MLB Jack Campbell #53 in the top 100 of The Athletic... is this our guy???

[mjt328]

This is why the Bills have seen their draft success drop off a cliff over the last 2-3 years.

It's always a huge mistake to go into a draft with a glaring positional need. 

 

Regardless of what people say, getting strong value in the draft is important.  It's what separates the good GMs from the great.

Jack Campbell may turn out to be a good NFL linebacker.  But almost everyone in the draft world has him valued as a mid/late 2nd Round Pick.

 

Even if Brandon Beane has a high grade on Campbell, he could probably trade back 5-10 spots (maybe more) and still get him.  And in the process, get himself another Day 2 pick or even a Day 1 next season.  Another free potential starter on a rookie contract, just because he is wisely playing the value game.  But if we absolutely MUST walk out of the 2023 draft with a starting Middle Linebacker, then Beane would be taking a big risk in trading back.  

 

[MrEpsYtown]

22 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

This is why the Bills have seen their draft success drop off a cliff over the last 2-3 years.

It's always a huge mistake to go into a draft with a glaring positional need. 

 

Regardless of what people say, getting strong value in the draft is important.  It's what separates the good GMs from the great.

Jack Campbell may turn out to be a good NFL linebacker.  But almost everyone in the draft world has him valued as a mid/late 2nd Round Pick.

 

Even if Brandon Beane has a high grade on Campbell, he could probably trade back 5-10 spots (maybe more) and still get him.  And in the process, get himself another Day 2 pick or even a Day 1 next season.  Another free potential starter on a rookie contract, just because he is wisely playing the value game.  But if we absolutely MUST walk out of the 2023 draft with a starting Middle Linebacker, then Beane would be taking a big risk in trading back.  

 

I suppose, the way I think about it is that Beane and McDermott really like some of the linebackers in the draft and because they like them so much, sat out MLB in free agency.
 

Campbell working with Kuechly is likely meaningful. I’m sure Campbell had met with teams, but zero reported visits or combine interviews are available online. There is no one else like him in the draft, and I think people are hiding their interest in him.

 

I also assume that they have known Simpson for a bit as he was a big time recruit from North Carolina…they probably knew of him, maybe even seen him play in high school. I guess it’s a bit of a leap, but I assume they love this player just based on their preferences in the past both here and in Carolina. 
 

So while it is a need, I think there is a method to their madness…the same way they sat out corner last year after they fell in love with Elam, they are sitting out MLB because they know who they want and probably have a good idea they can get him…likely a guy who the national media is projecting as a 2nd rounder, just like they did with Elam. Again, all my opinions, but that is how I look at the situation. 
 

 

Edited March 30, 2023 by MrEpsYtown

[Yantha]

16 hours ago, HurlyBurly51 said:

He has him #53, so stating the obvious seems a reach at 27.  Not sure how realistic it would be to get him in the 2nd, but that would be pretty sweet.

Hope to trade down to 35ish and take him...

 

Plus then we'd have more capital for OL and other needs.

[mjt328]

13 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I suppose, the way I think about it is that Beane and McDermott really like some of the linebackers in the draft and because they like them so much, sat out MLB in free agency.
 

Campbell working with Kuechly is likely meaningful. I’m sure Campbell had met with teams, but zero reported visits or combine interviews are available online. There is no one else like him in the draft, and I think people are hiding their interest in him.

 

I also assume that they have known Simpson for a bit as he was a big time recruit from North Carolina…they probably knew of him, maybe even seen him play in high school. I guess it’s a bit of a leap, but I assume they love this player just based on their preferences in the past both here and in Carolina. 
 

So while it is a need, I think there is a method to their madness…the same way they sat out corner last year after they fell in love with Elam, they are sitting out MLB because they know who they want and probably have a good idea they can get him…likely a guy who the national media is projecting as a 2nd rounder, just like they did with Elam. Again, all my opinions, but that is how I look at the situation. 
 

 

Again, my opinion on the situation has nothing to do with Campbell as a prospect.  It's all about value.

 

The main job of a GM is to fill the roster with talent.  Draft and sign starting caliber players.

Great GMs find ways to maximize and expand on their limited resources.

 

In free agency, Beane was able to wait out the Safety market.  He ended up getting Jordan Poyer AND Taylor Rapp combined for roughly HALF the cost someone like Jessie Bates signed for.  That is tremendous value.  Which is important, because we only have so much cap space.  

 

It works the same way in the draft.  After the early 4th Round, hitting on draft picks is very tough.  Finding ways to trade-down and nab another 2nd/3rd Round selection is huge.  Outside of drafting in the Top 10, you run into big problems when you "fall in love" with a certain player, or pigeon-hole yourself into needing a particular position.

