Aaron Schatz Football Outsiders-- Still Doubts Josh

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, eball said:

 

I view the strength of an OC to be getting the most out of what he has to work with, and my recollection is that Dennison was an "I'm going to play my scheme regardless of who is out there" kind of guy -- who can forget the wide runs with Tolbert?

 

Any run with Tolbert was a wasted play. But he was on the team because McDermott and Beane wanted him there. That wasn't on Dennison either.

[dave mcbride]

15 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

You are confusing accuracy with precision, which I have explained countless times around here.  When you talk about a "perfect spot" that is being both highly accurate AND highly precise.  Look at the dartboard analogy for further explanation.

 

And that PFF thing has issues with it.  It presupposes they know what the perfect spot is on any given throw.  Plus Allen tended to throw downfield more which increases the size if the spot, assuming they know it.

 

I am not a Kool Aid drinker; Allen needs to be more precise on the short passes and I have said so numerous times.  You on the other hand seem to want to vomit up stats without critically analyzing methods used to obtain them and ignore guys around here that have put a ton of time in looking at each throw this kid made.  The reason I like some of the data shown by our colleagues on this board is they used a consistent and to my mind more correct definition of accuracy.

 

 

Oh please. I watched every throw of his last season. But I also watch a lot of other teams with more accurate qbs. He was clearly below average in the accuracy department last year no matter how you slice it. When nearly every analyst says he had accuracy issues last seaosn and he had the lowest completion percentage in the league by a lot, maybe there’s something to it. Lest you were wondering, I am a big Allen fan and thing he has huge upside—potentially elite upside. But I’m not one of those people who feel like they can wish away the Pats and GB games last season (for instance), where he was regularly off the mark. His basic problem is inconsistency, and completion percentage derives from consistency. Even an inaccurate qb will have games where he’s on the mark. Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, and Phillip Rivers, though, are at least pretty accurate virtually every game.

Edited May 29, 2019 by dave mcbride

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

Oh please. I watched every throw of his last season. But I also watch a lot of other teams with more accurate qbs. He was clearly below average in the accuracy department last year no matter how you slice it. When nearly every analyst says he had accuracy issues last seaosn and he had the lowest completion percentage in the league by a lot, maybe there’s something to it. Lest you were wondering, I am a big Allen fan and thing he has huge upside—potentially elite upside. But I’m not one of those people who feel like they can wish away the Pats and GB games last season (for instance), where he was regularly off the mark. His basic problem is inconsistency, and completion percentage derives from consistency. Even an inaccurate qb will have games where he’s on the mark. Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, and Phillip Rivers, though, are at least pretty accurate virtually every game.

So you watched each game.  Did you go through the exhaustive effort to chart each throw like several here have done?  I bet not. 

 

Let me try and explain some things about the errors you and others make in these assessments.  To preface it though, I am like you and I am an Allen fan.  And like you I also see room for improvement in his play.  Unlike you I disagree about this whole accuracy thing, and the reasons I disagree are two fold:  1.  people including many of the so called experts you cite confuse accuracy with precision, and 2. any analysis of the data requires a thorough understanding of the methods used for the analysis, and from my reading the methods are often either unclear or flawed. 

So first, accuracy and precision.  These are different and can be applied to any athletic endeavor where you are throwing an object at a target, from dartboards to pitching to football. These are different as the dartboard analogy shows:  you can be all around the bullseye:  you're accurate and not precise. And you can have each dart hit a specific point on the dartboard, but miles away from the intended target, and then you're precise but you have terrible accuracy.A number of people here tell me they're the same and that I make a distinction that is not worth making.  But that is incorrect, and the pff study you cite even makes that clear, when they talk about trying to measure how often a QB hits a specific spot.  That is precision, and to be clear when pff and others talk about this, what they really mean is that the best QB's, like say a Brees, are both highly accurate AND highly precise.

I have said numerous time around here that Allen could stand to be more precise, or what the commonly used term for that in the NFL:  be better at ball placement.  Ball placement is not accuracy.  Ball placement is putting the ball in a very specific spot, and to that extent I agree with the pff analysis to a degree.  But that is not accuracy, and if you watched Allen especially in the last part of the season he was accurate; he put the ball in the catch radius on the vast majority of passes.  Some were clunkers, true, and I acknowledged those when I posted my analysis of his last couple games when I did this months ago.  So have others here.   

