Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[BringBackOrton]

1 hour ago, Augie said:

 

I’m talking mostly of Knox, who clearly looked to run a few times before he had possession. A couple of those were huge plays in a close game. Maybe you missed that, or maybe it doesn’t play into your narrative. 

 

 

There are a couple bad plays by everybody that could have been huge plays in close games. That’s the NFL man.

[oldmanfan]

If we assume that 60% is the magic, holy grail of completion percentage that Allen must hit, here’s some math:

 

Number of attempts:  461

Number of completions:  271

Number if additional completions needed for 60%:  4 (rounds off to 60%)

 

So this entire obsession with his completion percentage comes down to 4 plays over the season.  So 4 better passes, 4 less drops, 4 less throwaways.  However, this angst comes down to 4 plays, or 0.25 plays a game.

 

Just food for thought.

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

See this does nothing.  Watson was an absolute animal in college.  Matt Ryan carried a crappy BC team.  

 

Watson was an absolute animal in college.  I agree.  He was.  He was also surrounded by extreme NFL talent at all positions.

 

Matt Ryan joined a D1 school that won 8 or 9 games in each of its previous 3 seasons before he started along with 3 consecutive bowl games.

 

So you can say, by the same logic, that Allen carried the Wyoming Cowboys just as much considering the year before Allen got his season as a starter, the team won 2 games and had losing records the previous 3 seasons.

 

6 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

would an elite receiver help? I would like to think so.  But a smart betting man won’t ever put money on Allen becoming a passer like those 2 because he never has been.  That’s been my main issue with the Allen pick.  We are hoping he becomes a better player in the nfl than he was in the MWC.  And while I have serious doubts he can get to the Ryan and Watson level as a passer, he can still be a very effective player if we play to his strengths.  

 

Allen doesn't have to pass like Ryan because he plays a different style of QB.

 

I don't think Allen will ever be in the upper tier of the NFL as far as completion percentage.  He doesn't have to be.  And not being there doesn't mean he can't still become an Elite QB.

 

But these failures in logic some people are having is getting frustrating.  

 

We all want Allen to get better.  But some of us are wildly encouraged by the huge step we saw from year 1 to year 2 in the NFL and we think it bodes, really, really well for his future.

 

But the GM needs to help with that by giving him an Elite weapon or 2.

[transplantbillsfan]

9 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

This is a point I’ve been trying to make.  The need a catchable pass stat because every drop isn’t the same.  I don’t think it’s a stretch to say Drew Brees throws a more catchable ball than Josh Allen.

 

Yes, every drop is the same. It's a pass an NFL WR should have caught.

 

It's really that simple.

 

You guys are really trying to twist the narrative to somehow pin these drops on Allen and it's just ridiculous.

[transplantbillsfan]

8 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

The odd thing about this is that is two best deep passes (in terms of accuracy) later in the season were both to John Brown in the Denver and NE games. In the Denver game, the ball was right on the money, but the important context is that he was throwing directly into a ~30 mph wind. In the NE game, he got hit hard as he threw it. In almost every instance, such passes end up short. Neither did in this case. 

 

That Dawson Knox deep ball was a dime, too.

[LSHMEAB]

6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Where do the 30 mph winds come into it?

 

Many deep passes I've seen, including successful deep passes, involve the QB getting hit just after he threw it.  I'd like to understand the source of the info that "in almost every instance, such passes end up short"

What if there's merit to "the less he thinks, the better he is." 

 

If you're getting hit, you have no time to think. You just throw. If you're facing 30 MPH winds, you're not expected to make a great throw, so also, less thought/more throw.

 

As someone who generally relies purely on data and not "eyeball tests," it would be hypocritical to pretend like this is some kind of absolute. Nothing more than a hypothesis based on observation.

 

Edited January 23, 2020 by LSHMEAB

[reddogblitz]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Frankly this sounds like a bit of agenda, especially this last.  In case you don't listen to Daboll and etc press conference, there's a lot of need for the WR/QB being on the same page in his offense - the WR decides what route variation to run based upon how he reads the DB, and the QB has to read both the DB and the WR's body language.  Even so a certain number of throws will be in a different place than the WR expects and he has to adjust.   That's just being a pro WR.

