GunnerBill Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 58 minutes ago, billsbackto81 said: Is he $15 million better? How will his performance be effected without Dareus, Campbell, Jack, Smith and Ramsey? I'd think Shaq and Trent would probably put up better numbers as well in that line up. Apple's to Apple's you are correct, he is marginally better than Trent and markedly better than Shaq as a pass rusher. I don't think it is as marginal as you do to Trent. I actually think where you lose most with him is to Shaq as an edge setter. Murphy isn't a great edge setter either though. Is it a €15m upgrade on Trent? No. But then Trent has a cap hit of $9m next year and only $1.5m to cut him. So the question is actually do I think he is twice as good as Murphy ($15m as against $9m - $1.5m) and yes, I think that logic makes a certain amount of sense. Now you need to pay them both this year, granted but we are not up against the cap. I still think that if he is available for trade and the Jags are willing to take a 2nd I 'd be interested. I should say it still isn't my preference. I am firmly in the pursue Clowney as a FA next spring camp. Not least because I know at that point how close this team is. If I think Clowney is close to a final piece at $20m a year then I am all over it. If this is a 6-10 team on this schedule it is likely they need a lot more than Jadaveon Clowney to contend next year and that makes me more likely to go another route and draft a guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 21 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I kind of feel sorry for Rosen - a bit. Must be tough to go from being a touted 1st round "QB of the Future" to the guy who's "just not as good" as a 14 year veteran who has failed to make good on starting opportunities with 4 different teams. Someone here pointed out that a camp competition between a young QB you expect to develop and a veteran, is almost always a bad idea because the veteran will win every time. He knows more about the offensive system, he knows how to learn the plays faster, how to diagnose the defense - and the things that make it hard to do on Sunday in the Fall, the contact, the pressure, the wear and tear on the body, just aren't there. So either Rosen is not in the Phins long term plans, or they're following a Bad Plan. I think Rosen can learn some very “valuable” stuff from Fitz. The value I speak of is how to hang around in the league forever and collect a fortune doing it! If he can learn that, he’ll be very wealthy, if maybe coming up a little short of his dreams. Fitz is what he is, which is like the NFL version of Groundhogs Day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullBuchanan Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 21 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I kind of feel sorry for Rosen - a bit. Must be tough to go from being a touted 1st round "QB of the Future" to the guy who's "just not as good" as a 14 year veteran who has failed to make good on starting opportunities with 4 different teams. Someone here pointed out that a camp competition between a young QB you expect to develop and a veteran, is almost always a bad idea because the veteran will win every time. He knows more about the offensive system, he knows how to learn the plays faster, how to diagnose the defense - and the things that make it hard to do on Sunday in the Fall, the contact, the pressure, the wear and tear on the body, just aren't there. So either Rosen is not in the Phins long term plans, or they're following a Bad Plan. It's better this way. If they started Rosen he'd get hurt and Fitzmagic would steal his job away at least for a minute. It's happened 7 times, which should be HoF worthy. It's maybe the most insane story in pro football history. Ryan Fitzpatrick - A Football Life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said: It's better this way. If they started Rosen he'd get hurt and Fitzmagic would steal his job away at least for a minute. It's happened 7 times, which should be HoF worthy. It's maybe the most insane story in pro football history. Ryan Fitzpatrick - A Football Life. Fitz is the perfect football life candidate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 1 hour ago, HOUSE said: Are we allowing the word HECK on this board? Think of the kids.. If we allowed the words the kids use, the electrons would melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt_In_NH Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 On 7/27/2019 at 9:29 AM, Phil The Thrill said: Yannick will always be remembered for me as the guy who claimed Richie Incognito called him a racial slur. When asked what the slur was, Yannick responded “I can’t remember.” lets call the waaaaaabulance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CommonCents Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 I’m not sure I’d be super excited about giving either guy big bucks. Let’s use the extra cap money on