 

[MrEpsYtown]

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

 

Again, my opinion on the situation has nothing to do with Campbell as a prospect.  It's all about value.

 

The main job of a GM is to fill the roster with talent.  Draft and sign starting caliber players.

Great GMs find ways to maximize and expand on their limited resources.

 

In free agency, Beane was able to wait out the Safety market.  He ended up getting Jordan Poyer AND Taylor Rapp combined for roughly HALF the cost someone like Jessie Bates signed for.  That is tremendous value.  Which is important, because we only have so much cap space.  

 

It works the same way in the draft.  After the early 4th Round, hitting on draft picks is very tough.  Finding ways to trade-down and nab another 2nd/3rd Round selection is huge.  Outside of drafting in the Top 10, you run into big problems when you "fall in love" with a certain player, or pigeon-hole yourself into needing a particular position.

 

Yep I got you. I just think they have kind of targeted who they want and they will pick that person in round 1. Not saying its a LB necessarily, but I think they already know who they want. It certainly seems like they already knew they wanted Elam last year after the combine. 
 

But I could see them trading out in round 2 like they did last year when they didn’t like what what they were seeing. That gets you some value. I do think it is tricky to talk about value without knowing what their board looks like. And while I do agree with you, I think it is pretty clear that these guys target specific players they like and try to go get them. Sometimes it works out like with Josh Allen, sometimes it backfires as we saw with Zay Jones, Cody Ford etc. 

 

Do you risk the player you really want just to recoup an extra 4th? Its hard to know what other teams will do. They wanted Big Ben years ago and scoffed at the asking price and and traded a first to wind up with JP Losman. 

Edited March 30, 2023 by MrEpsYtown

[nosejob]

2 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I suppose, the way I think about it is that Beane and McDermott really like some of the linebackers in the draft and because they like them so much, sat out MLB in free agency.
 

Campbell working with Kuechly is likely meaningful. I’m sure Campbell had met with teams, but zero reported visits or combine interviews are available online. There is no one else like him in the draft, and I think people are hiding their interest in him.

 

I also assume that they have known Simpson for a bit as he was a big time recruit from North Carolina…they probably knew of him, maybe even seen him play in high school. I guess it’s a bit of a leap, but I assume they love this player just based on their preferences in the past both here and in Carolina. 
 

So while it is a need, I think there is a method to their madness…the same way they sat out corner last year after they fell in love with Elam, they are sitting out MLB because they know who they want and probably have a good idea they can get him…likely a guy who the national media is projecting as a 2nd rounder, just like they did with Elam. Again, all my opinions, but that is how I look at the situation. 
 

 

This right here has me sold. He's gonna be the pick.

[Doc]

2 hours ago, mjt328 said:

Again, my opinion on the situation has nothing to do with Campbell as a prospect.  It's all about value.

 

The main job of a GM is to fill the roster with talent.  Draft and sign starting caliber players.

Great GMs find ways to maximize and expand on their limited resources.

 

In free agency, Beane was able to wait out the Safety market.  He ended up getting Jordan Poyer AND Taylor Rapp combined for roughly HALF the cost someone like Jessie Bates signed for.  That is tremendous value.  Which is important, because we only have so much cap space.  

 

It works the same way in the draft.  After the early 4th Round, hitting on draft picks is very tough.  Finding ways to trade-down and nab another 2nd/3rd Round selection is huge.  Outside of drafting in the Top 10, you run into big problems when you "fall in love" with a certain player, or pigeon-hole yourself into needing a particular position.

 

It doesn't work the same way.  In the draft a) there is an order for selecting players that another team can jump ahead in unexpectedly and take the player you want and b) the players are unknowns in the NFL.  In FA many teams have a shot at a player that has shown he can play in the NFL, but the player ultimately decides where he wants to go.

 

In this case, it's pretty well known that the Bills will want to draft a MLB somewhere, likely high because they lost their starter and want to get a high quality replacement.  The Steelers are looking to add a MLB as well.  Let's say the Bills have decided Campbell will be a stud.  They have the 27th pick and the Steelers' 2nd pick in the draft is at 32.  Is it worth losing Campbell and leaving you with possible a lesser quality player, all for at best a 3rd rounder?

[NastyNateSoldiers]

19 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

We all know the hole to fill. Yes it's possible the Edmunds replacement is on our roster, but c'mon... who really doesn't think we're adding an ILB???? 

