The D isn't built to handle what hit them today

[BillsVet]

14 minutes ago, HalftimeAdjustment said:

The Bills D is more oriented to stopping the pass rather than power running. That is good, because the NFL is a passing league overall. But what is not good, is that the offense does not score enough to force opposing teams to go pass heavy.

 

The D was oriented to stopping the pass last year and was ranked highly.  The run defense was middle of the road.  

 

What's changed defensively?

 

[Happy]

5 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

The D was oriented to stopping the pass last year and was ranked highly.  The run defense was middle of the road.  

 

What's changed defensively?

 

 

The last two games and getting gashed by the run is reminiscent of last year.  Same defensive scheme, same MLB with a little more experience and a rookie DT who is a bit undersized.  IMO, the DTs should be more traditional one tech guys who can stop the run since that is not the LB's primary role.

[Dablitzkrieg]

That's what she said?

[HalftimeAdjustment]

37 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

The D was oriented to stopping the pass last year and was ranked highly.  The run defense was middle of the road.  

 

What's changed defensively?

 

 

Kyle Williams retired, and Harrison Phillips ended up getting injured. That can't help things.

[Big Blitz]

I wasn't implying the personnel and scheme should be overhauled.  Absolutely not.  

 

I do think we need to be better up front either adding a piece, moving Tremaine (you do that in the off season), or getting better on the edges.  Either another OLB or DE.  How who and when idk. 

Edited October 29, 2019 by Big Blitz

[LSHMEAB]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

While I certainly wouldn't mind getting a premier edge rusher, it's not an absolute necessity. 

 

Carolina was 2nd in the league in sacks in 2016, McDermott's last year there. Who was their big sack artist? Mario Addison led them with 9.5, and the next guy got 6.

 

In 2015 they were 6th in the league in sacks. Kawann Short had 11 and Addison was next with 6.

 

In 2013 they led the league with 60. They had Greg Hardy in his one truly great year with 15. And Charles Johnson did very well across from him with 11.0. Is Charles Johnson an "elite edge rusher." The year after that they had 40.

 

Again, I wouldn't mind a bit if we get a guy like that. But it looks a bit as if McDermott defenses manufacture sacks from scheme and lots of guys getting a few.

 

And while drive-killing sacks are nice, any way you kill the drive is pretty much as good.

Okay. But where are the sacks NOW? The turnovers? Fine. A premier pass rusher is not a requirement. The problem here is that the sum of the pass rushing components are not good enough. The solution is clearly not to stand pat because it's not really not working in that department. If you want to add multiple guys as opposed to one premier player, cool. I don't think you can make a case that they're good enough as is.

Edited October 29, 2019 by LSHMEAB

[Thurman#1]

5 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

Okay. But where are the sacks NOW? The turnovers? Fine. A premier pass rusher is not a requirement. The problem here is that the sum of the pass rushing components are not good enough. The solution is clearly not to stand pat because it's not really not working in that department. If you want to add multiple guys as opposed to one premier player, cool. I don't think you can make a case that they're good enough as is.

 

 

They're playing extremely good defense without the sacks. 

 

And yeah, they sure weren't good yesterday but overall this D has been excellent. We're 8th in QB hits this year (NFL.com), and above average in sacks at 14th.

 

The solution could easily be to stand pat. Because the goal isn't to win this year. That may be the goal of many fans on here but McDermott and Beane have made very plain what their goal is ... to be consistently competitive. Not to win this year. To be consistently competitive. And a lot of deals that would help us win this year would hurt in the long run. They won't make those deals. Nor should any smart organization with their goals.

 

Now, if they find deals that would help this year but not hurt in the long run ... great. That's the kind of move that would make sense.

Edited October 29, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

7 hours ago, Turk71 said:

  His run stop % fell off a cliff his last 2 years in Carolina after being at a high level for two years, it has never recovered. Carolina had no interest in re-signing him.

   A lack of sacks has nothing to do with it, his job is to occupy blockers and stuff the run and unfortunately he is not that good at it.

 

 

Nonsense. Carolina didn't re-sign him because they were having cap problems and had other priorities. And after letting him go, coincidentally, their defensive yards allowed per carry went from 3.9 YPC (9th) with him in 2016 and 4.0 YPC (10th) with him in 2017 to 4.7 YPC (20th) without him. Weird, hunh? How with him there they stopped the run like crazy and when he left it was almost like they couldn't stop it at all.

