You're facing the Buffalo Bills in the 2020 playoffs...what's your game plan?

[Success]

2 hours ago, TPS said:

As I posted in the prediction thread, I think Reich pulls a Parcells-Belichick from the Bills first Super Bowl.  Ball control to keep Bills O off the field. INdy has the run game to do that.  The Bills O needs to start hot and score early to force them out of it. 

 

That SB was my 1st thought.  

 

And that's my worst fear as a Bills fan:  TOP.  If they can get the run game going and grind out long drives, it can disrupt the Bills and keep their best unit off the field.

 

[GunnerBill]

It isn't that different to the gameplan I gave you to beat the Bills before the season. On offense lots of inside zone running, heavy play action, don't throw at Tre White's side of the field. The team that actually best executed it was the Rams in the second half of that game week 3 when they nearly won despite a huge deficit at one point. 

 

On defense I think it is trickier than it was pre-season because of the Allen - Diggs connection. I still think you have to be relatively disciplined with your pressue and relatively exotic with your coverage. The Titans game earlier in the season was the example of a team who just confused Josh enough that he held onto the ball for longer and missed plays that were there. The problem is when the Steelers managed to confuse him some later in the year with good disguise on the backend his response was "screw the coverage I'm just going to throw to Diggs and trust my guy." And boy did that work! I didn't think on the face of it the Patriots plan was bad either. Play 6 or 7 defensive backs and keep them deep really try and force the Bills to run it, but the plan Daboll had to attack the perimeter and force their corners to come up and cover the shallow zones was brilliant and it really made it hard. Ultimately I think I'd go with the exotic looks on the backend, plenty of 4 man rush with some limited blitzing up front. That means I'm not just going to double Diggs or double Smoke but I'm going to make it so that whoever Josh thinks is doubled when he goes to the line is not the guy I'm actually keying in on and by the time he realises who is 1 on 1 he is under pressure to let the ball go and can't be on the money. 

 

I don't think my defensive plan can stop the Bills. But my calculation is it might be able to slow them just enough that if my offense can dominate the time of possession and the clock I can keep Josh to 8 or maximum 9 drives and limit him to scoring on half of them. That keeps the Bills somewhere between 20 and 28 and I think I might be in the ball game. 

 

I think the only team who can do something different to that and hope to succeed is the Chiefs. Who at their best offensively could just play toe to toe and get into a shoot out and I mean like the famous Rams and Chiefs game type shoot out where it is just whoever has the ball last. But for any of the other AFC playoff teams that is my blueprint. You also have to play good special teams, not turn the ball over and limit penalties and mistakes. It isn't easy, the Bills are a tough out. But that is my plan. 

[H2o]

24 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

How did that work for Miami and Seattle? Allen has been the most pressured and blitzed QB in the NFL this year.  Yeah, you can get to him a few times maybe, but especially lately the pass protection has ben swallowing up blitzes to the point Allen still has all day to throw.  But the majority of the time he is going to carve you up like a Thanksgiving turkey if you try this.  Colts are not a pressure team.  They like trying to create pressure with their front 4 and playing zone behind it. Good luck with that.  Honestly, good luck with anything.  Allen has basically destroyed any type of coverage put in front of him designed by some of the best defensive minds in the NFL.

I mean, what can you do against this team? I mean REALLY, what can you do against this team? The Colts aren't a high-octane offense. They're not going to be able to score with us. The topic was what's your game plan. This is their only hope, along with hoping they can string together four 6 minute+ drives that all end in TD's. 

[Royale with Cheese]

36 minutes ago, teef said:

exactly.  maybe more of a windmill motion, but you get the idea.

 

Guess what I'm eating for lunch later today?

[That's No Moon]

45 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

 
I said the same thing above— but the reality is that it’s not going to work. Even against 6 and 7 DB sets playing zone coverage, the Bills have been carving up teams through the air. The Colts weakness is their pass defense.  They could probably put 11 DB’s out there and it wouldn’t matter. 