 

Beasley and Brown are experienced NFL WR who have had several NFL QB throwing to them, and that last is just bonkers.

 

No agenda.  Just an observation. I read over and over Josh's comp % is low due to drops.  Ok.  Why does he have so many 2 years in a row with different pass catchers?  The theory I read over and over it was the receivers.  Maybe Josh contributes somehow?    Not saying it's Josh's fault, but maybe it's both?  The passes and pass catchers.  Seems like a fair question. 

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

I’ve watched the Bills WR’s competently catch sideline passes all year. They dropped 7 more passes on the season compared to league average. Those 7 drops negatively affected Josh’s performance, but he needs to be better.

 

Can you direct our attention to 2 of those passes where a WR had to do the "toe tap" or "toe drag" this year? I can't remember any.

 

Yes, 7 more passes dropped than the league average.

 

7 more catches and Allen's completion percentage is 60.3%.

 

Yes Allen needs to get better moving forward, but look backward and pause for a minute and comprehend that where Allen is in year 2 is the kind of really significant progress that can give us all hope, and if he makes a similar step from year 2 to year 3, there will be genuine reason to start the Franchise QB talk and work to potentially lock him up long term next offseason.

[transplantbillsfan]

4 hours ago, Augie said:

 

I’m talking mostly of Knox, who clearly looked to run a few times before he had possession. A couple of those were huge plays in a close game. Maybe you missed that, or maybe it doesn’t play into your narrative. 

 

 

 

Yes, there were multiple Knox drops in critical situations in critical areas of the field that sucked.

 

If he can be more consistent catching the ball, he can be a BEAST for us for years.

[transplantbillsfan]

19 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

No agenda.  Just an observation. I read over and over Josh's comp % is low due to drops.  Ok.  Why does he have so many 2 years in a row with different pass catchers?  The theory I read over and over it was the receivers.  Maybe Josh contributes somehow?    Not saying it's Josh's fault, but maybe it's both?  The passes and pass catchers.  Seems like a fair question. 

 

Well, our biggest culprit was Dawson Knox by far. Raw rookie Tight End who didn't catch many passes at all in college.

 

His drops make complete sense to me, which is why I'm so excited moving forward.

 

Knox is the one who really tips the scale.

 

The rest of the offensive weapons may just suffer from being a rung higher on the totem pole than they should be; Brown isn't a true #1 NFL WR... but he's a fantastic #2.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Allen's accuracy is the least of his problems IMO. Processing and awareness are still his biggest issues. Both improved this season. Hopefully he improves again in year 3 of the same offense. 

 

I doubt Allen will ever have a decent completion % because of the way he plays. He'll probably always hover between 55% - 60%.

 

Allen is a work in progress. Just keep improving, that's about all we can ask. 

 

 

[Mango]

I think the issue some are having in regards to completion percentage and drops, is that if you were to adjust to average drops, Allen is still ranking too close to the bottom of the totem poll in relation to his peers. 

 

In 2019, 60-61% after being adjusted, is still too far away from the league average. Not to mention, we shouldn’t adjust Allen’s numbers and not the rest of the league. I think it’s a fair point without being ridiculed as having an agenda. 

 

That number will trend much closer to average if Josh can eliminate the clunkers. He has to eliminate the NE x2, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Philly, Cleveland, and Houston. That’s 7 of 17 games trending poorly between 46-53%. Those aren’t games that are 1 catch from being average, those are games we were ineffective at throwing the football almost entirely.

 

There are 10 games where he performed at or above average. We should be happy about that. 7 games are well below average, we can also be very concerned. Those feelings don’t need to be mutually exclusive. 

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Allen's accuracy is the least of his problems IMO. Processing and awareness are still his biggest issues. Both improved this season. Hopefully he improves again in year 3 of the same offense. 

 

I doubt Allen will ever have a decent completion % because of the way he plays. He'll probably always hover between 55% - 60%.

 

Allen is a work in progress. Just keep improving, that's about all we can ask. 

 

 

 

Funny... if Allen's weapons only had even a moderate amount of drops instead of the substantial amount they had this year, he would have already been above your criteria.

