We are set at WR. Maybe we’ll grab one in Round 6.

[Kirby Jackson]

6 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Of course, those of us who agree on this are going to find these points insightful, and the contrary views obtuse to the obvious. All the same, a very cogent point.

Absolutely

 

It is an evolving point though. The positional values have changed over time. QB is always going to be at the top of the market. QB aside, WR & pass rusher are the next most expensive positions. OT and CB would come after that. 

[Big Turk]

4 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

Ok. So you do that so now your WR5 is locked up, but who are you starting at Free Safety?
The 4th round rookie you drafted instead of prioritizing your needs?

Who is your first CB in when Benford or Douglas get a breather or get banged up?
Cam Lewis?

I just don't see it as a high priority need at all. You can get productive WRs on the street.

 

Safety is the RB of the defense. You can plug almost anyone into this scheme and they will be OK.

 

People need to stop worrying about Defense. McD can scheme up enough answers during the regular season.

 

During the playoffs it doesn't matter anyway no matter how good they are, the offense is going to need to carry them because they can't stop anyone when it counts.

 

Load up on offense and do enough on D to get by.

 

The definition of insanity is doing the same things over and over again that haven't worked and expecting different results.

 

The focus needs to be on offense, forget the defense. Fill it in like they did with the offense last year.

 

Also, plenty of viable safeties will be around in the 5th and 6th rounds. You don't waste high picks on non difference making positions.

Edited March 17 by Big Turk

[Mat68]

5 hours ago, NewEra said:

I’m starting to think the same thing- not sure if we’d bypass certain WRs in rd 2 if they’re there, but I could see us taking DE, S, OT or IOL if they are BPA.

 

Diggs

Samuel

Shakir

Hollins 

day 2 or 3 draft pick

Shorter/cheap FA WR

 

i really think Cooper Dejean will be our pick if he’s there (because I think he’ll likely be the BPA IF available @28 and has the versatility McD loves).  Chop Robinson could be next up, but his size may not be what McD is looking for.  Darius Robinson does though

If they draft a cb to convert to safety in rd1 I would throw up. 

[CaptnCoke11]

2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Safety is the RB of the defense. You can plug almost anyone into this scheme and they will be OK.

 

People need to stop worrying about Defense. McD can scheme up enough answers during the regular season.

 

During the playoffs it doesn't matter anyway no matter how good they are, the offense is going to need to carry them because they can't stop anyone when it counts.

 

Load up on offense and do enough on D to get by.

 

The definition of insanity is doing the same things over and over again that haven't worked and expecting different results.

 

The focus needs to be on offense, forget the defense. Fill it in like they did with the offense last year.

 

Also, plenty of viable safeties will be around in the 5th and 6th rounds. You don't waste high picks on non difference making positions.

He can’t scheme up a bowl of jello when it matters most 

[BullBuchanan]

4 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Curtis Samuel wasn’t signed to be the number 2. He was signed to add some explosion. As an Ohio State fan, I’m extremely familiar with his game. He will be in the backfield, the slot and outside some. He’s what they wanted from McKenzie or Harty with more running ability. He absolutely won’t be the number 2. That will come in the draft. They are trying to add a guy with number 1 upside, on a rookie deal. That’s how business is done now.

 

In terms of targets, Diggs isn’t getting 160 again. There are another 146 targets not on the roster. It will be something like 130 for Diggs and 80 for Shakir. 110 more for Kincaid, 50 for Cook, 30 for Hollins and 55 for Samuel. 110 for the number 2 WR not on the roster. There will be another 55 or so spread across everyone else (including Knox). That has them at 620 pass attempts. Last year was 579 (with an emphasis on running the ball). 646 is Allen’s single season high. Feel free to allocate as you see fit if you don’t like my allotment.

