without actually knowing any factual evidence of any numbers anyway. Time will tell. At the end of the day I 100% agree with you. The bills are not going to be worried about selling a single ticket imo. They will 100% sell out to as many STH as they have tickets for them (they have to save some for visiting teams and non STHs I believe per the NFL). 

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

I think you misunderstood.

What the formula does is tell you what sample size you need for the sample to be predictive. 

That's the entire point. 

We need at least 203 account holders to be offered PSL's at a 90% confidence level, to have the sample be predictive. The Bills have shown over 400.

 

This is just absurd.

"Hear me out boss. Let's spend millions of dollars to hire salespeople who sell people on $40k PSL's, all day every day, and get this... we are going to WANT lots of people to say NO and waste our time/money".

They want 100% sales. Unless you have information that they are breaking disparate impact by selling the same seats for more money to corporate buyers (which they aren't).

 

 

They likely dont. Which is why they are selling clubs first. They are using it as a benchmark. 

 

You've mentioned this about half a dozen times. I fear that it doesn't give you the credibility that you think it does. Especially when you state that the sample size isn't large enough yet surpassed 95% confidence. How did you do this for a living but dont understand predictive portioning? Quite frankly I have about 50 of you below me on the org chart.

Masters, Ph'd's, etc. No executives.

 

 

 

Again, I don’t have anything to prove here. I feel an obligation to educate and stop misinformation. If I didn’t receive PMs and texts asking me to comment on the subject, I would’ve bowed out a long time ago and just let the hand-wringing continue. There’s a long track record on here of things that I said would happen, happening.
 

Sometimes we get people that think that they know and understand WAY more than they actually do. They come in these threads spreading 1/2 truths without any real idea of the scope of the objectives. They take minimal information and form conclusions that aren’t accurate or without base. They then double down and triple down instead of quietly walking away. It’s okay to not understand. It’s not okay to parlay that lack of understanding into fearmongering. It’ll all play out in due time. At that point, you can come back here and tell everyone that “you were wrong” and that “you’ll do better next time.”
 

 

Edited April 3 by Kirby Jackson

[Einstein]

7 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

They come in these threads spreading 1/2 truths without any real idea of the scope of the objectives. They take minimal information and form conclusions that aren’t accurate or without base. They then double down and triple down instead of quietly walking away. It’s okay to not understand. 

 

Yes, I agree, there is definitely someone in this thread doing this…

[WotAGuy]

Just now, Einstein said:

 

Yes, I agree, there is definitely someone in this thread doing this…