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Dafan

Bills win out and they win the division?

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The East is in our control, if we win out? Even if NE wins over Cinci and Miami, we take the east with tie breakers I believe.  First tie breaker is head 2 head (which we split).  Second is division (which would both be 5-1).  And if I'm not mistaken 3rd is conference (Bills 9-3, Pats 8-4).

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From what I have read, it goes:

1) Head to head

2) Division

3) Common opponents

4) Conference wins

 

Not sure where we stand with common opponents.

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3 minutes ago, Dafan said:

The East is in our control, if we win out? Even if NE wins over Cinci and Miami, we take the east with tie breakers I believe.  First tie breaker is head 2 head (which we split).  Second is division (which would both be 5-1).  And if I'm not mistaken 3rd is conference (Bills 9-3, Pats 8-4).

 

No, conference is 4th. Common games is 3rd and we lose that to NE, apparently. We need to win out and they have to lose to either MIA or CIN.

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Just now, Mark Vader said:

What about common opponent?

I thought that was the 4th...maybe wrong

Just now, Dafan said:

I thought that was the 4th...maybe wrong

Crap...was wrong

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12 minutes ago, Dafan said:

I thought that was the 4th...maybe wrong

Crap...was wrong

Despite that, it's not out of the question.

 

Look at how the Bengals & Dolphins have been playing lately. They are not automatic wins anymore. The Patriots* are going to get a tough game from both of these teams.

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Takes about before in another thread. We have to win out. Pats have to lose two of three. 
Pretty sure that’s the scenario. 

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2 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:

Despite that, it's not out of the question.

 

Look at how the Bengals & Dolphins have been playing lately. They are not automatic wins anymore. The Patriots* are going to get a tough game from both of these teams.

The Pats* were just held to 16 points by a worse defense than the one that just held us to 17. Jus sayin'...

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5 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:

Despite that, it's not out of the question.

 

Look at how the Bengals & Dolphins have been playing lately. They are not automatic wins anymore. The Patriots* are going to get a tough game from both of these teams.

Andy Dalton to the rescue again?

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If we win out their is a good chance the Patriots are playing in the Wild Card round against us or the Titans/Texans or Steelers. Then they would have two road games if they are lucky enough to win the wild card. Would love to beat the Pats and give KC the #2 seed.

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Mods might want to create and pin a playoff scenario thread.

People are asking the same questions over and over.

FWIW

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2 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Andy Dalton to the rescue again?

Maybe. :rolleyes:

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4 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

Mods might want to create and pin a playoff scenario thread.

People are asking the same questions over and over.

FWIW

Time for the ‘lady yelling at cat’ meme.  😁

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20 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

If we win out their is a good chance the Patriots are playing in the Wild Card round against us or the Titans/Texans or Steelers. Then they would have two road games if they are lucky enough to win the wild card. Would love to beat the Pats and give KC the #2 seed.

Bills would be the two seed if they win out and won the division I believe. Not positive. Depends on the KC tiebreak if they win out. 

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3 minutes ago, Do The Reich Thing said:

Bills would be the two seed if they win out and won the division I believe. Not positive. Depends on the KC tiebreak if they win out. 

 

No. We would need New England to lose to either the Bengals or Dolphins. Could happen but not great odds. I'm sure Fitz would love to beat the Patriots week 17 though to give the Bills the division. I think another round of charity donations would be in order.

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Common opponents I believe got us in the playoffs in ‘17 despite a worse conference record.  Makes sense that the same rule would come back to haunt us. 

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1 hour ago, Mark Vader said:

Despite that, it's not out of the question.

 

Look at how the Bengals & Dolphins have been playing lately. They are not automatic wins anymore. The Patriots* are going to get a tough game from both of these teams.

Actually, I just watched the Dolphins/Jets game on Gamepass, and... yeesh... the Dolphins are bad. Ryan Fitzpatrick is carrying that team, and that is the weirdest thing I have written in a while. Their RBs managed just 53 yards in 19 carries. Fitz was their leading rusher with seven carries for 65 yards, and that is the second weirdest thing I have written in a while. And, he threw 21/37 for 245 yards, but nobody could get it into the end zone. They scored 21 points on field goals only. And, their defensive secondary is a joke. Brady* could throw left-handed and pick them apart. 