 

And then the Bills go from 23rd in defensive YPC in 2017, their last year without Star ...  to 9th in the league in Star's first year with them.

 

Wacky how the coincidences pile up around Star, hunh? How the teams where he's been there (sucking, according to you) have stopped the run better? Nutty.

 

And run stop percentage is a stat with a ton of variables beyond how well you play. Does a nose tackle occupy a double-team and stand them up and cause the RB to cut to a different hole? Whoops, he failed on the play according to run stop percentage. Lotulelei's role is to allow other guys to raise their run stop percentages.

 

If he had fallen off a cliff in Carolina his last two years and wasn't getting the job that they wanted done ... don't you think that his defensive coordinator might have maybe noticed? And not paid him $10 mill a year to come with him? This argument is simply ridiculous.

 

There's an argument that can be made that he has fallen off between last year and this year. But as of last year he was doing an excellent job eating blocks and stuffing the run that way.

Edited October 29, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Turk71]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Nonsense. Carolina didn't re-sign him because they were having cap problems and had other priorities. And after letting him go, coincidentally, their defensive yards allowed per carry went from 3.9 YPC (9th) with him in 2016 and 4.0 YPC (10th) with him in 2017 to 4.7 YPC (20th) without him. Weird, hunh? How with him there they stopped the run like crazy and when he left it was almost like they couldn't stop it at all.

 

And then the Bills go from 23rd in defensive YPC in 2017, their last year without Star ...  to 9th in the league in Star's first year with them.

 

Wacky how the coincidences pile up around Star, hunh? How the teams where he's been there (sucking, according to you) have stopped the run better? Nutty.

 

And run stop percentage is a stat with a ton of variables beyond how well you play. Does a nose tackle occupy a double-team and stand them up and cause the RB to cut to a different hole? Whoops, he failed on the play according to run stop percentage. Lotulelei's role is to allow other guys to raise their run stop percentages.

 

If he had fallen off a cliff in Carolina his last two years and wasn't getting the job that they wanted done ... don't you think that his defensive coordinator might have maybe noticed? And not paid him $10 mill a year to come with him? This argument is simply ridiculous.

 

There's an argument that can be made that he has fallen off between last year and this year. But as of last year he was doing an excellent job eating blocks and stuffing the run that way.

  I read a post of yours in another thread defending PFF. You pointed out that the NFL teams pay for and value their analysis and insight. PFF doesn't agree with your assessment and has rated him a poor performer for years, including his last 2 in Carolina.

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2018/03/pro_football_focus_names_star_lotuleleis_buffalo_bills_deal_among_most_overrated.html

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2018/02/22/nfl-free-agency-buffalo-bills-star-lotulelei-panthers-draft/amp/

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2019/02/19/pro-football-focus-buffalo-bills-star-lotulelei-sheldon-richardson/amp/

  

[GG]

3 minutes ago, Turk71 said:

  I read a post of yours in another thread defending PFF. You pointed out that the NFL teams pay for and value their analysis and insight. PFF doesn't agree with your assessment and has rated him a poor performer for years, including his last 2 in Carolina.

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2018/03/pro_football_focus_names_star_lotuleleis_buffalo_bills_deal_among_most_overrated.html

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2018/02/22/nfl-free-agency-buffalo-bills-star-lotulelei-panthers-draft/amp/

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2019/02/19/pro-football-focus-buffalo-bills-star-lotulelei-sheldon-richardson/amp/

  

 

Why bother bringing play highlights and outside rankings when the opinions are dug in.  Star is the star, dammit.

[Guest]

22 hours ago, Sherlock Holmes said:

Forgot to add in Ryan Kerrigan...

I'd run a 3-4 D with those guys.

TJ Watt and Nick Bosa as OLBs with Kerrigan, Joey, JJ versatile enough to move into those spots as well to confuse.

Kuechly and Vander Esch are the MLBs

Joey and Kerrigan at DE with JJ in the middle.

 

Would be the best D ever, possibly 0 points all season if all healthy.

What's your deal with white guys???

[billsfan_34]

On 10/27/2019 at 10:07 PM, BUFFALOTONE said:

Oh look Philly just ran another screen for a 1st down... took 3 qtrs to stop it. Well done Frazier 

Don’t forget the stretch plays that chipped our D line into irrelevance 

[Sherlock Holmes]

12 minutes ago, marky said:

What's your deal with white guys???

Am I not allowed to like white players or something? Are you racist?

