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Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

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1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

Kyler Murray at 13 seems absurd to me.

 

I've always felt these guy's QB rankings are pretty arbitrary, although this list at the end of season seems more connected to reality than most of their work.  They have heavy "I heard of him!" elements.  Kyler Murray was OROY, so they figgur he must at least be in the top-15.  There's actually a bunch I quibble with -Tannehill had a good year, but I don't think he's the 6th best QB in the league - but again, he was "Comeback Player of the Year" so he's gotta be up there, right?

 

Anyway it's nice to see that they've moved Josh out of the basement - I think he's now getting the "10 wins and team went to the playoffs! I've heard of him!" treatment.

 



 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:


No issues with where Allen is listed—Murray is my only beef.

 

He had decent numbers. Remember though he’s throwing to a HOFer and Christian Kirk. Plus their run game ranked 3rd in the NFL in YPC. 

the bolded really surprised me.... I shoulda done a bit more homework there. definitely helps his cause.

56 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I've always felt these guy's QB rankings are pretty arbitrary, although this list at the end of season seems more connected to reality than most of their work.  They have heavy "I heard of him!" elements.  Kyler Murray was OROY, so they figgur he must at least be in the top-15.  There's actually a bunch I quibble with -Tannehill had a good year, but I don't think he's the 6th best QB in the league - but again, he was "Comeback Player of the Year" so he's gotta be up there, right?

 

Anyway it's nice to see that they've moved Josh out of the basement - I think he's now getting the "10 wins and team went to the playoffs! I've heard of him!" treatment.

actually back in week 16 or 17 of the regular season this panel had moved allen all the way up to 14 or 15.... its NFL.com. so its a panel that consists of a bit more than "the I've heard of him" type of writers. they've honestly been pretty fair all year. they havnt been heavy on just rating systems or just wins. they really seem to take in the big picture. with allen that's still a below average pass game but a run threat and clutch gene that tosses him in the mix of anywhere from between 14-20.

Edited by Stank_Nasty
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4 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

the bolded really surprised me.... I shoulda done a bit more homework there. definitely helps his cause.


Yeah, Edmunds and Drake were outstanding for them.

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4 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

actually back in week 16 or 17 of the regular season this panel had moved allen all the way up to 14 or 15.... its NFL.com, man. so its a panel that consists of a bit more than "the I've heard of him" type of writers. they've honestly been pretty fair all year. they havnt been heavy on just rating systems or just wins. they really seem to take in the big picture. with allen that's still a below average pass game but a run threat and clutch gene that tosses him in the mix of anywhere from between 14-20.

 

Well, we'll have to disagree.  Just because it's NFL.com does not, IMO, mean the panel is football knowledgeable guys who watch all 32 games every week.  Someone involved in national football coverage (sorry don't remember who) explained that outside of the primetime and marquee games, they really don't watch too much.

 

They moved Allen up in Week 16 because he'd just had a Sunday Nite win against the Steelers and previous to that a nationally televised win on Thanksgiving, so they'd actually watched him play.  They moved him back down because in the playoffs, they watched him play weirdly and lose (as opposed to hardly playing, like Tannehill).

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Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well, we'll have to disagree.  Just because it's NFL.com does not, IMO, mean the panel is football knowledgeable guys who watch all 32 games every week.  Someone involved in national football coverage (sorry don't remember who) explained that outside of the primetime and marquee games, they really don't watch too much.

 

They moved Allen up in Week 16 because he'd just had a Sunday Nite win against the Steelers and previous to that a nationally televised win on Thanksgiving, so they'd actually watched him play.  They moved him back down because in the playoffs, they watched him play weirdly and lose (as opposed to hardly playing, like Tannehill).

he was in the teens most of the year. I looked at those rankings weekly. when allen started protecting the football and the team kept winning he magically started to climb the list. it wasn't just a couple of primetime games. but this really isn't worth the debate. so i'll end it with, IMO its about as fair a list as I've seen on a weekly basis. but like you said, we can agree to disagree.

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1 minute ago, Stank_Nasty said:

he was in the teens most of the year. I looked at those rankings weekly. when allen started protecting the football and the team kept winning he magically started to climb the list. it wasn't just a couple of primetime games. but this really isn't worth the debate. so i'll end it with, IMO its about as fair a list as I've seen on a weekly basis. but like you said, we can agree to disagree.