a big tailgating party instead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted July 28, 2019 Author Share Posted July 28, 2019 On 7/27/2019 at 12:05 PM, Florida Bills Fanatic said: I don't think Beane will be looking to spend draft picks or cash on a FA at this point. There would have to be a real team transforming player available. I don't think this guy or Clowney fit that description. I believe that Beane thinks he has his starters on the roster and that any future moves will be made to improve the depth and special teams at a reasonable cost. Just picks the. Have a year to convince him to sign. Extension on Franchise Players deadline already passed. For BOTH him and Clowney. Because of that I doubt a 1st would be involved on a Rental Player (no telling either would sign long term because have to wait until after season now) On 7/27/2019 at 2:39 PM, GunnerBill said: Clowney > Ngakoue for me. But if you could get Ngakoue without giving up a 1st (which you would have to to get Clowney) they he is certainly a significant upgrade on Trent and Shaq. Neither will bring a first. Why because they are truly rental players. Meaning deadline passed for a long term contract. So Risk would be on team trading for either. So hence why Neither would get a 1st at this point. Seeing the extension has to wait until after season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 8 minutes ago, MAJBobby said: Neither will bring a first. Why because they are truly rental players. Meaning deadline passed for a long term contract. So Risk would be on team trading for either. So hence why Neither would get a 1st at this point. Seeing the extension has to wait until after season. That is true of Clowney. He is tagged. Once you pass the deadline in mid July you can't negotiate with a tagged player. Ngakoue isn't tagged. He is entering year 4 of a 4 year contract. He can be extended at any time. The deadline only applies to tagged players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted July 28, 2019 Author Share Posted July 28, 2019 17 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: That is true of Clowney. He is tagged. Once you pass the deadline in mid July you can't negotiate with a tagged player. Ngakoue isn't tagged. He is entering year 4 of a 4 year contract. He can be extended at any time. The deadline only applies to tagged players. Ooooo yeah that’s right. I don’t know why I clumped him in with being tagged my mistake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat68 Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 Just like with Mack. The new team has a window to negotiate. A trade wont happen without a contract in place. Too early yet. Jaguars with Foles think they are a superbowl contender and wont give up on a talented rusher. Same goes for Houston. You need a team in turmoil. Low key I would look into Chandler Jones in AZ. They will be poor and he makes a lot of money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted July 28, 2019 Author Share Posted July 28, 2019 On 7/27/2019 at 2:45 PM, BullBuchanan said: Apparently Ngakoue balked at a $17.5M/year deal. That's a lot of cap % to pay for ~10 sacks a year. Yep with weak guarantees and short term. 2 hours ago, GunnerBill said: I don't think it is as marginal as you do to Trent. I actually think where you lose most with him is to Shaq as an edge setter. Murphy isn't a great edge setter either though. Is it a €15m upgrade on Trent? No. But then Trent has a cap hit of $9m next year and only $1.5m to cut him. So the question is actually do I think he is twice as good as Murphy ($15m as against $9m - $1.5m) and yes, I think that logic makes a certain amount of sense. Now you need to pay them both this year, granted but we are not up against the cap. I still think that if he is available for trade and the Jags are willing to take a 2nd I 'd be interested. I should say it still isn't my preference. I am firmly in the pursue Clowney as a FA next spring camp. Not least because I know at that point how close this team is. If I think Clowney is close to a final piece at $20m a year then I am all over it. If this is a 6-10 team on this schedule it is likely they need a lot more than Jadaveon Clowney to contend next year and that makes me more likely to go another route and draft a guy. I feel for any team giving Clowney 20m a year. Is value is closer to 15-17 4 minutes ago, Mat68 said: Just like with Mack. The new team has a window to negotiate. A trade wont happen without a contract in place. Too early yet. Jaguars with Foles think they are a superbowl contender and wont give up on a talented rusher. Same goes for Houston. You need a team in turmoil. Low key I would look into Chandler Jones in AZ. They will be poor and he makes a lot of money. Mack wasn’t on a Franchise Tag. He was on his 5th year option. 