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The End of the Lamar Jackson Era


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9 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

28 pages in, and we're still stuck on these points. I just don't get it, but we all have our hills to die on. The other stuff has been discussed countless times across this thread.

 

We can't wait to rake Lamar over the coals when he loses to the Chiefs or undefeated Steelers (they were in it until the final play), but expect patience and understanding when our own QB is in a slump, losing to two elite teams, eeking out wins against the lowly Jets and Patriots, and struggling against zone coverage. It's also strange that the explosive runs we saw in 18 and 19 aren't happening this year.

 

I wonder if the talking heads will pick up the "Has Josh Allen reverted to form? " takes if we lose big to the Seahawks...

 

Yeah, this thread ran longer than I'd ever expected, and then someone brought it back for a second run.  

 

For the record, I never intended to bury Jackson this week or this month.  I was talking about the trajectory of his career.

 

I think Jackson is great at what he does.  I just don't think any team can enjoy long-term success playing like that, and I think we've already begun to see that he's reaching the plateau from which his gradual decline will begin.  Just like Newton and Vick plateaued and declined.  When your offense depends on the QB running, your passing game suffers, and when your passing game suffers, your offense is too limited to win consistently.  Unless Jackson can morph into a version of Russell Wilson or Drew Brees, and he hasn't shown much ability to do that yet, he is not going to be one of the top QBs for the next decade. 

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There are running QBs who have been successful but they also got better passing as their career progressed.

NFL actually has made it easier on running QBs with more holding allowed by OL and more protected areas not allowed to be hit although the zebras will allow on same type of play defenses to hit "running" QBs more than they do "pocket" QBs.

 

 

 

 

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On 11/2/2020 at 11:06 PM, Warcodered said:

Is it though? Throwing into a window where the defenders were able to sandwich the guy like that seems to me he was trying to force it to a guy that was pretty well covered.

Very true. But I’ve seen the WR make the play in that situation too. Just think it’s a fine line between narratives 

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4 minutes ago, MJS said:

Pretty premature to say Jackson has been regressing.

 

I do think that every running QB is going to have to progress as a passer in order to stick in this league long-term. Sooner or later defenses will figure out how to contain you and you will HAVE to beat them from the pocket. But Jackson has thrown it well in games before, and there's no reason to think he can't in the future.

I think I've said he's plateaued, not regressing.  

 

And yes, he will HAVE to beat teams from the pocket.  That's what I said.  Whether he's done it before on occasion isn't the point.   Watch him play and ask yourself where Jackson is in terms of progress toward being an excellent pocket passer, a guy who can consistently beat you from the pocket.   I think an honest evaluation of Jackson is that he is way behind Mahomes for sure, and behind Allen, and I think there's a good argument that he's behind Watson, Prescott, Wentz, and even Burrow and Herbert.  I think Tua is way over-hyped, but there's a good chance he's better, or soon will be, better in the pocket than Jackson.   Create any list you want, I think there are a half-dozen young QBs in the league who are showing much better progress than Jackson in becoming master pocket passers. 

 

And Jackson's progress as a pocket passer is going to be limited until he's asked to play in an offense that demands that he be a good pocket passer.   That's what the Bills have done to Allen.   Sure, they still look to Allen to contribute to the running game, but the message has been clear from his rookie season that the Bills wanted him in the pocket, throwing the football.   The result has been that he's learned and made progress at it.  Jackson, on the other hand, is playing in an offense that doesn't give him the opportunity, play after play, to be the kind of QB who will dissect defenses by throwing the ball all over the field.   If his coaches aren't demanding that he play that way, he won't develop.  Why aren't the coaches demanding that Jackson play out of the pocket?    Because he can't throw like Mahomes and Allen and Watson and Prescott and Herbert, that's why.  And that's why he wasn't taken in the top 10 of the draft.  

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What is the point of this?  To tear down a 23 year old MVP, Heisman winner, who is 24-5 as a starter (qb win-loss record is overrated but still), who has a 54 td to 13 int ratio, in addition to 2,300 yards rushing and 13 tds? 
 

seriously, you just come across as a hater and it’s a bad look.  And it really serves no purpose.

