Anyone else feeling pretty good with the Bills?

[PBF81]

44 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

my point is that I would expect increased production out of both Shakir and Kincaid over any free agent  signings. Our own in house draft picks is where we should at first expect Davis stats to go to. Some will go to Samuel. 
 

 

Yeah, that's the hope.  We'll see.  

 

Diggs had 8 TDs, Davis had 7 TDs, and no other WR or TE on the team had more than 2.  Cook had 4.  If it's true that Diggs' is "slowing down" or however people want to put it, then we may not even be able to count on TD production from him either.  He certainly hasn't shown up in that regard for most of our playoff games that he's been in already.  Our TEs haven't changed, so that remains stable.  

 

It'd be nice to have a proven TD producer in our WR corps.  Besides Diggs we do not have that.   As of now, the only WRs on the team that have caught much of anything for us from Allen are Diggs and Shakir.  Shorter will hopefully be good.  He's a wild-card of sorts.  

 

It's our "Complimentary Football" aspect that concerns me in that regard.  That and why Diggs was operating from the slot under Brady far more than he did to date on our team otherwise, which IMO is a big reason for his "decline."  But what do I know.  LOL  

 

 

Edited March 24 by PBF81

[FireChans]

On 3/15/2023 at 9:54 AM, Dablitzkrieg said:

This dude got $5 mill guaranteed?

 

On 3/15/2023 at 9:54 AM, Warriorspikes51 said:

Why? 

 

On 3/15/2023 at 9:56 AM, Brandon said:

 

 I guess I'll have to trust the scouting department on this one,  but still...yikes. 

 

On 3/15/2023 at 9:57 AM, DJB said:

Woah seems overpaid yikes

 

On 3/15/2023 at 10:00 AM, TOboy said:

Like the player, don’t love the price. Would love to be proven wrong this season. 

 

On 3/15/2023 at 10:06 AM, McBean said:

Wtf

 

On 3/15/2023 at 10:10 AM, Hebert19 said:

Wtf are we doing.  We literally have 4 of these guys on roster now and we never use them.  

 

On 3/15/2023 at 10:11 AM, 78thealltimegreat said:

Well Josh there’s your big free agent acquisition. Now don’t mind Beane while he drafts a couple more tweener defensive ends. 

 

On 3/15/2023 at 10:17 AM, Chuck Wagon said:

Stupid move. 

 

On 3/15/2023 at 10:20 AM, Chicken Boo said:

Yawn.  He'll return kicks and punts and be lucky to see 30 receptions on the year.  

 

Not an indictment of his talent, but of this staff.  

 

On 3/15/2023 at 10:43 AM, FlaFitz1 said:

This has be an early April Fools joke.  

 

Averaged 0.5 catches and 3.25 yards per game last year

 

Over 4 seasons played in 40 out of 66 possible games, started only 4, caught all of 64 balls for 793 yards, 8.9 avg and a whole 4 TDs?  That averages out to 10 games per season, 1 start, 1.6 catches and 19.8 yards per games and a whole TD a year?   Plus 15 carries for 123 yards and 0 TDs and 9 fumbles?

 

Sign a 5'6" unproductive player for 2 years $13.5 million max with $5 million guaranteed?   An average of $6.75 per year?   What a waste of resources!!!

 

 

McKenzie, who is 2" taller, over the same time frame played in 61 out of 66 possible games, started 25 of them, caught 119 balls for 1137 yards, 9.6 avg, 11 TDs.  Running 36 times for 160 yards 2 TDs and 2 Fumbles.  Not to mention he's in the 2nd year of a 2 year $4.4 million deal - that had only $1.25 million guaranteed.  This year has a base of $1.75 million plus workout and roster bonuses worth $467,647

 

If this signing is real...   WOW!!  UGH!!!

 

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

LOL, funny, no one said that Hasty was trash last season.  I do recall making a similar argument regarding Hasty, and was slammed similarly about this time last year.  

 

Look, Samuel may end up with 1,200 yards and a dozen TDs, who knows.  But there's nothing historically to suggest that merely switching QBs for a WR of his caliber is going to propel him statistically the way that people seem to believe will happen.  

 

Let's be real about Samuel.  He's a WR that in seven seasons has amassed 3,383 yards on 10.7 yards-per-catch and 22 TDs.  

 

Sure, he has greater potential, but likely not as the #2 that everyone wants.  

 

 

I find it very funny when folks say things like this, when there's a mountain of evidence that suggest otherwise.

