The Extra Point - Week 9: Are the Bills 6-2 or 2-6?

[Logic]

22 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I am curious as to how McBeane looks at the 2020 season. Let's say modestly that the Bills win 10 games and lose in the wildcard round. How do they view the 2020 season? Do they view it as an "All-In" type season where they have Josh on his rookie deal and a ton of cap space to improve a roster win a 10 win talent base? Or do they continue the more sustained approach where they sign maybe one big free agent (like Mitch) and maybe one or two other more modest starting caliber players (like Brown and Cole) while using their massive cap space to take care of their own players in need of extensions? 

 

I think they go with a more prudent approach as opposed to signing 2-3 big free agents and maybe trading for a veteran starter to just go for a run. I could see McBeane going after a big time edge rusher and another starting caliber player on offense or defense but mainly spending their pile of cap space on extensions for their own players. While addressing WR and other needs via the draft. 

 

I hope they don't go too conservative. They need to add at least 2 high end starting pieces to this talent base along with a strong draft to vault this team into contention. I see no reason why they can't "take care of their own" and add a big time pass rusher and another piece somewhere else and then fill the remaining needs via the draft. 

Great question.

I see merit to both approaches. Building this thing the right way, slow and steady, makes some sense to me. It's how you ensure long-term stability and intelligent cap usage. On the other hand, using the rookie QB contract window to spend big money elsewhere and try to make a run has proven successful time and time again in recent seasons for many different teams. It can be argued that this version of the Bills will NEVER have more cap and roster flexibility than that which is afforded by a QB on his rookie contract. Not only that, but some of their key roster pieces (Hyde, Poyer, Morse, Brown, Beasley) are in their prime NOW, and continuing to build for the future instead of the present won't always make sense.

It will be fascinating to see which course the Bills front office follows this offseason. 

EDIT: It occurs to me that I'm not sure how much big swinging the Bills NEED to do this offseason. They look to me to be a good edge rusher, a good WR, and a good RT away from being pretty damned good anyway. I'd say the onus needs to be on QUALITY over QUANTITY this offseason. They may only need some edge help, a WR, and a RT, but they need great players at those positions more than they need quantity at those positions. If they're going to take some big swings this offseason, I say let it be for for a small handful of high quality players vs a large handful of decent players.

Edited November 4, 2019 by Logic

[Mark Long Beach]

Not to mention having a cost controlled QB under rookie contract for just two more years.  2020 & 21.  So if you subscribe to the belief that you spend big on non QB free agents while your QB is cheap, it will be this coming year.

 

It'll be interesting to see if Beane & co subscribe to this.

[machine gun kelly]

It was a good write up, a little long, but I understand as you had a lot to say so thank you.  I flew up for the game from Tampa, and had a great time at the game.  I don’t see us winning a playoff game unless we improve in all three phases, but I’m not going to moan about 6-2.  As far as strength of schedule, they play who they are told to play.

 

I was disappointed about the Philly game, but we are building a team, and it takes time to have an O Line to gel.  I forgot how cold 38 degrees and 20 mph winds feels as I’ve probably been too used to FL weather.  We still have a chance to keep building confidence, and stack some wins up this year.

 

I like Sal comments on his show this morning, and why not enjoy the wins, the record and hopefully this coaching staff keeps improving each unit.

[Bleedbuffaloblue]

Great, great post! Thank you for putting it all down so succinctly and accurately IMO. Please continue this for the remainder of the season which hopefully will extend well into 2020. I look forward to reading more of your thoughts. 

So much of what you said here is exactly the way I feel, especially the Extra Point, but I could never have written it all out like you did. Again, well done.

[billsfan89]

15 minutes ago, Logic said:

Great question.

I see merit to both approaches. Building this thing the right way, slow and steady, makes some sense to me. It's how you ensure long-term stability and intelligent cap usage. On the other hand, using the rookie QB contract window to spend big money elsewhere and try to make a run has proven successful time and time again in recent seasons for many different teams. It can be argued that this version of the Bills will NEVER have more cap and roster flexibility than that which is afforded by a QB on his rookie contract. Not only that, but some of their key roster pieces (Hyde, Poyer, Morse, Brown, Beasley) are in their prime NOW, and continuing to build for the future instead of the present won't always make sense.

