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Predict Diggs' 2020 stats


GreggTX
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1 hour ago, Stank_Nasty said:

It was 45th in the whole entire league. Let’s add some context. A healthy top ten talent ranked 45th in targets. No. It’s not a lot. It’s just not. factor in who we are talking about and it’s ridiculously low. I’ll concede the other years. 
 

but ya. If we need to get into being overly literal about what somebody said then sure he had more than “no targets at all” 

 

 

I'm sure there are more than 10 WRs who feel or whose current team's fans think are "top 10 talent".

 

So when in 2018, Cousins targeted him 149 times---that's not a lot either?

 

"Overly literal"?  That poster was given several chances to modify that claim, when presented with data that clearly refuted the claim.  They instead chose to double, then triple down on it.

 

Only 2 responses were over 100 predicted (I was one).  So Almost every responder disagrees with you on this issue.

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4 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I believe that re Bills will target him 8 times a game on average. If you take his career on a per target basis you are looking at:

87 catches

1,108 yards

7 TDs 

 

That’s what I’ll roll with. 

I think that’s fair Kirby. I want to see him break 1200 yds on 90 receptions and get 10 TD’s. I think this would mean Josh is also having a great year. 

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8 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

I'm sure there are more than 10 WRs who feel or whose current team's fans think are "top 10 talent".

 

So when in 2018, Cousins targeted him 149 times---that's not a lot either?

 

"Overly literal"?  That poster was given several chances to modify that claim, when presented with data that clearly refuted the claim.  They instead chose to double, then triple down on it.

 

Only 2 responses were over 100 predicted (I was one).  So Almost every responder disagrees with you on this issue.

I’ve seen 2 lists just this last week regarding diggs as a top ten wr. The nfl networks playing voting and then another analyst on NFL.com did a list putting him at 8. It’s not just some fan bias.
 

But whatever, my man. I honestly don’t care enough about this to keep going. My main gripe is he had low target counts last year. That’s a fact. I literally conceded the prior 2 years and you still try and argue about it with me. So I can sorta see what I’m dealing with here. You win??? .... i guess. 

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8 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

I’ve seen 2 lists just this last week regarding diggs as a top ten wr. The nfl networks playing voting and then another analyst on NFL.com did a list putting him at 8. It’s not just some fan bias.
 

But whatever, my man. I honestly don’t care enough about this to keep going. My main gripe is he had low target counts last year. That’s a fact. I literally conceded the prior 2 years and you still try and argue about it with me. So I can sorta see what I’m dealing with here. You win??? .... i guess. 

 

This.

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8 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

I’ve seen 2 lists just this last week regarding diggs as a top ten wr. The nfl networks playing voting and then another analyst on NFL.com did a list putting him at 8. It’s not just some fan bias.
 

But whatever, my man. I honestly don’t care enough about this to keep going. My main gripe is he had low target counts last year. That’s a fact. I literally conceded the prior 2 years and you still try and argue about it with me. So I can sorta see what I’m dealing with here. You win??? .... i guess. 

 

 

Your "gripe" is "a fact".  

 

Noted.

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1 minute ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Dude he was 45th in targets last year. Yes its a fact. Are you always this obtuse? 

 

 

You pick one season with Cousins (the topic of this discussion being "he got no targets with Cousins").  He had 3.  In 2 of them, he was the #2 WR by targets, YPC and receptions. 

 

Look, I think he will have a big year.  But if he isn't top 10 in targets/catches/yards (again), the he just isn't a "top 10 WR", no matter what you feel. 

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16 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

You pick one season with Cousins (the topic of this discussion being "he got no targets with Cousins").  He had 3.  In 2 of them, he was the #2 WR by targets, YPC and receptions. 

 

Look, I think he will have a big year.  But if he isn't top 10 in targets/catches/yards (again), the he just isn't a "top 10 WR", no matter what you feel. 

 

See I disagree on the last point. I do think Diggs is a top 10 (or thereabouts - in that 8-12 range) receiver and have been banging that drum for two years. He is just superbly talented. If we have a season, Diggs plays, he stays healthy and he isn't in that range for numbers I do think it will speak more to Josh Allen than Stefon Diggs. Not that I expect that, but, it it happens I would be really surprised if the tape told a story that put that on Diggs.

 

But you are right on the first point. It was a bizarre take that has been walked back in stages until he has found a somewhat defensible position. 

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1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

I'm sure there are more than 10 WRs who feel or whose current team's fans think are "top 10 talent".

 

So when in 2018, Cousins targeted him 149 times---that's not a lot either?

 

"Overly literal"?  That poster was given several chances to modify that claim, when presented with data that clearly refuted the claim.  They instead chose to double, then triple down on it.

