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Josh Allen is looking a lot more like the 2019 version


KzooMike
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10 minutes ago, Bangarang said:


So far this year, Josh is 4/17 on passes that travel 15 or more yards in the air. Small sample size but that’s obviously pretty bad. 

Does that include the throwaways that go out of the EZ? I'm less concerned with the completion percentage (although it's certainly a decent proxy) than with the accuracy percentage. One of those throws was to Sanders in the Pitt game and accurate, although the defender (Pierre) was in position to make a play on it immediately (and did). The lofted throws to McKenzie and Diggs were both accurate, although they resulted in incompletions because they shouldn't have been lofted. But yeah, a bunch of off-target throws so far.  On a few, the coverage has been good enough to cause an incomletion. 

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9 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

This is a bizarre thread.  Is anyone actually arguing that Allen is playing well?  If so I must've missed it. It seems like everyone agrees that he's off - but there are folks who would like to start panicking now, and then the rest of us.

agreed.  i don't think anyone feels he's ok at this point, but we're in game 2 of a 17 game season.  one game at a time, get as many wins as possible, and give this ***** a chance to play out.  i'm not worried...yet.

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4 hours ago, nbbillsfan said:

This has been a rough start for Allen, Daboll and perhaps the WR's. I have not noticed nearly the amount of separation we consistently saw last year (either as a function of play design and/or receiver's winning their routes). However, Allen has missed on the few open shots he has had. All parties need to step it up Big time....

Wouldn't you have to watch the game film to know for sure? 

7 hours ago, Rigotz said:

This is a crazy thought, but stay with me.

Maybe, just maybe, it's only the first two games of the season and the Bills have played against two top 10 defenses.

 

After next week, when the Bills play another top 5 defense, the sky will not be falling. The defenses are just really good.

The Raiders just put up 26 on Pittsburgh.

 

Can we stop with the excuses? 

9 hours ago, Gugny said:

Just call a spade a spade.  Allen looks like crap.  I am super confident that he'll right the ship;  but to say he hasn't been pretty bad is simply wrong.

What gives you so much confidence that he'll turn it around?

 

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Anyone remember how the board felt after we lost to KC and TN last season?

 

It's just so early.  After so many years of the internet & so many sports shows on TV and radio, it has become very easy to recognize and identify hot takes.  Concern about Allen in general is something I would file under that category, because it's been 2 games, and we won the last one by 35 points.

 

If it's late October and we're still seeing the same thing, sure.  

 

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2 hours ago, Bangarang said:


Lol what? We literally were 1 game away from the SB with that model. 

We didn’t need to revamp how we do things because it obviously worked. The biggest weakness we had was our defense’s inability to get pressure without sending extra guys.
 

You add a few guys who can do that and if the offense continues it’s play from last year we are without a doubt in the hunt for a SB.  

We got our butts handed to us in the AFC Championship game on BOTH sides of the ball, on offense partly because our scheme was 1 dimensional.   If we can establish the threat of a real run game instead of just praying that Allen plays out of his mind, that opens this team up for a real shot at a championship.   It also makes Allen's life easier.

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19 minutes ago, Success said:

Anyone remember how the board felt after we lost to KC and TN last season?

 

It's just so early.  After so many years of the internet & so many sports shows on TV and radio, it has become very easy to recognize and identify hot takes.  Concern about Allen in general is something I would file under that category, because it's been 2 games, and we won the last one by 35 points.

 

If it's late October and we're still seeing the same thing, sure.  

 

Well said.  And in the Miami game the offense was efficient and scored 5 TD's on 5 decent drives including a knockout blow right out of the looker room after halftime.

 

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I haven't seen this mentioned yet, but is it possible that Allen was never really that good? Last year's schedule was pretty weak. Combine that with playing in front of no fans and I think it's entirely possible that last year could have been a fluke. 

 

 

 

 

 

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39 minutes ago, NJKBillsfan said:

 

What gives you so much confidence that he'll turn it around?

 

 

Because he's proven, for three years, that once he's aware of shortcomings, he works diligently to improve.  I'm not sure why he seems to have reverted, but I really do feel that he'll make consistent forward strides and he and the team will be just fine.

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18 hours ago, Figster said:

Most of the starters had very little game play through the preseason. What are you suggesting? Allens regressing? Getting the O into the right plays to succeed including run plays is a big part of a QB's job. Buffalo won 35 - 0 and Josh Allen ran the O that accomplished it. 

           

       He also made some td passes without forcing the ball but because he isn't posting higher fantasy winning stats fans are saying he regressed. 2 of 17 games not even a quarter of season played.  We have a nice new pass rush that looks like it can  really grow with interesting potential.  I'm not buying many of the teams we will play still this season will have the defense capable of shutting down Josh and this offense not to mention that team would need an equally skilled offense to get by our so far stellar defense.

 

    Early yet but we got the horses now to maintain a rotation that allows for resting players that max need it during season.  Bills have invested heavily in maintaining the right blend of recovery specialists to keep players in peak condition. 

 

 

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31 minutes ago, Tenhigh said:

We got our butts handed to us in the AFC Championship game on BOTH sides of the ball, on offense partly because our scheme was 1 dimensional.   If we can establish the threat of a real run game instead of just praying that Allen plays out of his mind, that opens this team up for a real shot at a championship.   It also makes Allen's life easier.


