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2020 MVP Race - Has Mahomes been incredibly lucky?


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Watching his game against the Falcons, I could not believe his luck with two sure interceptions floored. So I google “Mahomes dropped interceptions” and whoa - here is what I find (16 dropped INTs on the season!!!)

 

https://www.newsbreak.com/news/2134267854748/patrick-mahomes-sets-ignominious-nfl-record

 

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If half of the dropped INTs from Mahomes had been completed, he likely wouldn't be in the MVP conversation. But thanks to some fortuitous drops, he's still in the driver's seat to pick up plenty more hardware this year.

 

And Allen has had just the opposite - with INTs being called on catches made by TEs.

 

PS: This is not to piss on Mahomes, who is an otherworldly talent - but the article does show that Mahomes’ stats are a wee bit inflated. Several dropped INT drives have ended in TDs thrown by Mahomes (like today). 

 

Hope MVP voters see this and take it into account.

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7 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Allen plays well these next two weeks (now that they will have to play week 17). I personally thinks he locks up the MVP. 

Agree. I would think 8 total tds would almost surefire Josh as the MVP...min of 4.  Allen with 38, prior to MNF, Mahomes with 40 after today.

 

mahomes has about 800 yards on Josh, which is why I think he needs to surpass Mahomes by at least 2-3 tds.  Also Mahomes with fewer turnovers, albeit some fortunate as mentioned.  

 

Given Mahomes notoriety and Chiefs record, it will be tough but doable.  

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8 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Watching his game against the Falcons, I could not believe his luck with two sure interceptions floored. So I google “Mahomes dropped interceptions” and whoa - here is what I find (16 dropped INTs on the season!!!)

 

https://www.newsbreak.com/news/2134267854748/patrick-mahomes-sets-ignominious-nfl-record

 

 

And Allen has had just the opposite - with INTs being called on catches made by TEs.

 

PS: This is not to piss on Mahomes, who is an otherworldly talent - but the article does show that Mahomes’ stats are a wee bit inflated. Several dropped INT drives have ended in TDs thrown by Mahomes (like today). 

 

Hope MVP voters see this and take it into account.

 

As I think others have pointed out...need to know how many INTs other QBs have had dropped.  I can think of a few on Rodgers, Wilson, and yep Allen

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5 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Allen plays well these next two weeks (now that they will have to play week 17). I personally thinks he locks up the MVP. 

I have not yet looked up 2020 stats - but INTS and Dropprd INTs track reasonably well. Here are the 2019 stats - only one high volume QB - Carson Wentz - had more dropped INTs than INTs - Allen was 9 INTS to 3 Dropped INTs last year - so Mahomes’ 6 INTs and 16 Dropped INTs is incredibly lucky!!!

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/adjusted-interceptions-2019

5 minutes ago, JoPoy88 said:

That’s a good find thanks for posting but it would be a bit more helpful if the author would have posted some comparison numbers. I get that the 16 is a new record but I’d like to see how big an outlier that number actually is.

 

fair point about the need for a bench mark - see 2019 stats in the link here

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/adjusted-interceptions-2019

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1 minute ago, MasterStrategist said:

Agree. I would think 8 total tds would almost surefire Josh as the MVP...min of 4.  Allen with 38, prior to MNF, Mahomes with 40 after today.

 

mahomes has about 800 yards on Josh, which is why I think he needs to surpass Mahomes by at least 2-3 tds.  Also Mahomes with fewer turnovers, albeit some fortunate as mentioned.  

 

Given Mahomes notoriety and Chiefs record, it will be tough but doable.  

Imo it is in the Name. MVP. Chiefs are LOADED. They are expected to do this. Bills were not thought about as a team they are. Neither was Allen. Add in the POTW and there is more accolades for the “lesser” Allen. 
 

both Allen and McD should win their End of Year Honors. 

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1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

Imo it is in the Name. MVP. Chiefs are LOADED. They are expected to do this. Bills were not thought about as a team they are. Neither was Allen. Add in the POTW and there is more accolades for the “lesser” Allen. 
 

both Allen and McD should win their End of Year Honors. 

Hope so, agree both are well deserving.  I think Josh needs to finish really strong, then we shall see

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15 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Watching his game against the Falcons, I could not believe his luck with two sure interceptions floored. So I google “Mahomes dropped interceptions” and whoa - here is what I find (16 dropped INTs on the season!!!)

 

https://www.newsbreak.com/news/2134267854748/patrick-mahomes-sets-ignominious-nfl-record

 

 

And Allen has had just the opposite - with INTs being called on catches made by TEs.

 

PS: This is not to piss on Mahomes, who is an otherworldly talent - but the article does show that Mahomes’ stats are a wee bit inflated. Several dropped INT drives have ended in TDs thrown by Mahomes (like today). 

 

Hope MVP voters see this and take it into account.

Why do you want Allen to win MVP?

 

When was the last MVP winner also the winner of a Super Bowl?

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Rodgers deserves the MVP and I feel confidant that he’ll get it as long as he doesn’t stink it up the next two days.  He’s playing with Adams, Jones and bums.  He made it so Robert Tonyan was a pro bowl “snub”.  I feel that if mahomes or Allen played with Rodgers’ playmakers, they wouldn’t be as good as AR has been this year.  
 

The Bills used their first rd pick on Diggs.  The packers used their pick on ARs replacement.  The packers were deemed “lucky” last season and not seen as a true contender.  As they sit with the #1 seed.  

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7 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Why do you want Allen to win MVP?

 

When was the last MVP winner also the winner of a Super Bowl?

I am excited when Bills players win hardware. You aren’t?

 

you appear to think they are mutually exclusive

 

Off hand I can think of 3 - Kurt Warner, Steve Young and Emmitt Smith

 

Edit: It is quite common - has happened 10 times before - though not during the Patriots dominance era - which likely made you think they were mutually exclusive

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Associated_Press_NFL_Most_Valuable_Player_Award

 

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Only ten players have won the Super Bowl and MVP in the same season, Bart Starr in 1966, Terry Bradshaw in 1978, Mark Moseley in 1982, Lawrence Taylor in 1986, Joe Montana in 1989, Emmitt Smith in 1993, Steve Young in 1994, Brett Favre in 1996 Terrell Davis in 1998 and Kurt Warner in 1999.

 

Edited by IgotBILLStopay
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36 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Let’s not be blinded by our own bias here: Allen has had plenty of potential pics dropped, too. 
 

16 is a lot, for sure. 

see 2019 stats above. 6 INTs and 16 Dropped INTs is quite quite rare. FWIW, in 2019 ALLEN had 3 dropped INTs against 9 INTs.

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