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45 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think Jackson is great at what he does.  I just don't think any team can enjoy long-term success playing like that, and I think we've already begun to see that he's reaching the plateau from which his gradual decline will begin.  Just like Newton and Vick plateaued and declined.  When your offense depends on the QB running, your passing game suffers, and when your passing game suffers, your offense is too limited to win consistently.  Unless Jackson can morph into a version of Russell Wilson or Drew Brees, and he hasn't shown much ability to do that yet, he is not going to be one of the top QBs for the next decade. 

 

A couple of things...

 

1.) Defensive play continues to decline across the league. Right now,. the Dolphins are #1, allowing 18 PPG. The best numbers in 2005, 2010 and 2015 were 12.6, 14.5 and 17. The "defenses will figure great players out" narrative simply isn't as impactful as it was even a decade ago.

 

2.) They have won consistently. Lamar holds one of the best, if not the best, W/L records of ANY modern NFL QB since he became a starter. This is not a case of a team sneaking into a wild card slot, they have been one of the NFL"s elite teams since he took the job. That team was trash, with Harbaugh on the chopping block, and he immediately gets them into the playoffs and follows it up with a MVP, #1 seed season. Yes, he needs a few more big wins on his resume, but he has already beat an undefeated Tom Brady, Russel Wilson and Deshaun Watson.

 

3.) There are NFL players who sometimes have traits at another level. It's not about being elite, it's about there being a gap between your ability and the other elite players. I think we see it with Mahomes throwing ability, Tyreek Hills speed and Aaron Donalds line play. OBJ, JJ Watt and Darrelle Revis all had multiple years of similar mind boggling production. I think Lamar has that with his running ability. His talents as a runner, and being in a scheme that emphasize that talent, are really unprecedented. That play against Washington earlier this year where he took an inside read 50 yards and only had his arm slapped? That is truly a play no other active QB can make, and barring a catastrophic injury, will separate him from the pack for many years.

 

4.) I don't think he'll ever be Wilson or Brees, that's not his skillset. I think he'll always be best if he's in a run first attack that sets up chunk yardage through play action. That's the Roman offense and Shanahan/Kubiak offense to a T.  Can you win with that? Absolutely. 

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3 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

A couple of things...

 

1.) Defensive play continues to decline across the league. Right now,. the Dolphins are #1, allowing 18 PPG. The best numbers in 2005, 2010 and 2015 were 12.6, 14.5 and 17. The "defenses will figure great players out" narrative simply isn't as impactful as it was even a decade ago.

 

2.) They have won consistently. Lamar holds one of the best, if not the best, W/L records of ANY modern NFL QB since he became a starter. This is not a case of a team sneaking into a wild card slot, they have been one of the NFL"s elite teams since he took the job. Yes, he needs a few more big wins on his resume, but he has already beat an undefeated Tom Brady, Russel Wilson and Deshaun Watson.

 

3.) There are NFL players who sometimes have traits at another level. It's not about being elite, it's about there being a gap between your ability and the other elite players. I think we see it with Mahomes throwing ability, Tyreek Hills speed and Aaron Donalds line play. OBJ, JJ Watt and Darrelle Revis all had multiple years of similar awe inspiring talent. I think Lamar has that with his running ability. His talents as a runner, and being in a scheme that emphasize that talent, are really unprecedented. That play against Washington earlier this year where he took an inside read 50 yards and only had his arm slapped? That is truly a play no other active QB can make, and barring a catastrophic injury, will separate him from the pack for many years.

 

4.) I don't think he'll ever be Wilson or Brees, that's not his skillset. I think he'll always be best if he's in a run first attack that sets up chunk yardage through play action. That's the Roman offense and Shanahan/Kubiak offense to a T.  Can you win with that? Absolutely. 

Those are all good points, and I won't go through each to explain why I disagree.   I appreciate you're taking the time to lay it out intelligently.

 

In general, here's why I think I'm correct about this.  I think if you look at the long-term history of the NFL, it's always been about offensive innovation and defensive response.   The defense eventually always figures out how to stop the offense.  In some cases it takes weeks, in some cases it takes a season, in some cases it's more.  Eventually the defenses begin to win.  The offenses then tweak and adjust, like they start creating legal pick plays to get guys open in the passing game, because they can't figure out how else to do it.   And then, and we see it in all the territorial games (football, hockey, basketball), as the defenses really take control and scoring begins to drop, the people who run the games change the rules to help the offense.  It's happened over and over again in all three sports, and it's happened continually in pro football.  This season, for example, the league decided to stop calling so many offensive holding penalties.  Why?  To goose the offense.  

