ROCKPILE REVIEW - Bengals and 2022 Wrap-Up

[Shaw66]

6 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

They know something for sure….just not enough. 

You're tough to please!

[SoCal Deek]

Just now, Shaw66 said:

You're tough to please!

That’s for sure! 😉

Go Bills

[BearNorth]

Great writeup as always

 

FWIW, I took a look at the lineups between the 13-3 1990 team that lost in the SB and the 13-3 2022 team

 

Thomas 1990 > Singletary

Reed 1990 > McKenzie

Hull 1990 > Morse

Ballard 1990 > Brown

Bruce Smith 1990 > Rousseau

Talley 1990 > Oliver [3-4 vs. 4-2-5]

Odomes 1990 > Dane Jackson

Ritcher 1990 > Saffold

 

Beebe 1990 = Gabe Davis

Kelly 1990 = Allen

Lofton 1990 = Diggs

Wolford 1990 = Dawkins

John Davis 1990 = Bates

Biscuit 1990 = Milano

Conlan 1990 = Edmunds

Leonard Smith 1990 = Poyer

Ray Bentley 1990 = Taron Johnson [3-4 vs. 4-2-5]

 

Knox 2022 > McKeller

Von Miller 2022 > Seals

Daquan 2022 > Wright

Tre White 2022 > Kirby Jackson [assuming fully healthy]

Hyde 2022 > Kelso [assuming fully healthy]

 

From this flyover, the 1990 roster had more starting talent that this year's version. 

 

Josh Allen would kill for some of those linemen, Wolford, Richter, Hull, Ballard.

 

This year's roster had the loss of Von Miller and Hyde, and the limited play of Tre White.

 

Obviously Bruce is a huge difference maker, and Reed light years ahead of McKenzie.

 

HOF in Bold

 

Edited February 3, 2023 by BearNorth

[4th&long]

4 hours ago, Haslett_Stomp said:

McDermott realized Dennison wasn't working as OC after his first season and brought in Dabol, which makes his hesitancy to move on from Frazier puzzling.

Not puzzling at all. Fraizer is running macdermott’s defense. To get rid of Fraizer macdermott would need to go.

[HomeTeam]

22 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm not.  He's already better than Newton ever was.  

 

And he's already won more playoff games.  

Oh I did not mean it like a player comp, he's clearly already better than Cam was. I meant it as in longevity. Cam got hit so many times that towards the end of his career, he completely fell off. I want Josh to have a 20 year career with us. 

[Shaw66]

11 hours ago, HomeTeam said:

Oh I did not mean it like a player comp, he's clearly already better than Cam was. I meant it as in longevity. Cam got hit so many times that towards the end of his career, he completely fell off. I want Josh to have a 20 year career with us. 

Ah, I misunderstood.  

 

I'm actually not too concerned about Josh's longevity.  I've thought for a long time that he's most like Elway and Roethlisberger, Elway particularly.   Cam had an arm to match those other guys, but he wasn't and never became a true pocket passer and field general.  Allen will run less as the years add up, just as Elway ran less, but he'll remain a threat to take off once in a while.   He'll move in the pocket and be tough to take down like Roethlisberger.   He will, like all the really good QBs, get better and better at seeing the field and making decisions.  In the end, even if he becomes as immobile as Peyton, he'll be a brain attached to an arm - give him decent protection and some receiving threats and he'll still be a threat to take a team to the Super Bowl.  

[Dr. K]

Well said. In particular this:

 

"For now, however, I think less than I used to about what went wrong and what needs to be fixed than in past years.  I have developed a healthy respect for all of the things I don’t know about football, and I no longer can pretend that I see that one thing the Bills need to fix to get over the top.  If it were easy enough for a guy sitting in his family room to figure that out, someone in Orchard Park would have done it already. "

 

I've been avoiding this forum since the Cincy game because so many of the commenters here do not agree with this, and to read the angry back-and-forth that arises from those who are absolutely sure that they know who is to blame and how to fix it just wears me out. 

Thanks for posting this, and for your other comments throughout the season. Go Bills!

[Billsfan1972]

3 hours ago, Dr. K said:

Well said. In particular this:

 

"For now, however, I think less than I used to about what went wrong and what needs to be fixed than in past years.  I have developed a healthy respect for all of the things I don’t know about football, and I no longer can pretend that I see that one thing the Bills need to fix to get over the top.  If it were easy enough for a guy sitting in his family room to figure that out, someone in Orchard Park would have done it already. "

 

I've been avoiding this forum since the Cincy game because so many of the commenters here do not agree with this, and to read the angry back-and-forth that arises from those who are absolutely sure that they know who is to blame and how to fix it just wears me out. 

Thanks for posting this, and for your other comments throughout the season. Go Bills!

Why?   Because those who were concerned from the bye week on actually may have had a point? This is what bothers me I wish we could go back to all those posts worried about what was happening with the Bills and how they were shouted down and it seems a lot of those people disappeared and no longer are part of the debate.

 

I 100% wanted to be here this week talking about the Super Bowl and how the Bills were going to beat the Eagles. And I can promise you98% of those on the site want to be doing the same thing.

[Dr. K]

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Why?   Because those who were concerned from the bye week on actually may have had a point? This is what bothers me I wish we could go back to all those posts worried about what was happening with the Bills and how they were shouted down and it seems a lot of those people disappeared and no longer are part of the debate.

 

I 100% wanted to be here this week talking about the Super Bowl and how the Bills were going to beat the Eagles. And I can promise you98% of those on the site want to be doing the same thing.

You do you. Go for it. I'm not stopping you. 

[Ayjent]

On 2/1/2023 at 5:21 PM, Dubie54 said:

I enjoyed your write up and felt you covered all of the key points to our season very well.