 

To recap (620 targets):

diggs - 130

wr2 (1st or 2nd round) - 110

kincaid - 110

Shakir - 80

Samuel - 55 (another 55 carries)

Cook - 50

Knox - 40

Hollins - 30

everyone else - 15

Why would Diggs not get 160 again? He was 6th in the league in targets. Since joining Buffalo he has had:
160

154

164

166

How can you possible imagine that he'll get a 20% target reduction when he's still one of the best receivers in the game and we do not have anyone near his caliber to take them?

Additionally, you're projecting Samuel to a 42% reduction in targets based off his standard and also anticipating he get s acareer high in carries with 55 when his best season was 41, 4 seasons ago when he was 23 years old. Last year he had 7 carries. 4 of his 7 seasons he's had 8 or less rushing attempts. Maybe we use him in that capacity more towards the higher end, but setting a career high 30% over his best in attempts? That requires a massive leap of faith that I just can't make.

To that end I see no reason that Diggs will lose a massive amount of his targets and I don't see any reason why samuel either. I'm going to assume they both get their recent averages of 160 and 90 respectively. I'll use your assumption of 160 targets and leave everyone else estimate alone. That leaves 40 targets for our rookie WR which is on par with what Shakir had last season. I think that's more than generous given the players currently on the roster. Maybe they'll even get 45.

Edited March 17 by BullBuchanan

[BullBuchanan]

3 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Safety is the RB of the defense. You can plug almost anyone into this scheme and they will be OK.

 

People need to stop worrying about Defense. McD can scheme up enough answers during the regular season.

 

During the playoffs it doesn't matter anyway no matter how good they are, the offense is going to need to carry them because they can't stop anyone when it counts.

 

Load up on offense and do enough on D to get by.

 

The definition of insanity is doing the same things over and over again that haven't worked and expecting different results.

 

The focus needs to be on offense, forget the defense. Fill it in like they did with the offense last year.

 

Also, plenty of viable safeties will be around in the 5th and 6th rounds. You don't waste high picks on non difference making positions.

Building a Super Bowl Champion by building a roster designed a shootout offense hasn't really been very successful. New England's best offensive season, their perfect season ended in disappointment, as did Denver's under Manning. The Saints' entire philosophy under Sean Payton was outscore the other team and it worked once when it was new. It hasn't worked for the Dolphins. It hasn't worked for us when we've tried it in the past either.

You need to get elite play from every facet of the game. KC's dynasty runs through Mahomes, but they get big time plays from their defense when it matters. We get strong aggregate performances during the regular season and then our guys disappear when the lights shine brightest. We need dominating players to turn the tide of the game, especially with a mediocre coaching staff like McDermott and his boys. We need guys like Milano, Miller, Oliver, Douglas and guys who aren't on the roster to be playing the best football of their lives in February if we want any chance. In my mind, the key there is the guys we're missing. Someone in the mold of a Ed Reed, Aaron Donald, JJ Watt, Micah Parsons that can be used in multiple different ways gives you more chances where a team can make just one play that wins the game for you. Hell, I'd take Minkah Fitzpatrick.
 

[Kirby Jackson]

5 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

Why would Diggs not get 160 again? He was 6th in the league in targets. Since joining Buffalo he has had:
160

154

164

166

How can you possible imagine that he'll get a 20% target reduction when he's still one of the best receivers in the game and we do not have anyone near his caliber to take them?

Additionally, you're projecting Samuel to a 42% reduction in targets based off his standard and also anticipating he get s acareer high in carries with 55 when his best season was 41, 4 seasons ago when he was 23 years old. Last year he had 7 carries. 4 of his 7 seasons he's had 8 or less rushing attempts. Maybe we use him in that capacity more towards the higher end, but setting a career high 30% over his best in attempts? That requires a massive leap of faith that I just can't make.

To that end I see no reason that Diggs will lose a massive amount of his targets and I don't see any reason why samuel either. I'm going to assume they both get their recent averages of 160 and 90 respectively. I'll use your assumption of 160 targets and leave everyone else estimate alone. That leaves 40 targets for our rookie WR which is on par with what Shakir had last season. I think that's more than generous given the players currently on the roster. Maybe they'll even get 45.

