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Cripple Creek

2020 Draft, biggest bust potential

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On 4/3/2020 at 12:49 PM, Kirby Jackson said:

That’s the point. A school doesn’t determine if a guy will be good or bad. It’s a player and their traits. Jamarcus Russell played at LSU. He was the 1st pick and a massive bust. Ben played at Miami of Ohio and is going to the HOF. That doesn’t mean that Burrow will be terrible and the next QB from Miami will go to the HOF. What AJ McCarron has done as a pro has nothing to do with Tua. 

 

I'm not just going by what McCarron did, I'm going by what every Alabama QB over the last 40 years has done.  Alabama has been at the top or near the top of the mountain for a long time, especially the last 10 years where they've been men amonsgst boys.  Bama QB's always look really good in college, but don't pan out in the NFL, but I feel the same way about a few other schools too.  All I'm saying is that what a QB does while playing for a team that could legitimately challenge the worst team in the NFL doesn't prove to me that he's going to be a star when he starts playing against men, maybe I'll be very wrong, we'll see. Its just an opinion.

 

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On 4/3/2020 at 7:31 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

Point is they run out quite fast those types. Chaisson is my last first round grade. 20th on my big board. 

 Do you normally have 32 ish 1st round grades? 

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3 minutes ago, Watkins101 said:

 Do you normally have 32 ish 1st round grades? 

 

No I normally end up with right around 20. I think it was 20 last year. 2018 was a only about 18, 2017 was more like 24.... So 20/21 is about average. And the I normally have around half a dozen borderline 1st/2nds. At this moment that number is lower. I only have 4 borderline 1sts. That probably reflects my view that this isn't the strongest draft at the top end. I think it is a deep draft at a few spots but I wouldn't call it a top heavy draft.

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1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No I normally end up with right around 20. I think it was 20 last year. 2018 was a only about 18, 2017 was more like 24.... So 20/21 is about average. And the I normally have around half a dozen borderline 1st/2nds. At this moment that number is lower. I only have 4 borderline 1sts. That probably reflects my view that this isn't the strongest draft at the top end. I think it is a deep draft at a few spots but I wouldn't call it a top heavy draft.

This always confuses me when people constantly have less than 30 first round grades. Doesn't that mean that it is the standard is wrong? After all, there is always 32 picks, shouldn't there be around 32 first round grades, some years more or less, due to having  a stronger or weaker draft? Or am I just missing something?

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On 4/3/2020 at 11:11 AM, Cripple Creek said:

My thread, my rules.  

 

A bust shall be defined as any player who does not come close to reaching his draft potential, irregardless of reason (drugs, injury, etc.).

 

We shall go with the top 20 from this list: https://ftw.usatoday.com/gallery/2020-nfl-draft-big-board-consensus-top-40

  1. Joe Burrow
  2. Chase Young
  3. Tua Tagovailoa
  4. Jeff Okuda
  5. Isaiah Simmons
  6. Derrick Brown
  7. Justin Herbert
  8. Jedrick Wills Jr.
  9. Mekhi Becton
  10. Tristan Wirfs
  11. CeeDee Lamb
  12. Andrew Thomas
  13. Javon Kinlaw
  14. Jerry Jeudy
  15. K'Lavon Chaisson
  16. Henry Ruggs III
  17. Jordan Love
  18. Xavier McKinney
  19. CJ Henderson
  20. Justin Jefferson

 

So, of that group, who has, to you, the biggest bust potential?

 

I'll go first:

 

Tua.  I wouldn't touch him with @GunnerBill 's 10' pole.  Injury concerns are huge for me and no hands on medical evaluation make this a very risky move.  It's one I wouldn't have made prior to our current mess, but now?

 

Who ya got?

 

Only one choice per user.  No hemming, no hawing.  Put your cajones on the chopping block.

 

Congrats to @GunnerBill for his 10' pole! His wife must be very happy. 

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29 minutes ago, Amaru523 said:

 

I'm not just going by what McCarron did, I'm going by what every Alabama QB over the last 40 years has done.  Alabama has been at the top or near the top of the mountain for a long time, especially the last 10 years where they've been men amonsgst boys.  Bama QB's always look really good in college, but don't pan out in the NFL, but I feel the same way about a few other schools too.  All I'm saying is that what a QB does while playing for a team that could legitimately challenge the worst team in the NFL doesn't prove to me that he's going to be a star when he starts playing against men, maybe I'll be very wrong, we'll see. Its just an opinion.

 

I guess the point I’m trying to make is they are all different. That’s why I used the Miami of Ohio example. Over the last 40 years they produced a HOF QB and a bunch of guys. It’s not the school that determines your future success. It’s your physical and mental skills. Tua has pinpoint accuracy, mobility, a big enough arm, is the son of a coach, and is elite with his play fakes. He has all of the traits of a successful modern QB (with the exception of his injury history).

 

I’m not saying that Tua will be great or terrible (or anywhere in between). All that I’m saying is that playing at Alabama isn’t a factor in determining his success. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Watkins101 said:

This always confuses me when people constantly have less than 30 first round grades. Doesn't that mean that it is the standard is wrong? After all, there is always 32 picks, shouldn't there be around 32 first round grades, some years more or less, due to having  a stronger or weaker draft? Or am I just missing something?

Not speaking for Gunner but I think that you grade each player individually. You don’t say “i have to have 32 1st round grades, 32 2nd round grades, etc...” You ask yourself, “is this guy a 1st round talent compared to other 1st round talents?”’
 

