Joe B's 53 man roster prediction

[LabattBlue]

PSA...consider reading all posts in a thread before going off the deep end. 
/end-psa

[DJB]

5 hours ago, Lagoon Blues said:

I just dont see Dawson Knox, Reggie Gilliam being the only TE's on the roster.

 

With those two listed I still don't see a single TE on the roster. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, Kwai San said:

Pretty solid work by Joe here.  It is behind the paywall......sorry - it IS worth it.  I copied the players has has making and the PS guys.  Really think his 53 is much better than any 53 we as fan boys can come up with as he sees them day in and day out.

 

https://theathletic.com/2790305/2021/08/26/bills-53-man-roster-projection-with-one-week-before-cuts-which-spots-are-still-up-in-the-air/

 

The Initial 53-Man Roster Projection

Quarterback (2): Josh Allen, Mitchell Trubisky

Running Back (3): Zack Moss, Devin Singletary, Matt Breida

Wide Receiver (8): Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Jake Kumerow, Marquez Stevenson, Isaiah Hodgins

Tight End/Fullback (2): Dawson Knox, Reggie Gilliam

Offensive Tackles (4): Dion Dawkins, Daryl Williams, Spencer Brown, Tommy Doyle

Interior Offensive Line (5): Mitch Morse, Jon Feliciano, Cody Ford, Ike Boettger, Ryan Bates

Defensive Ends (7): Jerry Hughes, Greg Rousseau, Mario Addison, A.J. Epenesa, Boogie Basham, Efe Obada, Darryl Johnson

Defensive Tackles (5): Ed Oliver, Star Lotulelei, Justin Zimmer, Harrison Phillips, Vernon Butler

Linebackers (5): Tremaine Edmunds, Matt Milano, A.J. Klein, Andre Smith, Tyler Matakevich

Cornerbacks (5): Tre’Davious White, Levi Wallace, Taron Johnson, Dane Jackson, Siran Neal

Safeties (4): Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Jaquan Johnson, Damar Hamlin

Specialists (3): K Tyler Bass, P Matt Haack, LS Reid Ferguson

 

Wow, this is a bit "Edgy" in several directions.

 

For reference, here is a Buffalo Rumblings article on 2020 53 man roster.

QB (3), RB (4 w/o Gilliam) WR (6) TE (4 incl Gilliam) OT (4 counting Ford) IOL (6 not counting Ford) DE (5) DT (4) LB (6) CB (5) S (3) Specialist (3)

 

So fundamentally, Joe B has the Bills loading up on WR (+2) and DL(+3) and going heavier on S(+1) at the expense of RB (-1), TE (-2), OL (-1), LB (-1) and the "free square" of not keeping an extra QB.

 

Basically, I think this is a little bit of a "cop out" by Joe; he sees an excess of talent at WR and DL and instead of making hard choices says "keep 'em all"

 

Notable or Controversial:

RB: the absence of ST Ace Gunner Taiwan Jones

WR: keeping 8 WR - I would say, Not Gonna Happen.  we kept 6 last year.  Hard choices will have to be made.

TE/FB - since Gilliam is a hybrid, keeping only 1 TE?  By FAR the Bills most common set last year was (1,1).  I don't see us moving 100% away from that, so Nope.

OT - it's possible that we keep only rookie OTs as backup, as Hart has looked on par, and both Bates and Ford can play T in a pinch.

DE and DT: it's again possible that we keep 7 DE, but that's going to go with keeping 4 DT and having Basham play DT at times.

LB: Last year we kept 6.  I know we predominantly stay in nickel, but since Matakevich and Smith are ST staples they're risking injury every ST snap, making Klein effectively the only reserve.

CB: Last year we kept 5, and it really wasn't enough at times.

[Punching Bag]

3 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Yeah he actually has some creative moves that Beane may use to save some talent.

 

3 hours ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

Ok that's cool . I was just looking at what his final 53 was and didn't have to click link for that.

 

Yea.  Another future GM who was a member of media.

 

Matt Millen actually lasted a lot longer than some GMs with experience.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

From the article:

 

Re-sign RB Taiwan Jones and TE Jake Hollister

Now to the roster madness. This is a move Beane loves using at final cuts. He identifies vested veterans — players with over four accrued years of NFLservice or more — near the middle to bottom of the roster, on the final year of their contracts and without a ton of guaranteed money owed. Vested veterans do not need to pass through waivers and may immediately sign wherever they choose. Beane releases them initially, gives them some money for their trouble and re-signs them to give his team flexibility. In this case, it’s with the injuries to McKenzie and Phillips. That small move with Jones and Hollister would keep McKenzie and Phillips available to return off IR this year while keeping on two other younger players they otherwise would have had to cut. Jones has $700,000 guaranteed this year, and Hollister only has $137,500 guaranteed, according to OverTheCap.com. Upon their re-signing, it’s fair to expect their new contracts would be close to fully guaranteed for the season with a nice little signing bonus.

 

I guess this could work, cutting us down to 7 WR and 4 DT and bopping us back up to 3 TE and 4 RB.