It will be fascinating to see which course the Bills front office follows this offseason. 

EDIT: It occurs to me that I'm not sure how much big swinging the Bills NEED to do this offseason. They look to me to be a good edge rusher, a good WR, and a good RT away from being pretty damned good anyway. I'd say the onus needs to be on QUALITY over QUANTITY this offseason. They may only need some edge help, a WR, and a RT, but they need great players at those positions more than they need quantity at those positions. If they're going to take some big swings this offseason, I say let it be for for a small handful of high quality players vs a large handful of decent players.

 

The big pieces home run pieces needed in my mind are a Dynamic Edge Rusher and a WR1. Some other moderate needs could end up costing significant money are a run stuffing DT, TE, OLB, and RT. While depth and specialists are needed at RB (you need a between the tackles player to replace Gore), DE (If you let Shaq walk and cut Murphy you need a rotational pass rushing DE) Safety (you need some depth behind an aging Poyer and Hyde) OLB (you are thin there) guard, and you probably need a new punter. 

 

Now that's only two big swings but that's in addition to the other depth and mid-level roster building needs. I think they have to split the difference they need to fill one of their two big needs via free agency and find another starting piece along with addressing some of their depth needs. In a stacked free agent pass rushing class I see no reason why you couldn't bring in a top edge rusher and find a run stuffing DT for a moderate price. You should also be able to find a good punter and fill some of your depth and specialist needs while taking care of your own players who need extension. I think you can then draft a WR early to fill out your other big need and draft other needs for depth and specialists in the other rounds. 

 

But if somehow a top flight WR hit the market would the team go hard after them AND a top edge rusher along with maybe a DT? Having two 15-20 million aav contracts added to the roster limits your flexibility but it gives you a legit window to contend. 

[r00tabaga]

2 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

Folks who focus solely on our record, at this point in the season, are heading for disappointment.

 

It's a misleading indicator of quality in this season.

 

 

You would be fun at a funeral. 

[LeGOATski]

Good write up.

 

Yeah, I think Bills fans are taking a long look in the mirror during this winning record. We're seeing the image of a depressed, miserable, ungrateful person. 

[Logic]

1 hour ago, LeGOATski said:

Good write up.

 

Yeah, I think Bills fans are taking a long look in the mirror during this winning record. We're seeing the image of a depressed, miserable, ungrateful person. 

Well said!

[PlayoffsPlease]

4 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

Folks who focus solely on our record, at this point in the season, are heading for disappointment.

 

It's a misleading indicator of quality in this season.

 

 

The team could realistically get to 11-5 without every beating a team with a winning record on the day they played.  Most would be happy with 11-5.  The AFC is pretty bad this year.  Any team in the playoffs could win any game.  Its possible the Bills could stumble and bumble all the way to the Super Bowl.  That would make most happy.   

[wppete]

6 - 2

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Agree with OP. 
 

I, for one, am enjoying the winning every week! 

[Punching Bag]

5 hours ago, Logic said:

Think of all the Dick Jaurons, Mike Mularkeys, Chan Gaileys, Jon DiGiorgios, Kelly Holcombs, Shaud Williamses, and Ko Simpsons that have rolled through Buffalo in those years. 

 

Very good post.

 

I think there is one additional piece needed especially for a team whose owners have no issue with spending money - coaching assistants/consultants.  Chan Gailey was a poor head coach but he was a very good OC who was able to scheme to get most out of players and that is what is needed here.  The coaching staff is working very hard but they someone to come in and work with them and kick some ideas around.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

5 hours ago, Logic said:

....After all, it could be ANOTHER 26 years before we see 6-2 again!

Now who’s being negative?  ?

*
Excellent write up.  Thank you.

[Orlando Buffalo]

8 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

Agree on the negativity.  Almost had my soon to be brother in law taking swings at me because I threw some facts at his narrative that Josh Allen is the worst QB and shouldn't be in the NFL.  Allen is average right now, which based on last year, pre draft expectations, and what he needed to work on, is great.

The people that are bashing Allen clearly think QBs show up and immediately play like Manning and Rodgers. He is average already and has been better the last 4 games then the first 4 .