Marquise Brown going to the Chiefs

[beebe]

2 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

You can put down any stats you want (which Hollywood wins) but then everyone will say because Samuels hasn't played with a good QB. So then we are guessing at who is better and yet we gave him more money based on Beane scouting him coming out of college 7 years ago which doesn't give me a lot of confidence. I just watch the tape and make my own conclusions. Hollywood is much better, better hands, much more dynamic. He will be a 1000 yard guy in KC. Samuels will be lucky to get to Gabe Davis levels. He's a converted RB and he looks like it when he catches the ball. We know who the bigger name is but watch the tape and see for yourself 

 

Brady's familiarity with Samuel, and Samuel already being familiar with Brady's system (or at least terminology) makes me think this has a good chance of working out just fine for the Bills. Free agency is a crap shoot, especially at the receiver position, because it can be hard to fully understand:

 

a) why or why not a player was or wasn't successful at the previous stop

b) how exactly the acquired player will fit your scheme

c) what the player's work ethic/leadership ability looks like

 

Brady knows the answer to all three of these questions. 

[KDIGGZ]

1 minute ago, beebe said:

 

Brady's familiarity with Samuel, and Samuel already being familiar with Brady's system (or at least terminology) makes me think this has a good chance of working out just fine for the Bills. Free agency is a crap shoot, especially at the receiver position, because it can be hard to fully understand:

 

a) why or why not a player was or wasn't successful at the previous stop

b) how exactly the acquired player will fit your scheme

c) what the player's work ethic/leadership ability looks like

 

Brady knows the answer to all three of these questions. 

Yes I'm sure that is a huge part of it and there are other things that we don't know like did Hollywood even want to come here or did they have any other plans for Samuel like kick returns or something that they haven't mentioned. Hollywood signed a 1 year deal maybe because he wants to put up some good numbers, win a Superbowl, then get a big long term contract like what Juju did with KC. Maybe Bills wanted something more long term. We definitely don't know the details but I think apples to apples Hollywood is better 

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

Hard to argue against that but the philosophy of filling the roster with decent cap friendly wr’s should still apply with Allen.

 

Looking back tying that much resource to 1 receiver in Diggs has set the Bills back. KC let their star receiver go and opted for a platoon of so so guys that don’t cost much. That has certainly worked out very well for them. 

The Chiefs are lucky that their #1 target in Kelce only dictates top TE money which is considerably less than top WR money. They were also blessed that Tyreek didn’t have the same reputation he does now when he was first extended, and neither did Kelce. They had two HoF targets averaging a total of $27M in salary when Mahomes was starting out. Even now, Kelces AAV is only $14M. 

 

Buffalo has to deal with the problem in a different way because we don’t have Kelce and we didn’t have a Tyreek. The thing that I and quite a few others have pounded the table for since 2020, since Diggs was still elite and was going to be paid quite heavily, was to continually draft WR’s to give cost-controlled targets to Allen that we could just let walk while Diggs maintained his elite status and elite paycheck. And if Diggs lost a step, you could cut bait, extend out the most promising young guy, and keep the good times rolling.

 

Unfortunately, Brandon Beane forgot about the WR position, which is why we never had a serious backup for Davis/Diggs and why WR has been a need for like 3 seasons now. It’s why Trent Sherfield was put in a position to lose us playoff games because he is barely an NFL player. It’s why two seasons ago, we had to bring in the corpses of Beasley and Brown mid season.

 

It would be so easy to draft a day 2 WR every other year, and keep a revolving door of cheap, talented guys around Josh, and have quality backups for the boundary instead of having Trent and Kumerow and whatever other bargain bums we signed.

 

The Steelers did this strategy for years when Big Ben was still a great QB. They had (I’m blanking on the name)/Antonio Brown making big bucks, and they drafted Mike Wallace, Emmanuel Sanders, Diontae Johnson, Martavis Bryant etc etc. Results varied of course, but a lot of those guys had some good quality seasons and quite a few of them carved out good careers. None of them got big money extensions with the Steelers. 
 