Which is why you try to get them to want to run the ball.  Give them looks that scream "run the ball".   Even if the Bills average 5 yards a carry it still slows them down compared to giving up 10-15 per pass completion with stopped clocks on incompletions.

 

I don't think Indy has the horses (no pun intended) to get pressure without blitzing and blitzing Allen is a very risky proposition and you run the serious risk of getting yourself behind quickly to the point that your own offensive gameplan is no longer viable.  Make the Bills play 60 minutes of mistake free football to beat you.  Make them execute and score touchdowns on the few possessions you are going to allow them to have.  Every time you hold them to a FG or less that's a win.  I don't see a scenario where Indy just comes out and pitches a shutout no matter what they do on defense so whatever their plan is it has to be based around the idea of protecting their own offense which is run oriented (despite P-Riv quietly throwing for 4k yards and 24 TDs this year).  They do not likely want to play a 41-38 game with Buffalo so what are the most likely ways of getting that to succeed?  I look at this as a SB25 type defensive gameplan.  Mitigate the damage, make the opposition play mistake free, encourage them to do what they don't do as well and don't let them build up offensive momentum to just wipe you off the face of the Earth.

[Big Turk]

10 minutes ago, H2o said:

I mean, what can you do against this team? I mean REALLY, what can you do against this team? The Colts aren't a high-octane offense. They're not going to be able to score with us. The topic was what's your game plan. This is their only hope, along with hoping they can string together four 6 minute+ drives that all end in TD's. 

 

Not to mention that the Bills D is actually better playing at a higher level than the Colts D since our bye...teams are not going to score a lot of points on us until its garbage time and we trade clock for points.

8 minutes ago, That's No Moon said:

Which is why you try to get them to want to run the ball.  Give them looks that scream "run the ball".   Even if the Bills average 5 yards a carry it still slows them down compared to giving up 10-15 per pass completion with stopped clocks on incompletions.

 

I don't think Indy has the horses (no pun intended) to get pressure without blitzing and blitzing Allen is a very risky proposition and you run the serious risk of getting yourself behind quickly to the point that your own offensive gameplan is no longer viable.  Make the Bills play 60 minutes of mistake free football to beat you.  Make them execute and score touchdowns on the few possessions you are going to allow them to have.  Every time you hold them to a FG or less that's a win.  I don't see a scenario where Indy just comes out and pitches a shutout no matter what they do on defense so whatever their plan is it has to be based around the idea of protecting their own offense which is run oriented (despite P-Riv quietly throwing for 4k yards and 24 TDs this year).  They do not likely want to play a 41-38 game with Buffalo so what are the most likely ways of getting that to succeed?  I look at this as a SB25 type defensive gameplan.  Mitigate the damage, make the opposition play mistake free, encourage them to do what they don't do as well and don't let them build up offensive momentum to just wipe you off the face of the Earth.

 

But that isn't going to work either....the Bills tied for 2nd in the NFL in scoring drives of 10 plays or more this year with 40....Colts are one the teams they are tied with ironically...Cowboys surprisingly led the league with 41.

Edited January 6, 2021 by Big Turk

[GunnerBill]

33 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

How did that work for Miami and Seattle? Allen has been the most pressured and blitzed QB in the NFL this year.  Yeah, you can get to him a few times maybe, but especially lately the pass protection has ben swallowing up blitzes to the point Allen still has all day to throw.  But the majority of the time he is going to carve you up like a Thanksgiving turkey if you try this.  Colts are not a pressure team.  They like trying to create pressure with their front 4 and playing zone behind it. Good luck with that.  Honestly, good luck with anything.  Allen has basically destroyed any type of coverage put in front of him designed by some of the best defensive minds in the NFL.

