All-22 analysis of Bills/Jags

[newcam2012]

34 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Oh there’s tons of criticism warranted haha they did not play well and I absolutely agree that the receivers past diggs were an issue.

the offensive line which has been solid all season got steamrolled in this one also.  

 

I think Kincaid will be a very reliable slot option if he gets the opportunity but he and Knox are busy chipping for Spencer brown who needs a lot of help when he draws a tougher offensive line matchup. Then everyone criticizes the usage of Knox/Kincaid a little bit unjustly imo.  
 

by comfortably I meant a one score win that didn’t really feel like was in a lot of danger of getting away from us…I’m not trying to say we would’ve blown them out which seems like is what you took out of the sentence which is fair based on the wording but not really what I meant. 
 

Criticism in general is welcomed and certainly warranted after that game I just respectfully disagree with a lot of the directions the criticisms have gone.  They feel really hindsight-y and cherry picked at times especially when people try to evaluate offensive playcalling. Like obviously if you know your team is going to drop every single wide open third down pass before it happens you’d know you had to start attacking deeper downfield on earlier downs just as one example.  I’m sure Dorsey was losing his mind in the booth watching that go down 😂. 
 

and then things like ‘Knox and Kincaid should be running deeper routes and not chipping’…that’s easy to say now because we lost but there’s a good chance if we tried that in the game things would’ve gone even worse with how much stress the offensive line was already under. 

The defense is kind of getting a free pass also based on the circumstances which I completely understand, but the offense had bad field position all game long because the jaguars were converting a lot of third downs and driving the ball downfield without a lot of resistance 

Poor offensive line, bad field position, stone hands on third down, diggs getting a ball wrestled out of his hands, defensive injuries all played a part in that loss and I just think we’re exaggerating the state of the team based on the results of this one game.  Milano and jones may be done for the year but a lot of the defensive players we lost will certainly be returning 

 

 

 

Nice response!

Edited October 11, 2023 by newcam2012

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, 90sBills said:

It looked that way on TV as well. Diggs had to slow down because the ball was under thrown. He did all he could to try and catch that ball. Yet people still say Allen threw a great pass and blamed Diggs for the int. Unbelievable. Making plays like that win close tough games. Opportunities are few in tough games so they need to be capitalized. 

 

When Allen’s bad throws get pointed out in posts like this certain fans just can’t accept it. I really don’t get it. He’s a great qb. But he makes mistakes too. It’s ok to call it out. 

 

I think people underestimate how hard it is to throw a pass that deep.

 

Quote

Allen has a league-high five completions traveling 60-plus yards in the air since entering the league in 2018.

 

Let that sink in... since 2018 Allen has a league-high five.... five completions of 60+ air yards since 2018.  These passes just don't happen.

 

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/analysis-josh-allen-led-nfl-in-deep-passing-in-2022/article_7b4afef2-9050-11ed-922c-c3e8a2f6dfc0.html

 

Want to criticize it fine but he gave his receiver a chance at a 50/50 ball and Diggs didn't come down with it. 

 

Personally, I think Diggs should have been credited the ball from a nfl rules standpoint but I can't find an angle of it showing clearly how both him and the DB came down with the ball.  A 50/50 ball goes to the offense.  IMO they both had hands on the ball when they hit the ground. As soon as they hit the ground it should have been ruled down by contact.  It wasn't until after they landed that the ball got ripped away but whatever.

Edited October 11, 2023 by Scott7975

[GoBills808]

25 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I think people underestimate how hard it is to throw a pass that deep.

 

 

Let that sink in... since 2018 Allen has a league-high five.... five completions of 60+ air yards since 2018.  These passes just don't happen.

 

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/analysis-josh-allen-led-nfl-in-deep-passing-in-2022/article_7b4afef2-9050-11ed-922c-c3e8a2f6dfc0.html

 

Want to criticize it fine but he gave his receiver a chance at a 50/50 ball and Diggs didn't come down with it. 

 

Personally, I think Diggs should have been credited the ball from a nfl rules standpoint but I can't find an angle of it showing clearly how both him and the DB came down with the ball.  A 50/50 ball goes to the offense.  IMO they both had hands on the ball when they hit the ground. As soon as they hit the ground it should have been ruled down by contact.  It wasn't until after they landed that the ball got ripped away but whatever.

I thought the same and wondered if it was worth a challenge

[Scott7975]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

I thought the same and wondered if it was worth a challenge

 

I don't think you can challenge a turnover because they are automatically reviewed.

[Buffalo716]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

I thought the same and wondered if it was worth a challenge

Probably not because usually When the simultaneous catch rule happens... Both the wide receiver and defensive back are usually jockeying for the ball on the ground as the ref breaks them up

 

Through the ground contact and the roll the defensive back had the ball

 

Diggs didn't hold on to it

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Buffalo716 said:

Probably not because usually When the simultaneous catch rule happens... Both the wide receiver and defensive back are usually jockeying for the ball on the ground as the ref breaks them up

 

Through the ground contact and the roll the defensive back had the ball

 

Diggs didn't hold on to it

I'm not 100% on the rule but once they both hit the ground w simultaneous possession isn't it down by contact?

