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Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said:

Image result for i dont care memes

 

Give me Josh's adjusted after throwaways.  I bet it goes up 5-10 points.

 

Not a bad game to play here.

 

Let's try adjusted completion percentage for Allen taking away both drops (22 was the number before the Jets game) and Throwaways (25)

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=232&type=Receiving

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing_advanced.htm?sr&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#ks_passing_detailed_accuracy

 

Adjusted Completion percentage = 69%

 

Actually... just look at this reference for advanced passing stats with regard to accuracy... pretty interesting:

 

Highest drop percentage by 1 % (which is a lot)

 

3 spikes (tied for 4th most)

 

10 batted passes (13th most)

 

 

Okay. Adding the batted passes and spikes, Allen's accuracy percentage (and we still haven't looked at passes that weren't dropped but may have been catchable but were well defended or the WR wasn't looking or whatever...):

 

Adjusted Completion percentage = 71.8%

Edited by transplantbillsfan

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2 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

It may jibe with what we’ve seen. Allen doesn’t speak jive 

 

 

Jus' hang loose, blood. She gonna catch ya up on da rebound on da med side.

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If he doesn't go 10/20 90 yds 0 td 1 int, I want to see him back next year!

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Not a bad game to play here.

 

Let's try adjusted completion percentage for Allen taking away both drops (22 was the number before the Jets game) and Throwaways (25)

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=232&type=Receiving

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing_advanced.htm?sr&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#ks_passing_detailed_accuracy

 

Adjusted Completion percentage = 69%

 

Actually... just look at this reference for advanced passing stats with regard to accuracy... pretty interesting:

 

Highest drop percentage by 1 % (which is a lot)

 

3 spikes (tied for 4th most)

 

10 batted passes (13th most)

 

 

Okay. Adding the batted passes and spikes, Allen's accuracy percentage (and we still haven't looked at passes that weren't dropped but may have been catchable but were well defended or the WR wasn't looking or whatever...):

 

Adjusted Completion percentage = 71.8%

What does that number tell us in a vacuum without a comparison vs the rest of the league?

 

PFR has a nifty stat called “on target passing.” It excludes spikes and throwaways. It’s your percentage of throws on target. Josh ranks 21st in the NFL.

Edited by BringBackOrton
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5 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

What does that number tell us in a vacuum without a comparison vs the rest of the league?

 

PFR has a nifty stat called “on target passing.” It excludes spikes and throwaways. It’s your percentage of throws on target. Josh ranks 21st in the NFL.

 

Yep.

 

That's not the 32nd he currently ranks in completion percentage.

 

Pretty massive jump.

 

And I would say he falls very much within the standard deviation of accuracy for good NFL QBs in that range. Remember, accuracy and completion percentage in particular is not the Olympics; you don't have to be #1, you just have to be in a certain range overall. 

 

Allen had a higher on target percentage than Brady, Wentz, Goff, Stafford and Mayfield, among others, was 0.2% lower than Kyler Murray and 1.5% lower than Aaron Rodgers. The difference of 10 spots between him at 21 and Russell Wilson at 11 is a mere 3%, which is interesting considering Wilson's completion percentage was 7.3% higher than him.

 

 

So if you're one of those people who believe where you're ranked in the NFL in terms of accuracy is what's most important, then obviously Allen being 21st out of 32 means he's not very good--though clearly he's a lot better than that 32nd in completion percentage would indicate.

 

But like I said, accuracy is not the Olympics.

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3 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Yep.

 

That's not the 32nd he currently ranks in completion percentage.

 

Pretty massive jump.

 

And I would say he falls very much within the standard deviation of accuracy for good NFL QBs in that range. Remember, accuracy and completion percentage in particular is not the Olympics; you don't have to be #1, you just have to be in a certain range overall. 

 

Allen had a higher on target percentage than Brady, Wentz, Goff, Stafford and Mayfield, among others, was 0.2% lower than Kyler Murray and 1.5% lower than Aaron Rodgers. The difference of 10 spots between him at 21 and Russell Wilson at 11 is a mere 3%, which is interesting considering Wilson's completion percentage was 7.3% higher than him.

 

 

So if you're one of those people who believe where you're ranked in the NFL in terms of accuracy is what's most important, then obviously Allen being 21st out of 32 means he's not very good--though clearly he's a lot better than that 32nd in completion percentage would indicate.

 

But like I said, accuracy is not the Olympics.

I don’t believe it’s the most important but it is important.

 

I think that 21st in the NFL in on target passing means there’s room for improvement. Especially when Josh is top 5 in bad throw%.

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said:

Image result for i dont care memes

 

Give me Josh's adjusted after throwaways.  I bet it goes up 5-10 points.


on deep balls? Hard to tell what’s a throw away and what’s not he’s missed open guys by 10 yards at times this year. Cute gif though

Edited by JoPoy88

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6 hours ago, JoPoy88 said:


on deep balls? Hard to tell what’s a throw away and what’s not he’s missed open guys by 10 yards at times this year. Cute gif though

 

It's really not that difficult to figure out what's a throwaway vs what's a straight up miss if you're watching the plays.

