Todd McShay’s latest 2 round mock draft!

[BillsFanForever19]

14 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

IF true and IF signed before the draft, OK, but if not then I think it is foolish to count on that as the draft starts.

 

I don't see it happening. As I stated in an earlier post, we're at a little over 8 million under the cap. It's going to take around 3 to sign our Draft Picks. You don't want to go into the regular season at 0. Most teams keep 2-3 in case of injuries or surprise releases. So whomever we sign will not be of the Stephon Gilmore or James Bradberry variety (especially when the latter will cost a Draft Pick and we won't be signing him to a costly long term deal).

 

I think the plan at Veteran CB is to get a bargain on a one year deal as Training Camp comes near and guys get desperate. But that's to add to the depth chart that will include a high Draft Pick. Without Tre, we're not going to start the season with just a Steven Nelson like vet we sign late, alongside Dane Jackson and Cam Lewis. 

 

If the plan were to address CB2 with a vet, we'd have been in on someone of substance right off the bat. The fact that we haven't clearly points to them looking for a long term cost controlled option in the Draft. Circumvented by another solid bargain guy late in the Offseason.

[Pete]

Quote

 

I would love to see Beane trade back, for a high 2nd and high 3rd pick, to add to our 2nd, and 3rd pick.  And use one of those 2s on Walker or Breece.  We still can draft CB and WR and take your pick-OL, TE, LB, S.  Two new toys for Josh, and #1 Defense in NFL gets Tra back and shiny new corner

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Did he beat your results? You are pretty good in my book. 

 

My best ever was 8 exact matches. To get 16 is almost unheard of. 

[machine gun kelly]

Booth was the mock pick from MTC on NFLR last week.  Kirwan keeps drawing the mock each week and keeps picking CB.

 

it just makes sense.  We have to hope we get Tre back as close to the beginning of the season as possible.  Maybe we get lucky and get another Milano on the 5th round.  The uplifting news is Diggs was also a 5th rounder.  I trust Beane.

[GunnerBill]

17 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Not at all like flipping a coin.  Flipping a coin 32 time and trying to predict the order of heads and tails would be closer, but easier. 

 

And even that isn't close. Flipping a coin with about 50 sides 32 times and calling 16 accurate outcomes. What would the odds on that be?

[Southern_Bills]

22 hours ago, eball said:

 

Even a blind squirrel occasionally stumbles upon a nut or two.

 

That astounding result is still only 50%, and how many of those matches were after the top 10?

 

 

I couldn't care less about mock drafts, but to be fair, by nature they are setup to be inaccurate. 

 

On team goes rouge and does something no one expects and the entire round changes.

[Beerball]

23 hours ago, HOUSE said:

Wasn't he the guy who trashed the Josh Allen pick ?  I think I will pass on his predictions

You know, there's this thing called the interwebs where you can find out information as quickly as you can type. Part of the interwebs is the google machine. Try it.

 

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/espns-todd-mcshay-breaks-down-the-drafts-top-quarterback-prospects/article_fa4642ff-6acd-53a4-b57f-4ebd2926c157.html

[eball]

Ok, I know I said I wouldn’t post in here any more, but I found this site interesting.  It’s a ranking of 181 1st round mock drafts from last year (and you can go back as far as 2018) using a pretty intricate grading system that is extremely lenient towards the “mocker.”  It awards a range of points in four categories, resulting in a total of 320 possible points.

 

Using a point system that rewards “being close” the best mocker last year still scored only 207 (65%) and there were just three guys who broke 200.  #181 scored 114.  The average was 152.6 and the median was 151; both under 50%.  “Star” mocker McShay was at least above average with 168; Kiper was at 153.  John Clayton (RIP) scored 129; a solid tie for 159th place.

 

Of the four years of rankings available, 2021 was the most successful overall for the mockers.

 

@GunnerBill I’d love to see you go back and score your draft using this methodology.  I respect all of the scouting work you do and I’m curious.

 

Anyway, I know I’m not changing anyone’s mind and this phenomenon will continue, but I’m happy I’ve now found some actual evidence of what a futile exercise it appears to be.

 

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, eball said:

Anyway, I know I’m not changing anyone’s mind and this phenomenon will continue, but I’m happy I’ve now found some actual evidence of what a futile exercise it appears to be.

 

 

I don't believe that is what you have found. 

 

EDIT: on my mocks yep, very happy to go back and do a couple of years scored on their methodology. 

Edited April 12, 2022 by GunnerBill

[Einstein's Dog]

13 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

IF true and IF signed before the draft, OK, but if not then I think it is foolish to count on that as the draft starts.

Why can't they draft with confidence that they have a vet CB if Beane tells them he will get them one?  