Josh Allen has his best season when he had one of his best OL (you could argue 2023 was better) and he had his best stable of targets in 2020. That WR room was stacked. Diggs, Beasley, John Brown, Davis. It has only gotten worse from their because Beane continually failed to spend appropriate assets maintaining it.

 

This was all predictable, and imo, the biggest black eye for our front office that has otherwise done a pretty good job. 

[SaulGoodman]

11 hours ago, SCBills said:

My point isn’t about the product on the field.

 

It’s about the fact that the FO very clearly has tried to set Mahomes up with help. 

 

Their efforts to add WRs for Mahomes have been pretty weak so far. 

 

Hill was on the roster when Mahomes entered the league. He's literally the only above average WR Mahomes has had and they traded him in his prime. Since Hill left they added Juju Smith-Schuster (could barely get on the field for a terrible Pats team this year), MVS (mediocre), Toney (LOL), Justyn Ross (haha), Richie James, Justin Watson, Skyy Moore in the late 2nd round (no one could have actually thought he'd be a #1 caliber WR), and Rashee Rice in the late 2nd. Oh, and they brought back Hardman (who couldn't get on the field for a terrible Jets team). 

 

They entered last season banking on Toney, Moore, MVS and a 2nd round rookie. If you're calling that an effort, I'd hate to see a lack of effort. And I don't think anyone would say it was a spectacular effort the previous year in signing Smith-Schuster and MVS. 

 

 

 

Edited March 15 by SaulGoodman

[Beck Water]

25 minutes ago, beebe said:

Brady's familiarity with Samuel, and Samuel already being familiar with Brady's system (or at least terminology) makes me think this has a good chance of working out just fine for the Bills. Free agency is a crap shoot, especially at the receiver position, because it can be hard to fully understand:

 

a) why or why not a player was or wasn't successful at the previous stop

b) how exactly the acquired player will fit your scheme

c) what the player's work ethic/leadership ability looks like

 

Brady knows the answer to all three of these questions. 

 

I don't think the Bills use Brady's former terminology.  But I do think that Joe Brady has a very good idea what Samuel can do and how he wants to use him, and also what kind of player he is in the locker room.

 

1 hour ago, The Jokeman said:

Mecole Hardman and Skyy Moore beg to differ, both were 2nd Round picks and let's just say they haven't been consistent producers. 

 

I mean, no team, and I mean NO team, hits on their draft picks consistently.

 

KC had no idea that Clyde Edwards Helaire would get sent to the bench by a 7th round pick who turned out to have a Tiger in his Tank.

 

 

Edited March 15 by Beck Water

[Beck Water]

36 minutes ago, SaulGoodman said:

 

Their efforts to add WRs for Mahomes have been pretty weak so far. 

 

Hill was on the roster when Mahomes entered the league. He's literally the only above average WR Mahomes has had and they traded him in his prime. Since Hill left they added Juju Smith-Schuster (could barely get on the field for a terrible Pats team this year), MVS (mediocre), Toney (LOL), Justyn Ross (haha), Richie James, Justin Watson, Skyy Moore in the late 2nd round (no one could have actually thought he'd be a #1 caliber WR), and Rashee Rice in the late 2nd. Oh, and they brought back Hardman (who couldn't get on the field for a terrible Jets team). 

 

They entered last season banking on Toney, Moore, MVS and a 2nd round rookie. If you're calling that an effort, I'd hate to see a lack of effort. And I don't think anyone would say it was a spectacular effort the previous year in signing Smith-Schuster and MVS. 

 

At the time the Chiefs signed TikTokBoi, he was coming off IR but had shown strong, at times elite, performance with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger throwing to him (with Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges, Not So Much).  

 

So dissing off that signing because of how SS performed the year AFTER he left KC, not really reasonable assessment.  JJSS was a very good, at times great, WR in Pitts when he had real QB, and the expectation in KC was that he'd return to form with Mahomes.  And he pretty much did, hauling in 78 receptions for 933 yds.  His catch % of 77% was insane.

 

The Chiefs weren't expecting Skyy Moore to be a #1 receiver, they were expecting that of JJSS.  That said, they didn't get what they wanted in development from Moore, which is why they drafted Rashee Rice. Who by the way, developed very nicely as the season went along and wound up close to 1000 yds.  That's kind of typical of the draft, you won't always hit, you may have to take 2 or 3 shots for that.

