The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[billsfan1959]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

Trump made the right call in restricting flights from China in late January.  He then screwed up by downplaying the threat for the next month or so comparing it to the common flu.  His opponent will have many ads in this time period to attack him with.  The federal agencies that are supposed to prepare for this also initially screwed up.  I think the magnitude of this thing caught us off guard when it shouldn't have.  I think he's done a fine job since then however both on messaging and passing legislation to help us get through this.

 

Hey Doc, It caught everyone off guard; however, the data shows this country has handled it better than virtually any other country out there. You saw the data I put in the post you quoted. Using the same countries, If you look at the data below you will see the date each country surpassed the number of cases equal to .002 of the population. If you look at the next fourteen days for each of the countries, you will see the United States has the 2nd highest percentage in the increase in confirmed cases, because we did more testing during that that period than any other country. Even though we had the 2nd highest percentage increase in confirmed cases, we had the 2nd lowest increase in percentage of deaths (just behind Germany). That tells me this administration and everyone at the state and city levels have been doing all we could have asked from them, given the circumstances. Hindsight truly is 20/20.

 

Country	Population	Date Reached .002 (of total population) Cases	Death rate at .002 cases	Cases at 14 days from .002	Cases per Capita at 14 days from .002	Deaths at 14 days from .002	Death rate at 14 days from .002	14 day rise in death rate from .002
Italy	60000000	3/1/2020	2.41%	24747	0.0412%	1809	7.31%	4.90%
Spain	46000000	3/9/2020	2.44%	35136	0.0764%	2311	6.58%	4.14%
France	65000000	3/9/2020	2.12%	19856	0.0305%	860	4.33%	2.21%
Belgium	11000000	3/9/2020	0.00%	3743	0.0340%	88	2.35%	2.35%
Germany	83000000	3/11/2020	0.15%	37323	0.0450%	206	0.55%	0.40%
UK	67000000	3/15/2020	2.52%	19522	0.0291%	1228	6.29%	3.77%
United States	331000000	3/18/2020	1.60%	189633	0.0573%	4081	2.15%	0.55%

 

20 minutes ago, Gary Busey said:

 

Agree with the bolded - good post

 

Gary, see above.

Edited April 1, 2020 by billsfan1959

[Warren Zevon]

It did not catch everyone off guard. We should be testing more and widespread testing should have been available in the beginning of March - instead the administration promised us drive through testing locations at Wal-Mart parking lots and a website where you could find out if you need/schedule a test - neither of which happened.

 

Until our death rate is below the 1% scientists have predicted Covid-19 should be, there is more we can and should be doing.

[billsfan1959]

12 minutes ago, Gary Busey said:

It did not catch everyone off guard. We should be testing more and widespread testing should have been available in the beginning of March - instead the administration promised us drive through testing locations at Wal-Mart parking lots and a website where you could find out if you need/schedule a test - neither of which happened.

 

Actually, Gary, every country out there responded the same and have the same or worse data as the US (South Korea is an outlier and you cannot believe anything from China). So, if we were caught off guard, everyone was. I put the data in the posts above.

 

During the fourteen day period after each country reached .002+ % of cases per capita (number chosen because that is a significant number of cases for each of the countries listed), respectively, we conducted more testing than any other country.

 

1. Please take the time to post data that shows lack of action made this situation worse.

2. Please explain how widespread testing early would have affected the number of cases or number of deaths.

 

You like to constantly blame and make accusation, yet you never actually put any type of data or substantive information in your posts. So, please, take the time and answer my questions if you want to have an honest dialogue.

Edited April 1, 2020 by billsfan1959

[Warren Zevon]

Just now, billsfan1959 said:

 

 

2. Please explain how widespread testing early affected the number of cases or number of deaths.

 

 

 

Germany from your chart is the best example. 

 

Where is testing per capita on your chart?

[KRC]

For those interested: The Economic Impact of Coronavirus

 

https://onlinemba.illinois.edu/covid-19-webinar-series/

 

{See video at the bottom of the page}

 

This guy was my economics professor in grad school.

[billsfan1959]

Just now, Gary Busey said:

 

Germany from your chart is the best example. 

 

And what does it show? That we were literally .15% behind them during the same fourteen day window I described: a 55% increase vs a .40% increase. That's pretty close. So, if you are using Germany as an example of what was done well, then we are right with them.

 

How about you actually do some work on your own to prove your points?

[Warren Zevon]

1 minute ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

And what does it show? That we were literally .15% behind them during the same fourteen day window I described: a 55% increase vs a .40% increase. That's pretty close. So, if you are using Germany as an example of what was done well, then we are right with them.

 

What is the testing per capita when comparing Germany and the USA? That's the missing variable. 

[billsfan1959]

7 minutes ago, Gary Busey said:

 

What is the testing per capita when comparing Germany and the USA? That's the missing variable. 

 

Like I said Gary. Try doing a little work on your own. If that stat is important to you, look it up.  Stop being so intellectually lazy.

 

While you are at it, why don't you answer the questions I asked you above:

 

1. Please take the time to post data that shows lack of action made this situation worse.

2. Please explain how widespread testing early would have affected the number of cases or number of deaths.

 

I'll wait.

Edited April 1, 2020 by billsfan1959

[3rdnlng]

30 minutes ago, Gary Busey said:

It did not catch everyone off guard. We should be testing more and widespread testing should have been available in the beginning of March - instead the administration promised us drive through testing locations at Wal-Mart parking lots and a website where you could find out if you need/schedule a test - neither of which happened.

 

Until our death rate is below the 1% scientists have predicted Covid-19 should be, there is more we can and should be doing.

This is from 2 1/2 weeks ago. 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/drive-through-coronavirus-tests-states-2020-3

 

Funny how a simple Google search proves you wrong.

[Warren Zevon]

26 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

2. Please explain how widespread testing early would have affected the number of cases or number of deaths.

 

That stat is important because with out it your chart lacks context. If you want me to take your chart seriously, which you're asking people to do, you could provide that stat. I don't have the numbers but I read yesterday Germany is 3rd in tests per capita behind Australia and South Korea. The sooner and more often people are tested, the sooner you find out who has the disease and the sooner you can isolate those people.

 

18 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

This is from 2 1/2 weeks ago. 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/drive-through-coronavirus-tests-states-2020-3

 

Funny how a simple Google search proves you wrong.

 

Trump's team said there would be a website up and running by that following Sunday and there would be drive thru testing in Wal-mart parking lots all over America. That was a false promise.

Edited April 1, 2020 by Gary Busey

[SoCal Deek]

21 minutes ago, Gary Busey said:

 

What is the testing per capita when comparing Germany and the USA? That's the missing variable. 

I read all of this and think you people would make horrible scientists. All of this talk about testing is nice but it is NOT the be all and end all of the problem. The experts can’t tell you if the virus is the same strain or potency all over the world. They don’t really know how it spreads. They don’t even know how it started. And, most importantly they don’t have a cure or even an agreed upon treatment. So...test all you want! But until this country is prepared to drag its citizens away into a full quarantine detention center, testing is just another statistic like yards gained in a football game or your batting average against left handlers. It doesn’t change the virus and it doesn’t create a cure! It just gives you all a nice statistic to follow; like the Dow Jones.

[Warren Zevon]

1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

I read all of this and think you people would make horrible scientists. All of this talk about testing is nice but it is NOT the be all and end all of the problem. The experts can’t tell you if the virus is the same strain or potency all over the world. They don’t really know how it spreads. They don’t even know how it started. And, most importantly they don’t have a cure or even an agreed upon treatment. So...test all you want! But until this country is prepared to drag its citizens away into a full quarantine detention center, testing is just another statistic like yards gained in a football game or your batting average against left handlers. It doesn’t change the virus and it doesn’t create a cure! It just gives you all a nice statistic to follow; like the Dow Jones.

 

Those statistics will guide the country into re-opening at the appropriate time. They are extremely important. 

[SoCal Deek]

2 minutes ago, Gary Busey said:

 

Those statistics will guide the country into re-opening at the appropriate time. They are extremely important. 

If you say so. Those statistics could be wildly inaccurate. If the disease is as contagious as they believe then you have just as good of a chance of contracting it five minutes after testing as you did five minutes before you were tested. In fact they may eventually discover that those very testing sites were the primary cause of the spread.

[Warren Zevon]

1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

In fact they may eventually discover that those very testing sites were the primary cause of the spread.

 

That would be China, but sure

[billsfan1959]

Just now, Gary Busey said:

 

That stat is important because with out it your chart lacks context. If you want me to take your chart seriously, which you're asking people to do, you could provide that stat. I don't have the numbers but I read yesterday Germany is 3rd in tests per capita behind Australia and South Korea. The sooner and more often people are tested, the sooner you find out who has the disease and the sooner you can isolate those people.

 

 

Trump said about a month ago there would be a website up and running by that following Sunday and there would be drive thru testing in Wal-mart parking lots all over America. That was a false promise.

 

So, just how do you think this country could have provided the testing, per capita, it would have taken early on to identify people who already were not at the point of seeking medical attention? Do you even comprehend the magnitude of that?

 

Let's just, for the sake of argument, say that every country out there has done more testing per capita than the US. Yet, we still, somehow, have better death rate numbers than all of them outside of South Korea and pretty much right behind Germany. 

 

That's really the important stat, Gary. I don't care if every person in the US contracts the virus. What I care about is how many people die. 

 

I definitely would love to see the death rate below 1%; however, as of now you can't provide any data that shows we would have less deaths if Trump had acted sooner.

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, Gary Busey said:

 

That would be China, but sure

There....we found something to agree on. I knew we could.

[Tiberius]

 

 

1. Typhoid Mary's real name was Mary Mallon.

She was born on September 23, 1869, in Cookstown, a small village in the north of Ireland. Mallon’s hometown in County Tyrone was among one of Ireland’s poorest areas.

2. Only three confirmed deaths were linked to Typhoid Mary.

Mallon was presumed to have infected 51 people, and three of those illnesses resulted in death. Since she used a number of aliases, it’s possible the true death toll could have been higher. However, based on the confirmed fatalities, Typhoid Mary was not even the most lethal carrier of the typhoid germ in New York City’s history. In 1922, New Yorker Tony Labella, a food worker, reportedly caused two outbreaks that combined for more than 100 cases and five deaths.

3. She emigrated from Ireland as a teenager.

Mallon traveled by herself to start a new life in the United States in 1883. The teenager moved in with her aunt and uncle in New York City, and even as an adult Mallon never lost her lilting brogue.

4. Typhoid Mary was the picture of health.

Illustration of Typhoid Mary breaking skulls into a skillet, circa 1909. (Credit: Fotosearch/Getty Images)

Although she harbored the extremely contagious bacteria that cause typhoid fever, Mallon never demonstrated any of its symptoms—which include fever, headaches and diarrhea. Immune to the disease herself, Mallon was the first person in the United States identified as an asymptomatic carrier of the pathogen. “She denied ever having been sick with the disease, and it is likely she never knew she had it, suffering only a mild flu-like episode,” writes Judith Walzer Leavitt in her book Typhoid Mary: Captive to the Public’s Health. “The case is without parallel in medical records,” the San Jose Evening News reported in 1907. “Never has there been an instance, as the present, where a woman who never had typhoid fever should prove a veritable germ factory”

5. She spread disease as a cook for affluent families.

Like many single women who emigrated from Ireland, Mallon found work in America as a domestic servant. Perhaps fitting given her birth in a hamlet named Cookstown, she proved adept in the kitchen and cooked for some of New York City’s most elite families.

6. A sleuthing sanitary engineer tracked down Typhoid Mary.

When six members of wealthy banker Charles Warren’s household contracted typhoid fever while vacationing in Long Island’s Oyster Bay in the summer of 1906, the tony playground of New York’s rich and famous—and home to Theodore Roosevelt’s Summer White House—was taken aback. Typhoid fever was viewed as a disease of the crowded slums, associated with poverty and the lack of basic sanitation. Concerned that the outbreak would prevent him from leasing out his summer house again, Warren’s landlord hired George Soper, a freelance sanitary engineer who had investigated other sources of typhoid fever outbreaks, to determine the cause. Although everything from the house’s plumbing to the local shellfish supply came up negative, the dogged Soper found the cause—Mallon, the cook who had worked for the Warrens weeks before the outbreak. Soper researched Mallon’s employment history and found that seven families for whom she had cooked since 1900 had reported cases of typhoid fever, which had resulted in the infection of 22 people and the death of one girl.

7. A combination of peach ice cream and Mallon’s poor hand washing likely sparked typhoid fever outbreaks.

Mary Mallon in her hospital bed on North Brother Island, New York. (Credit: Bettmann/Corbis)

Doctors theorized that Mallon likely passed along typhoid germs by failing to vigorously scrub her hands before handling food. However, since the elevated temperatures necessary to cook food would have killed the bacteria, Soper wondered just how Mallon could have transferred the germs. He found the answer in one of Mallon’s most popular dessert dishes—ice cream with raw peaches cut up and frozen in it. “I suppose no better way could be found for a cook to cleanse her hands of microbes and infect a family,” Soper wrote.

[Warren Zevon]

8 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

So, just how do you think this country could have provided the testing, per capita, it would have taken early on to identify people who already were not at the point of seeking medical attention?

 

I'm not an expert. That's something a pandemic response team may have come up with a solution to, but early on there were simply not enough tests available to identify those people. You were only allowed to be tested if you came from a hot spot the previous 14 days and also had symptoms - unless of course you were a celebrity, politician, or athlete. 

 

There are still people who can't get tested today who are seeking medical attention.

Edited April 1, 2020 by Gary Busey

[GG]

50 minutes ago, Gary Busey said:

 

Germany from your chart is the best example. 

 

Where is testing per capita on your chart?

 

How is testing alone going to stem the disease?

[Nanker]

8 hours ago, Rob's House said:

 

Chinese New Year and Mardi Gras and Spring Break and NY Snowbirds Surely had NO effect on the contagion’s outbreak.
[#NYC officials/NO mayor/FL mayorsGOABOUTYOURNORMALLIVES]

 

But OrangeManBad. Yes. He’s the WORST fascist dictator in the history of fascist dictators at a time when the Left DEMANDS A Fascist Dictator!!!