 

You're probably wrong.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Funny... if Allen's weapons only had even a moderate amount of drops instead of the substantial amount they had this year, he would have already been above your criteria.

 

You're probably wrong.

If Allen had an average strength of schedule his completion % is lower. His completion % is what it is. Why focus on something that will never be very good? At his best he'll probably be a 62% passer, which isn't good.

 

His career average will likely be somewhere between 55-60. Hopefully closer to 60. It's just not something I care too much about. He's not going to be someone praised for his accuracy.

 

 

Edited January 23, 2020 by Buffalo_Stampede

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

If Allen had an average strength of schedule his completion % is lower. His completion % is what it is. Why focus on something that will never be very good? At his best he'll probably be a 62% passer, which isn't good.

 

His career average will likely be somewhere between 55-60. Hopefully closer to 60. It's just not something I care too much about. He's not going to be someone praised for his accuracy.

 

 

Why make an assumption like this?

[Buffalo_Stampede]

39 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Why make an assumption like this?

What assumption? 55-60%? He's not an accurate passer and the way he plays doesn't allow for a lot of easy completions.

 

It's basically the same area Cam Newton is in. 

Edited January 23, 2020 by Buffalo_Stampede

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

What assumption? 55-60%? He's not an accurate passer and the way he plays doesn't allow for a lot of easy completions.

 

It's basically the same area Cam Newton is in. 

Why assume he can’t get better?  Completion percentage is overblown nonsense with respect to accuracy and this has been pointed out time and time again.  Throw a bunch of short dump offs and your completion percentage increases.  

 

I refer you to the math I did above.  People obsess over this 60% completion rate as if it means something.  For Allen this past season that came down to a difference of 0.25 passes per game, or 4 on the season.  It’s ridiculous to think that can’t be attained.  

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

What assumption? 55-60%? He's not an accurate passer and the way he plays doesn't allow for a lot of easy completions.

 

It's basically the same area Cam Newton is in. 

Didn’t Cam go for 67% 2 seasons ago?

[Buffalo_Stampede]

15 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Didn’t Cam go for 67% 2 seasons ago?

Yeah. Helped raise his career average to 59%.

[BuffaloHokie13]

12 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Didn’t Cam go for 67% 2 seasons ago?

He did! And even with that 14 game season his career % is 59.8. Much like you believe (and I agree) that gross yards are largely a product of attempts, I see completion percentage as a function of the offensive system in place. In 2017, Mike Shula was the OC. In 2018, it was Norv Turner.

[C.Biscuit97]

26 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Didn’t Cam go for 67% 2 seasons ago?

He did and was off to the best passing season of his career before the injuries caught up.  Newton also completed 66% of his passes in the SEC.

 

with Allen, everything we want him to be is a projection.  It’s like when high school kids were allowed to go straight to the pros.  

[thebandit27]

6 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Yeah. Helped raise his career average to 59%.

Huh. So “never” was a bit of an exaggeration then.

 

5 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

He did! And even with that 14 game season his career % is 59.8. Much like you believe (and I agree) that gross yards are largely a product of attempts, I see completion percentage as a function of the offensive system in place. In 2017, Mike Shula was the OC. In 2018, it was Norv Turner.

It certainly is a component of it, yeah.

 

The thing I’ve always said about Cam is that the ball goes where it needs to go when it needs to go there. So far, that’s what Allen looks like as well.

 

I am really hopeful that another offseason in the same system will slow the game down further for Josh. The big leap in his game will come when he doesn’t have to rush a throw because he made a (relatively) late decision or got around to his read later than he needed to.

 

Last offseason I asked for Josh to do the following things in 2019: get more comfortable in the pocket, take more of what the defense gives him, and don’t rush throws. He accomplished about 2.5 of those 3.

 

This offseason is all about immersing himself in the scheme and getting inside the heads of his skill position players. If he can do that, the passing game will be markedly better.

1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

He did and was off to the best passing season of his career before the injuries caught up.  Newton also completed 66% of his passes in the SEC.

 

with Allen, everything we want him to be is a projection.  It’s like when high school kids were allowed to go straight to the pros.  

Everything? I don’t agree with that at all.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

39 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Why assume he can’t get better?  Completion percentage is overblown nonsense with respect to accuracy and this has been pointed out time and time again.  Throw a bunch of short dump offs and your completion percentage increases.  

