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Democracy’s Fiery Ordeal: The War in Ukraine 🇺🇦


Tiberius

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8 hours ago, ChiGoose said:

The war either devolves into a many year grind or Russia’s numbers eventually prevail as Ukraine runs out of weapons. 

 

I would argue we're already there.  Ukraine just recognized 500 days of war.  That's a year and a half.  The much anticipated Ukrainian spring offense with all the fancy new armaments we sent them was supposed to bring Russia to the bargaining table.   It's now mid summer and Russia is still a no show.

 

Ukraine is running out of ammunition as I type.

 

It's now in an old school World War I style trench war of attrition with no end in sight.

 

When Ukraine starts running out of soldiers, then what?  Whatever it takes as President Biden says?

Edited by reddogblitz
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12 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

 

I would argue we're already there.  Ukraine just recognized 500 days of war.  That's a year and a half.  The much anticipated Ukrainian spring offense with all the fancy new armaments we sent them was supposed to bring Russia to the bargaining table.   It's now mid summer and Russia is still a no show.

 

Ukraine is running out of ammunition as I type.

 

It's now in an old school World War I style trench war of attrition with no end in sight.

 

When Ukraine starts running out of soldiers, then what?  Whatever it takes as President Biden says?

How is Ukraine running out of soldiers? You guys just keep making crap up 

 

Putin appreciates your appeasement

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37 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

How is Ukraine running out of soldiers? You guys just keep making crap up 

 

Putin appreciates your appeasement

That's not what @reddogblitzsaid.  The premise was a war of attrition would favor the side with the larger force.  That seems logical and mathematically sound.  Its a reasonable question to ask under circumstances when somebody pledges unlimited support.  So if it comes to the point where they don't have enough soldiers to either win the war or fight to a stalemate what's the action coming out of the administration's "whatever it takes" pledge to fix that problem?  Outside of surrender it would be get some troops from someplace else,  So where is this someplace else?  How is asking that question appeasement?  Does "whatever it takes" include US forces in direct combat operations?  Yes or no?   And if the answer is "no" are you prepared to allow Ukraine to lose?

Edited by All_Pro_Bills
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39 minutes ago, aristocrat said:


nice. Sending over munitions banned in much of the world cause they tend to kill civilians. 
 

hand up if you’re down with war crimes!

 

Man, this talking point is very, very important for some reason.

 

Nevermind it's already been discussed in this thread not two pages back. 

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50 minutes ago, Coffeesforclosers said:

 

Man, this talking point is very, very important for some reason.

 

Nevermind it's already been discussed in this thread not two pages back. 

 

 

It continues to be in the news.

 

 

UK and Spain Call on Biden to Not Send Cluster Bombs to Ukraine

by Kurt Zindulka

 

The United Kingdom and the Kingdom of Spain have called upon U.S. President Joe Biden to not send cluster bombs to Ukraine amid concerns over the danger they pose to civilian populations. As Ukraine marked over 500 days since the invasion by Russian forces, significant challenges have been levied against the war strategy of the Biden administration from its NATO allies in Europe, with both the British and Spanish governments urging Washington to back down from its pledge to send cluster bombs into the conflict. Both the UK and Spain are signatories of the International Convention on Cluster Munitions, which prohibits the use, manufacturing, stockpiling or transfer of the weapon type

 

Speaking to reporters on Saturday, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said per the BBC that the UK is a “signatory to a convention which prohibits the production or use of cluster munitions and discourages their use.”

“We will continue to do our part to support Ukraine against Russia’s illegal and unprovoked invasion, but we’ve done that by providing heavy battle tanks and most recently long-range weapons, and hopefully all countries can continue to support Ukraine,” he added.

 

Meanwhile, Spanish Defence Minister Margarita Robles said that the decision to send cluster munitions to Ukraine was a unilateral decision taken by the Biden administration and not one agreed to by NATO, of which Spain is a member.

“Spain, based on the firm commitment it has with Ukraine, also has a firm commitment that certain weapons and bombs cannot be delivered under any circumstances,” she said according to Reuters reporters in Madrid.

“No to cluster bombs and yes to the legitimate defence of Ukraine, which we understand should not be carried out with cluster bombs,” Robles added.

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/spain-and-uk-warn-against-sending-cluster-bombs-to-ukraine-russia-war/

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-66142554

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/spain-says-cluster-bombs-should-not-be-sent-ukraine-2023-07-08/

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, aristocrat said:


nice. Sending over munitions banned in much of the world cause they tend to kill civilians. 
 

hand up if you’re down with war crimes!

 

The use of US sourced cluster munitions by military folks skilled in their use, and with strict ROE and follow up, is not a war crime.

Nor do they have high dud rates. The Russian's do.

No surprise there.

 

So while my hand is "not up" for war crimes, it is certainly up for deployment of these with the restrictions put in place by the US to a country that is willing to abide and use them on their own dirt.

 

I have no problem with using something that is absolutely necessary to move this catastrophic war to an end.

Edited by sherpa
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5 hours ago, Tiberius said:

 

How is Ukraine running out of soldiers? You guys just keep making crap up 

 

Putin appreciates your appeasement

 

Putin appreciates your lack of reading comprehension.

 

Key word, when.  Which if this keeps up as is they will eventually.  

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4 hours ago, aristocrat said:


nice. Sending over munitions banned in much of the world cause they tend to kill civilians. 
 

hand up if you’re down with war crimes!

The thing about war crimes is with few exceptions they're generally committed by the losers.  After WW2 there were the Nuremberg trials of former Nazi officials and SS officers for assorted atrocities, murder, and crimes against humanity.  Completely appropriate. 