 

Maybe it's just me, but it seems there are plenty out there who are very frustrated with what we have seen out of this defense. And for me, it all goes back to the 13 seconds and the fact that the Bills org seemed to dodge the whole accountability question.

 

We continued to see very similar "soft" schemes this past year and plenty of instances in the Bengals game. When you look at the 4 teams that played this past weekend, I would argue they all looked and played much more aggressively on defense than what we saw from the Bills at the end of the season, and all use the blitz very effectively. I would argue that we have the personnel but we're not putting them in positions to be as successful as they could be and that goes for the offensive side of the ball with players like Hines and Shakir, and not being able to effectively run screens. 

 

The Damar Hamlin injury had to be a distraction for the Bills and probably did take some of the energy out of the locker room. But I also don't put a lot of stock in what Saffold says because he hasn't shown much energy the entire season.

 

   

This is the thing that I just can’t accept but will likely have to:  the team with the biggest defensive investment, the defensive background HC and a constant HC candidate as DC was the softest least impressive defense in maybe the entire playoff field (at least bottom quartile).  Every team has injuries and that is why coaching matters from scheming to your available personnel’s strengths and player development.  The Bills seem to be falling short there - is it the organization’s inability to identify talent? is its inability to develop it that is the issue with a poor ROI on the DL? or is it what the players are asked to do that isn’t working out scheme wise?  It’s probably some combination of all of those things but they are things that have to be true in one respect or the other.  The defense is a paper tiger and we all know stats can be misleading because it’s how you play when it matters.  Philosophically the Bills are simplistic on D and that makes it easy for good teams to attack and when the Bills don’t adjust the scheme with back ups the results are predictably going to be worse.  That’s the story of playoffs this year and last was a different story but failed because of the same philosophy.  They just had better players available and an offense hitting on all cylinders to give them a shot to win last year.

 

I honestly think Frazier’s -layoff performances have closed the door on him getting another HC opportunity and I think the Bills would be very wise to move on and consider going in a different direction for the good of the team. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. The scheme Frazier runs is not going to be much different results wise with uber talented players and mediocre players.  It’s a great defense for mediocre talent vs mediocre opposition.  It’s just not effective unless your front 4 are just wrecking balls and the Bills DL are not wrecking balls. 

[Nihilarian]

I honestly can't stand this bend but don't break defense. But, what was the guy supposed to do against a top flight offense with little or no pass rush...no matter how much you rotate the players. The secondary was also weak without Hyde and so many subs in at CB, safety. Starting a rookie CB and an injured Safety in Poyer.  Injuries and inexperience killed this defense this season...and coaching.

 

Who would have thought that ken Dorsey would end up running the ball less than Daboll...who some of us were complaining in previous years that he didn't run enough and change was needed. 

 

 I just don't get why any OC who sees that his QB isn't getting it done at the time refuses to change things up to help out the QB. It's like Daboll never left and we saw the 2018 version all over again.  Only 19 rushes for 64 yards against Cincy and Josh had 8 of those. So, the Bills RBs saw 11 rush attempts all game. Singletary was getting 2.5 yards before contact and Cook 1.6...which means the Buffalo O line was getting owned. Still, end arounds, misdirection, screens, toss sweeps to make those D linemen run sideline to sideline to wear them out. Just keep throwing, just keep throwing...and keep the pressure on the QB.

[Shaw66]

4 hours ago, Ayjent said:

This is the thing that I just can’t accept but will likely have to:  the team with the biggest defensive investment, the defensive background HC and a constant HC candidate as DC was the softest least impressive defense in maybe the entire playoff field (at least bottom quartile).  Every team has injuries and that is why coaching matters from scheming to your available personnel’s strengths and player development.  The Bills seem to be falling short there - is it the organization’s inability to identify talent? is its inability to develop it that is the issue with a poor ROI on the DL? or is it what the players are asked to do that isn’t working out scheme wise?  It’s probably some combination of all of those things but they are things that have to be true in one respect or the other.  The defense is a paper tiger and we all know stats can be misleading because it’s how you play when it matters.  Philosophically the Bills are simplistic on D and that makes it easy for good teams to attack and when the Bills don’t adjust the scheme with back ups the results are predictably going to be worse.  That’s the story of playoffs this year and last was a different story but failed because of the same philosophy.  They just had better players available and an offense hitting on all cylinders to give them a shot to win last year.

 

I honestly think Frazier’s -layoff performances have closed the door on him getting another HC opportunity and I think the Bills would be very wise to move on and consider going in a different direction for the good of the team. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. The scheme Frazier runs is not going to be much different results wise with uber talented players and mediocre players.  It’s a great defense for mediocre talent vs mediocre opposition.  It’s just not effective unless your front 4 are just wrecking balls and the Bills DL are not wrecking balls. 

Several thoughts about this.  First, I was hoping Frazier would get a HC job last season.   I've always thought he's too passive.  

 

Second, however, I think that you're mischaracterizing the defense in several ways.   Yes, they spent money on the defense, but they spent it to make it be more and more like the kind of defense that McDermott wants: a defense that can survive playing all different styles:  playing man, playing zone, stopping the run, etc.  It's more important to McDermott that his defense do everything reasonably well than it is that the defense is feared for being the most aggressive in one or another way.   He wants eleven tough-minded, versatile  athletes running around out there, making plays.  Now, all kinds of people on this board will argue that that's the wrong style of defense, because you get what we've seen - a defense that is statistically excellent and wins a lot of games in the regular season, but that can't deal with the really high-powered, offenses that they face in the playoffs.  It's like he has a defense that would be the best defense in flag football but not tackle football.   I get that argument, and I agree with it and I can at least speculate why McDermott prefers that, but that's not the point.  The point is that if you really think that style will never win a Super Bowl, then there's only one answer:  Move on from McDermott.   My own answer to that, which plenty of people disagree with, is that it's very unlikely you'll get as good a coach to replace him, and you're better off having a coach who repeatedly gets you close and may, over time, actually win the whole thing. 