[Scott7975]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I'm not 100% on the rule but once they both hit the ground w simultaneous possession isn't it down by contact?

 

That is my line of thinking but the rule only says this:

Quote

If a pass is caught simultaneously by two eligible opponents, and both players retain it, the ball belongs to the passers. It is not a simultaneous catch if a player gains control first and an opponent subsequently gains joint control. If the ball is muffed after simultaneous touching by two such players, all the players of the passing team become eligible to catch the loose ball.

 

As soon as they hit the ground it is down by contact though so IMO the play should be over right then and there.  If that is the case then it should be Diggs ball.  It's obviously ruled down by contact because they did not let the defender get up and advance the ball.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Scott7975 said:

 

That is my line of thinking but the rule only says this:

 

As soon as they hit the ground it is down by contact though so IMO the play should be over right then and there.  If that is the case then it should be Diggs ball.  It's obviously ruled down by contact because they did not let the defender get up and advance the ball.

yeah i mean if you are down once touched and you're both in possession of the ball in that moment I don't see how that's not worth at least a challenge

 

unless it's one of those plays that can't be challenged

[Buffalo716]

8 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I'm not 100% on the rule but once they both hit the ground w simultaneous possession isn't it down by contact?

The NFL calls it however they want so i don't even think it matters

[Low Positive]

28 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

That is my line of thinking but the rule only says this:

 

As soon as they hit the ground it is down by contact though so IMO the play should be over right then and there.  If that is the case then it should be Diggs ball.  It's obviously ruled down by contact because they did not let the defender get up and advance the ball.

Diggs let the DB rip it out of his hands when they were on the ground and allowed the refs to make that call. He should have held on until they made a decision, but because the Jags player was already running around with the ball they just it stand. Also, if Josh sees him earlier it's a TD.

Edited October 11, 2023 by FrenchConnection

[34-78-83]

Current cover1 analysis pointing out some of our blitzing that didn't quite get home, and also shows that some of both Elam and Dorian's play wasn't so bad. That's at least encouraging.

 

 

 

[Dan]

I finally watched the game… IMO the defense played like their hair was on fire, especially considering half the starters were out.  AJ should be a defensive player of the week nominee. He was insane. 3 batted down passes, sack/fumble/recovery to end a drive.  This was easily his best game. 
 

The offense was out of sync most of the game. It looked like the Jags were all over the short stuff, which allowed them to shut down the run game.  Dorsey should have turned Allen loose sooner.  Once he stared running and throwing deep, they looked completely different.  That may be my biggest issue with Dorsey… he’s slow to make adjustments to his game plans.  
 

In general… the team looked tired.  You could see clearly mid 4th quarter the Bills were gasping for oxygen, while the Jags were like no big deal.   I would say the league has their answer… a rested, London home team has a  big advantage over a jet lagged team flying in a day or two before the game. 
 

The refs gave us no favors!  Wow… I woulda thought we were playing the chiefs or pats the way that game was called. 

Finally, I don’t feel as bad about the loss as I did reading all the reactions here. If not for the fatigue and numerous injuries, I think the Bills win no problem. But they didn’t and now we have significant injuries. That will be the lingering issue.. a tired team suffered huge injuries that could derail the entire season.  Thank you Roger. Hopefully we can survive a few games and get through them without any more injuries. 
 

 

[Buffalo716]

9 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I'm not 100% on the rule but once they both hit the ground w simultaneous possession isn't it down by contact?

Rule 8 section 1 article 3-4

 

Note 4- If a pass is caught simultaneously by two eligible opponents, and both players retain it, the ball belongs to the passers. It is not a simultaneous catch if a player gains control first and an opponent subsequently gains joint control. 

 

I think the key word is both players retain it

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

Rule 8 section 1 article 3-4

 

Note 4- If a pass is caught simultaneously by two eligible opponents, and both players retain it, the ball belongs to the passers. It is not a simultaneous catch if a player gains control first and an opponent subsequently gains joint control. 

 

I think the key word is both players retain it

Yes but at some point the play ends and players can let go of the football. My contention is that play ends as soon as they hit the ground. Like even just a knee. That is down by contact. That is when the play is over. Both hands were on the football at that point. 

[JohnNord]

On 10/9/2023 at 7:22 PM, HappyDays said:

 

Joe Marino does these all-22 review podcasts every week. Mostly he broke down what happened with the offense in this one. Some highlights:

 

-He said the run game failures were mostly a case of running the ball against bad looks. A lot of times the Jaguars had 8 or even 9 men in the box and we chose to run it anyways. The 2nd and 1 pitch to Cook that we lost like 5 yards on, he said we had 2 OL blocking 3 defenders on that side. Unsurprisingly the unblocked defender made an easy tackle for a loss. I don't know if Allen is supposed to audible out of those looks or what, but Dorsey or Allen have to a better job of punishing defenses for heavy boxes.