He won’t get 160 again because they don’t have to force the ball to him anymore. That change has already started!! Weeks 9-18 he had 70 targets. That extrapolates to 132 on the year. That’s how Brady used him. This coincides with the emergences of Cook and Kincaid. I expect Diggs to be more effective with his targets. That’s about 8 a game. I’m not imagining anything. It’s math.

 

Yes, I’m expecting Samuel to be used as a weapon. That’s who he is. I’m very familiar with his game (and love the signing). His impact will be in touches. He isn’t a traditional WR. He’s a playmaker. He will catch screens, get carries and run routes. Beane said that they needed more explosion. That’s what he is. He is not the downfield guy, route technician or zone buster. He’s a guy that’s dangerous with the ball in his hands. He’s a rich man’s McKenzie or a poor man’s Deebo.

The guy that they are targeting in the draft is going to be with the intent of being the number 1 as soon as 2025 (potentially). WR cap numbers dictate that you can’t have a top WR and Top QB. KC let Tyreek go and then invested early picks in Moore and Rice. They will probably swing again in the top 65 picks. This is THE great WR draft. The Bills, and many other teams, are looking for a number 1 WR on a rookie deal. They aren’t trying to get the next Justin Shorter. 

They let Gabe walk because they wanted to UPGRADE at that position. They haven’t done that yet. They’ve met with every top end WR in Indy. I think that it’s way, way, way more likely that they move up for a WR than wait past pick 60 for the guy. The days of ignoring WR are over. 
 

You fill out your roster with bodies. In the first round, you draft pass rushers, QBs, WRs, OTs and CBs. That’s 2024. The Bills will not be taking QB or CB. They do not currently have a starting spot at OT either. They have a need at pass rusher for another guy in the rotation. That’s the only other place that they can consider in round 1 and the value isn’t really there. The value and need intersect at WR. Maybe it is AD Mitchell or Xavier Worthy? Maybe Thomas slips? McConkey is a guy that they seem to like a lot. Maybe they push their chips in and try to get to 9 of Odunze or Nabers slips? The Bears need picks. 

Trying to outlast KC has failed as a strategy. You’ve given up 33 PPG to them in the playoffs (at least I think that’s the number). That’s the scheme as much as the bodies coming in and out. Your focus shouldn’t be on trying to outlast them. It should be on outgunning them (and everyone else for that matter). The defensive scheme and current talent (assuming that they continue adding bodies & a S) will be no worse than middle of the league. McDermott always has a top 10 defense. The goal should be to have a top 1 offense to go with that top 10 defense. That’s how they’ll take the next step. The next step happens because of Josh Allen’s greatness. It’s no longer okay to surround Josh with bodies and hope that he elevates them all. Surround him with actual talent. 
 

 

Edited March 17 by Kirby Jackson

[Bill from NYC]

On 3/14/2024 at 8:46 PM, buffblue said:

This is just an awful post

"Deal with it" 😂😂

[HappyDays]

On 3/16/2024 at 8:54 PM, GoBills808 said:

that's why they should be considering moving up for their guy 

 

Really won't be necessary to move up for a WR in this class. There are going to be 4-5 guys available at #28 that are 1st round talents or at least borderline 1st round talents. If there was one that stuck out as an obvious perfect fit in a relatively weak class then I would agree that trading up should be strongly considered, but as it stands we have a golden opportunity to just let the draft come to us and still come away with a possible stud. I would actually be taking offers to move down if anything, ideally no later than #36. Try and get our 3rd round pick back.

 

WR is the biggest priority but the rest of the roster from top to bottom also needs a big influx of young talent, and using as many picks as possible in this draft can prevent us from having to sign the Mack Hollins and Nicholas Morrows of the world in week one of FA.

[Big Turk]

On 3/17/2024 at 1:51 AM, BullBuchanan said:

Building a Super Bowl Champion by building a roster designed a shootout offense hasn't really been very successful. New England's best offensive season, their perfect season ended in disappointment, as did Denver's under Manning. The Saints' entire philosophy under Sean Payton was outscore the other team and it worked once when it was new. It hasn't worked for the Dolphins. It hasn't worked for us when we've tried it in the past either.