 

Third, if I were McDermott, I'd replace Frazier with someone who can run McD's defense, but with more fire.  I'd replace whoever the D line coach with someone who will impress on those guys that they have to WIN their battles on the line, and if they don't they'll be replaced.  Lots of guys can occupy space on the Dline.  McD's defense requires guys who can win. 

 

Fourth, I don't think it's about "figuring out" McD's defense.   Every team's defense gets figured out.   What's good about McD's defense, or what's supposed to be good about it, is what's good about Belichick's defense, which is that as team begin attacking the parts of the field that you don't defend well, you can tweak things so that you can defend that part of the field better, so that you players, in more or less the same defense, can recognize when teams are lined up to attack that weak spot and know how to cover it.  When it works well, which it did with Poyer and Hyde, you'd never see Jamar Chase wide open in the middle like he was in the playoffs.  Never.  But when you're playing Elam and Marlowe and Jaquan Johnson, they haven't yet learned it, or they can't.  That is, I don't think McDermott's scheme is the problem.   I think who they have on the field and how aggressively they play it is the problem.  

 

Thanks for posting.  

 

 

[jkeerie]

On 2/3/2023 at 10:53 AM, Dr. K said:

Well said. In particular this:

 

"For now, however, I think less than I used to about what went wrong and what needs to be fixed than in past years.  I have developed a healthy respect for all of the things I don’t know about football, and I no longer can pretend that I see that one thing the Bills need to fix to get over the top.  If it were easy enough for a guy sitting in his family room to figure that out, someone in Orchard Park would have done it already. "

 

I've been avoiding this forum since the Cincy game because so many of the commenters here do not agree with this, and to read the angry back-and-forth that arises from those who are absolutely sure that they know who is to blame and how to fix it just wears me out. 

Thanks for posting this, and for your other comments throughout the season. Go Bills!

That's just it.  They don't know how to fix it?  The only thing they know how to do is point fingers, eliminate those who they see at fault, and replace them with someone else.  They guarantee that whoever is brought in will lead us to the SB in no time flat.  However, they cannot tell you who these guaranteed winners are.  Change for change-sake isn't always the wise move.  You may end up better, but you could just as easily end up much worse.  

[Ayjent]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Several thoughts about this.  First, I was hoping Frazier would get a HC job last season.   I've always thought he's too passive.  

 

Second, however, I think that you're mischaracterizing the defense in several ways.   Yes, they spent money on the defense, but they spent it to make it be more and more like the kind of defense that McDermott wants: a defense that can survive playing all different styles:  playing man, playing zone, stopping the run, etc.  It's more important to McDermott that his defense do everything reasonably well than it is that the defense is feared for being the most aggressive in one or another way.   He wants eleven tough-minded, versatile  athletes running around out there, making plays.  Now, all kinds of people on this board will argue that that's the wrong style of defense, because you get what we've seen - a defense that is statistically excellent and wins a lot of games in the regular season, but that can't deal with the really high-powered, offenses that they face in the playoffs.  It's like he has a defense that would be the best defense in flag football but not tackle football.   I get that argument, and I agree with it and I can at least speculate why McDermott prefers that, but that's not the point.  The point is that if you really think that style will never win a Super Bowl, then there's only one answer:  Move on from McDermott.   My own answer to that, which plenty of people disagree with, is that it's very unlikely you'll get as good a coach to replace him, and you're better off having a coach who repeatedly gets you close and may, over time, actually win the whole thing. 

 

Third, if I were McDermott, I'd replace Frazier with someone who can run McD's defense, but with more fire.  I'd replace whoever the D line coach with someone who will impress on those guys that they have to WIN their battles on the line, and if they don't they'll be replaced.  Lots of guys can occupy space on the Dline.  McD's defense requires guys who can win. 

 

Fourth, I don't think it's about "figuring out" McD's defense.   Every team's defense gets figured out.   What's good about McD's defense, or what's supposed to be good about it, is what's good about Belichick's defense, which is that as team begin attacking the parts of the field that you don't defend well, you can tweak things so that you can defend that part of the field better, so that you players, in more or less the same defense, can recognize when teams are lined up to attack that weak spot and know how to cover it.  When it works well, which it did with Poyer and Hyde, you'd never see Jamar Chase wide open in the middle like he was in the playoffs.  Never.  But when you're playing Elam and Marlowe and Jaquan Johnson, they haven't yet learned it, or they can't.  That is, I don't think McDermott's scheme is the problem.   I think who they have on the field and how aggressively they play it is the problem.  

 

Thanks for posting.  

 

 

I like McDermott and don’t want to move on from him but I do want to see them adjust and learn from what has made them vulnerable on both sides of the ball, and invest where it will make the biggest impact on their ability to win a.  I understand what you like about the defensive philosophy of how they’ve built the team but the reality is that the team on D doesn’t impose its will at any level and is particularly susceptible against physical teams and inclement conditions neutralizing them.  It’s easy to beat the Bills D with talent and you needn’t be spectacular either, just have a rhythm passing game and it’s there more times than not, and if you have a running game to go with it, then it’s up to Josh and the offense to come through with more urgency in each possession.  It’s what we saw the second half of the season, the Bills got the wins but none was particularly comfortable outside of an atrocious Bears team. 
 

