Statistical data vs emotion -

[Deranged Rhino]

Just now, oldmanfan said:

I would argue that the social distancing policies that the public health authorities have recommended have been the most significant reason we have only 50k deaths vs.  many more.  I think the public health experts would tell you that.

 

And yet, we have Sweden to hold up and say, hmmm... maybe not. 

[TH3]

31 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

Because the data that says it will help get us back to normal is incomplete and wearing a mask is not returning to normalcy, it's a deviation from it to the absurd.  

 

And, in this country, we have a stubborn streak of enjoying freedom in the face of tyranny. 

 

29 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

Why not a burka?  I always want my government mandating what I need to wear to go out in public.

 

 

Statistical data vs emotion......you guys are jokes

[Boatdrinks]

Just now, oldmanfan said:

I would argue that the social distancing policies that the public health authorities have recommended have been the most significant reason we have only 50k deaths vs.  many more.  I think the public health experts would tell you that.

It has kept numbers down for now, but we also know that the virus is going to be around. Waiting for things to be “ safe” isn’t an option. Continued social distancing practices of some type and even continued self isolation by choice for some would be best going forward imo. 

[Deranged Rhino]

Just now, TH3 said:

 

 

Statistical data vs emotion......you guys are jokes

 

Got another fake story to push this morning about fish tank cleaners? Or Trump/Russia? 

 

Or nah? 

 

 

 

It never gets old laughing at NPCs. 

[oldmanfan]

3 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

And yet, we have Sweden to hold up and say, hmmm... maybe not. 

My reading of how Sweden has its lower rates is that the population there has Ben very good at voluntarily practicing social distancing guidelines.  Saw an interview with their Deputy Prime Minister to that effect.  

 

Again I’d live to see our communities do that. But they’re not.  

2 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

It has kept numbers down for now, but we also know that the virus is going to be around. Waiting for things to be “ safe” isn’t an option. Continued social distancing practices of some type and even continued self isolation by choice for some would be best going forward imo. 

I agree.  Clearly if you are in a high risk group you’d want to be more cautious.

[Commsvet11]

2 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

It has kept numbers down for now, but we also know that the virus is going to be around. Waiting for things to be “ safe” isn’t an option. Continued social distancing practices of some type and even continued self isolation by choice for some would be best going forward imo. 

This is a key point.

 

This isn’t just going to go away. It is part of lives now. You can hope for a vaccine, but we have a population of people who don’t even bother taking a flu shot. 
 

It was a valiant effort, but sooner or later, just like the flu, we are all going to be infected. 
 

 

[Boatdrinks]

1 minute ago, Commsvet11 said:

This is a key point.

 

This isn’t just going to go away. It is part of lives now. You can hope for a vaccine, but we have a population of people who don’t even bother taking a flu shot. 
 

It was a valiant effort, but sooner or later, just like the flu, we are all going to be infected. 
 

 

Yep, and there was probably no keeping it out. Which state had the first confirmed case in and why didn’t the governor lockdown and contact trace/ test ? Probably a lost cause by that time but who knows ? A lot of blame shifting going on and refusal to admit the reality that this virus isn’t going anywhere. 

[Big Gun]

Wasn't the whole point of the restrictions per Cuomo to flatten the curve and not overwhelm the hospitals? That has happened on both accounts, and can be argued here in WNY that the hospitals were never overwhelmed. Instead of opening things up, he mandates masks, yeah Cuomos going to have a hard time being reelected IMO. Guy is a clown!

[Boatdrinks]

Just now, pop gun said:

Wasn't the whole point of the restrictions per Cuomo to flatten the curve and not overwhelm the hospitals? That has happened on both accounts, and can be argued here in WNY that the hospitals were never overwhelmed. Instead of opening things up, he mandates masks, yeah Cuomos going to have a hard time being reelected IMO. Guy is a clown!

Yep, and the germ infested mass transit system must stay open . Meanwhile, golfers must walk the course because having one person per cart ( disinfected after every round) isn’t safe. The man is an idiot ! 

[Tiberius]

2 minutes ago, pop gun said:

Wasn't the whole point of the restrictions per Cuomo to flatten the curve and not overwhelm the hospitals? That has happened on both accounts, and can be argued here in WNY that the hospitals were never overwhelmed. Instead of opening things up, he mandates masks, yeah Cuomos going to have a hard time being reelected IMO. Guy is a clown!

He will win easily. He'd beat Trump in a national race. 

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

17 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

While that’s not spread casually ( as we know) I agree. Polio has been brought up in some threads. I wasn’t around during the time of Polio , but I’m pretty certain there were sporting events, restaurants, bars etc. Current generations have largely been shielded from infectious illnesses, and that seems to have led to mindless panic and governmental overreach in some places. 