5 minutes ago, Mat68 said: Just like with Mack. The new team has a window to negotiate. A trade wont happen without a contract in place. Too early yet. Jaguars with Foles think they are a superbowl contender and wont give up on a talented rusher. Same goes for Houston. You need a team in turmoil. Low key I would look into Chandler Jones in AZ. They will be poor and he makes a lot of money. Mack wasn’t on a Franchise Tag. He was on his 5th year option. Clowney cannot have a deal in place until after the year. Only a 1 year deal which will be more than the Tag to get him to sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 15 minutes ago, MAJBobby said: I feel for any team giving Clowney 20m a year. Is value is closer to 15-17 I would want to know everything about his personality which is the bit as fans we just can't get access to. But if I was comfortable that he was a guy who will be able to keep his motivation high then purely on performance I have no problem paying him that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted July 28, 2019 Author Share Posted July 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: I would want to know everything about his personality which is the bit as fans we just can't get access to. But if I was comfortable that he was a guy who will be able to keep his motivation high then purely on performance I have no problem paying him that. I can’t bring myself to give a DE 20M a year that has gotten to 10 sacks once in his career. He slots at about a 15-17M a year guy. Around the Vernon contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinky finger Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 On 7/27/2019 at 12:53 PM, MJS said: I'd rather Rosen start vs us. You never know which Fitz you'll get. Could be a 5 TD day or a 5 INT day. He’s capable of both. In the same game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, MAJBobby said: I can’t bring myself to give a DE 20M a year that has gotten to 10 sacks once in his career. He slots at about a 15-17M a year guy. Around the Vernon contract. As I keep saying.... his pass rush efficiency numbers put him right up there with pretty much everyone. He was a tick less efficient than Mack last year and more efficient than Mack the year before. The reason Jadeveon Clowney doesn't get massive sack numbers is because he rushes less than almost all the guys putting up double digit sacks. He is in a different league to Olivier Vernon. If Clowney came into a defense where his job was hand in the dirt and go hunt that Quarterback every play he isn't just capable of 10 sacks... he would be in the high teens year after year. Character? Motivation? They are questions I think are legitimate. But the questions over his production stand up to absolutely no scrutiny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinky finger Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 On 7/27/2019 at 1:18 PM, GoBills808 said: I love the dude as well, but you can't build a team around a guy that swings hot/cold as hard as he does. Man... It was the best of times....it was the worst of times. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 26 minutes ago, inaugural balls said: He’s capable of both. In the same game. 13 minutes ago, inaugural balls said: It was the best of times....it was the worst of times. ? All true. I'm gonna start another thread on this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinky finger Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 8 hours ago, Mark Vader said: He probably is, but the money he wants makes me pause. Pause?!? I gotta get my ABS checked after seeing what he turned down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinky finger Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 4 hours ago, HOUSE said: Are we allowing the word HECK on this board? Think of the kids.. 1 hour ago, MAJBobby said: Ooooo yeah that’s right. I don’t know why I clumped him in with being tagged my mistake To hell with the kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExWNYer Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 58 minutes ago, inaugural balls said: To hell with the kids. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machine gun kelly Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 On 7/27/2019 at 10:30 AM, BillsFan4 said: Im not so sure about that... ? Sorry, it was an auto correct on my IPad. Funny though. I can’t stand him either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted July 29, 2019 Author Share Posted July 29, 2019 12 hours ago, GunnerBill said: As I keep saying.... his pass rush efficiency numbers put him right up there with pretty much everyone. He was a tick less efficient than Mack last year and more efficient than Mack the year before. The reason Jadeveon Clowney doesn't get massive sack numbers is because he rushes less than almost all the guys putting up double digit sacks. He is in a different league to Olivier Vernon. If Clowney came into a defense where his job was hand in the dirt and go hunt that Quarterback every play he isn't just capable of 10 sacks... he would be in the high teens