 

Ha!  Well, you got me there....it can be both, "about as fair a list I've seen on a weekly basis" AND kind of arbitrary and "I've heard of him" based 😋.  Peace out.

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2 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Tannehill at 7th, I'll wait to see him repeat this year. I'm dubious.

they state right in the write up its not a projection into the future. just how they performed in 2019....i'd wager a large amount he comes wayyyy back down to earth this season wherever he plays. But the fact remains he was really good down the stretch for them. 

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3 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

they state right in the write up its not a projection into the future. just how they performed in 2019....i'd wager a large amount he comes wayyyy back down to earth this season wherever he plays. But the fact remains he was really good down the stretch for them. 

It's not how I'd do it, to each their own.

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3 hours ago, Gugny said:

Anyone catch Golic/Wingo yesterday morning?  They did a segment on who could/would be a breakout QB next season.  They brought up every single young QB, including Lock and Jones, and Josh's name never even came up.

 

I was perplexed.

You shouldn't be. It's ESPN programming. 

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7 minutes ago, H2o said:

You shouldn't be. It's ESPN programming. 

 

Allen's name came up frequently during the season.  Golic Sr., is the only one close to "sold," on him.  I thought, at the very least, he'd have brought him up.

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1 hour ago, Gugny said:

 

Allen's name came up frequently during the season.  Golic Sr., is the only one close to "sold," on him.  I thought, at the very least, he'd have brought him up.

Did they mention any of the other QB's going into their 3rd year like Darnold, Mayfield, or Rosen? 

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9 minutes ago, H2o said:

Did they mention any of the other QB's going into their 3rd year like Darnold, Mayfield, or Rosen? 

 

All three.

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3 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

All three.

 

It's Buffalo vs. Everybody, Baby.  Get yer T-shirts ready.

 

image.thumb.png.f939aeb247ff419b3fd8eac23a24578a.png

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Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It's Buffalo vs. Everybody, Baby.  Get yer T-shirts ready.

 

 

 

Even Garrappoollloo was mentioned.  They even brought up Mahomes just to collectively agree that he was out of the running since 2019 was his breakout year.

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8 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

All three.

 

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It's Buffalo vs. Everybody, Baby.  Get yer T-shirts ready.

 

image.thumb.png.f939aeb247ff419b3fd8eac23a24578a.png

 

3 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

Even Garrappoollloo was mentioned.  They even brought up Mahomes just to collectively agree that he was out of the running since 2019 was his breakout year.

Good then. I hope this ticks Allen off and adds to the chip he carries on his shoulder. 

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Short and intermediate accuracy

As soon as the Bills drafted Allen, they went to work with attempting to fine-tune his footwork and mechanics. They likely believed that some of Allen’s accuracy concerns from Wyoming had to do with inconsistent footwork. They aimed to correct it by having him throw from an uneven base on short throws to the flat, either on swing passes or designed wide receiver screens. They also looked to change how Allen opened up his hip and stepped to the left when throwing the ball to the left sideline. Allen’s legs were working against him on those throws. Correcting that would decrease the likelihood of the throw losing some velocity and improve the ball placement.

 

A video clip emerged from training camp in 2018 showing Allen missing badly on one short throw, and it became the source of mockery. He was a work in progress in that area, and his chart from his rookie season signaled that.

passer-rating-vs-league-avg_ALL529264_20

After careful work on these areas in 2018 and through a full offseason in 2019, Allen’s ball placement and overall accuracy improved. It certainly helped that the Bills added John Brown, Cole Beasley and Dawson Knox to the mix. The results showed in a significant way, with a quarterback rating improvement of at least 10 points in nine out of the 12 zones. The biggest growth area? The left sideline from 11 to 20 yards, which rose from 38.1 to 114.5 and was the exact area where the Bills looked for him to improve with his footwork.

passer-rating-vs-league-avg_ALL529264_20

The key is there is room for more growth, which should be an encouraging sign for the Bills.

 

...

What are fair expectations in Year 3?