 

Jack Campbell has been the buzz since the Combine. Yet, The Athletic just came out with their top 100. Here's what they said about him:

 

Campbell has excellent size to take on blocks in the box, and he’s more than willing to do so. An effective communicator pre-snap, Campbell plays with good awareness to discern play concepts and effectively play the run. He flashes the ability to stack and shed climbing offensive linemen while being a sound tackler.

 

But he will let the game come to him at times instead of being the aggressor. He is a good athlete, but it doesn’t always show because he plays in a controlled manner — there are times you wish he used his gifts more.

 

Campbell’s awareness does carry over against the pass. He is at his best in zone, where he can read the game, make plays on the ball and get into passing lanes. He’s also a fluid enough mover to hold his own in man.

Campbell has the size and athleticism to quickly adjust to the NFL. He doesn’t always play to his testing numbers, but if he becomes more comfortable, he has the ideal traits and play style to be a three-down linebacker.

 

I don't know about anyone else, but there were many parts of that report that absolutely screamed Buffalo.

 

It'd be amazing if we got him in the 2nd, but wouldn't be shocked if we took him in the 1st.

Sounds like Edmunds 2.0

[Beck Water]

10 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

Sounds like Edmunds 2.0

 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/tremaine-edmunds/32004544-4d00-0000-c30c-56fb5191e34f

 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/jack-campbell/32004341-4d36-4731-433d-b35acfc680bc

 

I don’t know; you be the judge

[Mynamemike]

4 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/tremaine-edmunds/32004544-4d00-0000-c30c-56fb5191e34f

 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/jack-campbell/32004341-4d36-4731-433d-b35acfc680bc

 

I don’t know; you be the judge

I think he’s our guy.  He’s plug and play day one.  I didn’t realize he tested so well at the combine.  

[MrEpsYtown]

28 minutes ago, Mynamemike said:

I think he’s our guy.  He’s plug and play day one.  I didn’t realize he tested so well at the combine.  

He had the sixth highest RAS for a linebacker all time. And yet people are still saying “he looks slow.” Silly. 

[starrymessenger]

13 minutes ago, Mynamemike said:

I think he’s our guy.  He’s plug and play day one.  I didn’t realize he tested so well at the combine.  

He's a much better athlete than often given credit for. But it's not just his athleticism and skill set. We often see players who are more athlete than football player, even if they are also good football players. Like Milano this guy is 100% a football player. His leadership qualities/intangibles are also off the charts.  
There are a number of players in this draft who are pretty much ideal for the positions they play, like the OSU slot receiver, and who will contribute to their teams right away and for a long time. Jack Campbell is one of them imo. Taking him at 27 is by no means a reach. 
There will no doubt be good players on the Board when we pick and that I would be happy with but Campbell is pretty high on the list of those likely to still be available.

 

[Bookie Man]

 

I really don't see it with this guy. Play recognition looks like it's lacking and can't shed a block. Cool LB name and good measurables. 

Not an impact player. I know he'll get drafted way earlier, but seems more like a 3rd round pick imho. 

[starrymessenger]

1 hour ago, ßookie_tech said:

 

I really don't see it with this guy. Play recognition looks like it's lacking and can't shed a block. Cool LB name and good measurables. 

Not an impact player. I know he'll get drafted way earlier, but seems more like a 3rd round pick imho. 

I think his spot is late first early second. I'd be chuffed if the Bills could land him in the third but that is not happening. Could well be that McD prefers Simpson anyway. 
The two games you viewed were not his best. He missed a couple of tackles and the O-linemen got a few good blocks on him. Only thing I'd say by way of caution is that not all game action is highlight material. I remember checking out a T A&M game tape like 12 years ago (against Missou I think) to look at a highly touted prospect LB/DE. The guy hardly did anything so I came away thinking he reminded me of Aaron Maybin, except that his name was Von. 

 

[LEBills]

5 hours ago, ßookie_tech said:

 

I really don't see it with this guy. Play recognition looks like it's lacking and can't shed a block. Cool LB name and good measurables. 

Not an impact player. I know he'll get drafted way earlier, but seems more like a 3rd round pick imho. 

This is how I feel. He is a good player and a good athlete there is no doubt, but I see a player that knows the role he should be playing and gets to that spot. Maybe with coaching he could maximize his skills and be a Fred Warner that can cover players one on one but I don’t think he is that fluid despite what the testing says. I don’t see the violence of a Shaq Leonard when he hits and he doesn’t have quite the wingspan of Leonard (79 vs 82 inches).