 

-As far as the passing game, Joe said that Allen played terrific and really wasn't to blame at all for any of our passing struggles. He said there have been times in the past where he's seen Allen turn down easy completions, but in this game he was executing his reads the way they were designed and manipulating the pocket well.

 

-He blames several of our stalled drives on skill players. Cook dropping a pass on the first drive, Knox dropping a pass on a 3rd down, Davis dropping a pass on a 2nd down, all of these he says the pass catcher definitely should have come down with them. He also blames Diggs for the interception after watching a few replays. He says the ball was a tad underthrown but it went 70 yards in the air and Diggs gets both hands on it - that's a situation where he says Diggs simply has to win the catch. He says one run should have gone for 8+ yards, but Cook totally misread the leverage and ran away from his blockers outside for a 0 yard gain.

 

-The Jags did a good job using simulated pressures to get advantages on their pass rush opportunities. All our struggles aside, give their defense credit for confusing us and keeping us off balance.

 

-He says more play action passes wouldn't have worked with the way the Jaguars were loading the box and showing heavy pressure looks. I've seen a lot of people criticize Dorsey for a low play action percentage in this game so I thought that was an interesting point.

 

-An alarming statistic he points out - the Jags missed just 3 tackles in this game. We missed 19 tackles... What else can you even say?

 

-Another alarming statistic - only 22% of our receiving yards in this game were YAC, by far the worst in the league for week 5. For context, Joe points out the 2nd lowest was the Ravens at 33%, and most offenses are in the 45%-50% or higher range. The Dolphins were at 78%. Our YAC issues from last year popped up big time in this game and it killed us. No run game and no YAC means literally our entire offense was dependent on Josh Allen's right arm, and that just isn't sustainable.

 

-A few points on defense - He says Elam wasn't quite as bad as he thought watching it live, but he definitely has some technical issues to clean up. Joe thinks the issues are fixable but he isn't at the level of Jackson or Benford right now. Dorian Williams had issues on misdirection plays and missed a couple tackles before McDermott benched him.

 

For a video breakdown of the offensive struggles, Cover1 just put this video out:

 

 

I think the play shown at 5:53 summarizes our issues in this game better than anything. You have 4 pass catchers all end up in the same area of the field so the timing of the play is awful and Allen has nowhere to go with the ball. He extends the play and throws a perfect pass to Knox who then drops it.

 

Way too many missed opportunities in this game. Pass protection, run blocking, situational play calling, skill position players, none of it was good enough.

 

I read the All-22 breakdown from Joe B who is returning after a parental leave.  
 

He basically said the similar things about the offense and that it came down to a lack of execution:

 

- First down drops from Cook, Knox and Davis.

- Allen under throwing Diggs on the INT

- Penalties and missed blocks etc.

 

The good news is that it did not seem that the offense was “figured out” by Jacksonville.   They played  good game with some timely calls on 3rd down, but it was more of an issue of the Bills not capitalizing when they should have….

 

[transplantbillsfan]

13 hours ago, 34-78-83 said:

Current cover1 analysis pointing out some of our blitzing that didn't quite get home, and also shows that some of both Elam and Dorian's play wasn't so bad. That's at least encouraging.

 

 

 

 

Yeah with all the film junkies coming out after the game I think I want Elam and Williams to continue to get their shot on the field, especially with our next 3 opponents.

 

This bit on Williams from Joe B is kinda encouraging:

 

https://theathletic.com/4953423/2023/10/11/buffalo-bills-film-review-jaguars-giants?source=user-shared-article

Dorian Williams should get the first chance to replace Milano

 

The Bills have some options at outside linebacker to replace the injured Matt Milano between rookie Dorian Williams, special teams asset Tyrel Dodson and the newly promoted veteran A.J. Klein. There will be some temptation to use Klein in that role because he has years of knowledge of Sean McDermott’s scheme and the trust of the head coach and defensive coordinator, but Klein should merely be a failsafe for later in the year. After all, the Bills moved on from him after the preseason for another veteran linebacker, which gives a window into their thought process.

 

Between Williams and Dodson, the film justifies a pretty easy decision to go with the rookie who has a bunch of untapped potential. Williams is a bit rough around the edges with some missed tackles and maybe a misread or two, but the way he flew around the field and made some plays on pure instinct should give some confidence in him moving forward, as should the abilities of linebackers coach Bobby Babich in getting the most out of his players. Dodson is a solid run defender, but the film showed far too many times where he overcommits as a run defender in the hopes to get a stop, and that can easily get taken advantage of by an opponent with play-action if Dodson is in the lineup. Williams will make some mistakes, but the ceiling is far higher with a Bernard-Williams combo than Bernard and Dodson, despite the inherent variance of playing a rookie. If anything the Bills should feel confident in how well their young players have performed early this season with the chance for a lot of playing time, and they should let that fuel their decision to allow Williams to fill in for Milano.

[CincyBillsFan]

On the Cowherd show Greg Cosell, whose opinions on QB play I respect greatly, said Allen played at a high end level and that as a #1 WR Diggs has to make the catch that turned into an INT.