I don’t even see the D play that multiple because when push comes to shove they play soft coverage and give too much respect to QBs that can get the ball out on time and on target trying to keep everything in front of them.  They give yards.  They give completions. They give you heartburn on 3rd down. Statistically it works out but that doesn’t mean it’s good nor dominant in any way. They really only play a front 6 and they can be dominated at the LOS.  I get that it’s a passing league but the DL is not impactful in rushing the QB and yeah Von Miller going on IR hurt them but you’ve got to be better than one guy.  The guys they have aren’t physical nor dominant enough to rush the QB even if they can run sideline to sideline to make tackles beyond the LOS. Pressure and penetration up front makes everything easier and they simply aren’t making that happen no matter what and soft coverage and passive schemes aren’t helping the pass rush either.
 

They spent tons of salary and capital on their D and it’s not really that much more effective than year 1 under McD (other  than at LB) and the offense is not talented enough as a result of over-investment in the D.  I don’t know why they have not invested more in the OL to protect their franchise player and to impose a running game when Buffalo weather dictates they take a game over.  I think skill players are a luxury that is not a wise investment if you don’t have the essentials (OL) and I think the Bills have enough talent, but not great talent beyond Diggs and Allen, on offense.  They can be so much better on that side and they are already good, but defenses definitely figured something out with hemming Josh in so that he doesn’t escape moving up in the pocket and that neutralized the offense more and more as the late season progressed.  I also think Josh was bearing more and more of burden of carrying the team and there was no confidence in his OL as he was looking to keep himself in position where he could get out of trouble bc he was expecting it. 

[Bob in STL]

On 2/1/2023 at 12:34 PM, Shaw66 said:

 

As the Bills lost to the Bengals in the AFC Divisional Round, I wasn’t ready to step off the ledge.  I hoped they’d win, but I expected they wouldn’t.  I hoped a truly competitive playoff team would emerge in January, but I hadn’t seen much evidence of that kind of dominance in December.  It wasn’t their year.

 

I guess I’ve mellowed.  Worst case, I’m losing interest, but I don’t think that’s the case.  I had tickets and a hotel in Atlanta, and I had a hotel and a rental car in Arizona.  I was interested.

 

For now, however, I think less than I used to about what went wrong and what needs to be fixed than in past years.  I have developed a healthy respect for all of the things I don’t know about football, and I no longer can pretend that I see that one thing the Bills need to fix to get over the top.  If it were easy enough for a guy sitting in his family room to figure that out, someone in Orchard Park would have done it already. 

 

What it takes to win a Super Bowl is a complex, almost unknowable combination of factors, many of which are completely or largely outside the control the General Manager and the coaches.  The extreme example was the COVID pandemic season, when the rules that governed practice, travel, and schedule all changed and kept changing throughout the season.  Teams had to figure out on the fly how to accomplish the training and preparation necessary to play the game at a high level under circumstances they’d never seen before.  Even short of that extreme, the variables are constantly changing, and each team is challenged to respond.  Coaches keep experimenting with approaches to offense, trying to find ways to move the ball consistently and score, and as they do, defensive coaches adjust their approach to defense.  What works changes from year to year, even from month to month.  Players come and go, with a quarter to a third of the players on the roster changing annually, and as the players change, the things the team can do effectively on the field change.  The process, from April through February, is like 75 people trying to complete a giant jigsaw puzzle while the picture being built is changing before their eyes. 

 

In that kind of environment, just getting to the point where your team is one of the half dozen that have gotten good enough to compete in the playoffs is a major accomplishment.  The winner will be the team that can keep growing and building a team that can play at increasing levels of physicality. 

 

The winners also invariably talk about how the team is a family, how much they care for each other.  Some people think it’s a cliché, but it’s said so regularly that I’m sure it’s true.  The winners must come together, not just physically and technically, but emotionally, as well. 

 

It is amazingly difficult and unpredictable, and every year the winning players and coaches are justifiably proud of what they’ve accomplished.  And there’s no shame in falling short.

 

The Bills fell short.  I think the emotional roller coaster of the Bills’ 2022 season was too much to overcome.  That is, it simply couldn’t be expected that they could accomplish all of the technical things – the training, the study, the learning, the teamwork, the offense and defense growth and development, the insertion of inexperienced players, like Hamlin, Jaquon Johnson, and others into the lineup – all of that and more, while struggling with the extraordinary events of the 2022 season.  The Bills were central to or lived through three national news stories:  the Topps murders, the blizzard, and Damar Hamlin.  Those events were, at the least, big distractions, and more likely difficult and draining once-in-a-lifetime emotional challenges.  And they lived through Kim Pegula’s health issues and the death of Dawson Knox’s brother. 

 

On field, what went wrong?  Plenty, I’m sure.  Josh Allen didn’t have an MVP season.  Teams figured out how to slow down the Bills’ offense and how to attack their defense, and the coaches didn’t implement strategies and tactics to counter what opponents were doing.  Losing Micah Hyde for almost the entire season was a major blow; he more than anyone else is key to the Bills’ defensive scheme.  Losing Von Miller for the late-season and playoff run hurt the pass rush, as did the failure of Greg Rousseau, Ed Oliver, and others to develop as defensive threats on their own.  The offensive line was not nearly effective enough. 

 

If I had to point to one factor in the Bills’ playoff loss to the Bengals, I’d say “pass rush.”  The real difference in the game was that Joe Burrows regularly had time to throw, and Josh Allen didn’t.  One play stands out for me: I believe it was Allen’s incomplete pass deep to Diggs up the left side on third and four, the Bills’ first possession of the game.   Allen was flushed out of the pocket to the right, found Diggs, and threw.  Diggs was open, but Allen threw the flat deep ball that we saw a lot from him in his early years.  He had plenty of room to throw to open space toward the middle of the field, and Diggs could easily have adjusted to get there.  The right throw would have been completed for a big gain or possibly a touchdown.  Allen didn’t have time, and when QBs don’t have time they rush their throws. 