 

So then, why is Allen not more precise?  Mechanics probably play a role to be sure.  but also when you're running for your life it's harder to be precise and when your average length of pass is highest in the league (as shown in the pff study) it's going to affect your precision.  Put another way:  if you want to hit the bulls eye would you rather throw the dart from 2 feet away or 20?   And the other thing to think about, which is one of my critiques of the pff study, is it very well could be that Allen was precise on some throws, but he threw to a spot where he expected the WR to be.  There was one play with Clay that illustrates this.  It was a crossing pattern, and the ball was a bit out front of Clay.  Hit him in the hands and he dropped it.  And so many here used that to say Allen is inaccurate.  But what if he threw that ball EXACTLY where he wanted it, hit the exact spot he wanted to hit, and Clay just messed up being in the right spot.  The flaw as I see it in the pff study is it assumes the receiver is in the exact spot he's supposed to be, and that any blame for being off a perfect spot is on the QB.  I don't agree.  And it will be interesting to see if Allen's ratings from pff increase just because he has a new receiving crew.

 

I review a lot of scientific manuscripts in my job, and I reject about 90% of what I get because there are usually flaws in the Materials and Methods parts of the study, many of which involve statistics.  So in looking at the pff stuff you cited, I find flaws in methodology.  How many observers review each throw from each QB?  Are they the seame  What is the agreement between observers for a specific QB (i.e  interobserver variation)?  How reproducible is one observer's data (i.e. intra-observer variation)?  When they talk about hitting the "perfect spot", who defines that as such?  And based on what criteria?  Those are all questions I have with respect to their data.

 

Now, on to completion percentage.  First, I don't really care what other QB's completion percentages are because completion percentage is not a measure of accuracy.  I will point out the same thing to you that I have pointed out time and time again to folks.  So many say he has to get to 60%, so if he throws an average of 30 passes a game that is 2.4 more completions a game.  And if you look at the percentage drops he had, or the throwaways, there are easily those 2.4 throws a game that get him to the magical 60%.  You and others will say that can apply to other QBs as well, and would also up their completion percentage, to which I say:  So what.  we are talking about Allen here and his performance; other QB performances don't matter.  What matter s is his performance.  And Allen's performance as far as completion percentage is affected by a number of things, some his fault and some not.  He needs to take check downs more often; that alone would increase his completion percentage over the magical 60%.  He needs WRs that get better separation and an O line that gives him more time to set up in the pocket.  My qualitative assessment was that, in the latter part of the season, he was right there with passes when given time in the pocket. 

 

So when I said folks just vomit up stats without really thinking their way through them, the above is what I mean.  Granted, I do this more because of my background, so I geek out over this stuff.  And some of what I see in the pff stuff Is good and some I question.  One thing I think we can all agree on is that Allen needs to continue to improve as he enters his second season.  I personally want to see him make quicker decisions; as I say often for young QBs it's all about the game slowing down enough to make that easier.  I'd like to see more of taking what offense s give him and taking the 5 yard pass rather than force it downfield.  I think having Dorsey around will help him there, as will having guys like Beasley and a TE or two that can actually catch.  And as he has acknowledged himself, Allen needs to be more precise, or as he puts it have better ball placement.  There's a difference in completing a pass and having the receiver tackled right there, vs. having the receiver make a catch and have room to run because the ball is put maybe six inches farther outside, and having both Allen working on mechanics and having more experience PLUS having receivers that know how and when to get to their spot should help there.

 

So as you said, please.  Please read things with a more critical eye. 

 

 

[dlonce]

45 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

So you watched each game.  Did you go through the exhaustive effort to chart each throw like several here have done?  I bet not. 

 

Let me try and explain some things about the errors you and others make in these assessments.  To preface it though, I am like you and I am an Allen fan.  And like you I also see room for improvement in his play.  Unlike you I disagree about this whole accuracy thing, and the reasons I disagree are two fold:  1.  people including many of the so called experts you cite confuse accuracy with precision, and 2. any analysis of the data requires a thorough understanding of the methods used for the analysis, and from my reading the methods are often either unclear or flawed. 

So first, accuracy and precision.  These are different and can be applied to any athletic endeavor where you are throwing an object at a target, from dartboards to pitching to football. These are different as the dartboard analogy shows:  you can be all around the bullseye:  you're accurate and not precise. And you can have each dart hit a specific point on the dartboard, but miles away from the intended target, and then you're precise but you have terrible accuracy.A number of people here tell me they're the same and that I make a distinction that is not worth making.  But that is incorrect, and the pff study you cite even makes that clear, when they talk about trying to measure how often a QB hits a specific spot.  That is precision, and to be clear when pff and others talk about this, what they really mean is that the best QB's, like say a Brees, are both highly accurate AND highly precise.

I have said numerous time around here that Allen could stand to be more precise, or what the commonly used term for that in the NFL:  be better at ball placement.  Ball placement is not accuracy.  Ball placement is putting the ball in a very specific spot, and to that extent I agree with the pff analysis to a degree.  But that is not accuracy, and if you watched Allen especially in the last part of the season he was accurate; he put the ball in the catch radius on the vast majority of passes.  Some were clunkers, true, and I acknowledged those when I posted my analysis of his last couple games when I did this months ago.  So have others here.   