 

What you're suggesting is a classic example of drafting for need.  Generally frowned upon.  

 

It is a unique situation where there seem to be a glut of FA CBs still out there.  If Beane is confident that by waiting he will get a significantly better deal, then of course, they should do that.  It is not foolish.

[OldTimer1960]

33 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Why can't they draft with confidence that they have a vet CB if Beane tells them he will get them one?  

 

What you're suggesting is a classic example of drafting for need.  Generally frowned upon.  

 

It is a unique situation where there seem to be a glut of FA CBs still out there.  If Beane is confident that by waiting he will get a significantly better deal, then of course, they should do that.  It is not foolish.

I will agree that I don’t want them to reach for a corner, but it isn’t like they can control what vet CBs will sign for and the longer they wait, the fewer that may be available.  
 

I am not one of the fans chanting “all in for this year, future be damned”, but from my vantage point they have only a mostly unproven 7th round draft choice who doesn’t have the high-end athletic tools (relative to the NFL) and nobody else to start at corner should Tre White miss the beginning of the season.  In this scenario, I think that they need to find a way to address CB in the draft to have someone who could step in at the beginning and not get roasted (maybe not optimally, but better than what is currently on the roster).  If that means trading up to secure who they want or trading back into the early 2nd to try to get CB value to match draft position (perhaps for Kyler Gordon), then that is what I think they have to do.  

 

An alternative might be to trade for a veteran CB, but they would still have to somehow fit that vet in under the tight cap.

 

Otherwise, I think they risk some damaging losses early if they try to play defense against, say Miami with Jaylon Waddle, Tyreek Hill and Mike Gesicki by playing defense with Dane Jackson and Cam Lewis or Siran Neal lined up with Taron Johnson in the slot corner spot.

 

I don’t think it is a stretch to say that Dane Jackson and Cam Lewis might not even make the roster on several other teams.

[Einstein's Dog]

12 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I think the plan at Veteran CB is to get a bargain on a one year deal as Training Camp comes near and guys get desperate. But that's to add to the depth chart that will include a high Draft Pick. Without Tre, we're not going to start the season with just a Steven Nelson like vet we sign late, alongside Dane Jackson and Cam Lewis. 

 

If the plan were to address CB2 with a vet, we'd have been in on someone of substance right off the bat. The fact that we haven't clearly points to them looking for a long term cost controlled option in the Draft. Circumvented by another solid bargain guy late in the Offseason.

I think the plan remains to address CB2 with a vet.  I think the plan was always a CB2 vet on a team friendly deal, not vet CB at all costs.  They never planned to be a big player, big spender, at CB2 (that was reserved for pass rusher).  So by being a secondary player in the market you should not have expected someone right off the bat.  Unusual circumstances have the acquisition delayed a little longer than in the past.

 

Steve Nelson is not coming in as depth.  You aren't seriously thinking Booth would start over him are you?  I would pencil him in as the starter.  Same for Rhodes/Callahan/King/Haden/Fuller/Gilmore/maybe Sherman.

 

 

 

[Einstein's Dog]

16 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I will agree that I don’t want them to reach for a corner, but it isn’t like they can control what vet CBs will sign for and the longer they wait, the fewer that may be available.  
 

I am not one of the fans chanting “all in for this year, future be damned”, but from my vantage point they have only a mostly unproven 7th round draft choice who doesn’t have the high-end athletic tools (relative to the NFL) and nobody else to start at corner should Tre White miss the beginning of the season.  In this scenario, I think that they need to find a way to address CB in the draft to have someone who could step in at the beginning and not get roasted (maybe not optimally, but better than what is currently on the roster).  If that means trading up to secure who they want or trading back into the early 2nd to try to get CB value to match draft position (perhaps for Kyler Gordon), then that is what I think they have to do.  

 

An alternative might be to trade for a veteran CB, but they would still have to somehow fit that vet in under the tight cap.

 

Otherwise, I think they risk some damaging losses early if they try to play defense against, say Miami with Jaylon Waddle, Tyreek Hill and Mike Gesicki by playing defense with Dane Jackson and Cam Lewis or Siran Neal lined up with Taron Johnson in the slot corner spot.

 

I don’t think it is a stretch to say that Dane Jackson and Cam Lewis might not even make the roster on several other teams.

You're scaring me, you're suggesting something like having K Gordon start.  Part of the success of this FO has been the belief that the draft is for the futute.  They use their picks on BPA for premium positions of use, not for short term need.  Yes, CB would qualify but not in a panic stricken way.