I may be off here but part of the reason is that you are trying to manage your own draft. Say you have pick 24 and have 20 first round grades and 40 2nd round grades. By the time your pick comes all 20 of your 1st round grades are off the board. You get offered pick 46 and pick 60 for pick 24. You already have pick 56. You may decide, based on the actual players left, not just the draft value chart, that 46, 56, & 60 is better for you than 24 & 56. The same can be done in reverse for moving up. This is something that the Bills have done a lot of (Knox, Ford, Edmunds, Dawkins). They try to get a guy before a perceived gap starts to the next tier.

Edited by Kirby Jackson
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I would not even be thinking Tua if not for his injury history but it is always there in the back of my mind. I would neither be surprised to see him become a star nor surprised to see him flame out due to injury, ala RG III. That said, my choice is Justin Herbert. The QB failure rate can't be discounted, IMO. Prove the haters wrong, kid...unless, of course, you end up within the division. In that case, may you be selling insurance within three years.

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Just now, ExWNYer said:

I would not even be thinking Tua if not for his injury history but it is always there in the back of my mind. I would neither be surprised to see him become a star nor surprised to see him flame out due to injury, ala RG III. That said, my choice is Justin Herbert. The QB failure rate can't be discounted, IMO. Prove the haters wrong, kid...unless, of course, you end up within the division. In that case, may you be selling insurance within three years.

What’s wrong with selling insurance?!? 😂😂

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On 4/3/2020 at 1:00 PM, Kirby Jackson said:

Do you trust Miami of Ohio QBs in the NFL? 

I wouldn’t turn my back on a certain one in a public restroom.

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Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

What’s wrong with selling insurance?!? 😂😂

 

Nothing...I'm all for it! I don't think anyone ever beat the Bills selling insurance. 😁

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26 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

 

Congrats to @GunnerBill for his 10' pole! His wife must be very happy. 

 

The best way to keep a wife happy is not to have a wife. I have perfected that. 

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Posted (edited)
41 minutes ago, Watkins101 said:

This always confuses me when people constantly have less than 30 first round grades. Doesn't that mean that it is the standard is wrong? After all, there is always 32 picks, shouldn't there be around 32 first round grades, some years more or less, due to having  a stronger or weaker draft? Or am I just missing something?

 

So there is two things I always say when I get this question. 

 

The first is always about the objectivity. Some drafts are better than others. If you decide you must always have 32 first round grades you will have guys who are "first round grades" who in another draft might be mid second rounders. 

 

Your point seems to be well that is fine but if you are constantly ending up with way below 32 your objective standard is too harsh but to me it is about where the tiers are in that draft. It would be neat if the 32 guys taken in the first round were clearly a tier above the guys taken 33-64. It just never works out that way. Often the difference between a guy taken at 27 and a guy taken at 37 is significantly smaller than the difference between a guy taken at 17 and a guy taken at 27. The 20 guys I have first round grades on are the guys that I would absolutely not leave on the board to take a player ranked outside of that 20. Then I have 4 or 5 borderlines. Those guys are the ones I am feeling are probably deserving if a first round pick but who in the right circumstances (maybe dire need in another position, maybe specific scheme fit for a specific team) I could leave on the board to go in another direction. Quite often once you get to the last 5 or 6 picks of round 1 you have a lot more guys clustered together in the same grade range and then for teams it does become "okay where do we have a need on the roster or what is the positional value of a guard vs a tackle" for example. 

 

I hope that helps. And again I only speak for myself here. Others may have different approaches. I read up on a few things before I started in 2014 but I have developed my approach as I have gone along since then. 

Edited by GunnerBill

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Posted (edited)

Biggest bust potential?

 

Hmm. I'll say whoever  this guy drafts.

 

giphy.gif

 

Edited by DJB

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I’m going to throw Denzel Mims out there, buyer beware. His highlights are awesome and he tested great at the combine but he also has a crazy amount of drops, big red flag. 

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Justin Herbert = 2020 version of Blaine Gabbert

Mekhi Beckton = Even though he was amazing at the combine for a guy his size, he reminds me of our own former OL'man Mike Williams

 

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20 minutes ago, CapeBreton said:

I’m going to throw Denzel Mims out there, buyer beware. His highlights are awesome and he tested great at the combine but he also has a crazy amount of drops, big red flag. 

 

Yea. @Blokestradamus and I were discussing the other day. No way he is a first round talent. I have him as a round 3 guy, and Blokes liked him even less than that :D

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1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Not speaking for Gunner but I think that you grade each player individually. You don’t say “inhave to have 32 1st round grades, 32 2nd round grades, etc...” You ask yourself, “is this guy a 1st round talent compared to other 1st round talents?”’

 

 

I say it all the time Kirbs.... when you are grading a player you are not just grading him against this year's class. You are grading him against every player you have ever graded.

 

As an example let's look at someone like CJ Henderson who I have as an early 2nd guy and I am lower than the consensus on, I have to ask myself where does he rank when I put him against someone like Byron Murphy who I had as a late first last year. And my conclusion was I felt safer with Murphy. Murphy's floor to me was a starting corner in the league for 10 years (though must be said I didn't love him as a rookie I was disappointed with how he played). CJ Henderson's floor is Artie Burns like... a guy who gets plenty of chances because he is a first round pick but never quite nails down a starting job because while you see the physical traits flash from time to time the mental side consistently finds him out.

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18 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Yea. @Blokestradamus and I were discussing the other day. No way he is a first round talent. I have him as a round 3 guy, and Blokes liked him even less than that :D

 

There's someone lower than him on that list you gave me but, for so many reasons, I'm not saying 😂

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The one guy I DO NOT get who has love is just that........... Jordan Love.

 

I have seen a lot of Utah State games and I have always come away totally unimpressed by Love.

 

He is EJ Manuel 2.0 if there ever was an EJ Manuel 2.0.

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