We got our butts handed to us because the o-line couldn’t block and the d-line couldn’t get pressure. That’s what actually happened. 

 

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10 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

No offense (see what I did there?  heh) but generally speaking when someone picks a non-standard grouping to analyze, it's a sign of cherrypicking data to prove a point.  Why not pick the last 4 regular season games, or the last 8 regular season games? 

 

I expect you could pick a couple 4 week windows in 2020 and argue that Josh Allen is looking like 2019 Josh Allen.

Try week 3-6 or week 4-8

 

 

 

I was targeting data to make Allen look bad? Use your eyes as a starting point. Exclude last year if you wish. Call it 2021 (yes only two games), but how many franchise QB's forget how to read the field for consecutive games? At least 3 consecutive if you get snug with data? Not relevant and overly fit when you can't make your progressions? He doesn't know where to go with the football right now. I put the issue just as much on Daboll as Josh. If we can develop a run game perhaps teams will stop treating us like the 90's Bills, maybe this time we decide to run Thurman. Right now teams have our offense mapped and we just keep walking right into it. It's a problem with Josh and Daboll and it is not a sample size issue. It will 100% continue unless something changes based on the nature of the problem.   

 

 

13 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You don't think the Baltimore, Kansas City, Pittsburgh and Miami defenses had anything to do with this?

 

Those were last year's #2, #3, #6 and #11 defenses. This year's opponents were #3 and #6. That's a very high level pair we've faced so far this year.

 

IMO the answers are simple, but not easy, to steal from Marv. Stop killing yourself with penalties. Figure out how to adapt to what they're doing to us. Play with discipline and attention to detail.

 

 

 

I suppose we shouldn't say the defense has excelled because they played two bottom third offenses going on three after Washington? That's not true. They really are this good. It doesn't work both ways 

 

 

 

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38 minutes ago, Bangarang said:


We got our butts handed to us because the o-line couldn’t block and the d-line couldn’t get pressure. That’s what actually happened. 

 

 

That's part of it, especially that last.  As far as the O-line, I would say Allen's aggressivness instead of taking what the D gave him and possibly the game plan (maybe by then it was too late for anything else) were strong contributors - not to be interpreted as saying the O-line wasn't a big factor, but I think the game plan and the read choices did  hang them out to dry a bit

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6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That's part of it, especially that last.  As far as the O-line, I would say Allen's aggressivness instead of taking what the D gave him and possibly the game plan (maybe by then it was too late for anything else) were strong contributors - not to be interpreted as saying the O-line wasn't a big factor, but I think the game plan and the read choices did  hang them out to dry a bit

Eh… Feliciano got ran over the entire game, regardless of Allen hanging onto the ball. 

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Just now, ScottLaw said:

Eh… Feliciano got ran over the entire game, regardless of Allen hanging onto the ball. 

 

If the Chiefs had to worry even a little bit about a run game and misdirection, Chris Jones couldn't pin his ears back and run over Feliciano.

 

If Allen were taking some of the short dump-offs, the ball would be gone before he got there.  I saw Singletary and sometimes Knox with enough green around them to plant a sod farm and harvest it.  Why?  Because it was on tape all season that Allen couldn't or wouldn't take those throws, so defend the guys he does seek.

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1 hour ago, NJKBillsfan said:

I haven't seen this mentioned yet, but is it possible that Allen was never really that good? Last year's schedule was pretty weak. Combine that with playing in front of no fans and I think it's entirely possible that last year could have been a fluke. 

 

 

 

 

 

I think 2019 is as low as Josh can go and that's good enough to certainly be a playoff QB. He's a talented player even when he's not making his reads. That said, I do think a lot is up for debate as far as if we just caught lightning in a bottle in 2020 and if he can be that type of player/we can be that type of offense. It's not as if teams were game planning for Josh outside of mobility last year, certainly not for the greatest show on turf offense. Teams blitzed us a lot last year, which is a huge mistake against Josh. It tips the coverage and minuses a defender that he usually matadors. He is being contained in the pocket. His sideline escape ropes are not as available. Teams are dropping a lot of players in coverage and using a base 4 man rush to sort of contain and crash the pocket. They aren't being as reckless with the rush. So far they are getting home. 

 

I think the solution is in the run game probably more than it is even Josh. I don't know if Josh was ever supposed to be like 2020. He's incredible out of playaction. It gives him natural timing. I posted this thread because you can see when a QB has a bad game or if it's a sign of something more serious in my opinion just based on how fast and decisive his reads are. Josh has been 100% indecisive thus far. Pat, pat, pat, back foot throw. Again, is it his fault if he's throwing into 7-8 players each down? Was the Daboll unbalanced air show supposed to last forever or does Josh and this team in general require more balance?  

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24 minutes ago, KzooMike said:

I was targeting data to make Allen look bad? Use your eyes as a starting point.

 

There are phenomena called "Recency Bias" and "Confirmation Bias" which are common fallacies.

 

The idea is that people have a conclusion, and then look for evidence that confirms their conclusion; they also look at what they've heard or seen recently, and weight it far more strongly than what they may have heard or seen in the past.

 

In other words, without context and care, our eyes can "trick" us.

 

I'm respectfully suggesting that may be at play here, at least to some extent.

 

 

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