 

But, for example, no WW2 British or American civilian or military leaders were charged with the firebombing of Dresden, a target with no military value, in February 1945 which targeted a civilian population with casualty estimates as high as 250K deaths.  The RAF sent 800 bombers on the night of 2/13/1945 followed up by a US air corps 210 bomber daytime raid on 2/15/1945. 

 

History demonstrates you win the war, you write the story, you skate off free and clear.    

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1 minute ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

The thing about war crimes is with few exceptions they're generally committed by the losers.  After WW2 there were the Nuremberg trials of former Nazi officials and SS officers for assorted atrocities, murder, and crimes against humanity.  Completely appropriate. 

 

But, for example, no WW2 British or American civilian or military leaders were charged with the firebombing of Dresden, a target with no military value, in February 1945 which targeted a civilian population with casualty estimates as high as 250K deaths.  The RAF sent 800 bombers on the night of 2/13/1945 followed up by a US air corps 210 bomber daytime raid on 2/15/1945. 

 

History demonstrates you win the war, you write the story, you skate off free and clear.    

We’re not in a war. We’re just paying for one. 

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17 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

The thing about war crimes is with few exceptions they're generally committed by the losers.  After WW2 there were the Nuremberg trials of former Nazi officials and SS officers for assorted atrocities, murder, and crimes against humanity.  Completely appropriate. 

 

But, for example, no WW2 British or American civilian or military leaders were charged with the firebombing of Dresden, a target with no military value, in February 1945 which targeted a civilian population with casualty estimates as high as 250K deaths.  The RAF sent 800 bombers on the night of 2/13/1945 followed up by a US air corps 210 bomber daytime raid on 2/15/1945. 

 

History demonstrates you win the war, you write the story, you skate off free and clear.    

 

This is absolutely true and the reason I went after Tibs when he first linked the use of cluster bombs with war crimes allegations.

Whoever wins does the prosecuting, and people judging have no real idea of the context of their use.

 

We have an all volunteer military, and we have cluster bombs.

Subjecting our aviators to possible war crimes for such deployment would be an unforgiveable mistake, unless they intentionally the  used them beyond the bounds of rules of engagement.

 

If you are assigned a strike, target is given to you. You may influence the weapons load, but you certainly don't dig into the intel that was used to determine the target. 

The strike leader would determine tactics, ie strike assets used, weapons, timing and attack headings, but would not be in a position to judge the target selection.

 

So, what you would potentially get is someone being charged with a war crime on a target determined by others.

Not a great situation, and not something we want to do.

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7 hours ago, sherpa said:

 

The use of US sourced cluster munitions by military folks skilled in their use, and with strict ROE and follow up, is not a war crime.

Nor do they have high dud rates. The Russian's do.

No surprise there.

 

So while my hand is "not up" for war crimes, it is certainly up for deployment of these with the restrictions put in place by the US to a country that is willing to abide and use them on their own dirt.

 

I have no problem with using something that is absolutely necessary to move this catastrophic war to an end.


I was on the fence about the cluster bombs until it was pointed out that Russia has been using them in the war, including in civilian areas. 
 

Therefore, even if Ukraine doesn’t use them, they will still have a problem with UXO after the war. It’s not like Ukraine will be introducing cluster munitions into the war zone, they are already there. 
 

So as long Ukraine’s use of them is reasonably restricted to avoid civilian casualties (and it’d be their civilians so I imagine they also want to avoid civilian harm), I think it’s probably the right call. 

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Some good news:

 

Ukraine making progress in push to retake Bakhmut from Russian forces

 

Kyiv’s offensive push for the city began in mid-June, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. The British Ministry of Defence assesses that Kyiv has made “steady gains” to the north and south of Bakhmut. In the south, Ukrainian troops have seized positions on the high ground to the immediate west of the village of Klishchiivka, putting the Russian troops in the settlement in the unenviable position of taking fire from elevated positions. In the north, Ukrainian forces made “tactically significant gains,” according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, as they pushed the Russian forces back toward the village of Yahidne.

 

On Monday, Syrskyi announced that Kyiv had put all of Bakhmut under “fire control,” meaning Ukrainian forces are now within striking range of all Russian targets.

 

Both Russian, Ukrainian and Western sources point to the deteriorating morale situation among Russian forces in the area, which has led to several instances of localized mutinies as groups of Russian soldiers refuse to fight. Videos of multiple groups of insubordinates have circulated on Russian Telegram, usually with the Russians complaining about heavy losses, inadequate artillery support and meager pay — all criticisms, it bears noting, that Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin leveled against Moscow in the lead-up to his mutiny last month. “We asked our commanders to bring us food and water,” one group of Russian conscripts from Altai Krai in Siberia complained. “They responded to us with swear words.”

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Ukraine and Russia have been using cluster munitions since 2014.  

 

Cluster Munition Use in Russia-Ukraine War | Human Rights Watch (hrw.org)

Mostly the same kinds as well. 

 

(Kyiv, July 6, 2023) – Ukrainian forces have used cluster munitions that caused numerous deaths and serious injuries to civilians, Human Rights Watch said today. Russian forces have extensively used cluster munitions in Ukraine, killing many civilians and causing other serious civilian harm.

New Human Rights Watch research found that Ukrainian cluster munition rocket attacks on Russian-controlled areas in and around the city of Izium in eastern Ukraine during 2022 caused many casualties among Ukrainian civilians. Both countries should stop using these inherently indiscriminate weapons, and no country should supply cluster munitions because of their foreseeable danger to civilians.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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