 

Right, we're in a period where the super athletic young QB with the right kind of talent around him allows coaches to run a limited offense that can succeed.  I don't see any reason that the long-term trends suddenly no longer apply - the defenses will adjust to those players and that style of play, and as they adjust, those players and that style of play will have less success.   

 

The style that always has won, despite the continuing evolution of strategies, is the style that demands that your QB be a field general, a coach on the field, a guy who has the ability to attack the defense everywhere.   That's been true since the 1940s.   The Luckmans and the Grahams and the Tittles and the Starrs and the Bradshaws and the Staubachs and the Grieses and the Montanas and the Aikmans and the Kellys and the Youngs, right up to the Mannings, the Bradys, the Breeses, the Rodgers.  It's always been that way, and I don't think there's any reason to expect that this flurry of excitement about Jackson and Murray is any different.   In the end, the QB has to get back on the pocket and run the game from there.  

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17 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

A couple of things...

 

1.) Defensive play continues to decline across the league. Right now,. the Dolphins are #1, allowing 18 PPG. The best numbers in 2005, 2010 and 2015 were 12.6, 14.5 and 17. The "defenses will figure great players out" narrative simply isn't as impactful as it was even a decade ago.

 

2.) They have won consistently. Lamar holds one of the best, if not the best, W/L records of ANY modern NFL QB since he became a starter. This is not a case of a team sneaking into a wild card slot, they have been one of the NFL"s elite teams since he took the job. That team was trash, with Harbaugh on the chopping block, and he immediately gets them into the playoffs and follows it up with a MVP, #1 seed season. Yes, he needs a few more big wins on his resume, but he has already beat an undefeated Tom Brady, Russel Wilson and Deshaun Watson.

 

3.) There are NFL players who sometimes have traits at another level. It's not about being elite, it's about there being a gap between your ability and the other elite players. I think we see it with Mahomes throwing ability, Tyreek Hills speed and Aaron Donalds line play. OBJ, JJ Watt and Darrelle Revis all had multiple years of similar mind boggling production. I think Lamar has that with his running ability. His talents as a runner, and being in a scheme that emphasize that talent, are really unprecedented. That play against Washington earlier this year where he took an inside read 50 yards and only had his arm slapped? That is truly a play no other active QB can make, and barring a catastrophic injury, will separate him from the pack for many years.

 

4.) I don't think he'll ever be Wilson or Brees, that's not his skillset. I think he'll always be best if he's in a run first attack that sets up chunk yardage through play action. That's the Roman offense and Shanahan/Kubiak offense to a T.  Can you win with that? Absolutely. 

This board has a hard on to put Lamar down.  It’s really strange.  He has arguably the worst group of receivers in the nfl.  He definitely has his flaws but it’s really, really strange why folks here seem to root for him to fail. 

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16 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

What is the point of this?  To tear down a 23 year old MVP, Heisman winner, who is 24-5 as a starter (qb win-loss record is overrated but still), who has a 54 td to 13 int ratio, in addition to 2,300 yards rushing and 13 tds? 
 

seriously, you just come across as a hater and it’s a bad look.  And it really serves no purpose.

I think the questions raised about Jackson are in reference to sustainability of his game if he never develops into a consistent passer. Not sure it was to try and tear him down.

 

Bottom line is, if he doesn't evolve into more of a passer, his career is shortened. It's that simple. Same with Allen tbh, and he has shown development, where Jackson has not...

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On 11/4/2020 at 2:07 AM, Penfield45 said:

Why does OP constantly hate on minority QB’s ? Seems strange 

This kind of comment can only be made by a racist- I can think Mahomes and Wilson are the two best QBs for the next 5 years but because I would rather have Allen than Jackson it is racially motivated. There is something seriously wrong with you dude 

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19 minutes ago, Gene1973 said:

I think the questions raised about Jackson are in reference to sustainability of his game if he never develops into a consistent passer. Not sure it was to try and tear him down.

