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Beane's Offseason - Should he turn the roster over or stay the course?


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Just now, Aussie Joe said:


You said in your OP that “you might sacrifice the 2024 season “…

 

That can’t be an option in prime Josh Allen window in my view … like I said earlier ..still some good young talent on this team 

 

"Might".  Maybe not.  The counterargument about Josh and his prime is simple.  Will tweaking be enough?

They just happen to be talking about it on GMFB right now.  

 

It's a tough question that Beane (if he is truthful) has to ask himself.  That's all I'm saying.

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As I lay in bed after a crappy night’s sleep thinking to myself ..why do I keep doing this?  I genuinely thought we could win yesterday.  But with that thought also came my thoughts of… I knew we needed to score a TD before the half.  Because Andy Reid was going to make adjustments and we wouldn’t.  So we needed at least a 2 score lead to have a chance.   And secondly, I know the FG try was technically the right call under 2mins.  But there’s not a fan among us that truly thinks we could have held KC with that much time on the clock.  We needed to go for the TD, regardless, just to give ourselves a chance.  
 

So, with all that said, there’s no way we should just walk back the same team and staff next year.  It’s been too long and we’ve seen the same mistakes over and over.  I’m not necessarily advocating for a 100% dismantling.  But we need, at a minimum, new OC, DC and Special Teams coach. 
 

Other than Shakir, all new WRs.   A RB that can catch.  A new center, maybe RT.   On Defense, we need several new DL,  at least half of them need to go.   We have Oliver, Jones, and Epeneza and Rousseau. ?  That’s about it.  All new secondary, and better LB depth incase Milano doesn’t return to form.  
 

So what’s that.. a 70% rebuild?   It needs to be significant.  I know they can’t do that all in one year… but maybe?   I’d start with the coaches and go from there.  Yeah next season we suck… but the results will be the same… watching Mahomes and whoever else run all over is the playoffs really isn’t that much fun.  

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2 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

That can’t be an option in prime Josh Allen window in my view … like I said earlier ..still some good young talent on this team 

 

Should be a priority to move on from whatever high-priced defensive liabilities you have right now. Feel bad for that group, but that's the way it goes when you are a part of 13 seconds, last year's debacle vs Cincy, and this year's inability to stop the most neutered KC offense to date.

 

Continue your OL rejuvenation project.

 

Invest in WR.

 

They might still get the 1 seed if they get an MVP season from Allen and train up some new blood on defense.

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Just now, pocoboy said:

 

Should be a priority to move on from whatever high-priced defensive liabilities you have right now. Feel bad for that group, but that's the way it goes when you are a part of 13 seconds, last year's debacle vs Cincy, and this year's inability to stop the most neutered KC offense to date.

 

Continue your OL rejuvenation project.

 

Invest in WR.

 

They might still get the 1 seed if they get an MVP season from Allen and train up some new blood on defense.


Do what is required to make sure they are as competitive as  possible Im 2024… don’t see them eating any more dead cap then strictly necessary 

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2 minutes ago, paulbills said:
  • 2024 - the window is closed barring a deep playoff/super bowl run, it is officially do or die (even though it technically has been since 13 seconds). 
  • 2025 - considering an unsuccessful season (no super bowl) in 2024 is more than likely, the window has now been locked shut, and will probably take 1-3 years to unlock and open it again slowly. 

 

If that is true, then why not do a decent sized re-tool this off season?

That's the question I've asked myself in my OP.

I just don't know.

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With JA17 heading into next season at age 28, I say eat some of those vet contracts this year so he can have a rebuilt core into his early 30s.
 

We have 9 picks, can free up plenty of space, and are already set at QB, RB, TE, OL (we’ll see what happens with Morse), LB, and CB. 
 

Turn it over at WR, some DL, S, and ST. 

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2 minutes ago, gobills404 said:

The contracts for Diggs, Von, White, and Knox are anchors holding this team back in the immediate future. $94 million in dead cap between those 4 players. Gross.

 

I didn't want to get into the numbers, but Diggs and Von would HAVE to be post June cuts.  Diggs could be traded and the Bills eat a lot of $.

Knox has to redo his contract.  Splitting that big dead cap over 2 years can be done.

 

It's a fans question that I asked, it would take some big balls by Beane to try it.

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There is going to be a ton of turn over next year a lot of the players we had this year are gone i'd almost say as much as 1/3 of the team if you think about it .

 

A lot of the guys at the end of their contracts won't be back like Hyde, Epenessa, Gabe, Jones, Floyd, Settle, Phillips, Matakevich, Sheffield, Harris, Rapp, Joseph, Lawson, Murray, K. Allen, Lewis, Morris, Klien, Hines,  are all some kind of FA next season then if they decide to move on from Tre & or some others that's 20 players that might not be here .

 

Totally different team .

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1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

This is a question I've asked myself even before yesterday's loss.