 

When you're paying an elite QB, teams have by and large 2 choices in how they acquire WR: 

1) potential gems with a flaw - guys who have in some sense underperformed expectations but you think can shine with The Man at QB polishing them

2) draft until you hit on one.

 

 

Edited March 15 by Beck Water

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, BBFL said:

 

Quite a few, from the top of my head without much thought I can come up with 13 teams. 
 

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota

Jamar Chase/Tee Higgins, Cincinnati

DJ Moore, Chicago

Brandon Aiyuk, San Fran

DK Metcalf, Seattle

AJ Brown, Philadelphia 

Mike Evans, Tampa

George Pickens, Pittsburgh

Amari Cooper, Cleveland

Amon St. Brown, Detroit

Chris Olave, New Orleans

Christian Watson, Green Bay

Puka Nacua, LA Rams

 

That’s over a 1/3 of the NFL. 

 

Could even go further and add other guys like:

Michael Wilson, Arizona

CeeDee Lamb, Dallas

Nico Collins, Houston

Josh Palmer, LA Chargers

Courtland Sutton, Denver

Drake London, Atlanta

 

 

Thats well over half the league that have a guy who does all of what he suggested…

 

Not that much of a rarity. 

 

🤷‍♂️

 

 

 "big WR who can block, get deep, win contested throws, catch the ball in clutch moments, and block downfield"

 

you first listed a bunch of WR1s (except Higgins, Watson...).

 

A fraction of those guys might do everything/fit all criteria on the poster's wish list. a good number   of them aren't over 6 feet tall, for starters.

 

The second group has several depth guys. less likely to check all those boxes

[Beck Water]

35 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

Yes I'm sure that is a huge part of it and there are other things that we don't know like did Hollywood even want to come here or did they have any other plans for Samuel like kick returns or something that they haven't mentioned. Hollywood signed a 1 year deal maybe because he wants to put up some good numbers, win a Superbowl, then get a big long term contract like what Juju did with KC. Maybe Bills wanted something more long term. We definitely don't know the details but I think apples to apples Hollywood is better 

 

The thing is, they aren't "apples to apples" players. 

 

One of them has of recent been playing 70% of his snaps in the slot, but can also play out wide (that's Samuel).  He's been a consistent contributor there on 2 teams, and with some poor QB throwing to him.  He had his best season under Joe Brady as OC in CAR.

 

The other (Brown) was drafted in the 1st round and traded for a 1st round pick because he was seen as having Justin Jefferson-like potential to contribute.  From that perspective, he's just shown flashes.  Maybe it's the offenses he's been playing in, or the specific QB throwing to him, but by some perspectives he's been a bust, he hasn't lived up to his 1st round billing.  He also bitched his way off the Ravens after finally breaking 1000 yds.

 

The contracts aren't "apples to apples" either.

 

One of them signed a contract that will allow the Bills to retain his services for several years.

 

The other signed a 1 year "prove it" deal.  I expect when the details come out, we'll find that the Bills cap hit from Samuel this year is less than the Chiefs are paying for Brown.

[Niagara Dude]

4 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Honestly they probably should’ve traded Diggs when he wanted more money in 2022. That’s a tough decision that not many fans would’ve liked. I hope the Bills never pay a 29 year old WR top 5 money again unless he’s just a rare talent.

Exactly ,  the Chiefs traded Hill who was 27 when he ask for another big contract.  Diggs is good but not elite and it was a terrible decision to give him that contract just before turning 29. It's one of the worse contracts in the NFL,  almost 28 million for the next 2 seasons alone with dead cap hits of 31 and 22 mil along with 28 million in 3 seasons with 13 million dead cap. Diggs is the biggest reason why this team can't add talent through free agency and he is no longer young enough to be a big difference maker.  

 

Beane gave away too much to guys that were old and not elite 

[BBFL]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 "big WR who can block, get deep, win contested throws, catch the ball in clutch moments, and block downfield"

 

you first listed a bunch of WR1s (except Higgins, Watson...).