 

Yea do not blitz him a lot. Blitzing him means play more 1 on 1 behind that and you can't cover all the Bills guys. Maybe Baltimore with their secondary is the only team where I might feel comfortable blitzing. I don't want Josh rushed into throwing early. I want to confuse him and make him hold it. That is when I think you actually get more of his mistakes. When he holds the ball and the internal clock starts to go off and he throws out of time. The pick early on Sunday was that. I think you have to try and confuse him with coverage. Disguise, disguise, disguise. He will figure it out eventually and the Bills will score... but can you hold them under 30 by getting him off the field 4 times and control the clock so he only has 8 drives? If you can then you have a shot. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

2 hours ago, eball said:

It struck me recently that teams facing the Bills have a pretty huge dilemma.  Since their bye week the Bills have had the best offense in the league, a top ten defense, and top five special teams unit.

 

A -- what's your plan to come into Orchard Park and walk out with a W?

B -- even if the team executes your plan, do you still need something "crazy" to happen?

 

Discuss.

The Bills are the first/second most pass happy team in the league, and are 22nd running the ball in DVOA. 

 

Seems like you'd drop as many into coverage as you can, and mimic the Bills 2-high shell to prevent big plays. 

 

Take your chances with Allen's leg's and Moss/Singletary, who aren't game breaking RB's. Yes, you might concede pass rush, but Allen hasn't been phased by that this year anyways. 

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

The Bills are the first/second most pass happy team in the league, and are 22nd running the ball in DVOA. 

 

Seems like you'd drop as many into coverage as you can, and mimic the Bills 2-high shell to prevent big plays. 

 

Take your chances with Allen's leg's and Moss/Singletary, who aren't game breaking RB's. Yes, you might concede pass rush, but Allen hasn't been phased by that this year anyways. 

 

Bills lead the NFL in passing on first downs at 64%...after all the years we were run, run, pass, this has seemed like we have entered the Twilight Zone

Edited January 6, 2021 by Big Turk

[That's No Moon]

1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

 

Not to mention that the Bills D is actually better playing at a higher level than the Colts D since our bye...teams are not going to score a lot of points on us until its garbage time and we trade clock for points.

 

But that isn't going to work either....the Bills led the NFL in scoring drives of 10 plays or more this year.

There isn't a binary work/does not work option.  You have to play the odds. Blitzing can work if you can confuse the offense and get free runners but it also exposes your backend quite a bit.  Pittsburgh and Miami come to mind as teams that had some success early in the game but then the Bills adjusted and tore them apart.  If you are Indy and your plan is to gamble then on the offensive side they REALLY need to score early and a couple of times to put pressure on the Bills offense because once they figure out what you are doing they've been taking people to the woodshed.

 

I'm not going to fall into the trap of saying there is nothing that can stop an offense.  We've all seen amazing offenses get stymied.  It certainly helps that the Bills have played several good defenses already this year and have seen lots and lots of different types of ways to attack them.  

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Big Turk said:

 

Bills lead the NFL in passing on first downs at 64%

 

Something I think really matters. In the NFL the easiest down to pass on is first down. Whoever your QB is. When you have a great one it is even more effective. All those years of run, run, pass, punt. Lord alive they wound me up. 

[Nihilarian]

2 hours ago, Buffalo Boy said:

     The only way to beat the Bills is for the D line to consistently pressure Josh in less than two seconds with four or less rushers. We haven’t seen this yet.

This!

 

We did see it against the Steelers and in the first quarter or so the Bills had no answer for DT Cameron Heyward. Then the Bills started to double him and this gave Allen much more time to throw. 

 

If Allen has time to throw and his receivers get open it's gonna go well.

 

Although, the Colts are no slouch as they have both a top ten offense and defense. Plus their O line is one of the best with two pro bowlers and the defense with pro bowl MLB Darius Leonard.

 

Hopefully a good outcome for the Bills

[teef]

15 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Guess what I'm eating for lunch later today?

a salad with dressing on the side?

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Nihilarian said:

This!

 

We did see it against the Steelers and in the first quarter or so the Bills had no answer for DT Cameron Heyward. Then the Bills started to double him and this gave Allen much more time to throw. 

 

If Allen has time to throw and his receivers get open it's gonna go well.

 

Although, the Colts are no slouch as they have both a top ten offense and defense. Plus their O line is one of the best with two pro bowlers and the defense with pro bowl MLB Darius Leonard.