I don’t blame anyone in charge at any level for the initial reaction. In fact I think many took some pretty brave steps to recommend some very bold steps...BUT....we now have the largest clinical study in human history! We’ve conducted a 60 day study with 330 MILLION people and what we’ve learned is that this virus represents an almost ZERO lethal threat to people under 60 years old. Remember, we shut everyone and everybody down at the same time, so the SCIENTIFIC data results are now conclusive. While we still don’t know whether it was social distancing or some other factor that flattened the curve, we do KNOW that younger people are not at risk of dying from this particular virus. So let’s tell seniors to stay home and tell everyone else to ‘have a great day and resume your normal lives with some extra precautions for hygiene for awhile”.

[Tiberius]

1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

I don’t blame anyone in charge at any level for the initial reaction. In fact I think many took some pretty brave steps to recommend some very bold steps...BUT....we now have the largest clinical study in human history! We’ve conducted a 60 day study with 330 MILLION people and what we’ve learned is that this virus represents an almost ZERO lethal threat to people under 60 years old. Remember, we shut everyone and everybody down at the same time, so the SCIENTIFIC data results are now conclusive. While we still don’t know whether it was social distancing or some other factor that flattened the curve, we do KNOW that younger people are not at risk of dying from this particular virus. So let’s tell seniors to stay home and tell everyone else to ‘have a great day and resume your normal lives with some extra precautions for hygiene for awhile”.

Is that right? 

[Boatdrinks]

4 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

He will win easily. He'd beat Trump in a national race. 

 

 

The man who said America wasn’t “ that great” ? I don’t believe he’d win, but a very sad situation if he did. 

[SoCal Deek]

Just now, Tiberius said:

Is that right? 

Yes...we do KNOW this. The data proves it. If you’d turn off CNN for one second, and google the CDC’s own website you can see the results for yourself. Or...you can keep spreading hysteria and misinformation. Your choice.

[Buffalo_Gal]

6 minutes ago, pop gun said:

Wasn't the whole point of the restrictions per Cuomo to flatten the curve and not overwhelm the hospitals? That has happened on both accounts, and can be argued here in WNY that the hospitals were never overwhelmed. Instead of opening things up, he mandates masks, yeah Cuomos going to have a hard time being reelected IMO. Guy is a clown!

If he runs again, he will win in a walk.

There are people who have enjoyed being told what to do, and who to obey. The over 70 crowd (who get a government check and can afford to stay home) seem to be most impressed with the stay at home orders, and appear to be the least willing to open up.
 

[Boatdrinks]

1 minute ago, Tiberius said:

Is that right? 

There is some risk. It’s definitely  not impossible ; there are documented cases. The larger point of his post is correct, though. 

[Tiberius]

Just now, SoCal Deek said:

Yes...we do KNOW this. The data proves it. If you’d turn off CNN for one second, and google the CDC’s own website you can see the results for yourself. Or...you can keep spreading hysteria and misinformation. Your choice.

Link 

[SoCal Deek]

Just now, Tiberius said:

Link 

Geez...are you so lame you can’t use Google? My god man! 

[Boatdrinks]

1 minute ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

If he runs again, he will win in a walk.

There are people who have enjoyed being told what to do, and who to obey. The over 70 crowd (who get a government check and can afford to stay home) seem to be most impressed with the stay at home orders, and appear to be the least willing to open up.
 

Oh he’ll win another term as Governor, I believe . Mostly due to the reasons you stated. 

[Tiberius]

Just now, SoCal Deek said:

Geez...are you so lame you can’t use Google? My god man! 

Lol, you made the post, back it up. Zero risk? That sounds like BS 

[Deranged Rhino]

27 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

My reading of how Sweden has its lower rates is that the population there has Ben very good at voluntarily practicing social distancing guidelines.  

 

There's that word. 

 

Different from mandate. 

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, Boatdrinks said:

There is some risk. It’s definitely  not impossible ; there are documented cases. The larger point of his post is correct, though. 

We don’t really know if there is ‘some’ risk to the general population. The CDC site doesn’t define the pre-existing conditions of the under 55 deaths.  I’d virtually guarantee you that all of them had a significant health condition prior to Covid 19. I’m sticking to my position that your typical healthy under 55 year old has ZERO chance of dying from this virus. In fact, the CDC site shows ALL of the deaths from ALL causes and what you learn is that young people rarely die in 21st Century America, unless it’s from an accident or other man made cause. We live in a VERY safe time in human history.

6 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Lol, you made the post, back it up. Zero risk? That sounds like BS 

cdc.gov

 

was that really so hard? 