 

A fraction of those guys might do everything/fit all criteria on the poster's wish list. a good number   of them aren't over 6 feet tall, for starters.

 

The second group has several depth guys. less likely to check all those boxes

Oh so now they have to be something other than a #1? Lol

 

Whteher they are a number 1 or not is irrelevant. Neither was them having to be 6”1+…

 

6”0 is plenty when you couple that with their weight of 215lbs+. 
 

Keep changing it until the narrative is exactly where I’m wholly wrong. 🤘

[Mr. WEO]

3 minutes ago, BBFL said:

Oh so now they have to be something other than a #1? Lol

 

Whteher they are a number 1 or not is irrelevant. Neither was them having to be 6”1+…

 

6”0 is plenty when you couple that with their weight of 215lbs+. 
 

Keep changing it until the narrative is exactly where I’m wholly wrong. 🤘

 

the narrative was not mine, and I quoted it for you.  it's quite a list....in fact (and obviously) it describes a perfect WR, which may not exist.

[Success]

4 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Would anyone trade straight up right now their top 4 for our top 4?

 

Stefon Diggs

Curtis Samuel

Khalil Shakir 

Dalton Kincaid
 

For

Rashee Rice

Marquise Brown

Justin Watson

Travis Kelce

 

 

Diggs when healthy is obviously way better than Rice.  And Rice doesn't even have the body of work to show that he can be consistent.

 

Personally, I'd rather have Samuel than Brown because of the more versatile skillset - but that one is about even.

 

Shakir is better than Watson, and I'm gonna bet a young Kincaid just about matches an aging Kelce in the next 1-2 years.  I certainly wouldn't trade the younger guy for Kelce at this point.

 

So, it's not even close. No way would I trade our group for theirs.  And we'll probably get a better guy in the draft also.

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

I don't think the Bills use Brady's former terminology.  But I do think that Joe Brady has a very good idea what Samuel can do and how he wants to use him, and also what kind of player he is in the locker room.

 

 

I mean, no team, and I mean NO team, hits on their draft picks consistently.

 

KC had no idea that Clyde Edwards Helaire would get sent to the bench by a 7th round pick who turned out to have a Tiger in his Tank.

 

 

 

There were plays last year where they used diggs as a running back in motion or running routes out of the backfield.  I think you can run those plays with samuel, and keep diggs out on the boundary stressing their defense more vertically where he excels (the guy runs every route well, and can create space inside and out.  

1 minute ago, Success said:

 

Diggs when healthy is obviously way better than Rice.  And Rice doesn't even have the body of work to show that he can be consistent.

 

Personally, I'd rather have Samuel than Brown because of the more versatile skillset - but that one is about even.

 

Shakir is better than Watson, and I'm gonna bet a young Kincaid just about matches an aging Kelce in the next 1-2 years.  I certainly wouldn't trade the younger guy for Kelce at this point.

 

So, it's not even close. No way would I trade our group for theirs.  And we'll probably get a better guy in the draft also.

 

 

I'd prefer brown if we didn't already have diggs.  I like browns ability to attack more down the field in our offense, but i think thats a position buffalo can look at in the draft as Buffalo needs to create options for life after diggs.  Considering you probably have diggs through 2025, a rookie this year still would have 2 years on his deal so the dead cap hit doesn't hurt as much.  

Edited March 15 by Bleeding Bills Blue

[SaulGoodman]

54 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

At the time the Chiefs signed TikTokBoi, he was coming off IR but had shown strong, at times elite, performance with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger throwing to him (with Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges, Not So Much).  

 

So dissing off that signing because of how SS performed the year AFTER he left KC, not really reasonable assessment.  JJSS was a very good, at times great, WR in Pitts when he had real QB, and the expectation in KC was that he'd return to form with Mahomes.  And he pretty much did, hauling in 78 receptions for 933 yds.  His catch % of 77% was insane.

 

I think it's very relevant to point out that Smith-Schuster did almost nothing the season after KC. He hasn't been very good for years. Partly due to injuries, but the end result is a mediocre player. Reid and Mahomes made him look better than he is, and it's not like he put up eye-popping numbers. Somebody other than Kelce had to make a play now and then. 