 

Under Sean McDermott, the Bills are enjoying great success.  There is no reason to complain about him or his abilities, not yet.  Ten, thirteen, eleven, and thirteen wins in the past four seasons, four and five in the playoffs.  Andy Reid won his first conference championship game in his sixth year and didn’t win another one until more than ten years later.  Zac Taylor has already lost a Super Bowl and a Conference Championship game.  Sean McVay is looking more lucky than good.  Kyle Shanahan doesn’t have a Lombardi.  

 

The sports news media, particularly one Associated Press article after the Bengals game, made a big deal about the Bills going “all in” to win the Super Bowl this season.  That’s simply wrong.  Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott have always been very clear that their objective is sustained, long-term success.  The Rams went went “all in” last season, trading for Von Miller in his free agent season, signing Odell Beckham, and it paid off for them.  Then they collapsed.  The Bills signed Miller to a six-year deal, with the likelihood that he’ll play at least three.  The Bills made no short-term plays to win it all this season. 

 

The Bills have become a dominant team in the NFL, a team that should be in the mix to win the Super Bowl for years to come.  It didn’t happen in the 2022 season, and that’s disappointing, but it’s easy to see that things simply didn’t fall together the right way this season.  Now, they’re in the process of building for next season.

The sentences in bold that start your post say it all for me.  It is as if you asked me, and wrote what I am feeling.  

 

No surprise a couple of vets from the mid 60's would think the same on some things.  

 

 

Edited February 4, 2023 by Bob in STL

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Ayjent said:

I like McDermott and don’t want to move on from him but I do want to see them adjust and learn from what has made them vulnerable on both sides of the ball, and invest where it will make the biggest impact on their ability to win a.  I understand what you like about the defensive philosophy of how they’ve built the team but the reality is that the team on D doesn’t impose its will at any level and is particularly susceptible against physical teams and inclement conditions neutralizing them.  It’s easy to beat the Bills D with talent and you needn’t be spectacular either, just have a rhythm passing game and it’s there more times than not, and if you have a running game to go with it, then it’s up to Josh and the offense to come through with more urgency in each possession.  It’s what we saw the second half of the season, the Bills got the wins but none was particularly comfortable outside of an atrocious Bears team. 
 

I don’t even see the D play that multiple because when push comes to shove they play soft coverage and give too much respect to QBs that can get the ball out on time and on target trying to keep everything in front of them.  They give yards.  They give completions. They give you heartburn on 3rd down. Statistically it works out but that doesn’t mean it’s good nor dominant in any way. They really only play a front 6 and they can be dominated at the LOS.  I get that it’s a passing league but the DL is not impactful in rushing the QB and yeah Von Miller going on IR hurt them but you’ve got to be better than one guy.  The guys they have aren’t physical nor dominant enough to rush the QB even if they can run sideline to sideline to make tackles beyond the LOS. Pressure and penetration up front makes everything easier and they simply aren’t making that happen no matter what and soft coverage and passive schemes aren’t helping the pass rush either.
 

They spent tons of salary and capital on their D and it’s not really that much more effective than year 1 under McD (other  than at LB) and the offense is not talented enough as a result of over-investment in the D.  I don’t know why they have not invested more in the OL to protect their franchise player and to impose a running game when Buffalo weather dictates they take a game over.  I think skill players are a luxury that is not a wise investment if you don’t have the essentials (OL) and I think the Bills have enough talent, but not great talent beyond Diggs and Allen, on offense.  They can be so much better on that side and they are already good, but defenses definitely figured something out with hemming Josh in so that he doesn’t escape moving up in the pocket and that neutralized the offense more and more as the late season progressed.  I also think Josh was bearing more and more of burden of carrying the team and there was no confidence in his OL as he was looking to keep himself in position where he could get out of trouble bc he was expecting it. 

Ayjent -

 

Great stuff, as always.  Thanks.  I really like the first paragraph.   "Imposing its will" is the key and as you say, that's what's lacking in the playoffs.  Well, missing this year.   I thought the Bills were more than tough enough against the Chiefs last year - there were other problems.   And I agree that down the stretch of the regular season, they didn't have it.  But just like against the Chiefs, the previous season that wasn't a problem.   Going into the playoffs in the 2021 season, they were the team no one wanted to play.  So, I think the things you're commenting on, although perhaps being somewhat true in early seasons, really are phenomena that troubled the Bills this season.   And as I've said, I think their inability to pull things together this season were the result of a lot of different things, in some cases unique things, that the Bills just couldn't overcome.  

 

I agree about your analysis of the defensive line, and I've said here myself.  They need some guys who WIN; instead, they seem to be loaded with guys who read and react, particularly Rousseau.   He really needs to crank up his intensity.   I never paid much attention to Von Miller before this season, but he knows how to play the position.   Not every play, not by a long shot, but every once in a while on the snap he absolutely explodes on the OT and knocks him off balance, then creates from there.   Doing that once every ten plays or whatever puts the blocker on the defensive, and it allows Miller the opportunity to attack all the other way he attacks.   Rousseau needs to do that to - instead, everyone knows he's just going to come across the line and look to see what's happening.  

 

Did they play too much soft coverage this season?  Looked like it.   

 

The thing about all of this, from my point of view, is that McDermott is smart and determined, more than any people we tend to meet in our day-to-day lives.  He works and studies all the time.   He knows the coverage was too soft.  He knows the pass rush didn't work.  He knows the defense didn't impose its will.   He sees all of that stuff and hundreds of other things, and he know what he wants to do about it.  Frankly, I think if you asked him about the soft coverage, he'd tell you exactly why they played that way, and he probably has to do with having substandard safety play late in the season, White being off his pre-injury game, and Jackson and Elam being vulnerable.  I don't know that, but isn't that the kind of reason that you would expect a smart guy like McDermott to have for playing a defense that he knows was not aggressive enough?   Especially, when he's playing a quality QB like Burrows and he knows that none of his defensive linemen are going to get home, he's not going to play press coverage if he doesn't trust his corners or safeties.  