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22 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

Not sure what this proves.  The YPA advantage for Newton (8.0 vs. 6.7) is pretty substantial.  To me, that and the INT % (2.0 to 2.5 in favor of Allen) are the most important stats.

 

 

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On 12/20/2019 at 12:25 PM, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Hard to argue with success. He doesn't blow leads.

  On 12/20/2019 at 12:02 PM, ScottLaw said:

He's a good HC for sure....but he gets way too conservative at times.... such as the cluster ***** last two minutes of playing for the tie against Browns. The conservative strategy employed last week in the 4th won't work against the better teams and better QBs in the playoffs. Hopefully the approach changes in a close game against a Watson or Mahomes. 

 

 

Well that didn't age to well.

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There are so many stats out there for QB play that it truly is information overload. Allen is a young QB who still needs a lot of work reading defenses and cleaning up some mechanical aspects of his game, but is certainly on the right track. The biggest issue with Allen from what I’ve noticed is that he doesn’t read the entire field well. He can read the safeties and has an idea where to go pre-snap, but that’s only step one in a QBs development. 

 

Coming from a Jets fans perspective I’d be much more confident in Allen morphing  into a franchise QB over Darnold at this point just based on the trajectory of their career thus far. Allen took an enormous leap year 1 to year 2whereas Darnolds year 2 was more of a regression. 

 

All in All both players have the talent to be franchise QBs, but time will tell if either can live up to their potential. 

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29 minutes ago, DCofNC said:
  On 12/20/2019 at 12:02 PM, ScottLaw said:

He's a good HC for sure....but he gets way too conservative at times.... such as the cluster ***** last two minutes of playing for the tie against Browns. The conservative strategy employed last week in the 4th won't work against the better teams and better QBs in the playoffs. Hopefully the approach changes in a close game against a Watson or Mahomes. 

 

 

Well that didn't age to well.

They went from ultra conservative to ultra aggressive at the end of the Houston game..... Playcalling stupidity on both levels.

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5 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

They went from ultra conservative to ultra aggressive at the end of the Houston game..... Playcalling stupidity on both levels.

Agreed.

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58 minutes ago, DCofNC said:
  On 12/20/2019 at 12:02 PM, ScottLaw said:

He's a good HC for sure....but he gets way too conservative at times.... such as the cluster ***** last two minutes of playing for the tie against Browns. The conservative strategy employed last week in the 4th won't work against the better teams and better QBs in the playoffs. Hopefully the approach changes in a close game against a Watson or Mahomes. 

 

 

Well that didn't age to well.

So they lose a 16-0 lead a month after this post and you go back and call me out. Feel better now? Is that what you do regularly go back and do this kind of thing? Wow, you can go back and point out other 99x i've been correct. JEEZ the internet.

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1 hour ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

So they lose a 16-0 lead a month after this post and you go back and call me out. Feel better now? Is that what you do regularly go back and do this kind of thing? Wow, you can go back and point out other 99x i've been correct. JEEZ the internet.

Easy big fella, just saying the point was made you can't always coach like you are afraid to lose and you happened to be the guy saying it was working.  The problem is when you face real teams, they can score.

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High School
2011 2012- 59%
2012-2013 - 50%
2013-2014 - 57%

Junior College

2015 - 49%

College
2016 - 56%
2017 - 56.3%

NFL
2018 - 52.8%
2019 - 58.8%
 

The next time Josh is over 60% will be the first time.

 

okay to be fair he DID throw 6 passes in his first season with Wyoming and completed 4 of them for a 66.7%.  😉😉😉😉

Edited by RalphWilson'sNewWar
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3 hours ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

High School
2011 2012- 59%
2012-2013 - 50%
2013-2014 - 57%

College
2016 - 56%
2017 - 56.3%

NFL
2018 - 52.8%
2019 - 58.8%
 

The next time Josh is over 60% will be the first time.

 

okay to be fair he DID throw 6 passes in his first season with Wyoming and completed 4 of them for a 66.7%.  😉😉😉😉

This is sad...fingers crossed that Daboll can create an offense that will help Josh become a more efficient passer...there is no reason that, in today’s game, that any QB should be under 60% completions imo...

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4 hours ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

High School
2011 2012- 59%
2012-2013 - 50%
2013-2014 - 57%

College
2016 - 56%
2017 - 56.3%

NFL
2018 - 52.8%
2019 - 58.8%
 

The next time Josh is over 60% will be the first time.

 

okay to be fair he DID throw 6 passes in his first season with Wyoming and completed 4 of them for a 66.7%.  😉😉😉😉

 

High school results mean zero, zip, nada when it comes to the NFL.  I can't believe anyone would post them in order to make a point. 

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2 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

High school results mean zero, zip, nada when it comes to the NFL.  I can't believe anyone would post them in order to make a point. 


there’s no point.

no agenda.

 

just stats.  I’ll leave it up to everyone to interpret what they mean or don’t.

 

i didn’t create these stats,  I didn’t make up these stats.

 

i simply posted these stats.  That is all.

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