...The processing is key to Allen’s consistency and the ability to make a big jump in 2020. The Bills will need to make an essential decision on Allen soon — whether to give him top-flight money as a starting quarterback in the NFL or to solve the position by other means. A jump in production, a continuation of improvements from 2019 and growth in some weaker areas should be the standard for Allen this coming season.

 

Until then, it’s unclear why many are already writing off the 23-year-old. One of his best attributes is the selfless willingness to adapt. If there is an evident deficiency in Allen’s game, he works to remove it and turn the improvement into a habit. Allen has reinvented himself from one week to the next multiple times already throughout his young career. The legitimate strides he’s made with his time to a decision, short-to-intermediate accuracy, cutting down on turnover-worthy plays and not leaving the pocket prematurely should all breed optimism that he can improve in other critical areas. Because of that amount of growth in such a short time, it’s challenging to define Allen’s ceiling in the NFL. And because of such a rapid improvement, it would be foolish to believe he’s a finished product before his third season.

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8 hours ago, thebandit27 said:


No issues with where Allen is listed—Murray is my only beef.

 

He had decent numbers. Remember though he’s throwing to a HOFer and Christian Kirk. Plus their run game ranked 3rd in the NFL in YPC. 

Fitz is still a fine player, but summing him up as putting out HoF level play at this point in his career is a little much.

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10 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Fitz is still a fine player, but summing him up as putting out HoF level play at this point in his career is a little much.

 

Agreed, and I like Fitz. He's at the "nothing great is expected of me; anything good I do will be praise-worthy" stage of the Fitzpatrick Cycle.

He had a better year from a QB-quality standpoint in 2015 with the Jets.  He did a praiseworthy  job with a bad cast this year in Miami, but HoF?

Pfft.

22 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Short and intermediate accuracy

As soon as the Bills drafted Allen, they went to work with attempting to fine-tune his footwork and mechanics. They likely believed that some of Allen’s accuracy concerns from Wyoming had to do with inconsistent footwork. They aimed to correct it by having him throw from an uneven base on short throws to the flat, either on swing passes or designed wide receiver screens. They also looked to change how Allen opened up his hip and stepped to the left when throwing the ball to the left sideline. Allen’s legs were working against him on those throws. Correcting that would decrease the likelihood of the throw losing some velocity and improve the ball placement.

 

A video clip emerged from training camp in 2018 showing Allen missing badly on one short throw, and it became the source of mockery. He was a work in progress in that area, and his chart from his rookie season signaled that.

 

Just a note, Transplant, that this was put up as its own thread a couple hours ago.

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38 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Just a note, Transplant, that this was put up as its own thread a couple hours ago.

 

My bad. 

 

I actually looked through the first couple pages at titles and didn't click on the threads.  I see you posted it... guess I just saw the fact that it was a review of his first 2 years and didn't make the obvious connection, even though I should have.

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5 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

they state right in the write up its not a projection into the future. just how they performed in 2019....i'd wager a large amount he comes wayyyy back down to earth this season wherever he plays. But the fact remains he was really good down the stretch for them. 

 

5 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

It's not how I'd do it, to each their own.

 

I actually think it's exactly the right way to go about it.  It'd be significantly more subjective if you just ranked QBs "overall."  I mean, I know most people wouldn't look at QBs in the NFL today and say "Brady is the 14th best QB in the NFL" or "Rivers is the 22nd best" based on what they've done over their careers, but just because Brady is the GOAT doesn't mean you automatically put him at #1 every year.  Or Rivers in the top 10 every year.

 

And I actually think Brady at 14 might be a bit high.

 

And yes, I realize some would retort that you don't put Brady at #1 because of how much his age is showing.  But then the counter would be was it age or was it losing Gronk and not having any true #1 WRs he had chemistry with?  

 

And I personally do think it's age, but you see how subjective this can get if you try to rank QBs based on talent and/or potential rather than a year by year production.

 

I think this is the right approach on the part of NFL.com... and Allen as the 18th best (an above average, but not great or even really good) QB in a season where over 50 QBs took a relatively significant amount of snaps sounds about right..

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20 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

My bad. 

 

I actually looked through the first couple pages at titles and didn't click on the threads.  I see you posted it... guess I just saw the fact that it was a review of his first 2 years and didn't make the obvious connection, even though I should have.

 

Eh, I probably titled it poorly.  If you have better ideas, hit me in PM

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