 

Bottom line is, if he doesn't evolve into more of a passer, his career is shortened. It's that simple. Same with Allen tbh, and he has shown development, where Jackson has not...

They start threads about him when he does bad in a pro bowl drill (and then he wins MVP in the game).  
 

I totally agree he needs to be better as a passer but he has a garbage crew of receivers around him.   He the guy is still winning a lot of games.

13 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

This kind of comment can only be made by a racist- I can think Mahomes and Wilson are the two best QBs for the next 5 years but because I would rather have Allen than Jackson it is racially motivated. There is something seriously wrong with you dude 

I don’t think it’s racist but I don’t remember a guy his age and who’s been as successful as he is catching as much flack as he has.  Bill Polian said he should switch positions. 

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1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

This board has a hard on to put Lamar down.  It’s really strange.  He has arguably the worst group of receivers in the nfl.  He definitely has his flaws but it’s really, really strange why folks here seem to root for him to fail. 

 

There are fair critiques of him that I think we can all acknowledge, but the  "Jackson can't throw", "Jackson hasn't progressed" , takes are really lazy and disrespectful.

 

I don't understand how anyone could watch Lamar play and think he's some kind of flash in the pan. He's a tremendous young QB with a very bright future ahead.

 

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

In general, here's why I think I'm correct about this.  I think if you look at the long-term history of the NFL, it's always been about offensive innovation and defensive response.   The defense eventually always figures out how to stop the offense.  In some cases it takes weeks, in some cases it takes a season, in some cases it's more.  Eventually the defenses begin to win.

 

The defense that can win season to season is quickly becoming a unicorn. There's too much variability of that side of the ball. Look at our own roster, we've fallen off a cliff this year! Keeping this on the Ravens, they faced an elite Steelers defense that KNEW they love to run, and they STILL put up 250+ rushing yards. I know we love to cling to this narrative that defense wins championships, but that ship has sailed. Offenses have made the vast majority of defenses their B word.

 

Now, can the best defenses contain the best QBs? Absolutely. The "blueprint" is the same for all great QBs - get pressure with 4 rushers and drop the rest into zone. If you have a mobile QB, then you keep a LB in spy. Easy to scheme up, extremely difficult to execute.

 

We've seen all sorts of creative scheming in the past decade, but let's not forget that some of the best players make extraordinary plays off "normal" looks. The Titans love to run dive plays with Henry, good luck stopping him. The Chiefs will run streaks with Hill, good luck keeping up.  Michael Thomas loves his quick slants and outs, good luck stopping him.

 

If you let them, the Ravens will run the read option until February - good luck stopping them.

 

 

Edited by TheElectricCompany
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2 hours ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

28 pages in, and we're still stuck on these points. I just don't get it, but we all have our hills to die on. The other stuff has been discussed countless times across this thread.

 

We can't wait to rake Lamar over the coals when he loses to the Chiefs or undefeated Steelers (they were in it until the final play), but expect patience and understanding when our own QB is in a slump, losing to two elite teams, eeking out wins against the lowly Jets and Patriots, and struggling against zone coverage. It's also strange that the explosive runs we saw in 18 and 19 aren't happening this year.

 

I wonder if the talking heads will pick up the "Has Josh Allen reverted to form? " takes if we lose big to the Seahawks...

 

 

See this is where I'm at as well. 

 

Right now, you put Justin Herbert on the Bills, or Joe Burrow on the Bills, and it's definitely Allen is way better than them? Are we 2-6 with Herbert? 1-5 with Burrow? 

 

I think the Buffalo media has become obsessed with the "first 4 games", and Allen's productivity there. But if all it takes is soft-zone defense to drive our points per game from 30 to 18 then what does that mean? Is that the reason we aren't scoring? 

 

Then you read posts on here that say Allen has been impeccable against the zone because of his patience. 

 

I'm not sure how close to his ceiling Allen is, and I agree with Shaw that I don't Lamar is going to get more athletic and run with more efficiency than he has already shown. 

 

But to clean it up, it's this idea that Allen has unlimited potential (after we've seen him for 35 games now) and others don't have nearly that potential that I am struggling to digest, when we're 6-2, and our scoring has come down from 30 ppg to 18 ppg attributed to a soft-zone defense. 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Yeah, this thread ran longer than I'd ever expected, and then someone brought it back for a second run.  