 

 

Edited by Rocky Landing

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Why not look up the actual tie breaker rules instead of guessing?  And this has been discussed for a couple of weeks.  Common opponents goes before conference record.  The only ways Bills win division is 1. Have a better record than Patriots 2. Tie with Patriots and have a better Division record - which means they need to lose to Miami and Bills need to win out.  

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1 minute ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Why not look up the actual tie breaker rules instead of guessing?  And this has been discussed for a couple of weeks.  Common opponents goes before conference record.  The only ways Bills win division is 1. Have a better record than Patriots 2. Tie with Patriots and have a better Division record - which means they need to lose to Miami and Bills need to win out.  

 

Ideal outcome:

 

WEEK 15

Bills steamroll Pittsburgh. 

Pats squeak past Cincy. 

 

WEEK 16

Bills suffocate the Patriots with intense pressure on defense, and long drives on offense.  Bills defense feasts on Brady. You can see on his face that he's thinking retirement. He looks like a 43 year old man out there.

 

WEEK 17

Bills beat Jets. 

Patriots need to beat the Dolphins to avoid losing the division, but they get frustrated early and Fitz plays lights out... Miami steals the game as a spoiler. Bills / Dolphins rivalry is officially pronounced dead.... it's been dead that way since 2000 or so but such an outcome would almost create a type of gratitude-based friendship like we have with the Bengals. 

 

And just like that, the Bills are AFC East champions. The beginning of a new reign.

 

WILDCARD WEEKEND

Bills @ 12-4 get a home playoff game as the #3 seed... and the first playoff win in a generation. 

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1 hour ago, GregPersons said:

 

Ideal outcome:

 

WEEK 15

Bills steamroll Pittsburgh. 

Pats squeak past Cincy. 

 

WEEK 16

Bills suffocate the Patriots with intense pressure on defense, and long drives on offense.  Bills defense feasts on Brady. You can see on his face that he's thinking retirement. He looks like a 43 year old man out there.

 

WEEK 17

Bills beat Jets. 

Patriots need to beat the Dolphins to avoid losing the division, but they get frustrated early and Fitz plays lights out... Miami steals the game as a spoiler. Bills / Dolphins rivalry is officially pronounced dead.... it's been dead that way since 2000 or so but such an outcome would almost create a type of gratitude-based friendship like we have with the Bengals. 

 

And just like that, the Bills are AFC East champions. The beginning of a new reign.

 

WILDCARD WEEKEND

Bills @ 12-4 get a home playoff game as the #3 seed... and the first playoff win in a generation. 

If we end up winning the east I think there's a good chance we squeak into the #2 seed.  KC is only other team that would be able to hit 12 wins.  And they still play denver, chicago and chargers.  

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You are all forgetting the rule.  One game at a time.  Everyone is assuming we'll beat the Steelers but come on.  How many times has Pittsburgh been the undoing of the Bills?  The worst time of course was 2004 when the Bledsoe Bills just had to beat the Steelers backups in a home game for the Bills to break the drought and get into the playoffs.  And the Bills lost, 29-24. 

 

If something like that happens next weekend, (1) I'll be very surprised that this year's team let down like that, and (2) it will be a very bitter pill.  Pittsburgh will have the edge on us for the playoffs, and we might have to beat both the Pats and Jets to get in.

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19 minutes ago, Utah John said:

You are all forgetting the rule.  One game at a time.  Everyone is assuming we'll beat the Steelers but come on.  How many times has Pittsburgh been the undoing of the Bills?  The worst time of course was 2004 when the Bledsoe Bills just had to beat the Steelers backups in a home game for the Bills to break the drought and get into the playoffs.  And the Bills lost, 29-24. 

 

If something like that happens next weekend, (1) I'll be very surprised that this year's team let down like that, and (2) it will be a very bitter pill.  Pittsburgh will have the edge on us for the playoffs, and we might have to beat both the Pats and Jets to get in.

 

Nobody is assuming anything.  We're discussing scenarios to win the division, that's all.

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We are not winning the division this year, sadly. But the most important thing I am taking away from the Patriots current struggles - and particularly Tom Brady's struggles (and they are real.... the protection is not great but Brady is missing open guys and not throwing on time) is that the division IS very much in play in 2020. And I think that is good news. It needs to be, because the AFC East's schedule is much tougher next year - we are matched with the NFC and AFC West. I'd be pretty surprised if that leads to a wildcard from the AFCE in 2020, so if we want to make the playoffs next year we will likely need to win the division.

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