 

I refer you to the math I did above.  People obsess over this 60% completion rate as if it means something.  For Allen this past season that came down to a difference of 0.25 passes per game, or 4 on the season.  It’s ridiculous to think that can’t be attained.  

I don't think I've ever really criticized Allen for completion %. I don't care about that stat at all. It's a pointless stat. A completed pass can still be a poorly thrown inaccurate pass. Many have already talked about drops. I never really cared much for the stat.

 

I think the biggest simple stat I look at with QB's is TD:Turnover ratio. If Allen can give us 2:1 over his career i'de be very happy. 3:1 is elite territory. He gave us 29:13 in 2019. But he gave us 23:5 from week 5-17. He was 8:3 during that 5 game stretch vs good defense or playoff teams weeks 12-16. People should be optimistic. Forget about Josh Allen's completion %. 

Edited January 23, 2020 by Buffalo_Stampede

[C.Biscuit97]

32 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Why assume he can’t get better?  Completion percentage is overblown nonsense with respect to accuracy and this has been pointed out time and time again.  Throw a bunch of short dump offs and your completion percentage increases.  

 

I refer you to the math I did above.  People obsess over this 60% completion rate as if it means something.  For Allen this past season that came down to a difference of 0.25 passes per game, or 4 on the season.  It’s ridiculous to think that can’t be attained.  

He means something when he is the 32nd ranked passer in the nfl and has never been a really been a 60% passer on any level.

 

that said, he can still be really effective if they cater to his strengths.  I think there were some good moments this year when they did that.

8 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Huh. So “never” was a bit of an exaggeration then.

 

It certainly is a component of it, yeah.

 

The thing I’ve always said about Cam is that the ball goes where it needs to go when it needs to go there. So far, that’s what Allen looks like as well.

 

I am really hopeful that another offseason in the same system will slow the game down further for Josh. The big leap in his game will come when he doesn’t have to rush a throw because he made a (relatively) late decision or got around to his read later than he needed to.

 

Last offseason I asked for Josh to do the following things in 2019: get more comfortable in the pocket, take more of what the defense gives him, and don’t rush throws. He accomplished about 2.5 of those 3.

 

This offseason is all about immersing himself in the scheme and getting inside the heads of his skill position players. If he can do that, the passing game will be markedly better.

Everything? I don’t agree with that at all.

Everything is too strong. There are things like his physical ability, work ethic, and leadership that I have zero questions about.  But we are hoping he is going to be a better passer in the nfl than he was in the MWC.  I think a lot of posters want to dismiss why he didn’t really dominant at a lower conference the way a top 10 pick should.  Especially with his physical tools.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

13 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Huh. So “never” was a bit of an exaggeration then.

Cam Newton's career is between 55-60. Allen could have 1 or 2 years in the low-mid 60s but his completion % is never going to be consistently there. I'm not sure why you're debating that. 

Edited January 23, 2020 by Buffalo_Stampede

[thebandit27]

15 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

He means something when he is the 32nd ranked passer in the nfl and has never been a really been a 60% passer on any level.

 

that said, he can still be really effective if they cater to his strengths.  I think there were some good moments this year when they did that.

Everything is too strong. There are things like his physical ability, work ethic, and leadership that I have zero questions about.  But we are hoping he is going to be a better passer in the nfl than he was in the MWC.  I think a lot of posters want to dismiss why he didn’t really dominant at a lower conference the way a top 10 pick should.  Especially with his physical tools.

He’s already a much more nuanced passer than he was even a year ago, but yes, I understand your point.

 

8 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Cam Newton's career is between 55-60. Allen could have 1 or 2 years in the low-mid 60s but his completion % is never going to be consistently there. I'm not sure why you're debating that. 

 

If Cam can go from mid 50s to 67% over his last season-and-a-half, why can’t Allen? Is Allen less talented? He’s already increased his completion rate by 6 percentage points in a single season, and that’s with his targets dropping passes more frequently than any other group in the game.

 

To dismiss its with a wave of the hand is too presumptuous IMO.