year after year. Character? Motivation? They are questions I think are legitimate. But the questions over his production stand up to absolutely no scrutiny. Spotrac even agrees with me and they are very good and normally really close to contract projections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 58 minutes ago, MAJBobby said: Spotrac even agrees with me and they are very good and normally really close to contract projections. If we could get him for $17m I'd jump for joy. He will cost more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted July 29, 2019 Author Share Posted July 29, 2019 13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: If we could get him for $17m I'd jump for joy. He will cost more than that. Not getting into a Bidding War over Clowney. If he comes at about where is is valued I would be ok with signing him. However not getting into that Bidding war where I have another bad Contract on the DL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 Just now, MAJBobby said: Not getting into a Bidding War over Clowney. If he comes at about where is is valued I would be ok with signing him. However not getting into that Bidding war where I have another bad Contract on the DL. It wouldn't be a bad contract. He is really, really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted July 29, 2019 Author Share Posted July 29, 2019 1 minute ago, GunnerBill said: It wouldn't be a bad contract. He is really, really good. Not according to here https://www.google.com/amp/s/texanswire.usatoday.com/2019/04/24/texans-jadeveon-clowney-worth-khalil-mack-money/amp/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 Just now, MAJBobby said: Not according to here https://www.google.com/amp/s/texanswire.usatoday.com/2019/04/24/texans-jadeveon-clowney-worth-khalil-mack-money/amp/ Your source is Solomon Wilcots? Really? Yea. I'll stick with my own opinion over his. 100 times out of 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted July 29, 2019 Author Share Posted July 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Your source is Solomon Wilcots? Really? Yea. I'll stick with my own opinion over his. 100 times out of 100. We don’t agree so fine. I will be fine with a 20M a year contract for him if they get out of the Bad Contract to Star. Only willing to risk carrying one bad contract on DL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JESSEFEFFER Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 On 7/27/2019 at 9:24 AM, MAJBobby said: And how they are dealing with the holdout of Yannick Ngakoue. If THAT turns bad (and could with Marrone and Coughlin) Yannick is the DE I would give up assets and big contract for. http://www.nfl.com/player/yannickngakoue/2555421/profile Josh Allen stiff arm to the turf victim on a QB draw TD? I think that was him and, if so, that's all I know about him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 Just now, MAJBobby said: We don’t agree so fine. I will be fine with a 20M a year contract for him if they get out of the Bad Contract to Star. Only willing to risk carrying one bad contract on DL. Yea. I think you are guilty of just looking at the bare numbers when it comes to Clowney. The tape and the advanced analytics show a different story. That said Wilcots is right on one thing - he won't get Mack money.... Mack is $23m p/a. He will get Frank Clark money. He is a better player than Clark. I don't think Clowney would be a bad contract. Star's is but they can't really get out until after 2020. Just now, JESSEFEFFER said: Josh Allen stiff arm to the turf victim on a QB draw TD? I think that was him and, if so, that's all I know about him. It was. He doesn't play the run very well. He is very much a pass rusher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted July 29, 2019 Author Share Posted July 29, 2019 (edited) 15 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Yea. I think you are guilty of just looking at the bare numbers when it comes to Clowney. The tape and the advanced analytics show a different story. That said Wilcots is right on one thing - he won't get Mack money.... Mack is $23m p/a. He will get Frank Clark money. He is a better player than Clark. I don't think Clowney would be a bad contract. Star's is but they can't really get out until after 2020. It was. He doesn't play the run very well. He is very much a pass rusher. But he isn’t. He is an AVG at best pass rusher. And a really good run defender. Plays across from all pro and Mercilus is better rusher than he is as well. 17M max I would go. With incentives Edited July 29, 2019 by MAJBobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 1 minute ago, MAJBobby said: But he isn’t. He is an AVG at best pass rusher. And a really good run defender. Plays across from all pro and Mercilus is better rusher than he is as well When I said he is very much a pass rusher I was on about Ngakoue. That said you are 100% wrong about Clowney. He is an elite edge setter and a very