 

Hopefully a good outcome for the Bills

 

The key to what the Steelers did was confuse Josh with coverage and take away the quick throws. That allowed Heyward to get pressure. You are right the Bills double teamed him but the other thing they did after half time was noticeably say to Josh "it doesn't matter what the coverage is.... just trust Stef and throw to him." That is what a Stefon Diggs does. He gives you a counter punch even against a D that is doing everything right. That forced the Steelers to get a bit more basic on D and suddenly everything was open. That is the difference between the Bills offense now and last year for me. We have an answer. Last year when teams were stopping us we couldn't find a way out. Whatever is tried this year we seem to have that counter punch. Part of that is the growth of Josh, part of it is having an elite playmaker and part of it is our pass pro has generally been very good. 

[Big Turk]

Something interesting to note...

 

In Weeks 1-8, Colts were 2nd best in the NFL at preventing teams from having long 10+ play drives only allowing 10. 

Bills were among the worst, allowing 25 such drives in the same timespan. 

 

In weeks 9-17(2nd half of the year), the Bills actually have allowed fewer of these drives than the Colts.

Colts have allowed 15, Bills 14.

Bills D has really turned it on.

Additionally, HALF of these long drives have occurred in the 2nd half with the Bills up by up by an average of 18.3 points meaning many were basically garbage time scores the Bills allowed to trade clock for points.

 

Additionally, only 1 team has scored more than 13 points in the 1st half the entire season, and that was Tennessee with 21. 12 of the games, the opponent has scored 10 points or less.  Indianapolis is in trouble if they let the Bills roll up points in the first half because they will likely be down big.

 

 

Edited January 6, 2021 by Big Turk

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

Probably do what the Giants did to the Bills offense in the super bowl. Force the Bills to run the football at all cost and keep the game close. If Indy can force 1 or 2 turnovers they might be able to pull it off.

If we don’t play the Ravens this will be the best defense that we will probably see the rest of the way.

[Big Turk]

4 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

Probably do what the Giants did to the Bills offense in the super bowl. Force the Bills to run the football at all cost and keep the game close. If Indy can force 1 or 2 turnovers they might be able to pull it off.

 

They don't have several future HOF players to pull that off.

21 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

This!

 

We did see it against the Steelers and in the first quarter or so the Bills had no answer for DT Cameron Heyward. Then the Bills started to double him and this gave Allen much more time to throw. 

 

If Allen has time to throw and his receivers get open it's gonna go well.

 

Although, the Colts are no slouch as they have both a top ten offense and defense. Plus their O line is one of the best with two pro bowlers and the defense with pro bowl MLB Darius Leonard.

 

Hopefully a good outcome for the Bills

 

Colts defensive stats are a little misleading...they were very good in the first half of the year and not that great in the second. Bills D has actually been better in the 2nd half of the year than the Colts.

Edited January 6, 2021 by Big Turk

[That's No Moon]

4 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Pittsburgh did an excellent job in confusing Allen for the majority of the first half..... they had an opportunity to take a pretty good lead into half but their offense was abysmal and the Bills offense eventually figured ***** out. 

This is exactly what I'm talking about.  If Pittsburgh's own offense was able to get it's head out of its arse in the first half that game looks way different.  FWIW, the Bills were down 0-3 after the first quarter last Sunday against Miami, had an INT and 2 punts and a grand total of like 42 yards of offense.  They mess around on Saturday and do that and Indy goes up 14 zip while running the ball down their throat and with Rivers hitting play action to TY and Pittman and lots of sphincters will be puckering.

 

One thing I am legit worried about is the Bills coming out too amped up because there will be some people there for the first time. They don't need to do anything different, they just need to play the way they've played.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

5 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

They don't have several future HOF players to pull that off.

 

Colts defensive stats are a little misleading...they were very good in the first half of the year and not that great in the second. Bills D has actually been better in the 2nd half of the year than the Colts.

They might not have the HOF  players but it’s their only chance.

[quinnearlysghost88]

Nice try, Frank