 

Samuel IMO is an upgrade over trash like Harty and Trent. Harty was an overpaid gadget KR guy, and Trent was trash making 800k a year as a vet minumum. In the last 4 seasons, including the year he barely played, he outproduced both of their entire careers COMBINED.

 

He can and likely will far outproduce their meager contributions. Asking him to replace both of them and Gabe IMO is a mistake. They need a rookie WR on the boundary. Diggs + rookie + Shakir + Samuel has a chance to be a much better unit than Diggs + Gabe _ Harty + Sherfield.

[Freddie's Dead]

Not me.

[Doc Brown]

6 hours ago, BananaB said:

Has any WR on the Bills had as many targets as Gabe the past 4 years besides Steph? 
How many drooped passes has he had compared to any other player over 4 years? How many INTs when he was targeted over the past 4 years? How many miscommunications with Allen? 
 

Dude is just a very inconsistent player. He’s made a lot of big plays for the Bills, but there is also a lot of negative plays. We need an upgrade at #2 and it would have been great to keep Gabe as the #3, but not at that price. 

Josh isn't blameless either and fans I think are a little too harsh on Gabe not wanting to blame Josh.

 

However, I think a lot of those INT's/miscues was Josh putting "too much" trust in Gabe given his size.  You just didn't see him take those chances with someone like Jon Brown or Emmanuel Sanders.  I prefer that type of outside WR opposite Diggs.  Remove the temptation of having a WR with Gabe's profile.

47 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

It'd be nice to have a proven TD producer in our WR corps.  Besides Diggs we do not have that.   As of now, the only WRs on the team that have caught much of anything for us from Allen are Diggs and Shakir.  Shorter will hopefully be good.  He's a wild-card of sorts.  

He's not a wild-card.  He's a WR4 special teams gunner and that's his ceiling imo.  Anyone expecting more will be disappointed.

Edited March 24 by Doc Brown

[PBF81]

44 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

I find it very funny when folks say things like this, when there's a mountain of evidence that suggest otherwise.

 

Samuel IMO is an upgrade over trash like Harty and Trent. Harty was an overpaid gadget KR guy, and Trent was trash making 800k a year as a vet minumum. In the last 4 seasons, including the year he barely played, he outproduced both of their entire careers COMBINED.

 

He can and likely will far outproduce their meager contributions. Asking him to replace both of them and Gabe IMO is a mistake. They need a rookie WR on the boundary. Diggs + rookie + Shakir + Samuel has a chance to be a much better unit than Diggs + Gabe _ Harty + Sherfield.

 

A lot of IFs and suppositions in there.

 

All kinds of things can happen.

 

Last year at this time the same exact things were being said about Harty & Sherfield.  

 

We'll have to wait and see how it shakes out.  

 

 

24 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

 

He's not a wild-card.  He's a WR4 special teams gunner and that's his ceiling imo.  Anyone expecting more will be disappointed.

 

Oh, thanks for clearing that up.  

 

😎

 

 

[FireChans]

10 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

A lot of IFs and suppositions in there.

 

All kinds of things can happen.

 

Last year at this time the same exact things were being said about Harty & Sherfield.  

 

We'll have to wait and see how it shakes out.  

 

 

 

Oh, thanks for clearing that up.  

 

😎

 

 

I didn't say if ONCE.  Holy smokes dude.

[Doc Brown]

6 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

Oh, thanks for clearing that up.  

 

😎

My pleasure and I'm even an optimist by nature.  Shorter is just the classic late round under performing yet highly recruited toolsy player that is bound to disappoint fans who think he could be a steal in the 5th round.

[SoTier]

4 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Davis' drops were bad for one season.  Discounting that singular season, that everyone made a mountain of a narrative over, do you know what Samuel's drop % is compared to Davis'? 

 

Davis' drops other than in '22 are quite average in terms of drop %.

 

You may want to look that up before making comments like that.  

 

Otherwise, once again, the comment misses the mark and still does not address the issue.  You'll see, again, this season quite likely, ... unless Samuel becomes a scoring machine.  

 

Hope he does, but I wouldn't put money on it.  

 

 

 

I like Gabe Davis as a $4-6 million a year WR but not for $39 million for 3 years.  He's simply not consistent enough.

 

3 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well, if Diggs is really finished like everyone here assumes, we'd better have an answer better than Samuel or yes, that's exactly where we're headed.  Allen was down about 20% as it was this season from prior years.  

 

Hopefully we draft a WR in round 1.  Also, I'm not on the train claiming that Diggs is finished.  IMO it's how he's used.  In fact, someone posted a piece recently, forget where, it may have been linked on the front page, that Diggs was used in slot nearly 50% of the time.  If that's true, and there's no reason to consider the guy's research false, then that would certainly explain the dropoff in production from Diggs.  

 

Complimentary Football as McD likes to call it.  

 

We can expect Kincaid to pick up some of the slack though, but he's not a WR.  

 

 

 

Like you, I don't assume that Diggs is finished.   He seemed to have been double teamed constantly toward the end of the season, which suggests that the other Bills receiving options weren't effective enough to force defenders to make hard choices on coverage.    IMO using Diggs in the slot seems a waste of his talent, but maybe the Bills wanted to see if Davis could step up to become a reliable downfield WR on the outside.  Davis didn't/couldn't, so the Bills let him walk.

[78thealltimegreat]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I find it very funny when folks say things like this, when there's a mountain of evidence that suggest otherwise.

 

Samuel IMO is an upgrade over trash like Harty and Trent. Harty was an overpaid gadget KR guy, and Trent was trash making 800k a year as a vet minumum. In the last 4 seasons, including the year he barely played, he outproduced both of their entire careers COMBINED.

 

He can and likely will far outproduce their meager contributions. Asking him to replace both of them and Gabe IMO is a mistake. They need a rookie WR on the boundary. Diggs + rookie + Shakir + Samuel has a chance to be a much better unit than Diggs + Gabe _ Harty + Sherfield.

I stand by it Beane could do even more 

[PauleeeWalnuts]

Feeling indifferent. They haven’t done anything that would indicate they will take the next step and get over the hump next season. Another Divisional Round loss is probable, maybe even a Wild Card knockout. Can’t beat Burrow or Mahomes when it counts and they didn’t get any better this offseason. 

Edited March 25 by PauleeeWalnuts

[Doc Brown]

8 hours ago, PauleeeWalnuts said:

Feeling indifferent. They haven’t done anything that would indicate they will take the next step and get over the hump next season. Another Divisional Round loss is probable, maybe even a Wild Card knockout. Can’t beat Burrow or Mahomes when it counts and they didn’t get any better this offseason. 

What specifically did the Colts do differently to finally get past the Pats in the 2000's?  What did the 49ers do differently to finally get past the Cowboy's in the 90's?  They kept tweaking personnel but the GM/Head Coach/QB remained the same. They just kept working on it each off-season to try and put themselves in that position again and the ball finally bounced their way.  We may look back 10 years from now and realize how stupid it would've been if we didn't stay the course.

[Gregg]

I want to see how the draft goes. Window #1 to win a Super Bowl with Allen has closed. Window #2 is now opening. They need to get younger and add more skill especially around Josh on offense. I am looking forward to the draft with 11 picks. Hopefully Beane can hit a HR with his picks.

[PBF81]

15 hours ago, FireChans said:

I didn't say if ONCE.  Holy smokes dude.

 

No, two IMOs, one has a chance to, a likely will, and an assumption that we'll draft a viable WR capable of doing what you suggest.  

 

There's quite a bit of room for things not falling the way that you say.  

 

Again, much of the talk about Harty last season was the same as that for Samuel now.  Doesn't matter the kick out the door talk now.  

 

 

15 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

My pleasure and I'm even an optimist by nature.  Shorter is just the classic late round under performing yet highly recruited toolsy player that is bound to disappoint fans who think he could be a steal in the 5th round.

 

Unlike known disappointments like Harty whom everyone was talking up at this time last year, or the perennially underachieving Samuel I suppose.  

 

 

[Chaos]

22 minutes ago, Gregg said:

I want to see how the draft goes. Window #1 to win a Super Bowl with Allen has closed. Window #2 is now opening. They need to get younger and add more skill especially around Josh on offense. I am looking forward to the draft with 11 picks. Hopefully Beane can hit a HR with his picks.

Why do you think there are multple windows? 

If there are multiple windows, why did window #1 close?
Why is window #2 opening?
What do you think will be different between window #1 and window #2?

[Gregg]

1 minute ago, Chaos said:

Why do you think there are multple windows? 

If there are multiple windows, why did window #1 close?
Why is window #2 opening?
What do you think will be different between window #1 and window #2?

 

Alot of the players on defense have gotten old. Both Poyer and Hyde are gone for example. The team has released a number of players already this offseason. The team has to get younger and add more skill around Allen. Even Diggs is now so 30 so eventually the Bills will need to find a new #1 WR. Bottom line the core around Allen is changing. That isn't necessarily a bad thing. We all knew this was going to happen and it has.