good pass rusher. And while he isn't JJ Watt he is in a different league altogether to Whitney Mercilus who is a nice situational pass rusher and no more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted July 29, 2019 Author Share Posted July 29, 2019 27 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Yea. I think you are guilty of just looking at the bare numbers when it comes to Clowney. The tape and the advanced analytics show a different story. That said Wilcots is right on one thing - he won't get Mack money.... Mack is $23m p/a. He will get Frank Clark money. He is a better player than Clark. I don't think Clowney would be a bad contract. Star's is but they can't really get out until after 2020. It was. He doesn't play the run very well. He is very much a pass rusher. Clowney has more years in NFL and has Less production than Frank Clark. So yeah not as good as Frank Clark hence value = Frank Clark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, MAJBobby said: Clowney has more years in NFL and has Less production than Frank Clark. So yeah not as good as Frank Clark hence value = Frank Clark. No. He doesn't have less production. He has fewer sacks. Way more tackles and approaching double his tackles for loss. The reason he has fewer sacks as I have told you many times is he has fewer pass rush attempts. Frank Clark's pass rush win rate last season was 22%, Jadeveon Clowney's was 35%. The only two players in the NFL who had better pass rush win rates were Aaron Donald and Robert Quinn. The only reason Jadeveon Clowney doesn't have more sacks is because he is asked to rush the passer less than the people he is compared to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted July 29, 2019 Author Share Posted July 29, 2019 1 minute ago, GunnerBill said: No. He doesn't have less production. He has fewer sacks. Way more tackles and approaching double his tackles for loss. The reason he has fewer sacks as I have told you many times is he has fewer pass rush attempts. Frank Clark's pass rush win rate last season was 22%, Jadeveon Clowney's was 35%. The only two players in the NFL who had better pass rush win rates were Aaron Donald and Robert Quinn. The only reason Jadeveon Clowney doesn't have more sacks is because he is asked to rush the passer less than the people he is compared to. We can agree to disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 Just now, MAJBobby said: We can agree to disagree We can. But you will need to bring more to the table than just "sack numbers". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted July 29, 2019 Author Share Posted July 29, 2019 (edited) 3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: We can. But you will need to bring more to the table than just "sack numbers". No I really don’t. But ok what is his production while hand in dirt face to face against on OT and Not having the benefit of Space as a Rush LBer in the 3-4. Cause you know it is all a projection of a 3-4 LBer to DE. Some can do it. (Hughes) many can’t. Edited July 29, 2019 by MAJBobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 11 minutes ago, MAJBobby said: No I really don’t. But ok what is his production while hand in dirt face to face against on OT and Not having the benefit of Space as a Rush LBer in the 3-4. Cause you know it is all a projection of a 3-4 LBer to DE. Some can do it. (Hughes) many can’t. Well 55% of his snaps in 2018 came at defensive end either in 3 or 4 man fronts. He only played OLB 28% of the time (the remainder broke down as 4% at DT, 12% as an off the ball inside backer and 1% as a slot defender). I don't have the numbers infront of me immediately to cross reference the position he lined up against his responsibilities on each individual play but it is wrong to suggest that he benefits greatly from playing primarily out in space. The guy is just an all round outstanding defender. Personally I think the Texans are mad to even consider letting him go. If he reaches the open market there will be a scrum to sign him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted July 29, 2019 Author Share Posted July 29, 2019 9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Well 55% of his snaps in 2018 came at defensive end either in 3 or 4 man fronts. He only played OLB 28% of the time (the remainder broke down as 4% at DT, 12% as an off the ball inside backer and 1% as a slot defender). I don't have the numbers infront of me immediately to cross reference the position he lined up against his responsibilities on each individual play but it is wrong to suggest that he benefits greatly from playing primarily out in space. The guy is just an all round outstanding defender. Personally I think the Texans are mad to even consider letting him go. If he reaches the open market there will be a scrum to sign him. And it is that Scrum I want to stay out of. Will NEVER live up to the Contract he is about to get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts