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Interesting analysis of mocks to Bills


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6 hours ago, Brennan Huff said:

Mock drafts mean absolutely nothing in the real world. It’s more of a “fantasy” than fantasy football. Hall could be mocked to the Bills one hundred billion times and it would mean nothing. Completely nothing…

 

Mock drafts is like twitter - perfectly named.  Mockers should be mocked and twitter is for twits.

What the Bills is not micks but preparation and scouting for draft.

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2 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

Thanks. People who judge mocks by percentage of exact player at exact draft position are missing the whole point. Mocks give you a pretty decent, if imperfect, sense of the shape of the draft and of the ranges and scenarios for various players.

 

In Sharp's tables, the top 20 are startlingly accurate (9 of the top 10 were predicted to be top 10, and 7 of the next 10 were predicted to be in the 11-20 range).

 

Precision naturally decreases as you go down. Mocks that go into the later rounds should be looked at with a much broader lens (e.g., how many guys predicted to be Day 2 were actually Day 2). There is no sense expecting a super close correlation the farther down you go, but I bet you still get a reasonable sense of the shape and of the bulk of the players going in a given (expanding) range.

 

There is a lot of useful information in aggregated mocks, especially for Rounds 1 and 2, unless you are trying to figure out exactly who the number 56 pick will be or something insane like that. Then they are useless. But so is everything else, including detailed notes from the war room of the team actually picking number 56, since even they only have a mock-like idea of who will be there.

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7 hours ago, CapeBreton said:

I'm surprised there are that many mocks with McDuffie to the Bills. Most of the ones I see, he's gone well before that. If he dropped to 25, seems like a no brainer for the Bills, even though he has some short arms.

The # of QBs that will go in the 1st round will dictate if some of these guys are going to fall to us at 25.   I still hope we get Lloyd.  He appears to be a game changing player in this draft...sorta like the other Josh Allen (who coincidentally terrorized our own JA17 in November)

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7 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

 

What do I notice? That the Seattle Seahwaks suck at drafting?

4 hours ago, Last Guy on the Bench said:

Thanks. People who judge mocks by percentage of exact player at exact draft position are missing the whole point. Mocks give you a pretty decent, if imperfect, sense of the shape of the draft and of the ranges and scenarios for various players.

 

In Sharp's tables, the top 20 are startlingly accurate (9 of the top 10 were predicted to be top 10, and 7 of the next 10 were predicted to be in the 11-20 range).

 

Precision naturally decreases as you go down. Mocks that go into the later rounds should be looked at with a much broader lens (e.g., how many guys predicted to be Day 2 were actually Day 2). There is no sense expecting a super close correlation the farther down you go, but I bet you still get a reasonable sense of the shape and of the bulk of the players going in a given (expanding) range.

 

There is a lot of useful information in aggregated mocks, especially for Rounds 1 and 2, unless you are trying to figure out exactly who the number 56 pick will be or something insane like that. Then they are useless. But so is everything else, including detailed notes from the war room of the team actually picking number 56, since even they only have a mock-like idea of who will be there.

 

On a serious note this. Totally this. The people who say they are pointless unless they are exact miss the point. 

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8 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

 

 

It is surprising to me that the biggest reach in absolute draft position during the 4 years is Pittsburgh picking Terrell Edmunds 106 positions higher than predicted in 2018.   You don't really think of the Steelers as a front office that reaches a lot.

 

He hasn't been a bust but probably a bit of a disappointment.  He was a  RFA this year who got no interest from other teams and re-signed with the Steelers for 1 yr at 2.5M.

 

 

 

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The question of what if Booth’s injury is worse than thought is unlikely.  Hernias heal just fine.  I had one and it was a severe tear.

 

That doesn’t detract me at all from wanting Booth.  Could he maybe need until October to be 100%?  Maybe, but we’re not drafting for day 1 ability.

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9 hours ago, ganesh said:

The # of QBs that will go in the 1st round will dictate if some of these guys are going to fall to us at 25.   I still hope we get Lloyd.  He appears to be a game changing player in this draft...sorta like the other Josh Allen (who coincidentally terrorized our own JA17 in November)

I would also say edge and OT both help push CB and WR our way. 

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2 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

The question of what if Booth’s injury is worse than thought is unlikely.  Hernias heal just fine.  I had one and it was a severe tear.

 

That doesn’t detract me at all from wanting Booth.  Could he maybe need until October to be 100%?  Maybe, but we’re not drafting for day 1 ability.

 

He also reportedly has knee and neck issues that popped up in medicals as well. 

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16 hours ago, AuntieEm said:

 

     Hmm, think we got Thurman Thomas because he was supposed to be a 2nd rounder back in the day?   If he's that good but does drop its due to teams hedging over the injury and not willing to wait 9n him to get well.  Bills are very fortunate 8n that they don't really have many glaring needs so they can be a bit more patient.  I also think the Bills have historically had good medical evaluations and if they sign off on his recovery then that's good enough to grab him there if he falls.

The thing is he’s trying to recover from double hernia that injury although players do recover most never come back the way they were before the hernia .  On top of that he has some type of inflammatory problems with his knees sounds like Gurley type injury. I’m aware the Bills have great medical staff but this could be too much for Booth to get back to himself from. 

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