[Chaos]

1 minute ago, Gregg said:

Bottom line the core around Allen is changing.

Do you expect this new core to be better than the old core? 

[Gregg]

1 minute ago, Chaos said:

Do you expect this new core to be better than the old core? 

 

That depends on Beane. If he has a great draft, then yes, I do. 

[GASabresIUFan]

I’d give Beane a solid B for this off-season so far.

 

He was facing a huge uphill battle to get under the cap (a problem of his own making).  However, with a little help from the NFL, Miller and Knox he managed to get the job done with minimal damage to the starting group.

 

With the retention of Jones and Epenesa, Beane brings back 17 of 22 starters on O & D. On offense starts Morse and Davis depart and on defense Hyde, Poyer and Floyd depart, but Floyd is replaced by Espenesa.

 

Reviewing the major areas of change: 

 

OL - Out with Morse and Bates.  In with the Clapp.  McGovern moves to center and Edwards moves to from back up guard to starter.  The line was a major strength last year and could be again if McGovern can replace Morse effectively.  
 

WR - Out with Davis, Harry and Sherfield.  In with Hollins and Samuel.   Samuel and Hollins are upgrades over Harty and Sherfield, but neither stretches the field nor are they a replacement for Davis.  Samuel is a slot receiver whose numbers, such as Yards/catch, catch%, YAC/catch, and explosive plays, are all inferior to the slot  receiver we already have in Shakir.  When they draft a boundary receiver, Samuel will ultimately be relegated to our 5th best receiving option.  Not sure spending $8 million on the 5th option is a wise cap decision.  That said this group is deeper and more talented than last year.

 

D Line - Out - Floyd, Settle, Ford, Phillips and Lawson.  In - Johnson and Toohill.  Obviously, we are still down a few players and this is where the biggest questions lie.  Can Miller, Epenesa or a draft pick step-up to replace the loss of Floyd? Can Jones stay healthy? If the answers are yes, then the line will be fine.  I’m also interested to see what Jonathan can do.

 

Safety - Out with Hyde (?) and Poyer. In with Edwards. Rapp becomes a starter.  Going from aging stars Poyer and Hyde to Rapp and Edwards is a downgrade.  Beane says he’s open to Hyde returning.  I’d be happier with a stud early in the draft like Bullard, Bullock, Kinchens, or Hicks.  Beane needs to invest here finally.  
 

Overall the two lines and the safeties have been downgraded on paper this off-season, but I’m not overly concerned about the lines.  The safeties do concern me. Edwards and Rapp only played 50% of their team’s snaps last season for a reason.  Each guy only started because of injuries and neither graded out all that well. PFF graded both at 56.5 & 56.4 respectively.

 

Only the WR group has been upgraded, but not in the area of greatest need.  

The bottomline is with the starters mostly intact, the team will be very good assuming they stay healthy.  The offense should be more dynamic with Samuel and assuming they draft a deep threat.  Hopefully Miller, Epenesa and Jonathan step up on the D line to actually make it as effective as last year and that McGovern plays as well as Morse did to anchor the OLine.

Edited March 25 by GASabresIUFan

[BananaB]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

No, two IMOs, one has a chance to, a likely will, and an assumption that we'll draft a viable WR capable of doing what you suggest.  

 

There's quite a bit of room for things not falling the way that you say.  

 

Again, much of the talk about Harty last season was the same as that for Samuel now.  Doesn't matter the kick out the door talk now.  

 

 

 

Unlike known disappointments like Harty whom everyone was talking up at this time last year, or the perennially underachieving Samuel I suppose.  

 

 

A lot of people weren’t happy with the Harty sign. Samuel has proven he is consistent player in this league where Harty had one solid season. To be honest I think your biggest problem in this chat is you think the O is gonna be similar to Daboll and Dorsey, it’s not. Davis disappeared when McD made the change at OC, so looking for a guy to fill his roll the way he was used previously might not be needed. 

[T master]

I most generally feel good about the team with Beane & McD in charge . As long as we have 17 behind the center we should have a above average team but all the other teams are getting better too so then there's that .

 

My favorite player in the first round has become Leggett, i watched his tape & from anything i've heard his speed & size is very good then to pair him with who we have & have acquired i think Brady has everything he needs to put points on the board pretty much at will as long as his scheme is sound .

 

GO BILLS !!!!