 

The comp that gets thrown around is Kuechley because of McDermott. But I really don’t see a player that caliber. I know the testing is similar but I remember watching Kuechley at BC and players just did not outrun him. Campbell is pretty fast but players can get out wide of him and he doesn’t have the closing burst to meet them. Also Kuechley is still the second all time tackle leader in college history over 10 years ago and that was with 3 years starting. He was incredible. Campbell is good.

 

The biggest problem is what you are missing out on other talent to fill this spot. At the end of the first you are going to have OT and WR that could immediately impact the offense. OT has some depth into round two but from what I have watched of prospects it degrades after Bergeron (who is going to go higher than people expect), Harrison and Freeland. WR I think you miss out at the end of round one and you are either trading up or waiting till day 3 because the most talented will be gone pretty early like what happened last year.

 

so in essence I like Campbell the player, just not that much and would rather wait till round 2 or 3 to draft a MLB to compete with what we have. But Beane does draft for need in round 1 so we will see. 

 

 

[Coach Tuesday]

He looks like Poz in those clips.  Not a first round pick.  High floor but lower ceiling.

[GunnerBill]

11 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

He had the sixth highest RAS for a linebacker all time. And yet people are still saying “he looks slow.” Silly. 

 

I don't think he plays as fast as he tests. I confess I was surprised by his testing scores. I don't think he is "slow" but I think the testing scores don't quite match the eye test. 

1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

He looks like Poz in those clips.  Not a first round pick.  High floor but lower ceiling.

 

That is my feeling too. I think Jack Campbell is going to be a good NFL linebacker. I think he is probably the surest bet of the top 3 linebackers, but Sanders and Simpson have higher ceilings IMO. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, LEBills said:

This is how I feel. He is a good player and a good athlete there is no doubt, but I see a player that knows the role he should be playing and gets to that spot. Maybe with coaching he could maximize his skills and be a Fred Warner that can cover players one on one but I don’t think he is that fluid despite what the testing says. I don’t see the violence of a Shaq Leonard when he hits and he doesn’t have quite the wingspan of Leonard (79 vs 82 inches).

 

The comp that gets thrown around is Kuechley because of McDermott. But I really don’t see a player that caliber. I know the testing is similar but I remember watching Kuechley at BC and players just did not outrun him. Campbell is pretty fast but players can get out wide of him and he doesn’t have the closing burst to meet them. Also Kuechley is still the second all time tackle leader in college history over 10 years ago and that was with 3 years starting. He was incredible. Campbell is good.

 

The biggest problem is what you are missing out on other talent to fill this spot. At the end of the first you are going to have OT and WR that could immediately impact the offense. OT has some depth into round two but from what I have watched of prospects it degrades after Bergeron (who is going to go higher than people expect), Harrison and Freeland. WR I think you miss out at the end of round one and you are either trading up or waiting till day 3 because the most talented will be gone pretty early like what happened last year.

 

so in essence I like Campbell the player, just not that much and would rather wait till round 2 or 3 to draft a MLB to compete with what we have. But Beane does draft for need in round 1 so we will see. 

 

 

Other than "Freeland" I'm lukewarm on him and wouldn't take him in round 2 I agree with every other word of this post and I commend it to the board!!

[MrEpsYtown]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think he plays as fast as he tests. I confess I was surprised by his testing scores. I don't think he is "slow" but I think the testing scores don't quite match the eye test. 

 

That is my feeling too. I think Jack Campbell is going to be a good NFL linebacker. I think he is probably the surest bet of the top 3 linebackers, but Sanders and Simpson have higher ceilings IMO. 

 

My gut says Simpson is their guy. 

 

To me, Campbell just doesn't play like his hair is on fire, he is methodical in his movements...really the anti-Tremaine. But there are times in games, like the Michigan game this year where you see that closing speed. Or that Kentucky bowl game that he could have sat out but played and crushed it. That Kentucky game in those clips is from his junior year, so I don't put a ton of stock in it. 

[LEBills]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Other than "Freeland" I'm lukewarm on him and wouldn't take him in round 2 I agree with every other word of this post and I commend it to the board!!

I had passed over Freeland because I didn’t think he did well at the Senior Bowl. Of course he blew up the Combine so I had to go back. I think he is going to be a second round pick because of his athletic upside tho I think he is behind Bergeron and Harrison as a talent. 
 

Rewatching him with the BYU OLine I thought he showed enough to project as an eventual starting tackle. He actually reminds me of Spencer Brown. He is quick so he is able to wall off defenders in the run game and he is able to get to them on the second level easily. Not as good at pass protection but he is certainly fast on his feet and does a good job keeping tied to his guard to mitigate the inside rush that gets him a bit. But I agree overall, I would be disappointed if he was out OT solution.