 

Does Beane keep the older guys (and bad contracts) and tweak around the best he can?  Would he think that's enough to get the team

over the hump or does he make the move in 2024 to get younger and put an offense around Josh.

 

I'm not going to get into the weeds about exact numbers (my mind is numb from yesterday) but I think most of you guys (and gals) know what I mean.

 

Move on right now from guys like Von and Diggs (post June cuts) along with White, Morse, Dawkins, Poyer, Harty, Hines, Martin and who knows who else.

Other players have to be approached about their contracts too.  Knox, Neal, Bass

In essence, a big re-tool.  

 

Would Josh have to buy into a plan like this?  Would McDermott?  

If a new HC comes in, it will happen anyway.

 

You might sacrifice the 2024 season, but you structure yourself for the future Bills built around Josh Allen. 

As a fan, I would go along with it if that would be decided.

There are going to be some big questions/decisions for Beane this spring, one way or another!

 

 

Like it or not this will be out biggest year of roster changes,  the Bills will look the same on Offence with maybe a couple of new receivers,  there could at least 4-5 new starters on defence

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14 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

This is a question I've asked myself even before yesterday's loss.

 

Does Beane keep the older guys (and bad contracts) and tweak around the best he can?  Would he think that's enough to get the team

over the hump or does he make the move in 2024 to get younger and put an offense around Josh.

 

I'm not going to get into the weeds about exact numbers (my mind is numb from yesterday) but I think most of you guys (and gals) know what I mean.

 

Move on right now from guys like Von and Diggs (post June cuts) along with White, Morse, Dawkins, Poyer, Harty, Hines, Martin and who knows who else.

Other players have to be approached about their contracts too.  Knox, Neal, Bass

In essence, a big re-tool.  

 

Would Josh have to buy into a plan like this?  Would McDermott?  

If a new HC comes in, it will happen anyway.

 

You might sacrifice the 2024 season, but you structure yourself for the future Bills built around Josh Allen. 

As a fan, I would go along with it if that would be decided.

There are going to be some big questions/decisions for Beane this spring, one way or another!

 

 

There is no tank for a year to rebuild in 2025. I dont think that is possible. You have to make some difficult decisions this year to get better for next year. 

 

Likely moves: White cut, Morse cut, Poyer cut, Harty cut, Hines cut. Some could be restrux or resigned to cheaper deals. These alone are $30M and not hard players to replace.

Restrux: Allen, Diggs, Miller alone give you $40M.

So just the moves above are $70M in savings. If you need more you can restrux guys like Knox, McG, Milano and some others to get another $10M+.

 

That gives you enough to draft a wr, sign a wr, and add some players to the D. 

 

QB Allen

RB Cook, cheap rb's are always available

WR Diggs, Shakir, Free agent, draft pick, draft pick, shorter, other free agents

TE Kincaid, Knox, cheap TE

OL Free agent C or Bates, McG, Torrence, Dawkins, Brown or free agent RT

 

DT Oliver, Jones, Free Agents/Draft Picks

DE Rousseau, Miller, Free Agents/Draft Picks (AJE, Floyd, Phillips, Lawson?)

LB Bernard, Milano, Spector, Williams, Free Agents/Draft Picks

DB Douglas, Johnson, Benford, Elam, Draft/Picks Free Agents

 

 

 

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IMO it doesn’t need torn down but it certainly needs an infusion of talent in certain areas. 
 

QB: Set with Josh

OL is the best it’s been in years and should be a strength next year.

TE: Solid Kincaid and Knox

RB: Good with Cook and Johnson but need to add a young power back. Cook should be on the jug machine all off season.

WR: MUST UPGRADE with more speed and a playmaker.  Need to hit in a deep WR draft. Two picks should go to WR. Beane has to get it right!

 

Defensively, this is where change is needed.

 

CB: Build around Douglas and Benford with Dane and Elam backing up. Taron Johnson in the slot. Solid group

LB: Milano and Benford with good depth with Williams and Dodson. Good core group

S: Hyde, Hamlin are likely gone. I’d resign Rapp if it works but I’m drafting for a S in the draft. Need to add speed and a ballhawk.

DE: Not much you can do with Von. Gotta pray he’s  not a liability in 2024. Bills need to hit in the draft with a pick that becomes an immediate and consistent disruptor. It’s a glaring gap. Floyd, AJE and Shaq are likely gone. They’ve swung and whiffed too many times.

DT: Oliver and hopefully resign Jones. Settle, Ford, Phillips and Joseph probably gone for younger talent.

 

The bigger questions is what happens at the coordinator positions. Our offense while good is too inconsistent and at times everything seems harder than it should. I’d like a proven DC brought it. 

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I would say 7 new starters out of the 22 next year. 1-2 on offense and 5 on defense. Only guys on defense who definitely have a role IMO are Oliver, Milano, Bernard, Douglas, Benford, Johnson. It's possible some guys will be back and starting like Floyd or Jones but it's going to be tough to do that and upgrade WR and bring in the necessary depth. 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, ngbills said:

There is no tank for a year to rebuild in 2025. I dont think that is possible. You have to make some difficult decisions this year to get better for next year. 