 

Whatever the answers are, McDermott has literally made it his life to learn them.   He knows if Frazier is a problem.  He knows if Dorsey is a problem or just needed to get a year under his belt.   He knows where his personnel is weak, and he's told Beane.   

 

None of which is to say that he'll figure it out.   I'm haunted by memories of George Allen, who has absolutely glorified by the press has a determined, detail-oriented coach who would lead Washington to the Super Bowl and more, and he couldn't do it.   Just being like McDermott isn't necessarily enough.  But, as I also said before, there is nothing that any of us sees that he doesn't see, he knows which things he needs to fix, and he almost certainly knows better than any of us how to fix it.   So, like you, I'm not replacing him any time soon.

[Buddo]

I think we missed Hyde an awful lot more than we maybe give credit for.

 

With both Poyer and Hyde in the backfiled, we get the secondary organised. Between them, they make sure that group knows exactly what they are supposed to be doing.

 

The other aspect with both of them on the field, is that it gives more freedom for guys ahead of them to try and make a play, as they know they will be covered, if it goes wrong.

 

I believe that that plays a lot into the soft coverage we saw too much of. Some of it is the players, and some of it the coaches.

 

I say some of it is the players, as they don't want to give up the bigger plays, and are giving themselves a larger cushion because of it.

 

I don't believe for one moment that they are told to play so far off at times. I think they were taking an extra yard or so for themselves when we were in 'prevent' from time to time. I think that that also is a result of not having confidence in the safety play behind them, with Hyde out, and Poyer playing banged up  lot of the time.

 

Tbh, the best player on the secondary, was comfortably Taron Johnson, who I thought was terrific throughout the year.

 

The D-Line without Miller, wasn't impressive. His impact is twofold, in that not only does he make plays himself, but he frees others up to do so also. They obviously struggled without him, to generate any meaningful pass rush.

 

Rousseau has talent, but simply isn't ready to be a focal point yet. As to Epenesa and Basham, I thought Lawson was far more use than either of them.

 

Jones was a great signing, and was badly missed against the Bengals. He was definitely 'as advertised'. Settle wasn't as good as hoped for, and Phillips was simply too often injured.

 

Oliver blows hot and cold, and I don't know quite what to make of him. He does have more good games than indifferent ones, by a decent margin, but you want him to be good consistently, and he still isn't.

 

A starting front four of Miller, Oliver, Jones and Rousseau, is pretty decent, and when they were together, they performed well. The supporting cast, honestly, wasn't anywhere near as good, and it should have been, considering the resources used on it.

 

For all of that, I feel they can 'run it back again' with the D, providing they re-sign Edmunds and Poyer, and look for improvements in health (White) and performance, with some promising talent in the secondary, that has gained valuable experience.

 

On offense, we need better from the O-Line, and an obvious #2 receiver. 'Bombs away' as an offensive tactic, isn't going to ever work without both of those.

 

We also need to pursue a better running game, but that can hopefully come with a better O-Line.

 

Allen also needs to still work on taking what he's being given more. The end of the season had way too many big throw efforts, and I'm not convinced that they were necessarily the plays called.

 

Schematically, I think there's a lot of room for growth on Offense, but much depends on getting the O-Line right.

 

The last game was incredibly frustrating, and disappointing, but to me, it looked like (partly in retrospect) the Bills hit the emotional equivalent of the rookie wall, and were flat because of it.

 

When all is said and done, this isn't a bad team. On its day it can still beat anyone, as it did to one of the SB finalists earlier in the season.

 

There are obviously still areas where we can improve, and when you are a team that finished at 13-3 as your record, that to me is a 'glass half-full' situation.

[Ayjent]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Ayjent -

 

Great stuff, as always.  Thanks.  I really like the first paragraph.   "Imposing its will" is the key and as you say, that's what's lacking in the playoffs.  Well, missing this year.   I thought the Bills were more than tough enough against the Chiefs last year - there were other problems.   And I agree that down the stretch of the regular season, they didn't have it.  But just like against the Chiefs, the previous season that wasn't a problem.   Going into the playoffs in the 2021 season, they were the team no one wanted to play.  So, I think the things you're commenting on, although perhaps being somewhat true in early seasons, really are phenomena that troubled the Bills this season.   And as I've said, I think their inability to pull things together this season were the result of a lot of different things, in some cases unique things, that the Bills just couldn't overcome.  

 

I agree about your analysis of the defensive line, and I've said here myself.  They need some guys who WIN; instead, they seem to be loaded with guys who read and react, particularly Rousseau.   He really needs to crank up his intensity.   I never paid much attention to Von Miller before this season, but he knows how to play the position.   Not every play, not by a long shot, but every once in a while on the snap he absolutely explodes on the OT and knocks him off balance, then creates from there.   Doing that once every ten plays or whatever puts the blocker on the defensive, and it allows Miller the opportunity to attack all the other way he attacks.   Rousseau needs to do that to - instead, everyone knows he's just going to come across the line and look to see what's happening.  

 

Did they play too much soft coverage this season?  Looked like it.   

 

The thing about all of this, from my point of view, is that McDermott is smart and determined, more than any people we tend to meet in our day-to-day lives.  He works and studies all the time.   He knows the coverage was too soft.  He knows the pass rush didn't work.  He knows the defense didn't impose its will.   He sees all of that stuff and hundreds of other things, and he know what he wants to do about it.  Frankly, I think if you asked him about the soft coverage, he'd tell you exactly why they played that way, and he probably has to do with having substandard safety play late in the season, White being off his pre-injury game, and Jackson and Elam being vulnerable.  I don't know that, but isn't that the kind of reason that you would expect a smart guy like McDermott to have for playing a defense that he knows was not aggressive enough?   Especially, when he's playing a quality QB like Burrows and he knows that none of his defensive linemen are going to get home, he's not going to play press coverage if he doesn't trust his corners or safeties.  