 

So then, why is Allen not more precise?  Mechanics probably play a role to be sure.  but also when you're running for your life it's harder to be precise and when your average length of pass is highest in the league (as shown in the pff study) it's going to affect your precision.  Put another way:  if you want to hit the bulls eye would you rather throw the dart from 2 feet away or 20?   And the other thing to think about, which is one of my critiques of the pff study, is it very well could be that Allen was precise on some throws, but he threw to a spot where he expected the WR to be.  There was one play with Clay that illustrates this.  It was a crossing pattern, and the ball was a bit out front of Clay.  Hit him in the hands and he dropped it.  And so many here used that to say Allen is inaccurate.  But what if he threw that ball EXACTLY where he wanted it, hit the exact spot he wanted to hit, and Clay just messed up being in the right spot.  The flaw as I see it in the pff study is it assumes the receiver is in the exact spot he's supposed to be, and that any blame for being off a perfect spot is on the QB.  I don't agree.  And it will be interesting to see if Allen's ratings from pff increase just because he has a new receiving crew.

 

I review a lot of scientific manuscripts in my job, and I reject about 90% of what I get because there are usually flaws in the Materials and Methods parts of the study, many of which involve statistics.  So in looking at the pff stuff you cited, I find flaws in methodology.  How many observers review each throw from each QB?  Are they the seame  What is the agreement between observers for a specific QB (i.e  interobserver variation)?  How reproducible is one observer's data (i.e. intra-observer variation)?  When they talk about hitting the "perfect spot", who defines that as such?  And based on what criteria?  Those are all questions I have with respect to their data.

 

Now, on to completion percentage.  First, I don't really care what other QB's completion percentages are because completion percentage is not a measure of accuracy.  I will point out the same thing to you that I have pointed out time and time again to folks.  So many say he has to get to 60%, so if he throws an average of 30 passes a game that is 2.4 more completions a game.  And if you look at the percentage drops he had, or the throwaways, there are easily those 2.4 throws a game that get him to the magical 60%.  You and others will say that can apply to other QBs as well, and would also up their completion percentage, to which I say:  So what.  we are talking about Allen here and his performance; other QB performances don't matter.  What matter s is his performance.  And Allen's performance as far as completion percentage is affected by a number of things, some his fault and some not.  He needs to take check downs more often; that alone would increase his completion percentage over the magical 60%.  He needs WRs that get better separation and an O line that gives him more time to set up in the pocket.  My qualitative assessment was that, in the latter part of the season, he was right there with passes when given time in the pocket. 

 

So when I said folks just vomit up stats without really thinking their way through them, the above is what I mean.  Granted, I do this more because of my background, so I geek out over this stuff.  And some of what I see in the pff stuff Is good and some I question.  One thing I think we can all agree on is that Allen needs to continue to improve as he enters his second season.  I personally want to see him make quicker decisions; as I say often for young QBs it's all about the game slowing down enough to make that easier.  I'd like to see more of taking what offense s give him and taking the 5 yard pass rather than force it downfield.  I think having Dorsey around will help him there, as will having guys like Beasley and a TE or two that can actually catch.  And as he has acknowledged himself, Allen needs to be more precise, or as he puts it have better ball placement.  There's a difference in completing a pass and having the receiver tackled right there, vs. having the receiver make a catch and have room to run because the ball is put maybe six inches farther outside, and having both Allen working on mechanics and having more experience PLUS having receivers that know how and when to get to their spot should help there.

 

So as you said, please.  Please read things with a more critical eye. 

 

 

Absolutely agree.

 

Allens a downfield thrower who doesn’t utilize short dump offs. Dump offs to RBs are the difference in accuracy numbers.

Going  3 for 3 on check downs puts the accuracy stat into normal range. 

Those really accurate QBs use short routes. Allen’s numbers would rise dramatically.

Stats do not tell the whole story here.

 

Im very confident the guy who is the topic of this has not actually watched Allen, just relies on stats.

He hated Allen coming out of college and is doing his best to justify his hate.

Analytics my ass.

Edited May 29, 2019 by dlonce

[dlonce]

22 hours ago, K-9 said:

Well, that’s why I ask everybody, what’s the cutoff number for completion percentage that says you’re a bust if you’re below it and a success if you’re above it? 

 

What was the benchmark in 1983? 

 

It is a better yardstick to compare among the entire peer group and even then, it’s just one metric of many that go into an honest analysis of a QBs effectiveness at the position. 

 

Completion percentage is just not the be all end all that certain detractors want to make it out to be in support of a biased analaysis.

There was no benchmark in 1983. It was all about winning.

[eball]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Any run with Tolbert was a wasted play. But he was on the team because McDermott and Beane wanted him there. That wasn't on Dennison either.