 

Bills fans complain that Diggs/Shakir/Davis isn't nearly enough help for Allen. Imagine what they'd say about Smith-Schuster, MVS and Watson. And they'd probably have rioted if the Bills trotted out what KC had at WR last year. 

 

54 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

The Chiefs weren't expecting Skyy Moore to be a #1 receiver, they were expecting that of JJSS.  That said, they didn't get what they wanted in development from Moore, which is why they drafted Rashee Rice. Who by the way, developed very nicely as the season went along and wound up close to 1000 yds.  That's kind of typical of the draft, you won't always hit, you may have to take 2 or 3 shots for that.

 

When you're paying an elite QB, teams have by and large 2 choices in how they acquire WR: 

1) potential gems with a flaw - guys who have in some sense underperformed expectations but you think can shine with The Man at QB polishing them

2) draft until you hit on one.

 

 

No one should have ever expected Smith-Schuster to be a legit #1. He was around #5 on a bad Patriots offense. Wasn't good his last few years in Pitt and was coming off an injury. Banking on that guy to be your #1 is not what I'd call investing in big help for your QB. 

[Success]

@Billl - this is a Bills board, and I'm gonna make pro-Bills posts.  I could do without the laughing emojis when I go pro-Bills, on a Bills board.

 

We have posters here who are very pro-Chiefs, so that should at least meet some minimum requirement you have for KC worship on opposing team's boards.  And beyond that, I'm sure you can get a lot of pro-Chiefs stuff on, you know - Chiefs boards.

 

Also, I'd be curious why that post was so uproarious.  Do you think Rice will ever be as good as Diggs?  You think Watson is better than Shakir?

 

Right now - you wouldn't trade Kelce for Kincaid, looking toward the future?

 

 

Edited March 15 by Success

[Beck Water]

13 minutes ago, Niagara Dude said:

Exactly ,  the Chiefs traded Hill who was 27 when he ask for another big contract.  Diggs is good but not elite and it was a terrible decision to give him that contract just before turning 29. It's one of the worse contracts in the NFL,  almost 28 million for the next 2 seasons alone with dead cap hits of 31 and 22 mil along with 28 million in 3 seasons with 13 million dead cap. Diggs is the biggest reason why this team can't add talent through free agency and he is no longer young enough to be a big difference maker.  

 

Beane gave away too much to guys that were old and not elite 

 

At the point where Beane signed Diggs to his contract extension in the 2022 off-season, Diggs had been the #1 WR in the league in 2020 and was #5 in targets, #8 in yards in 2021.  It's kind of hard to argue that's "good but not elite".  #1 is usually .....elite.  It's also worth noting that at the time his contract was signed, it slotted in with his production.

 

Currently on average value, Diggs is the #5 paid WR.  Is that an over-value?  Diggs was #13 in the league for receiving yards last season, #7 for targets and #7 for receptions.  
 

It's worth noting that roughly half (9) of the top 20 WR for receiving yards in the league last year are playing on their rookie deals.  That goes for 5 of the 11 WR who had more yards than Diggs - Amon-Ra St Brown, Puka Nacua, Brandon Aiyuk, Nico Collins, and Ja'marr Chase.  So Diggs is paid at #5 and produced as #8 of the WR who are on their 2nd contracts.

 

It's pretty hard to make an argument that it was a "terrible decision" or that it's one of the "worst contracts in the NFL" based on fact.

 

In terms of cap hit, a big problem is that the Bills have a couple very highly paid players who in the last 2 years have a much bigger gap between their availability/level of play vs. their contract in Tre' White and Von Miller.

 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, SaulGoodman said:

I think it's very relevant to point out that Smith-Schuster did almost nothing the season after KC. He hasn't been very good for years. Partly due to injuries, but the end result is a mediocre player. Reid and Mahomes made him look better than he is, and it's not like he put up eye-popping numbers. Somebody other than Kelce had to make a play now and then. 