 

I thought Hollister wasn't vested, but looking him up again, he likely is.

 

It depends upon how close they believe McKenzie and Phillips, are though. 

 

If they go on IR, they have to stay there at least 3 games.  If McDermott is correct that they are working within the timeline of 2-ish weeks, and there are 2.4 weeks before the season opener, he might not want to lose them to IR for 3 games.

 

The other thing there is, if they IR McKenzie for 3 games, are they counting on Stevenson to hold down the KR/PR duties, when he's just off an injury himself?  And why Hodgins on the roster?  He's spent a long time in the preseason not practicing, why does he get a roster spot and not PS?  Does Joe B think teams around the league are gonna be slavering after him?

 

I still think Joe B got a bit too cute with this.

[Logic]

It is clear reading through the replies that many (not all) here either didn't read (understandable, since it's behind a pay wall) or didn't understand the article.

As Joe B explained, many of the initial "cuts" are nothing more than Beane making use of the rule that allows him to cut 4-year vested veterans without subjecting them to waivers. He then puts several players on IR from the "initial 53-man roster" and uses those open spots to bring back Hollister, Jones, etc.

Beane has used this roster trick before and will likely do so again.

He does NOT have Hollister or Jones as true cuts, or other seemingly head scratching things. It's all roster gymnastics.

Edited August 26, 2021 by Logic

[Patrick Duffy]

7 minutes ago, Logic said:

It is clear reading through the replies that many (not all) here either didn't read (understandable, since it's behind a pay wall) or didn't understand the article.

As Joe B explained, many of the initial "cuts" are nothing more than Beane making use of the rule that allows him to cut 4-year vested veterans without subjecting them to waivers. He then puts several players on IR from the "initial 53-man roster" and uses those open spots to bring back Hollister, Jones, etc.

Beane has used this roster trick before and will likely do so again.

He does NOT have Hollister or Jones as true cuts, or other seemingly head scratching things. It's all roster gymnastics.

I didn't read, but after seeing the bold I can make some sense with it now. The itch on my head no longer needs scratching. I was going by only that list that was posted in OP assuming it was his final roster prediction and nothing else to it. 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, Kwai San said:

 

If all you did were to read the roster and not the story I can easily see your point.  If you read the story and his reasoning it is sound and makes a lot of sense.  That coupled with the fact he gets the eye test almost each and every day AND gets to talk to the players and coaches he has a much better feel for who should be in and show might be out than the average TBD'er.  Just saying......

 

I didn't read the article. But I have heard his Athletic podcast where I imagine a lot of his reasoning is similar.

[DCbillsfan]

3 hours ago, Logic said:

It is clear reading through the replies that many (not all) here either didn't read (understandable, since it's behind a pay wall) or didn't understand the article.

As Joe B explained, many of the initial "cuts" are nothing more than Beane making use of the rule that allows him to cut 4-year vested veterans without subjecting them to waivers. He then puts several players on IR from the "initial 53-man roster" and uses those open spots to bring back Hollister, Jones, etc.

Beane has used this roster trick before and will likely do so again.

He does NOT have Hollister or Jones as true cuts, or other seemingly head scratching things. It's all roster gymnastics.

Spot on.  This is an initial 53 man roster projection by Joe B to protect younger players.  This is not the 53 man roster projection for week 1 against the Steelers.  Big difference.  Beane could very well add players cut from other teams or do a trade or two.  There will be a flurry of activity next week.

[DCbillsfan]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

And why Hodgins on the roster?  He's spent a long time in the preseason not practicing, why does he get a roster spot and not PS?  Does Joe B think teams around the league are gonna be slavering after him?

 

I'll take a stab at Hodgins making the roster. 

 

He was a 2020 6th rd pick and we know Beane loves his draft picks.  Beane has a large number of his draft picks still on the team.  He cut Austin Proehl, the LB from Florida ( forget his name), traded away Wyatt Teller, and cut Ray Ray McCloud.  I'm pretty sure the rest of his picks are still on the roster.

 

Hodgins had a strong camp last year.  Reporters were talking about him left and right last year.  Similar to how they're talking about Kumerow this year.

 

They may IR Hodgins but they want him in the fold so to speak in case another WR gets hurt.  The WRs got beat up last year and I believe they will want more WRs.  

 

I don't think you can put Hodgins on the PS.  I think a team with a weak roster will snag him.  

 

Stability.  Sanders and McKenzie are on 1 year deals.  Beasley will have one more year left.  I believe Kumerow is on a 1 year deal.  Hodgins would still have 2 years left after this season on a rookie contract.

 

As we all know now, 3 of the top 6 receivers are not vaccinated.  The Bills will want to have as many contingencies as possible.

Edited August 27, 2021 by DCbillsfan

[Victory Formation]

I’m sorry, but with no Hollister, this list has no credibility. And 8 WRs? I don’t even care to read the rest of this list.

[Jerboski]

What happened to Forrest lamp?