 

Whatever the answers are, McDermott has literally made it his life to learn them.   He knows if Frazier is a problem.  He knows if Dorsey is a problem or just needed to get a year under his belt.   He knows where his personnel is weak, and he's told Beane.   

 

None of which is to say that he'll figure it out.   I'm haunted by memories of George Allen, who has absolutely glorified by the press has a determined, detail-oriented coach who would lead Washington to the Super Bowl and more, and he couldn't do it.   Just being like McDermott isn't necessarily enough.  But, as I also said before, there is nothing that any of us sees that he doesn't see, he knows which things he needs to fix, and he almost certainly knows better than any of us how to fix it.   So, like you, I'm not replacing him any time soon.

I hear what you are saying and I agree, but I wonder if McD’s solution will be the right one. If I’m him and Beane, I’m thinking we flip the script on drafting and focus on offense to build the team.  Interior line has got to improve and I’m looking for competition for Brown. I think another WR is a must, as is a physical back that they can use as a hybrid blocker/runner. I think there are gems for backs throughout the draft.  Draft physical specimens in later rounds on D and see where it takes you because I’ve seen them hit on great picks later in the draft (Taron, Milano).  
 

This offense needs to be built to do whatever it wants and they’ve got the player at QB to make that easy if they put a great line in front of him. When a teams comes looking to harass Josh on the edge they need to be able to counter that with an ability to run at those ends and keep them home.  They also need better play design but that’s a completely different conversation.   

[stuvian]

For all the criticism of Frazier's D, he effectively neutralized Chase, Higgins and Boyd in the divisional game. It was Hayden Hurst who inflicted the damage. If our offense could have sustained a drive we wouldn't be having this conversation. 

 

Our team feels like the greatest show on turf. Very glitzy with the ability to score 21 points a quarter yet one that can get B word slapped by a more meat and potatoes, Ground Chuck opponent. We are built to win in domes, not WNY winters. Yes, as painful as it is to admit, we suck at home. The Vikings game spoke volumes. 

 

I also feel like the rest of the team was coasting off Josh Allen and Von Miller. Any QB that runs as hard and as often as Allen will need to take games off and our Offense should be able to go into smashmouth mode when this happens. Aside from Miller, I didn't see any other defender consistently distinguish himself except Jordan Phillips.

 

I'm not ready to throw in the towel on Clappy but he's Schottenheimer lite until we get to a Superbowl. It still feels like he's coaching not to lose in postseason play. The adversity of the Tops shooting, snowstorms and Damar Hamlin should have been rallying points. Instead they were trotted out as excuses. This is not the stuff of leaders. I hope I'm wrong. I still think McDermott is a winner but his leash is just one more season long before we text Harbaugh on Black Monday.

 

We still have a franchise QB in his prime, an all world WR in Diggs, Miller and above average talent everywhere else. We absolutely must develop the ability to have the  running backs carry the offense as needed. If we can develop a few more of the lesser known players into playmakers we'll decimate the competition. If we sit back and wait for Allen and Miller to salvage our seasons we'll be golfing in January. 

[GreggTX]

Just a minor addition, Shaw. Rousseau took a nice step upward in his 2nd year. He's already better than Oliver. He'll probably never be an elite pass rusher, but he's easily in the top 25% of NFL starting DE's and may even get better. Losing Von really hurt him. As our best remaining DL, he probably got a lot more attention than he was before Thanksgiving.

[GreggTX]

On 2/2/2023 at 11:28 PM, HomeskillitMoorman said:

 

I don't think it is. Frazier is an extension of him, he runs the defense the way McD wants it to be run and to his vision. If McDermott had a problem with any of it, he could change it. 

 

He doesn't. He won't bring in someone that would challenge him to make changes. We've seen that already, we're still seeing it now. It's easier to keep Frazier and have most of the fanbase blame him instead as if McD doesn't have anything to do with the defense. You could literally read most of the messages on the board and most want to can Frazier and keep McDermott. It doesn't make any sense. 

 

If they think Frazier is such a big problem...whose fault is it that he's been here and is still here? It's McD's. Any way you slice it, McDermott is the problem. 

 

So McDermott's goal is to have a bad defense and keep a bad, clueless DC in place so he won't have to take the blame. Also, the loss of Hyde, Miller and other, multiple players on D had nothing to do with it. Interesting theories. So let's fire the best HC we've had since Marv and replace him with a scrub.

 

 

[Ayjent]

4 hours ago, GreggTX said:

On 2/2/2023 at 11:28 PM, HomeskillitMoorman said:

 

I don't think it is. Frazier is an extension of him, he runs the defense the way McD wants it to be run and to his vision. If McDermott had a problem with any of it, he could change it. 

 

He doesn't. He won't bring in someone that would challenge him to make changes. We've seen that already, we're still seeing it now. It's easier to keep Frazier and have most of the fanbase blame him instead as if McD doesn't have anything to do with the defense. You could literally read most of the messages on the board and most want to can Frazier and keep McDermott. It doesn't make any sense. 

 

If they think Frazier is such a big problem...whose fault is it that he's been here and is still here? It's McD's. Any way you slice it, McDermott is the problem. 

 

So McDermott's goal is to have a bad defense and keep a bad, clueless DC in place so he won't have to take the blame. Also, the loss of Hyde, Miller and other, multiple players on D had nothing to do with it. Interesting theories. So let's fire the best HC we've had since Marv and replace him with a scrub.