 

Only 2 responses were over 100 predicted (I was one).  So Almost every responder disagrees with you on this issue.

Only 2 responses were over 100 targets?explain that. Every response i have seen puts him between 74- 85 catches this season. Thats well over 100 targets on either end. Both brown and beasley both had over 100 targets last year. Its safe to assume diggs will have well over 100.

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22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

See I disagree on the last point. I do think Diggs is a top 10 (or thereabouts - in that 8-12 range) receiver and have been banging that drum for two years. He is just superbly talented. If we have a season, Diggs plays, he stays healthy and he isn't in that range for numbers I do think it will speak more to Josh Allen than Stefon Diggs. Not that I expect that, but, it it happens I would be really surprised if the tape told a story that put that on Diggs.

 

But you are right on the first point. It was a bizarre take that has been walked back in stages until he has found a somewhat defensible position. 


You have been saying as much about Diggs, for sure.  Credit to you there.

 

But Diggs was purchased at a premium by the Bills to be a top 10 WR.  He has to make Josh better.  Even guys like Brown and Beasely upped their game in Buffalo.  Diggs needs top 10 numbers for this to have been a value move. 

3 minutes ago, Ddub3586 said:

Only 2 responses were over 100 targets?explain that. Every response i have seen puts him between 74- 85 catches this season. Thats well over 100 targets on either end. Both brown and beasley both had over 100 targets last year. Its safe to assume diggs will have well over 100.

 
yes he will have over 100 catches.  If he catches 70% of his targets, guesses in the 75 catch range put him at not much over 100, which posters have said is “hardly any” 

Edited by Mr. WEO
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9 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:


You have been saying as much about Diggs, for sure.  Credit to you there.

 

But Diggs was purchased at a premium by the Bills to be a top 10 WR.  He has to make Josh better.  Even guys like Brown and Beasely upped their game in Buffalo.  Diggs needs top 10 numbers for this to have been a value move. 

 
yes he will have over 100 catches.  If he catches 70% of his targets, guesses in the 75 catch range put him at not much over 100, which posters have said is “hardly any” 

i'd say little over 100 on a team with out a supporting cast is low. But on the bills we have a quality number 2 and slot option. So i think 120 targets is about what diggs will see. Gotta spread that ball around.

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20 minutes ago, Ddub3586 said:

i'd say little over 100 on a team with out a supporting cast is low. But on the bills we have a quality number 2 and slot option. So i think 120 targets is about what diggs will see. Gotta spread that ball around.


Agree

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850 yds 7 tds

 

I think the ball will be spread a lot more. Sharing the rock opening the field for Brown Beasley and an up and coming Dawson Knox. Its a toss up. I just feel like 65 reception is about right. This seems like it would get us over the hump 

Edited by Agent 91
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On 8/1/2020 at 12:30 AM, Royale with Cheese said:


LOL

 

John Brown last year had 76 receptions, 1000 + yards and 6 TD’s....
 

Brown can have good numbers but Diggs can’t?

You have to factor in defensive respect AND the already present rapport with Brown. That's ok though there is only 1 ball to go around and we have a solid x y and z. Just because Diggs is better than brown means very little. There is a lot that is at play here. What we can agree on, is the offense is better. The variations we present now will be so interesting to see how defenses prepare

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The Bills paid a premium for Diggs and it wasn't because they wanted another body. Diggs was brought here because the Bills needed a number 1. They needed a guy that defenses have to game plan for. They didn’t have that. He wasn’t brought here to “fit in.” They have the solid role players already. Diggs was brought in to be a difference maker. As such they are going to try to get him the football. The number in my head is 8 targets a game or 128 on the season. For some perspective there were 18 NFL receivers last year that averaged 8 or more targets per game. 
 

We need to relearn what it is like to have stars. We are so accustomed to role players that we really don’t understand what having elite players does. John Brown and Beasley are nice NFL receivers. Diggs is a star. While the stats don’t always show the difference, the tape and the opposing game plan do. If he’s healthy the Bills are going to look to him often and in a variety of ways.

Edited by Kirby Jackson
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1 hour ago, Agent 91 said:

You have to factor in defensive respect AND the already present rapport with Brown. That's ok though there is only 1 ball to go around and we have a solid x y and z. Just because Diggs is better than brown means very little. There is a lot that is at play here. What we can agree on, is the offense is better. The variations we present now will be so interesting to see how defenses prepare


I think it means more than “a little”.  We traded away a good amount to get him because we think he’s going to be the difference.  That guy you feed the ball to.

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7 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:


I think it means more than “a little”.  We traded away a good amount to get him because we think he’s going to be the difference.  That guy you feed the ball to.

Right.  You don’t trade away a first rounder and more, for 700-800 yds a season. 

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