[Boatdrinks]

1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

We don’t really know if there is ‘some’ risk to the general population. The CDC site doesn’t define the pre-existing conditions of the under 55 deaths.  I’d virtually guarantee you that all of them had a significant health condition prior to Covid 19. I’m sticking to my position that your typical healthy under 55 year old has ZERO chance of dying from this virus. In fact, the CDC site shows ALL of the deaths from ALL causes and what you learn is that young people rarely die in 21st Century America, unless it’s from an accident or other man made cause. We live in a VERY safe time in human history.

I’d be inclined to agree with you. Especially after examining the NYC data. It’s just the usual Tibs overreacting to some minutiae or a slight overstatement to ignore / dismiss the greater point. 

[Big Gun]

8 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

If he runs again, he will win in a walk.

There are people who have enjoyed being told what to do, and who to obey. The over 70 crowd (who get a government check and can afford to stay home) seem to be most impressed with the stay at home orders, and appear to be the least willing to open up.
 

I hear you but it's hard to understand peoples mindset that think he is doing a good job. Cuomo also mandated nursing homes take in covid 19 positive people, so maybe there is hope the old folks remember that and don't vote for him.

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

There's that word. 

 

Different from mandate. 

I’ll say this again, I would much rather see us all band together and help each other out by each wearing masks.  Is that clear?

 

What I also indicated is that if I were governor of my state and see that despite the social distancing people are not doing so, I would have to consider mandating it but that the legality of that would have to be addressed.  Is that also clear?

[SoCal Deek]

Just now, Boatdrinks said:

I’d be inclined to agree with you. Especially after examining the NYC data. It’s just the usual Tibs overreacting to some minutiae or a slight overstatement to ignore / dismiss the greater point. 

When you visit the CDC site the figures in their table are pretty astounding. If you just look at the figures on who dies in America, it’s pretty much dominated by ‘old people’, with or without the virus.
 

600,000 out 650,000 deaths are people 60 and over. 

[Deranged Rhino]

2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I’ll say this again, I would much rather see us all band together and help each other out by each wearing masks.  Is that clear?

 

It is. It's also different from where you started. But I'm glad you're there. 

 

 

[Tiberius]

6 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

We don’t really know if there is ‘some’ risk to the general population. The CDC site doesn’t define the pre-existing conditions of the under 55 deaths.  I’d virtually guarantee you that all of them had a significant health condition prior to Covid 19. I’m sticking to my position that your typical healthy under 55 year old has ZERO chance of dying from this virus. In fact, the CDC site shows ALL of the deaths from ALL causes and what you learn is that young people rarely die in 21st Century America, unless it’s from an accident or other man made cause. We live in a VERY safe time in human history.

cdc.gov

 

was that really so hard? 

This? 

Where do it zero bro? 

Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Children — United States, February 12–April 2, 2020

Weekly / April 10, 2020 / 69(14);422–426

 

On April 6, 2020, this report was posted online as an MMWR Early Release.

CDC COVID-19 Response Team (View author affiliations)

View suggested citation

Summary

What is already known about this topic?

Data from China suggest that pediatric coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases might be less severe than cases in adults and that children (persons aged <18 years) might experience different symptoms than adults.

What is added by this report?

In this preliminary description of pediatric U.S. COVID-19 cases, relatively few children with COVID-19 are hospitalized, and fewer children than adults experience fever, cough, or shortness of breath. Severe outcomes have been reported in children, including three deaths.

What are the implications for public health practice?

Pediatric COVID-19 patients might not have fever or cough. Social distancing and everyday preventive behaviors remain important for all age groups because patients with less serious illness and those without symptoms likely play an important role in disease transmission.

[Buffalo_Gal]

5 minutes ago, pop gun said:

I hear you but it's hard to understand peoples mindset that think he is doing a good job. Cuomo also mandated nursing homes take in covid 19 positive people, so maybe there is hope the old folks remember that and don't vote for him.

That is a tough one. If you live in a nursing home, and are recovered enough from COVID-19 to not be in the hospital, where exactly should you go? Many nursing homes are rehab centers, too.

(And I ask this as someone whose father is in a NYS nursing home, and who has had several staff cases in the home where he resides.)
 

[SoCal Deek]

Tibs?

Don’t be an ASS!

The CDC has a comprehensive table showing the deaths by age since the pandemic started and running through last week. You obviously have a tough time with math and data. 

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Tibs?

Don’t be an ASS!

The CDC has a comprehensive table showing the deaths by age since the pandemic started and running through last week. You obviously have a tough time with math and data. 

One of the things that should also be studied is the ongoing morbidity effect of the virus in younger individuals.  While surviving will there be higher incidence of fibrotic lung disease for example.  There is a suggestion that the incidence of clotting disorders in younger patients is higher and data on that should be gathered.  

5 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

That is a tough one. If you live in a nursing home, and are recovered enough from COVID-19 to not be in the hospital, where exactly should you go? Many nursing homes are rehab centers, too.