[oldmanfan]

14 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Cam Newton's career is between 55-60. Allen could have 1 or 2 years in the low-mid 60s but his completion % is never going to be consistently there. I'm not sure why you're debating that. 

Why?  Because you are not Nostradamus.

[C.Biscuit97]

2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

He’s already a much more nuanced passer than he was even a year ago, but yes, I understand your point.

 

 

If Cam can go from mid 50s to 67% over his last season-and-a-half, why can’t Allen? Is Allen less talented? He’s already increased his completion rate by 6 percentage points in a single season, and that’s with his targets dropping passes more frequently than any other group in the game.

 

To dismiss its with a wave of the hand is too presumptuous IMO.

You make very valid points. I definitely did see improvement from Allen as a passer this year.  He was a much better mid range passer than last year.  It’s about consistency.

 

and imo, yes, he’s less talented than Cam and I don’t really get anyone can say different.  I think some people don’t like Cam’s attitude but his resume is super legit.  Dominate the best conference in football, won a Heisman, set rookie NFL passing records, broke qb rushing records, won a MVP with Ted Ginn as his #1 wr.  It’s not even knocking Allen but Cam, with his flaws, is one of the most physical talent qbs to enter the nfl in recent history.  Allen certainly has a lot of similar skills but I just think Cam is a better player. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

He’s already a much more nuanced passer than he was even a year ago, but yes, I understand your point.

 

 

If Cam can go from mid 50s to 67% over his last season-and-a-half, why can’t Allen? Is Allen less talented? He’s already increased his completion rate by 6 percentage points in a single season, and that’s with his targets dropping passes more frequently than any other group in the game.

 

To dismiss its with a wave of the hand is too presumptuous IMO.

The 1 year outlier is what you look at? I've never said he can't have a single season over 60%. 

 

He improved his completion % so much because it was so low. 

 

Again it's a stat I really don't take anything from. Rob Johnson had a much higher completion % than Doug Flutie. Who cares.

[oldmanfan]

35 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I don't think I've ever really criticized Allen for completion %. I don't care about that stat at all. It's a pointless stat. A completed pass can still be a poorly thrown inaccurate pass. Many have already talked about drops. I never really cared much for the stat.

 

I think the biggest simple stat I look at with QB's is TD:Turnover ratio. If Allen can give us 2:1 over his career i'de be very happy. 3:1 is elite territory. He gave us 29:13 in 2019. But he gave us 23:5 from week 5-17. He was 8:3 during that 5 game stretch vs good defense or playoff teams weeks 12-16. People should be optimistic. Forget about Josh Allen's completion %. 

I agree on this.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

13 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Why?  Because you are not Nostradamus.

Why? I watch him. You're basically saying Allen will become something he isn't. The thing you have to remember is even if Allen's career average ends up only 59% when it's all over it doesn't mean Allen wasn't a good QB. Allen is just a different style QB. 

Edited January 23, 2020 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Foxx]

18 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

John Brown's best season in the NFL is with Josh Allen as QB. 

 

His 2nd best season was playing with MVP candidate Carson Palmer in 2015 who was also throwing to Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, David Fells and Jermaine Gresham with David Johnson out of the backfield.

 

Cole Beasley's 2nd best season in the NFL is with Josh Allen as QB.

 

His best season was with surprise rookie Dak Prescott, who had his most efficient statistical season while also throwing to Dak Prescott and Jason Witten while handing the ball off to Zeke Elliot.

 

 

If it's the QB and not the WRs, what is it saying that those 2 guys--who were never really considered #1 WRs and were never really expected to perform as such--had career years with Josh Allen at QB?

 

It's the QB, obviously.

 

It's also the Wide Receivers and other offensive weapons, obviously.

 

We need to upgrade our offensive weapons.  Allen needs to work on his game.

 

Both are true.

i'm not so sure.

 

first of all, your post has a typo, Prescott throwing to Prescott.

 

i think the main reason for Brown and Beasers 'career' years were the result of being the the top two available guys more than anything else.

 

 

17 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

I can't stand we're asking a raw QB to pass 60-70% of the game and running the ball when it makes no sense and developing plays that take 3-4 seconds instead of teaching Allen to take shorter routes and let the game come to him.

this times 1000.