 

Beck: "JJSS was a very good, at times great, WR in Pitts when he had real QB, and the expectation in KC was that he'd return to form with Mahomes.  And he pretty much did, hauling in 78 receptions for 933 yds.  His catch % of 77% was insane."

 

SaulGoodman: "He did almost nothing the next season. ..is a mediocre player. He hasn't been very good for years"

 

You know, just as the brokers tell us "past performance doesn't predict future results", having a bad subsequent year doesn't mean the previous one was mediocre.  "Eye popping", no, "number 1 receiver", no., but when KC signed him to an incentive-laden 1 year, $3.8M contract (it had $5.5M in incentives that he met), they were expecting him to be what he had been in Pittsburgh - a very good #2 WR who had moments of great when paired with a great QB and other receiving talent (in KC, that would be Kelce).

 

And with 77% catch %, 78 receptions, 933 and handing over those $5.5M in incentives, that's exactly what KC got.

 

But hey - the fact that he played badly in 2023 in NE must mean yOU're RIgHt!

 

 

 

[Beck Water]

6 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Honestly they probably should’ve traded Diggs when he wanted more money in 2022. That’s a tough decision that not many fans would’ve liked. I hope the Bills never pay a 29 year old WR top 5 money again unless he’s just a rare talent.

 

The difference for KC, is that in the KC receiving corps Travis Kelce has always been "Pat's Guy".  There were a couple years where Hill had more yards and/or receptions, but Kelce has always been the go-to guy for Mahomes.

 

So when KC traded Hill, they still had "Pat's Guy"

 

I think the real problem with Diggs is that, as I think one of the Cover1 guys put it, "the Bro-mance is Over" with Josh.  Reportedly at one point in the 2022 season they were barely talking to one another.

[BigAl2526]

Kind of a Tyreek Hill clone.  We all know how dangerous Hill is.  We know KC will be good.  That's a given.  A team like the Bills can't be afraid of that.  They need to go after KC and any other team in their way.  Even with cap constraints, I think the Bills can get better this year.  Signing Samuel was step one.  Now they need to find safeties who can approximate what the Bills did with Hyde and Poyer.  Rapp and Lewis don't do that. 

 

[SaulGoodman]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

Beck: "JJSS was a very good, at times great, WR in Pitts when he had real QB, and the expectation in KC was that he'd return to form with Mahomes.  And he pretty much did, hauling in 78 receptions for 933 yds.  His catch % of 77% was insane."

 

SaulGoodman: "He did almost nothing the next season. ..is a mediocre player. He hasn't been very good for years"

 

He was never a true #1 WR. He put up big numbers one year when defenses were keying on Antonio Brown. He was always a slow possession WR. A decent two or three, but far from a legit 1. 

 

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

You know, just as the brokers tell us "past performance doesn't predict future results", having a bad subsequent year doesn't mean the previous one was mediocre.  "Eye popping", no, "number 1 receiver", no., but when KC signed him to an incentive-laden 1 year, $3.8M contract (it had $5.5M in incentives that he met), they were expecting him to be what he had been in Pittsburgh - a very good #2 WR who had moments of great when paired with a great QB and other receiving talent (in KC, that would be Kelce).

 

That's a miniscule contract. What about that suggests "we expect a huge year from this player?" If anything, it proves my point. A 1 year, incentive-laden "prove it" deal that is small even including incentives. Because they knew it was a gamble, and that even if he stayed healthy, he wasn't elite. And if the expectation around the league was that Smith-Schuster would have a very productive year, someone would have paid him much more. 

 

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

And with 77% catch %, 78 receptions, 933 and handing over those $5.5M in incentives, that's exactly what KC got.

 

But hey - the fact that he played badly in 2023 in NE must mean yOU're RIgHt!

 

 

Well, one thing's for sure....the poster who said that KC has made major efforts at WR in the Mahomes era was dead wrong. Drafting a few late 2nd rounders and signing mediocre vets isn't an extensive effort to surround Mahomes with great weapons. Particularly by the standards of Bills fans who think that a perfectly solid Bills receiving corps (plus two good TEs) is woefully inadequate for Allen. 

 

There's a consistent theme on this board: pretend that Mahomes has had everything and Allen's had nothing. Both are far from accurate.