[Green Lightning]

21 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

His "massive" regression? Puh-leeze. If he'd massively regressed, McDermott, I'm guessing, might possibly have noticed and, you know, not brought him to Buffalo.

 

What, pray tell, was his "massive regression"? Going from averaging 2.5 sacks his first four years to 1.5 sacks that final year? Woooooooooooow!!!!! Massive!!!

 

He's never been a big numbers guy. His sacks have mostly been of the I'll keep active and occasionally the edge guys will cause a QB to run into me type. 

 

He's a space eater. It's what he's always done and it's what they hired him to do here. And he did it just fine last year, but there are questions this year.

 

He's a waste of space. Gets beat consistently 1:1 and gets pushed around. He has zero pursuit laterally and once pushed aside the RB is gone and the OL is on our LBs. Standing up on the snap, getting pushed around and watching the play behind you is not a space eater.

[Rocket94]

22 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Well McDermott continues to force Edmunds at MLB when it's starting to become obvious it isn't his position... perhaps the guys a little stubborn and confident in his abilities as a coach.... Star is essentially useless. The defensive line overall is pretty damn mediocre with a good chunk of change invested in it. 

Right on. Edmunds needs to go outside. We need a disruptive and stout MLB, a new DT and DE. Jordan Philips,and Ed Oliver are excellent players and they of course remain.

 

[Green Lightning]

28 minutes ago, Rocket94 said:

Right on. Edmunds needs to go outside. We need a disruptive and stout MLB, a new DT and DE. Jordan Philips,and Ed Oliver are excellent players and they of course remain.

 

I'm beginning to feel this way myself. The guy is a physical freak as a coverage machine, but he's meh as a run-stopper. Can't seem to get off blocks. Why not play him where his strength is?

[Rocket94]

16 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:

I'm beginning to feel this way myself. The guy is a physical freak as a coverage machine, but he's meh as a run-stopper. Can't seem to get off blocks. Why not play him where his strength is?

Months ago I didn't see it. The more that I watch Edmunds in the middle, it is painful to watch him, knowing his true strength is on the outside. It is almost like McDermott is making it work...square peg in a round hole.

[noacls]

15 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

They're playing extremely good defense without the sacks. 

 

And yeah, they sure weren't good yesterday but overall this D has been excellent. We're 8th in QB hits this year (NFL.com), and above average in sacks at 14th.

 

The solution could easily be to stand pat. Because the goal isn't to win this year. That may be the goal of many fans on here but McDermott and Beane have made very plain what their goal is ... to be consistently competitive. Not to win this year. To be consistently competitive. And a lot of deals that would help us win this year would hurt in the long run. They won't make those deals. Nor should any smart organization with their goals.

 

Now, if they find deals that would help this year but not hurt in the long run ... great. That's the kind of move that would make sense.

The "extremely good defense" is 28 in redzone defense. Their rankings are inflated because the horrible teams they played.

[Thurman#1]

5 hours ago, noacls said:

The "extremely good defense" is 28 in redzone defense. Their rankings are inflated because the horrible teams they played.

 

 

Red zone defense is one small part of defense. We may be 28th at it but we're also 3rd in yards per drive and 3rd in points per drive. If you keep teams out of the red zone at a high rate, you can have a poor red zone D and still be an excellent defense.

 

The bottom line is does the D stifle the opponent's offense, stop them getting yards, give our offense good field position and stop points from being scored.

 

And the answer is yes. Our defense has played terrific this year. Not last week, certainly, but they've been elite over the course of the year. They have to keep it up, obviously.

Edited October 30, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, Green Lightning said:

He's a waste of space. Gets beat consistently 1:1 and gets pushed around. He has zero pursuit laterally and once pushed aside the RB is gone and the OL is on our LBs. Standing up on the snap, getting pushed around and watching the play behind you is not a space eater.

 

 

That's really not true. It's full of wild exaggeration, as Joe B's column today makes clear.

 

 

17 hours ago, GG said:

 

Why bother bringing play highlights and outside rankings when the opinions are dug in.  Star is the star, dammit.

 

 

You're right that he shouldn't bother, but not because people are dug in. Because a space eater can be doing a terrific job and still have a low run stop percentage. If he's raising the run stop percentage of the guys around him, he's doing his job.

 

Run stop percentage has obvious problems to it. If teams don't think they can move you and so they run away from you, your run stop percentage will drop. The stat itself has major flaws. Some defenses are built to funnel backs to certain guys. The guys who make up the funnel will have low run stop percentages even when they're doing what the coaches want them to do.