 

I believe (hope) the FO has just temporarily delayed their FA fills holes prior to the draft approach due to the unique circumstances of this year.  I'm expecting a decent CB (better than Wallace) to be acquired.  There remain Nelson/Fuller/Callahan/King/Haden/Gilmore/Sherman/Jenkins.  Much rather have any of them starting the season over Gordon (or Booth for that matter).

[OldTimer1960]

3 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

You're scaring me, you're suggesting something like having K Gordon start.  Part of the success of this FO has been the belief that the draft is for the futute.  They use their picks on BPA for premium positions of use, not for short term need.  Yes, CB would qualify but not in a panic stricken way.

 

I believe (hope) the FO has just temporarily delayed their FA fills holes prior to the draft approach due to the unique circumstances of this year.  I'm expecting a decent CB (better than Wallace) to be acquired.  There remain Nelson/Fuller/Callahan/King/Haden/Gilmore/Sherman/Jenkins.  Much rather have any of them starting the season over Gordon (or Booth for that matter).

Agree not optimal to have a rookie start, but it is certainly not unheard of.  Greg Rousseau started most of last season - at least I think he did.  Spencer Brown started part of the season as well.

 

But isn’t it possible that a rookie is just better than some cheap vet who is likely near the end of his career (hence why he would be cheap enough to fit under the cap)?

[Patrick Duffy]

Wasn't he the one that rolled his eyes and gave Kiper(think it was) a hard time for praising Allen and ended up looking silly?

[Spiderweb]

On 4/11/2022 at 8:05 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

Well even if it was only 6 outside the top 10 the level of varience in a draft makes that a pretty astounding effort. He also correctly predicted 28 of the 32 guys who went in the 1st. If you think mocks only have value if they get all 32 right ever likely you don't see value in them. 

 

Are mock drafts a bit of a cottage industry? Sure. But they have value. If done well they can demonstrate scenarios that might play out and get fans to really think about team building and the multi faceted job a GM has to do when drafting. Even if not done well they can be an entertaining appetiser for the draft itself. 

Mock drafts are pure snack food. No nutritional value but are enjoyed by many. Personally, I try to avoid them. I clicked on this thread mainly to say that Todd McShay is an arrogant tool who should be avoided.

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I think the plan remains to address CB2 with a vet.  I think the plan was always a CB2 vet on a team friendly deal, not vet CB at all costs.  They never planned to be a big player, big spender, at CB2 (that was reserved for pass rusher).  So by being a secondary player in the market you should not have expected someone right off the bat.  Unusual circumstances have the acquisition delayed a little longer than in the past.

 

Steve Nelson is not coming in as depth.  You aren't seriously thinking Booth would start over him are you?  I would pencil him in as the starter.  Same for Rhodes/Callahan/King/Haden/Fuller/Gilmore/maybe Sherman.

 

 

 

Steve Nelson is not currently on the team.  My posts are considering current situation, not what might happen.  If Nelson or another vet that can start early and challenge Jackson when White gets back signs before the draft, that would reduce the urgency to pick a CB high, though it is still a need. 

[Patrick Duffy]

12 minutes ago, Spiderweb said:

Mock drafts are pure snack food. No nutritional value but are enjoyed by many. Personally, I try to avoid them. I clicked on this thread mainly to say that Todd McShay is an arrogant tool who should be avoided.

 

Same here....never has been my thing really. But regarding McShay, hard to take anything serious from him after the way he acted concerning Allen. And yes, I know all those so called "experts" are wrong about players many times, but that particular instance imo it just seemed like he was intentionally making a point to act like an ass that day.

 

 

[Einstein's Dog]

2 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Agree not optimal to have a rookie start, but it is certainly not unheard of.  Greg Rousseau started most of last season - at least I think he did.  Spencer Brown started part of the season as well.

 

But isn’t it possible that a rookie is just better than some cheap vet who is likely near the end of his career (hence why he would be cheap enough to fit under the cap)?

It's a terrible idea to count on having a rookie start day 1 on a superbowl contending team.  Yes, I agree it's possible to have a rookie work his way into starting lineup.

 

I also don't buy the idea that it has to be a cheap vet.  I just think reasonably priced.  There were rumors they were in the hunt for Peterson who ended up at $4-5M.   

[Einstein's Dog]

35 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Steve Nelson is not currently on the team.  My posts are considering current situation, not what might happen.  If Nelson or another vet that can start early and challenge Jackson when White gets back signs before the draft, that would reduce the urgency to pick a CB high, though it is still a need. 

My point was I'm hoping they draft like they will fill the CB spot in FA.  Steve Nelson was the example someone else provided who thought we wouldn't start w Nelson and Jackson.

 

So, with reduced urgency would you then rather have C Watson over Booth?

 

Because when you say reduced urgency you are really just factoring out the short term need.