 

 

I think what people are asking for is that McDermott actually be the Head Coach and hire a new DC with more autonomy to run a different D than Frazier or than he might run and bring something new to the table.  But I think it’s also fair to say that maybe McD won’t fire Frazier bc he is doing what McD wants.  Either way they can’t keep doing the same thing bc it’s not the answer Defensively. The culture and expectations that McDermott and Beane have brought are to their credit and most of us don’t want to throw it all away for the unknown.  Especially given that this team mired itself in the most frustrating mediocrity for the better part of 2 decades, and the Pegulas first hire was a huge swing and miss. 
 

However, they do need to try to adapt bc this is clearly not on par with the teams that stand in the way and others are going to emerge. 

[ALF]

Bills Guard Roger Saffold Says Buffalo 'Ran Out of Gas' in NFL Playoffs

“Guys were exhausted during the week and our coaches did the best they could try to modify the week . . . but there was just uncharacteristic things that were kind of happening . . . I have to kind of put that into effect and not as an excuse just this team has been fighting for so long and fighting through all of this adversity you almost run out of gas at some point,” Saffold said, via Bridget Condon 

 

Especially since the Monday Night Football matchup, Saffold said, players "haven't been able to take a breath since the Damar situation" referencing the Week 17 game in which. Bills safety Damar Hamlin suffered a cardiac arrest on the field and had to be resuscitated.

 

That game, along with weather situations and a local shooting certainly could wear on players and that certainly can affect the play and focus on the field.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/bills/news/buffalo-bills-cincinnati-bengals-roger-safford-nfl-playoffs-loss-offseason-damar-hamlin

 

No Von Miller or Micah Hyde

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, Ayjent said:

I think what people are asking for is that McDermott actually be the Head Coach and hire a new DC with more autonomy to run a different D than Frazier or than he might run and bring something new to the table.  But I think it’s also fair to say that maybe McD won’t fire Frazier bc he is doing what McD wants.  Either way they can’t keep doing the same thing bc it’s not the answer Defensively.

Now, I'm just down to repeating myself.   Of course, what you say here is correct.   If you have the wrong QB, a good HC and GM will get a different one.  If you have the wrong DE, they'll get a different one.  If people around him the organization, or smart football people around the league, are saying you can't win with that defense, and the coach doesn't change defenses, well, then the owner has to get a different HC.   That's true.  But it's not like the Bills are the only team in the league playing 4-3, or the only team in the league that tries to get pressure on the QB rushing only four, or that avoids cover zero.   A lot of teams do what the Bills do, so I don't think the Bills have a failed, outdated defense that McD stubbornly sticks to because, well, he likes it.  Have you noticed that all last season and all off-season people here were pounding the table to get rid of Edmunds because he wasn't a run stuffer and he wasn't tough enough, and all of that has gone away because he made a few more tackles this season?  I think we have to recognize that these complaints about McDermott and Frazier, although present a bit in earlier seasons, have become the flavor of the month.   The Bills had one of the best defenses in the league, but this season, for reasons I don't completely disagree with, McDermott and Frazier are taking the blame. 

 

Well, that's all well and good.   If McDermott is so stubborn that he won't change things that have been demonstrated not to work, fine, he will have to go.  However, McDermott is a self-defined lifelong learner who is into continuous improvement.  Staying in the same place, let alone going backward, is not acceptable in his personal world.   When he came to the Bills he instituted a management system, from the top of the organization to the bottom, of regular and continuous evaluation, correction, and improvement.   Everyone in the organization, including Beane and McDermott and Frazier, is evaluated regularly, is given feedback, and is expected to learn and improve.  Everyone has a plan of improvement that is established cooperatively between that person and his supervisors.  McDermott has said repeatedly that he is subject to that system and that in any case, he does it as a matter of personal habit.   The whole point of the system is that people, players, coaches, sales people, cafeteria people, will continue to improve in their jobs, from day to day, week to week, year to year.   In that environment, both organizationally and personally, McDermott will not continue to do things that are not working.

 

He has, for example, studied the 4-3 and the 3-4 for 20 years, and I'm sure he understands more about both systems than any person posting here.   He knows the strengths and weaknesses of both, and he prefers the 4-3.  He can explain his reasons for preferring it, and he can agree with us that he might be wrong about his preference, but he doesn't think so.  When it becomes obvious that the 3-4 is better, McDermott will switch, because he learns and because winning is what matters to him.  So, too, his 8-man DL rotation, and his preference for zone pass defense, and every other strategic choice there is to be made on a football field.  McDermott will not continue to do what doesn't work, and he won't permit Frazier to continue to do what doesn't work.

 

So, yes, we all can sit and say Frazier isn't getting the job done, and that means either Frazier or McDermott or both need to change or be replaced, but that is not something McDermott and Beane and the Pegulas don't already know.  And the Bills have in a place a management system the whole point of which is to identify and address issues exactly like that in order to improve.  

 

So, yes, you've set forth the problem nicely and as usual, I agree with just about all you say and admire how you say it, but I'm not stressing over it.  McBeane will deal with it. 

 

If I want to play DC for a minute, McD's DC, I know I'll be running 4-2-5.  I'll have Hyde and Taron Johnson at safety, White and Elam at the corners, Benford or Jackson in the slot.  I'll probably get help from some rookie DB.   I'll have Edmunds and Milano and an 8-man rotation on the Dline.  I'll be figuring out how to get more pressure on the QB in my system, and I'll be working with Beane about tweaking the personnel, again, in that area.  I'll be studying film and understanding how the Bengals and other teams have been getting receivers open for medium-range completions, and I'll be tweaking the scheme to make that tougher.   I'll be figuring out how to change the mix of zone and man how to get more stops on third and seven and third and eight.  

 

If people want to come on here and say they would prefer a different defense, well, fine, but as I said, people's preferences are just that.  If they want to proclaim, as many do, that they're right and McDermott is wrong, well, I'm sticking with McDermott.