You need to get elite play from every facet of the game. KC's dynasty runs through Mahomes, but they get big time plays from their defense when it matters. We get strong aggregate performances during the regular season and then our guys disappear when the lights shine brightest. We need dominating players to turn the tide of the game, especially with a mediocre coaching staff like McDermott and his boys. We need guys like Milano, Miller, Oliver, Douglas and guys who aren't on the roster to be playing the best football of their lives in February if we want any chance. In my mind, the key there is the guys we're missing. Someone in the mold of a Ed Reed, Aaron Donald, JJ Watt, Micah Parsons that can be used in multiple different ways gives you more chances where a team can make just one play that wins the game for you. Hell, I'd take Minkah Fitzpatrick.
 

 

Josh Allen is good enough to make it not matter if he has more surrounding him.

[BullBuchanan]

On 3/17/2024 at 5:38 AM, Kirby Jackson said:

He won’t get 160 again because they don’t have to force the ball to him anymore. That change has already started!! Weeks 9-18 he had 70 targets. That extrapolates to 132 on the year. That’s how Brady used him. This coincides with the emergences of Cook and Kincaid. I expect Diggs to be more effective with his targets. That’s about 8 a game. I’m not imagining anything. It’s math.

 

Yes, I’m expecting Samuel to be used as a weapon. That’s who he is. I’m very familiar with his game (and love the signing). His impact will be in touches. He isn’t a traditional WR. He’s a playmaker. He will catch screens, get carries and run routes. Beane said that they needed more explosion. That’s what he is. He is not the downfield guy, route technician or zone buster. He’s a guy that’s dangerous with the ball in his hands. He’s a rich man’s McKenzie or a poor man’s Deebo.

The guy that they are targeting in the draft is going to be with the intent of being the number 1 as soon as 2025 (potentially). WR cap numbers dictate that you can’t have a top WR and Top QB. KC let Tyreek go and then invested early picks in Moore and Rice. They will probably swing again in the top 65 picks. This is THE great WR draft. The Bills, and many other teams, are looking for a number 1 WR on a rookie deal. They aren’t trying to get the next Justin Shorter. 

They let Gabe walk because they wanted to UPGRADE at that position. They haven’t done that yet. They’ve met with every top end WR in Indy. I think that it’s way, way, way more likely that they move up for a WR than wait past pick 60 for the guy. The days of ignoring WR are over. 
 

You fill out your roster with bodies. In the first round, you draft pass rushers, QBs, WRs, OTs and CBs. That’s 2024. The Bills will not be taking QB or CB. They do not currently have a starting spot at OT either. They have a need at pass rusher for another guy in the rotation. That’s the only other place that they can consider in round 1 and the value isn’t really there. The value and need intersect at WR. Maybe it is AD Mitchell or Xavier Worthy? Maybe Thomas slips? McConkey is a guy that they seem to like a lot. Maybe they push their chips in and try to get to 9 of Odunze or Nabers slips? The Bears need picks. 

Trying to outlast KC has failed as a strategy. You’ve given up 33 PPG to them in the playoffs (at least I think that’s the number). That’s the scheme as much as the bodies coming in and out. Your focus shouldn’t be on trying to outlast them. It should be on outgunning them (and everyone else for that matter). The defensive scheme and current talent (assuming that they continue adding bodies & a S) will be no worse than middle of the league. McDermott always has a top 10 defense. The goal should be to have a top 1 offense to go with that top 10 defense. That’s how they’ll take the next step. The next step happens because of Josh Allen’s greatness. It’s no longer okay to surround Josh with bodies and hope that he elevates them all. Surround him with actual talent. 
 