 

Likely moves: White cut, Morse cut, Poyer cut, Harty cut, Hines cut. Some could be restrux or resigned to cheaper deals. These alone are $30M and not hard players to replace.

Restrux: Allen, Diggs, Miller alone give you $40M.

So just the moves above are $70M in savings. If you need more you can restrux guys like Knox, McG, Milano and some others to get another $10M+.

 

That gives you enough to draft a wr, sign a wr, and add some players to the D. 

 

QB Allen

RB Cook, cheap rb's are always available

WR Diggs, Shakir, Free agent, draft pick, draft pick, shorter, other free agents

TE Kincaid, Knox, cheap TE

OL Free agent C or Bates, McG, Torrence, Dawkins, Brown or free agent RT

 

DT Oliver, Jones, Free Agents/Draft Picks

DE Rousseau, Miller, Free Agents/Draft Picks (AJE, Floyd, Phillips, Lawson?)

LB Bernard, Milano, Spector, Williams, Free Agents/Draft Picks

DB Douglas, Johnson, Benford, Elam, Draft/Picks Free Agents

 

 

 

 

Definitely could go the way you say.  

Restructuring Allen, Diggs, Milano, Knox, McGovern and Von Miller IS staying the course.

 

I was just thinking out loud about the alternatives.

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Who stays and who goes

 

 

Who stays:

 

Offense:

 

OL David Edwards

 

Defense:

 

Daquan Jones

Micah Hyde or Taylor Rapp

Epenesa

Dodsen

Shaq Lawson

Dane Jackson

 

everyone else from the list goes.

 

Tradavious White - Roster cut

 

 

Replace most of the depth with draft picks.

 

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Beane makes his bones in the draft. He really hasn’t been good enough. Time for him to really step it up. 
Too many early misses, and no stud receivers which we desperately desperately need. 
 

The writing is clear..My guess is that he will not be afraid to dump salary in old vets because it is not getting the job done. 
he must rely on the draft this year to fill positions where old vets vacated. 
 

 

.
 

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4 minutes ago, TFBillsfan said:

IMO it doesn’t need torn down but it certainly needs an infusion of talent in certain areas. 
 

QB: Set with Josh

OL is the best it’s been in years and should be a strength next year.

TE: Solid Kincaid and Knox

RB: Good with Cook and Johnson but need to add a young power back. Cook should be on the jug machine all off season.

WR: MUST UPGRADE with more speed and a playmaker.  Need to hit in a deep WR draft. Two picks should go to WR. Beane has to get it right!

 

Defensively, this is where change is needed.

 

CB: Build around Douglas and Benford with Dane and Elam backing up. Taron Johnson in the slot. Solid group

LB: Milano and Benford with good depth with Williams and Dodson. Good core group

S: Hyde, Hamlin are likely gone. I’d resign Rapp if it works but I’m drafting for a S in the draft. Need to add speed and a ballhawk.

DE: Not much you can do with Von. Gotta pray he’s  not a liability in 2024. Bills need to hit in the draft with a pick that becomes an immediate and consistent disruptor. It’s a glaring gap. Floyd, AJE and Shaq are likely gone. They’ve swung and whiffed too many times.

DT: Oliver and hopefully resign Jones. Settle, Ford, Phillips and Joseph probably gone for younger talent.

 

The bigger questions is what happens at the coordinator positions. Our offense while good is too inconsistent and at times everything seems harder than it should. I’d like a proven DC brought it. 

 

Re-signing the guys you want and getting the upgrades cost $.  Bills don't have any, so it has to come from restructuring ALL the big

player contracts.  I just don't know if that is the right thing to do this offseason.

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12 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Re-signing the guys you want and getting the upgrades cost $.  Bills don't have any, so it has to come from restructuring ALL the big

player contracts.  I just don't know if that is the right thing to do this offseason.

The #1 resign is D Jones. Otherwise the vast majority of upgrades need to occur thru the draft (WR, DE, S and power RB). Critical draft for Beane and ideally he needs to hit on 3 starters.  

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Ive said there will be two phases of Josh Allen's career: 

 

Phase One:  Coming to an end now.

 

Phase Two:  mini rebuild.  There will be a year or two of meh.  Then another run..  Then Josh's career will be done.

 

mini rebuild is on.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Just stop. 
 

It’s going to take significant roster maneuvering just to get under the cap, they aren’t going to blow the roster up which will create more dead cap.  

Agree, when we step back from the ledge this team is right there. They are in need of a few upgrades but the core is strong. They beat almost every playoff team during the regular season and lost to KC because they failed to make critical plays in critical moments. A playmaker at WR and a DE that is a high motor disruptor would be a huge upgrade. 

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