 

For the record, I never intended to bury Jackson this week or this month.  I was talking about the trajectory of his career.

 

I think Jackson is great at what he does.  I just don't think any team can enjoy long-term success playing like that, and I think we've already begun to see that he's reaching the plateau from which his gradual decline will begin.  Just like Newton and Vick plateaued and declined.  When your offense depends on the QB running, your passing game suffers, and when your passing game suffers, your offense is too limited to win consistently.  Unless Jackson can morph into a version of Russell Wilson or Drew Brees, and he hasn't shown much ability to do that yet, he is not going to be one of the top QBs for the next decade. 

Talking Lamar Jackson right now with Greg Cossel, he said that Lamar Jackson is leaving throws on the field, he's been frenetic in the pocket, he moves too early. 

 

All to your points. 

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Yeah, this thread ran longer than I'd ever expected, and then someone brought it back for a second run.  

We're getting into the meat of this right now. 

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Cossel on Tua - He didn't have to do much, sense was that he sees things quickly and knows where he needs to go with the ball, 15 yard to Grant was designed to left and he had to come back to the right. 

 

Cossel on Brees - He doesn't throw it like he used to, and this causes more inaccuracy, so the offense is different. So it falls on Payton to scheme players open. 

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3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I wouldn't ask anyone to go back and read this entire thread, but I have some earlier posts here, and I've said the same thing for a year now, explaining why I don't think Jackson will progress.   

 

In reading, you're just saying that Lamar dominated the college level with athleticism, and the NFL with athleticism, up until the Titans last year (even though the Chargers beat him in the Playoffs in 2018), and his strength of running and dink/dunking has actually become a limiting factor in his development.

 

Because as he has spent more time in an offense that caters to his running instincts, the less he is working on staying in the pocket and delivering throws. Greg Cossell has been steadfast in his belief that you need to read defenses and make throws from there. 

 

The Ravens also have hurt themselves this year by chaining themselves to Mark Ingram at 3.0 ypc.  

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28 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I'm not sure how close to his ceiling Allen is, and I agree with Shaw that I don't Lamar is going to get more athletic and run with more efficiency than he has already shown. 

 

But to clean it up, it's this idea that Allen has unlimited potential (after we've seen him for 35 games now) and others don't have nearly that potential that I am struggling to digest, when we're 6-2, and our scoring has come down from 30 ppg to 18 ppg attributed to a soft-zone defense.

 

Ceilings are fun to imagine. I think we got a great preview of what Josh's might look like in September, and that's exciting.  He was hitting throws with accuracy and reading coverage quickly. The "unlimited potential" thing is overdone, but that's been following him since draft day. I blame the "big guy with a big arm" takes. I hear Josh can throw the ball 80 yards, while Mahomes can only throw it 78 yards, so that must mean something.

 

Lamar's ceiling... he can't put up 1200 yards rushing every year, although multiple 1000+ yard seasons aren't out of the question. What's the ideal mix between passing and rushing for him? Tough to say. I think his ceiling is still a bit hazy. The floor is more established...I think he's good for  30+ TDs and and ~4000 yards of offense annually.

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21 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

 

Because as he has spent more time in an offense that caters to his running instincts, the less he is working on staying in the pocket and delivering throw

 

 

25 TDs from the pocket last year...best in the league. He can do it, just needs to break the slump and get back to form. Plus, should we care how a TD is throw? A TD thrown on a play action bootleg, moving pocket or scramble drill doesn't count less. It reminds me of the Moneyball quote "He gets on base!"

 

I think the "he can't throw outside from the pocket" complaints are the loudest...anyone you can think of that had a similar issue?  Lamar clearly is dominant in the red zone (37 TD/0 INT!), and is excellent off play action and throws between the numbers. He's had plenty of downfield strikes, so arm strength doesn't appear to be a factor. I wonder why a QB would struggle with outside throws specifically. It's weird.

 

If he figures outside throws out, you're talking about all time great territory, a true unicorn player.

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24 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

If he figures outside throws out, you're talking about all time great territory, a true unicorn player.

 

He will look good in pink.  Hopefully he is so good the Ravens rename themselves the Unicorns with new pink jerseys.

 

1545689731.candybee_lil_uniguy_256.gif

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