 

I don't understand how you can make this argument based on past results. Trying to outscore KC when your defense lets them score at every critical juncture results in a best case scenario of 13 seconds. We've already tried the strategy you're recommending and it's repeatedly failed. We went out and got Diggs, a legit Top 5 receiver. We went out and got Kincaid, a top 2 TE in his class. We got a pass catching home run hitter in James cook.  We've made numerous investments in the draft and FA in skill position players to play various roles all with the aim of having a juggernaut offense and we've built one. Yet, the results are, at best, the same as they were before. One could even argue we've regressed the last 2 seasons.

You can add prime Jerry Rice to this stable and Josh still isn't beating Mahomes & Kelce. They are the problem, not KC's defense. Diggs was open for the first down against KC. Shakir was open for the touchdown. Josh didn't get it done. Having one more WR open on that play doesn't yield a completion. You want to make the argument that Dawkins let us down? Well they just signed him to an extension, so that isn't changing.

You've only got two options. Either Josh makes every single critical pass you need him to make(something he has not shown to be common), or you get players on defense that can stop Mahomes from making every critical pass that he has proven he will make. For me it's an easy decision. 33 points a game is not acceptable to me, and it's the reason we're losing imo.

Edited March 18 by BullBuchanan

[Kirby Jackson]

21 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I don't understand how you can make this argument based on past results. Trying to outscore KC when your defense lets them score at every critical juncture results in a best case scenario of 13 seconds. We've already tried the strategy you're recommending and it's repeatedly failed. We went out and got Diggs, a legit Top 5 receiver. We went out and got Kincaid, a top 2 TE in his class. We got a pass catching home run hitter in James cook.  We've made numerous investments in the draft and FA in skill position players to play various roles all with the aim of having a juggernaut offense and we've built one. Yet, the results are, at best, the same as they were before. One could even argue we've regressed the last 2 seasons.

You can add prime Jerry Rice to this stable and Josh still isn't beating Mahomes & Kelce. They are the problem, not KC's defense. Diggs was open for the first down against KC. Shakir was open for the touchdown. Josh didn't get it done. Having one more WR open on that play doesn't yield a completion. You want to make the argument that Dawkins let us down? Well they just signed him to an extension, so that isn't changing.

You've only got two options. Either Josh makes every single critical pass you need him to make(something he has not shown to be common), or you get players on defense that can stop Mahomes from making every critical pass that he has proven he will make. For me it's an easy decision. 33 points a game is not acceptable to me, and it's the reason we're losing imo.

That’s just not true. Since 2018 (Josh draft) the Bills have spent 2739.8 draft value pts on 6 DL; they’ve allocated 144.1 draft value points to 7 WR. If you include Diggs that’s 924.1 points. That’s an average DL draft spot of pick 44. It’s an average WR spot of 177 (96 w Diggs). The Bills continue to allocate their best resources to the defense. It hasn’t worked.

[BigAl2526]

A sixth round WR might not even make the Bills PS right now.  They go WR early or it's irrelevant. 

[BullBuchanan]

9 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That’s just not true. Since 2018 (Josh draft) the Bills have spent 2739.8 draft value pts on 6 DL; they’ve allocated 144.1 draft value points to 7 WR. If you include Diggs that’s 924.1 points. That’s an average DL draft spot of pick 44. It’s an average WR spot of 177 (96 w Diggs). The Bills continue to allocate their best resources to the defense. It hasn’t worked.

That's not the argument I'm making and you know it. It's obvious they've invested heavily in defense in the draft. The difference is they've had more success with their investments on offense. They haven't been able to find those difference makers on defense. Von was supposed to be that guy. Douglas looks like that guy, and hopefully Milano can play a game in January sometime, but that's still not enough.

 

Don't move the goalposts.

Edited March 19 by BullBuchanan

[Kirby Jackson]

7 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

That's not the argument I'm making and you know it. It's obvious they've invested heavily in defense in the draft. The difference is they've had more success with their investments on offense. They haven't been able to find those difference makers on defense. Von was supposed to be that guy. Douglas looks like that guy, and hopefully Milano can play a game in January sometime, but that's still not enough.