(And I ask this as someone whose father is in a NYS nursing home, and who has had several staff cases in the home where he resides.)
 

Good question.

[Cinga]

On 4/16/2020 at 10:05 AM, mead107 said:

Before c19 150-200 people died in NYC everyday 

are those now be counted as C19 deaths? 

 

I've seen this posted before, where do these numbers come from? In a city of 8 million, stats of 80 average age would give you almost twice that a day.

[Orlando Tim]

6 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Tibs?

Don’t be an ASS!

 

I am sorry but you will have better luck not paying taxes than getting tibs to stop.

[Boatdrinks]

7 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

I’ll say this again, I would much rather see us all band together and help each other out by each wearing masks.  Is that clear?

 

What I also indicated is that if I were governor of my state and see that despite the social distancing people are not doing so, I would have to consider mandating it but that the legality of that would have to be addressed.  Is that also clear?

It’s really simple. Just assume that everyone around you ( even those you know personally) are infected and contagious. If that makes you want to wear a mask as a measure of protection, go ahead and wear one. Not really a problem. Mandating the wearing of face covering in America - that’s a problem. 

[mead107]

1 hour ago, Cinga said:

I've seen this posted before, where do these numbers come from? In a city of 8 million, stats of 80 average age would give you almost twice that a day.

404 is average per day for ny state. (2008-2017) 
it is their  stats from health site for ny state. 

 

 

[Magox]

On 4/26/2020 at 8:33 AM, oldmanfan said:

Hope you’re right.   There is some progress with convalescent serum from infected individuals but also some data on reinfection.  So it’s kind of murky right now.

 

 

Regarding  our discussion:

 

 

Quote

 

Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC on Monday he believes that most people who had the new coronavirus will have “some level” of immunity.

“Now how long that immunity lasts, how strong it is, we don’t know. It might not last that long in certain people. It might not be that strong so you can get reinfected but perhaps not get as sick,” he said on “Squawk Box.”

 

Gottlieb, the former commissioner of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, was responding to a warning put out last week by the World Health Organization, which later clarified its position.

The WHO on Friday advised governments against issuing so-called immunity passports to people who have antibodies for Covid-19 to travel or return to work “assuming that they are protected against re-infection.”

“There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection,” the organization wrote in a scientific brief dated April 24.

In follow-up tweets Saturday, the WHO clarified that it also expects Covid-19 antibodies will “provide some level of protection.” 

 

 

[oldmanfan]

4 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

 

Regarding  our discussion:

 

 

 

Lot of stuff we just don't know for sure about yet.

[Magox]

20 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Lot of stuff we just don't know for sure about yet.

Yep, things are happening in real time and decisions that policy makers are enacting have profound impacts on people’s health and livelihoods and they should be taking in the data and making the best decisions with what is coming in.  We don’t have the luxury to wait until things are conclusive.

[Magox]

More serological antibody testing data is coming in through New York.   It's even more widespread than their initial findings according to their testing.

 

 

Quote

 

New York's second round of testing included a more-than-doubled sample size (7,500). Antibodies turned up in 14.9 percent of the samples, meaning those people had coronavirus at some point and recovered. That's a full percentage point higher than in Cuomo's first round of testing, which saw 13.9 percent of positives samples. It could mean nearly 3 million New Yorkers have been infected at one point or another; many may have never known.

Men were more likely (16.9 percent) to test positive for the antibody than women (13.1 percent). As with the initial round of testing, New York City samples had the highest positivity rate (24.7 percent), followed by Long Island (14.4 percent) and Westchester/Rockland counties (15.1 percent). The New York City number increased by more than three percentage points from the first round to the second, while Long Island's dipped by nearly three percentage points. Upstate, apart from the Hudson Valley area, sees much lower antibody numbers.

 

 

 

I've been saying it for a while now, by the time we get to the fall, New York City will be over 40%.    That along with all the measures that will be in place by then should provide a strong firewall for New York City.     Just pull out all the stops to protect the most vulnerable and get back to business.  That would be the intelligent data driven approach.

[Cinga]

21 hours ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

That is a tough one. If you live in a nursing home, and are recovered enough from COVID-19 to not be in the hospital, where exactly should you go? Many nursing homes are rehab centers, too.

(And I ask this as someone whose father is in a NYS nursing home, and who has had several staff cases in the home where he resides.)
 

Not to sound harsh, but I would say absolutely NOT! Problem in a nursing home, and probably the main reason we have so many infected, is that most of them have a single tied together air system. So even if you only have one infected, lock them in their room, it WILL spread through the air system. Their not isolated systems like a hospital ward or even a darn hotel. 

 

We are really really screwing up in nursing homes and we don't need a Cuomo multi-million dollar study to find out how.

Edited April 27, 2020 by Cinga