 

we need to establish the ground game, be able to run between the tackles. let the game come to Allen, it will serve him much better in any/all respects.

 

Edited January 23, 2020 by Foxx

[oldmanfan]

43 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Why? I watch him. You're basically saying Allen will become something he isn't. The thing you have to remember is even if Allen's career average ends up only 59% when it's all over it doesn't mean Allen wasn't a good QB. Allen is just a different style QB. 

But you have no idea what he’ll become after only two years in the league.  Look at Brees as a classic example of a guy who improved. Or many others.

[jrober38]

19 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

True.

 

Fortunately, deep passes are by far the lowest attempted passes by NFL QBs and Allen improved on those in the 2nd half of the season actually connecting on a handful of them.

 

I think he only connected on one deep ball all year when he hit John Brown and it was like a 30 yard throw.

 

I don't think he hit a single pass that went over 40 yards in the air all season. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

If Allen had an average strength of schedule his completion % is lower. His completion % is what it is. Why focus on something that will never be very good? At his best he'll probably be a 62% passer, which isn't good.

 

His career average will likely be somewhere between 55-60. Hopefully closer to 60. It's just not something I care too much about. He's not going to be someone praised for his accuracy.

 

I'm just super-curious how you know Allen's career trajectory so very exactly.

 

 

[jrober38]

5 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

If Allen had an average strength of schedule his completion % is lower. His completion % is what it is. Why focus on something that will never be very good? At his best he'll probably be a 62% passer, which isn't good.

 

His career average will likely be somewhere between 55-60. Hopefully closer to 60. It's just not something I care too much about. He's not going to be someone praised for his accuracy.

 

 

 

I looked into it.

 

Adjusting all QBs completion percentage for dropped passes, Allen was still 4th worst in the NFL among starting QBs.

 

Eliminating drops, his completion percentage was like 62%. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I think he only connected on one deep ball all year when he hit John Brown and it was like a 30 yard throw.

 

I don't think he hit a single pass that went over 40 yards in the air all season. 

 

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and guess that while you think that, you actually didn't bother to dig up a source and verify one way or the other. 

 

Note that the below doesn't separate air yards from YAC but elsewhere I believe it is opined that Allen's throws are too poor to allow YAC so, Pick One or go look up the plays and determine how many of each for yourself.  This is just PFR, there are better sources out there that break things down more
(Bonus question: how many completions over 40 yds other QB have?)

 

6 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

I looked into it.

Adjusting all QBs completion percentage for dropped passes, Allen was still 4th worst in the NFL among starting QBs.

Eliminating drops, his completion percentage was like 62%. 

 

Care to share that source?  Not that I doubt you or anything, but it's always good to have another source to look into.

[Billl]

13 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

But you have no idea what he’ll become after only two years in the league.  Look at Brees as a classic example of a guy who improved. Or many others.

Brees isn't A classic example.  He's THE example.  Who are these many others?  

[Buffalo_Stampede]

5 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

But you have no idea what he’ll become after only two years in the league.  Look at Brees as a classic example of a guy who improved. Or many others.

It's more about who the player is and style of play. Allen has never been a QB with good accuracy. It's unrealistic to expect a QB that struggled with accuracy in college to get much better with accuracy in the NFL. The guy you probably want to compare Allen to would be Matthew Stafford. A guy that struggled with accuracy in college and then early in the NFL. Stafford improved a lot and became consistent. So it can happen. It's just not something that happens often.

 

I won't be surprised if Allen does become another Stafford though. The guy has changed the narrative on him. Maybe 10 years from now some college QB with accuracy issues looks to Allen as an example.

[jrober38]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and guess that while you think that, you actually didn't bother to dig up a source and verify one way or the other. 

 

Note that the below doesn't separate air yards from YAC but elsewhere I believe it is opined that Allen's throws are too poor to allow YAC so, Pick One or go look up the plays and determine how many of each for yourself.  This is just PFR, there are better sources out there that break things down more
(Bonus question: how many completions over 40 yds other QB have?)

 

 

Care to share that source?  Not that I doubt you or anything, but it's always good to have another source to look into.

 

That's how long the plays were.

 

None of those passes went 40 yards or more in the air.

 

I did math. I literally put the numbers into a calculator and that's what came out.