shoshin Posted June 18, 2020 Share Posted June 18, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said: I agree. My midweek rise comment is become have said, and rightfully so, that there’s a lag in reporting over the weekend. That’s not because of the virus, but because apparently the coroners get to have weekends off too. This week however I kept waiting for the post weekend spike and never happened. The weekend thing is one of the most consistent and amusing data trends. One thing this entire pandemic system has revealed (no ***** Sherlock coming) is how awful our medical reporting is, and that is in spite of the minutia of reporting that providers have to do. I hope that we as a country come up with a better system so that the next time this happens, we can make more informed decisions. I will use hospitalizations as the latest and most critical example. Most states have this data, but many (like PA that I know well), were klooging it together for weeks and only just now have it together in a close to real-time basis. And it would be great if those data streams fed a central one so we could see if we have statewide issues or regional ones, ie, does what's happening in Philadelphia extend to nearby Camden NJ or are their situations different (turns out they were pretty different but it took a long time to get to see that). Edited June 18, 2020 by shoshin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshin Posted June 18, 2020 Share Posted June 18, 2020 Arizona total people hospitalized with Covid still increasing at a high rate. Now 50% higher than two weeks ago. Definitely a state that needs some good news. FL and TX, while seeing rises, are in nowhere near the same situation as AZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted June 18, 2020 Share Posted June 18, 2020 1 minute ago, shoshin said: The weekend thing is one of the most consistent and amusing data trends. One thing this entire pandemic system has revealed (no ***** Sherlock coming) is how awful our medical reporting is, and that is in spite of the minutia of reporting that providers have to do. I hope that we as a country come up with a better system so that the next time this happens, we can make more informed decisions. I will use hospitalizations as the latest and most critical example. Most states have this data, but many (like PA that I know well), were klooging it together for weeks and only just now have it together in a close to real-time basis. And it would be great if those data streams fed a central one so we could see if we have statewide issues or regional ones, ie, does what's happening in Philadelphia extend to nearby Camden NJ or are their situations different (turns out they were pretty different but it took a long time to get to see that). This where you and I have taken a different approach to the trending (but that’s OK). I’ve focused on a single consistent source for my data because I’ve felt it took one variable out of the equation. I chose Worldometer because it’s international and hopefully not so wound up in domestic politics...and because they’re daily tables are super easy to read. And I’ve focused solely on deaths, since deaths are not only the worst result of the disease but because I figured you couldn’t really play too much politics with deaths. You’re either dead or not. On the other hand, Cases are very subjective because case counts rely completely on testing counts which is the most widely swinging variable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshin Posted June 18, 2020 Share Posted June 18, 2020 (edited) 18 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said: This where you and I have taken a different approach to the trending (but that’s OK). I’ve focused on a single consistent source for my data because I’ve felt it took one variable out of the equation. I chose Worldometer because it’s international and hopefully not so wound up in domestic politics...and because they’re daily tables are super easy to read. And I’ve focused solely on deaths, since deaths are not only the worst result of the disease but because I figured you couldn’t really play too much politics with deaths. You’re either dead or not. On the other hand, Cases are very subjective because case counts rely completely on testing counts which is the most widely swinging variable. I don't think we disagree here. I said early on that the only reliable statistic was deaths and bemoaned that it was the only reliable thing (though many here shot it down). But it's a trailing statistic and by the time you see deaths rising, you've lost weeks of potential remedy, which is why backtracking in time to hospitalizations is a next critical statistic to monitor. Cases still suck until we can feel confident that we are testing almost anyone at risk of infection (not everyone). Edited June 18, 2020 by shoshin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted June 18, 2020 Share Posted June 18, 2020 1 minute ago, shoshin said: I don't think we disagree here. I said early on that the only reliable statistic was deaths and bemoaned that it was the only reliable thing (though many here shot it down). But it's a trailing statistic and by the time you see deaths rising, you've lost weeks of potential remedy, which is why backtracking in time to hospitalizations is a next critical statistic to monitor. Cases still suck until we can feel confident that we are testing almost anyone at risk of infection (not everyone). Then you should appreciate this op-ed Quote Here we go again. The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation has issued a new forecast that Covid-19 fatalities would spike over the summer in states that have moved faster to reopen. Cue the media drumbeat for another lockdown. Maybe someone should first explain why the models were wrong about so much the last time. Take New York, where Gov. Andrew Cuomo locked down the state in mid-March based on dire warnings. His public health experts projected the state would need as many as 140,000 hospital beds and 40,000 intensive care units—two to three times more regular hospital beds and 10 times more ICU beds than were available. The UW model forecast that 49,000 regular beds and 8,000 ICU beds would be needed at the peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshin Posted June 18, 2020 Share Posted June 18, 2020 (edited) 13 minutes ago, GG said: Then you should appreciate this op-ed Yeah, but I'm reluctant to ***** on the modelers. It's a no-win situation with a new virus, rapidly changing data, and new treatments weekly. The scientific models have swung about but there have been several studies showing most of them safely within their margins of error, but all the public seems to note is the line through the middle of the error bars. This page has a good interactive graph. If you look at the models from mid April, almost all of them predicted that we'd be crossing 100K deaths around May 30, which is pretty accurate. Edited June 18, 2020 by shoshin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted June 18, 2020 Share Posted June 18, 2020 1 minute ago, shoshin said: Yeah, but I'm reluctant to ***** on the modelers. It's a no-win situation with a new virus, rapidly changing data, and new treatments weekly. The scientific models have swung about but there have been several studies showing most of them safely within their margins of error, but all the public seems to note is the line through the middle of the error bars. The modelers are out of the ivory towers now, and should absolutely be held to account because these models are being used to make life and death decisions by policy makers. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshin Posted June 18, 2020 Share Posted June 18, 2020 (edited) 2 minutes ago, GG said: The modelers are out of the ivory towers now, and should absolutely be held to account because these models are being used to make life and death decisions by policy makers. Take a look at my edit. Someone has to do the modeling and it's not been as wrong as everyone thinks. Some were off, some were not. Welcome to modeling. The good models should get more attention. How's the upcoming hurricane season going to go? Edited June 18, 2020 by shoshin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Gal Posted June 18, 2020 Share Posted June 18, 2020 7 minutes ago, shoshin said: Yeah, but I'm reluctant to ***** on the modelers. It's a no-win situation with a new virus, rapidly changing data, and new treatments weekly. The scientific models have swung about but there have been several studies showing most of them safely within their margins of error, but all the public seems to note is the line through the middle of the error bars. This page has a good interactive graph. If you look at the models from mid April, almost all of them predicted that we'd be crossing 100K deaths around May 30, which is pretty accurate. There were a few problems with the modelers, but the biggest negative takeaway is... who believes the models next time? Now, China not giving accurate data definitely hurt them (and continues to hurt the world), and they had only so much information to work with, but when you close down the world, you better be right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spartacus Posted June 18, 2020 Share Posted June 18, 2020 Just now, shoshin said: Take a look at my edit. Someone has to do the modeling and it's not been as wrong as everyone thinks. Some were off, some were not. Welcome to modeling. The good models should get more attention. How's the upcoming hurricane season going to go? 2 million dead in the US there is not a main stream supported model that has come close to predicting reality even after 6 months of real cases, the models still have not been adjusted to reflect reality but not a surprise as the key variables have all been intentionally skewed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Gal Posted June 18, 2020 Share Posted June 18, 2020 6 minutes ago, GG said: The modelers are out of the ivory towers now, and should absolutely be held to account because these models are being used to make life and death decisions by policy makers. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshin Posted June 18, 2020 Share Posted June 18, 2020 (edited) 9 minutes ago, spartacus said: 2 million dead in the US That was without distancing and really early numbers out of China only. Modeling a brand new virus's impact is a tough game, but we still need to try to do it. Modelers predicted high (most in the 300K range very early) and deaths came in low...imagine if modelers predicted 15,000 deaths by June and we were looking at 350,000 because no one took any precautions. Quote there is not a main stream supported model that has come close to predicting reality even after 6 months of real cases, the models still have not been adjusted to reflect reality but not a surprise as the key variables have all been intentionally skewed See the link I gave that compares the models over time. Most have been accurate since March/April and well within their error bars. Lots of articles on this topic. It's impressive that they came up with accurate models in just 2-3 months. Edited June 18, 2020 by shoshin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillStime Posted June 18, 2020 Share Posted June 18, 2020 If only Trump acted when his intelligence told him in November. So sad - Trump denied and Americans died. And shocker: Poll: Americans not buying White House spin on coronavirus Wonder why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted June 18, 2020 Share Posted June 18, 2020 Scott Gotlieb, purveyor of panic porn. I don't believe he is looking at these data trends at as granular of a level as he should be. "on the cusp of losing control" He mentions both Texas and Florida. Texas and Florida have both provided explanations that their ICU usage have gone down and that the age demographic of those that are confirmed positives have gone down. Point aside but none the less related, as this issue evolves so do the added metrics that should be viewed do as well. Now that there is strong evidence that contact tracing and targeted testing of industries/prisons and other "vital" places are being more widely implemented, it has captured more asymptomatic carriers lowering the average age of confirmed infected COVID people. This dilutes the positive test rate numbers. Add that with the increased testing, if you focus just on confirmed positive tests and positive test rate, it no longer gives you an accurate enough depiction of what is going on. The things as of right now that I think are most important to view are: Total confirmed positive tests positive test rate average age of confirmed infections Hospital COVID census Hospital new COVID admissions ICU COVID usage Ventilator COVID usage Deaths With all that said, it doesn't really matter. It's all noise because hospital capacity is nowhere near being maxed out. This is media panic porn. But I can't deny, I love data and metrics and the whole analysis of it. Sort of like a past time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted June 18, 2020 Share Posted June 18, 2020 37 minutes ago, BillStime said: If only Trump acted when his intelligence told him in November. So sad - Trump denied and Americans died. And shocker: Poll: Americans not buying White House spin on coronavirus Wonder why? Because NYS sent sick people to extermination camps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted June 18, 2020 Share Posted June 18, 2020 (edited) There are millions of people out there that believe most of Hollywood is under house arrest due to underage sex trafficking and don't believe COVID-19 is real. That's America in 2020. Social media is the danger. Edited June 18, 2020 by Buffalo_Stampede Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted June 18, 2020 Share Posted June 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: There are millions of people out there that believe most of Hollywood is under house arrest due to underage sex trafficking and don't believe COVID-19 is real. That's America in 2020. Social media is the danger. Incredible irony. Chef’s kiss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshin Posted June 18, 2020 Share Posted June 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Magox said: Scott Gotlieb, purveyor of panic porn. I don't believe he is looking at these data trends at as granular of a level as he should be. "on the cusp of losing control" He mentions both Texas and Florida. Texas and Florida have both provided explanations that their ICU usage have gone down and that the age demographic of those that are confirmed positives have gone down. Point aside but none the less related, as this issue evolves so do the added metrics that should be viewed do as well. Now that there is strong evidence that contact tracing and targeted testing of industries/prisons and other "vital" places are being more widely implemented, it has captured more asymptomatic carriers lowering the average age of confirmed infected COVID people. This dilutes the positive test rate numbers. Add that with the increased testing, if you focus just on confirmed positive tests and positive test rate, it no longer gives you an accurate enough depiction of what is going on. The things as of right now that I think are most important to view are: Total confirmed positive tests positive test rate average age of confirmed infections Hospital COVID census Hospital new COVID admissions ICU COVID usage Ventilator COVID usage Deaths With all that said, it doesn't really matter. It's all noise because hospital capacity is nowhere near being maxed out. This is media panic porn. But I can't deny, I love data and metrics and the whole analysis of it. Sort of like a past time. Depends on the place. Things are a bit more serious in Arizona, and their case jumps started before Florida. I understand DeSantis's point but I also think there's something to watch in FL and TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warren Zevon Posted June 18, 2020 Share Posted June 18, 2020 34 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: There are millions of people out there that believe most of Hollywood is under house arrest due to underage sex trafficking and don't believe COVID-19 is real. That's America in 2020. Social media is the danger. There are people on this forum accusing Chief Justice Roberts of being a pedophile with their only evidence being the recent DACA court ruling. It's sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted June 18, 2020 Share Posted June 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, shoshin said: Depends on the place. Things are a bit more serious in Arizona, and their case jumps started before Florida. I understand DeSantis's point but I also think there's something to watch in FL and TX. I only watch it because I like following data. There truly is very little to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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