[djp14150]

6 hours ago, BillsFanThru-N-Thru said:

Exactly!!  He expects the Bills to cut some vested veterans with the intent of bringing them back once the 53 roster is set and they can place people on IR so that they can come back sometime this season.  I foresee that happening also. Beane doesn't want to lose future potential talent for the team if he can get them onto IR and figuring out what to do during the season.

by that logic…some of the players protected can be cut and resigned like Kumerow 

[DCbillsfan]

7 minutes ago, Jerboski said:

What happened to Forrest lamp?

Put on IR

[WickedGame]

Only keeping two TEs because we’re getting Zach Ertz, right? 😏

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, DJB said:

 

With those two listed I still don't see a single TE on the roster. 

 

Harsh viewpoint.  But has merit.

1 hour ago, WickedGame said:

Only keeping two TEs because we’re getting Zach Ertz, right? 😏

 

You, Sir, are a Bad Man.  A Bad, Bad Man.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

I’m sorry, but with no Hollister, this list has no credibility. And 8 WRs? I don’t even care to read the rest of this list.

 

It turns out part of Joe B's idea is that the Bills will cut Hollister and Taiwan Jones on a hand shake deal to bring them back, then IR Harrison Phillips and Isaiah McKenzie to make room for them and re-sign them.

 

Now the Bills have done something like this before - I believe last year they cut Roberts on a handshake deal and brought him back after the IR'd Tommy Sweeney. 

 

I can't exclude the idea that Buscaglia may have inside info about McKenzie and Phillips injury and know that they need prolonged recovery.  But we're still 2 weeks out from the regular season, and the IR rules are that the player must miss a minimum of 3 regular-season games (not 3 weeks).

 

Right now I believe the Bills public statement from McDermott is that they're not that long term - something like two weeks.  We're 2 weeks out from the season opener.  So IR'ing them would make sense if we think they've got a 5 or 6 week injury

 

But in that case, with McKenzie out, I can't believe that the Bills would leave the rookie Stevenson who has reportedly been a mixed bag in practice, as the only PR/KR option on the roster.  I would expect them to keep Powell.

 

There's also the point that is Hodgins even practicing yet?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, DCbillsfan said:

I'll take a stab at Hodgins making the roster. 

 

He was a 2020 6th rd pick and we know Beane loves his draft picks.  Beane has a large number of his draft picks still on the team.  He cut Austin Proehl, the LB from Florida ( forget his name), traded away Wyatt Teller, and cut Ray Ray McCloud.  I'm pretty sure the rest of his picks are still on the roster.

 

Vosean Joseph.

 

Another way to look at it is that 3 late round picks from 2018 are no longer on the roster (Teller, McCloud, Proehl); one from 2019 (Vosean Joseph) is gone and Tommy Sweeney may be IR'd again (which would almost certainly see him cut next year) or waived/injured, which would make 2; Jake Fromm is predicted to be cut from 2020.

 

I don't think we can conclude that Beane will keep a guy just because he was a draft pick.

 

What has Hodgins done that makes him seem so valuable to take a roster spot?  Did he even have a reception in the Lions game before he left, injured?

He just returned from injury this week, but we have no word on whether he's considered conditioned or recovered enough to play Saturday?  Have we heard anything about him in practice?  Is he even taking 1:1 or 11 on 11 drills yet?

 

Quote

Hodgins had a strong camp last year.  Reporters were talking about him left and right last year. 

(...)

I don't think you can put Hodgins on the PS.  I think a team with a weak roster will snag him. 

 

Maybe.  But "That was Then, This is Now."  I think we as fans always tend to overvalue our bottom of the roster guys, while to the rest of the league there's a new crop of talented WR coming out this season who haven't been on IR last year and injured most of camp this year.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, djp14150 said:

by that logic…some of the players protected can be cut and resigned like Kumerow 

 

I don't think Kumerow can be cut and re-signed on a "handshake deal".  He would have to go through waivers, and seems very likely someone would claim him.

He only has 3 years where he's played in NFL games, and I'm not sure he was even active enough games for all of those 3 years to count as accrued seasons (need 6 games I think, in 2018 he had 5).  And you need 4 accrued seasons to not be subject to waivers.

 

Pretty sure waivers works on accrued and not credited seasons.  Very sure someone will set me straight if I'm wrong

[DCbillsfan]

5 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

What has Hodgins done that makes him seem so valuable to take a roster spot?  Did he even have a reception in the Lions game before he left, injured?

He just returned from injury this week, but we have no word on whether he's considered conditioned or recovered enough to play Saturday?  Have we heard anything about him in practice?  Is he even taking 1:1 or 11 on 11 drills yet?

 

 

Maybe.  But "That was Then, This is Now."  I think we as fans always tend to overvalue our bottom of the roster guys, while to the rest of the league there's a new crop of talented WR coming out this season who haven't been on IR last year and injured most of camp this year.

 

Perhaps you're right about Hodgins being cut and possibly being signed to the PS.  As a fan, I remember last year how beat up they were at the WR position and am looking at ways to bolster that position.