 

Don't move the goalposts.

No one is moving the goal posts. The point has been that the Bills have invested HEAVILY in defense and have had a top 5ish defense annually. It hasn’t mattered when they got to Mahomes and Reid in the playoffs. That hasn’t been enough. I provided FACTS to support that when it comes to the draft. Here is another: of those DL drafted, every single one of them was picked earlier than every single WR with the exception of Daryl Johnson. It hasn’t worked!!!
 

The offensive philosophy has been to put whomever on the outside (with the exception of Diggs) and Allen’s greatness will elevate them. That has worked some as well. Imagine if they had guys, other than Diggs, that could win on their own? Imagine if they had guys, other than Josh, that could make plays with the ball in their hands? 
 

Instead of continuing to invest the prime resources on the defensive side of the ball, they need to prioritize WR. They have largely abandoned it and wasted years of Allen’s prime doing that. Your defense may go from top 5 to top 10 in doing so but who cares. You are going to win BECAUSE OF JOSH ALLEN. That is what this team has. Josh Allen was the only Buffalo Bills player ranked in PFFs top 101 players of 2023. The Bills need to stop putting the pieces elsewhere and then hope that he elevates whatever is left on offense. That mindset started to change last year with the Kincaid pick. That will continue this year as they look for their future number 1 WR. Play to your strengths.

 

You don't need to invest top resources on rotational defensive linemen. They’ve invested heavily at LB and in the secondary. When you combine FA dollars with “where guys were drafted” the investment in the defense DWARFS that of the offense. That has been CRIMINAL with Josh Allen in his prime. They have been reactive instead of the aggressive despite having a HOF QB. It’s going to change moving forward. The definition of insanity would be to continue passing out big deals to rotational defensive linemen (ie Settle, Floyd, Phillips, Ford) or high end draft picks on guys that aren’t difference makers (ie Rousseau, Epenesa, Basham, Shaq). Investing in Von and Oliver is one thing. They are elite talents and playmakers. It’s time to give the best player that has ever put on a Bills uniform (with the possible exception of Bruce Smith) what he needs to drag this team to a title. 

Edited March 19 by Kirby Jackson

[Bill from NYC]

On 3/14/2024 at 8:52 PM, Dan in Owego said:

Hypothetical let's say we are stuck at 28 can't find a way up or down. Due to a run on QB and WR an OT like Taliese Fuga falls to our spot, Chop Robinson is also there as well, who do you pick?

VERY good question. I don't know anything about the OT you named but if he is thought to be a fine LT and is still there, I would say grab him.

[BillsFanForever19]

8 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

VERY good question. I don't know anything about the OT you named but if he is thought to be a fine LT and is still there, I would say grab him.

 

We just extended Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown's coming off a very good season. Why would we spend our 1st on a Backup Offensive Tackle?

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

@Gugny level troll there

 

[Bill from NYC]

1 minute ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

We just extended Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown's coming off a very good season. Why would we spend our 1st on a Backup Offensive Tackle?

I was responding to the scenario that the poster raised. My preference is WR, however; top quality OTs are worth their weight in gold, and obviously players get injured. Also Dawkins, a fine LT imo, is huge and will be 30 next month. He would seem to be a pretty decent candidate for an injury.

 

With Josh Allen at qb, protection should be our #1A concern, with 1B being weapons. Now, we can certainly waste another #1 pick on a corner (to play in a zone), an easy to find safety, or a MLB. This is what I expect McDermott (notice that I didn't say Beane) to do. I consider it to be counter productive but this is his history and he even trades up to waste picks (another thing that would fail to shock me). 

 

In any event, taking a LT (assuming the top WRs are gone) would be fine with me. Of course, this is jmo.

 

 

 

 

[MarkKelso'sHelmet]

Draft a receiver in every round. Getting weapons for and protecting Josh Allen is all that matters.

On 3/15/2024 at 7:46 AM, buffblue said:

This is just an awful post

Pure troll ish