 

Tolbert up the middle frequently gained solid yardage.  Dennison is to blame for the play calling that sent Tolbert out wide.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

Aaron Schatz?  as far as his doubts go, who gives a schatz?

 

coach sees more and knows more about JA then some writer and his opinion.

 

Bills OC sees Year 2 leap coming from QB Josh Allen

 

The Buffalo Bills spent the offseason buffering the offense around Josh Allen.

 

From pass-catching additions (John Brown, Cole Beasley, Tyler Kroft, Dawson Knox) to running back depth (Frank Gore, T.J. Yeldon, Devin Singletary) to needed offensive line upgrades (Mitch Morse, Ty Nsekhe, Cody Ford, Quinton Spain), Buffalo has made improvements at every level.

 

Now it's on second-year quarterback Josh Allen to take those enhancements and excel.

 

Thus far, coordinator Brian Daboll likes the strides the signal-caller has made this offseason.

 

By most accounts from early in offseason workouts, Allen has improved. During an up-and-down rookie campaign, the big-armed signal-caller showed flashes of playmaking ability with bouts of struggles.

 

His improvements down the stretch, however, portended to a developed Year 2 if he made strides in the offseason.

 

According to Daboll, the work his quarterback has done this offseason has helped, but there are still more advances to be made.

Edited May 29, 2019 by DaBillsFanSince1973

[K-9]

9 minutes ago, dlonce said:

There was no benchmark in 1983. It was all about winning.

It’s always been about winning, just as it is today. 

 

What I’d like to know, since 60% seems to be the magical demarcation between bust or success today is, what was the number when some great QBs were on their way to HOF careers without not only hitting 60% their first year, but didn’t even hit 50% as was the case with Elway, for example. 

[freddyjj]

LOL.  ?

 

 

This dude probably throws the ball with it sideways in his hand without using the laces.  Last pick in gym class syndrome at work here!

 

 

Edited May 29, 2019 by freddyjj

[Royale with Cheese]

Midwestern accent Word of the Day

 

"When I eat a spicy supper, I usually have to sit on the commode the next morning taking a big schatz"

[freddyjj]

5 minutes ago, K-9 said:

It’s always been about winning, just as it is today. 

 

What I’d like to know, since 60% seems to be the magical demarcation between bust or success today is, what was the number when some great QBs were on their way to HOF careers without not only hitting 60% their first year, but didn’t even hit 50% as was the case with Elway, for example. 

Add Marino and Kelly to that list - sub 60%ers

Edited May 29, 2019 by freddyjj

[dave mcbride]

2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

So you watched each game.  Did you go through the exhaustive effort to chart each throw like several here have done?  I bet not. 

 

Let me try and explain some things about the errors you and others make in these assessments.  To preface it though, I am like you and I am an Allen fan.  And like you I also see room for improvement in his play.  Unlike you I disagree about this whole accuracy thing, and the reasons I disagree are two fold:  1.  people including many of the so called experts you cite confuse accuracy with precision, and 2. any analysis of the data requires a thorough understanding of the methods used for the analysis, and from my reading the methods are often either unclear or flawed. 

So first, accuracy and precision.  These are different and can be applied to any athletic endeavor where you are throwing an object at a target, from dartboards to pitching to football. These are different as the dartboard analogy shows:  you can be all around the bullseye:  you're accurate and not precise. And you can have each dart hit a specific point on the dartboard, but miles away from the intended target, and then you're precise but you have terrible accuracy.A number of people here tell me they're the same and that I make a distinction that is not worth making.  But that is incorrect, and the pff study you cite even makes that clear, when they talk about trying to measure how often a QB hits a specific spot.  That is precision, and to be clear when pff and others talk about this, what they really mean is that the best QB's, like say a Brees, are both highly accurate AND highly precise.

I have said numerous time around here that Allen could stand to be more precise, or what the commonly used term for that in the NFL:  be better at ball placement.  Ball placement is not accuracy.  Ball placement is putting the ball in a very specific spot, and to that extent I agree with the pff analysis to a degree.  But that is not accuracy, and if you watched Allen especially in the last part of the season he was accurate; he put the ball in the catch radius on the vast majority of passes.  Some were clunkers, true, and I acknowledged those when I posted my analysis of his last couple games when I did this months ago.  So have others here.   

 

So then, why is Allen not more precise?  Mechanics probably play a role to be sure.  but also when you're running for your life it's harder to be precise and when your average length of pass is highest in the league (as shown in the pff study) it's going to affect your precision.  Put another way:  if you want to hit the bulls eye would you rather throw the dart from 2 feet away or 20?   And the other thing to think about, which is one of my critiques of the pff study, is it very well could be that Allen was precise on some throws, but he threw to a spot where he expected the WR to be.  There was one play with Clay that illustrates this.  It was a crossing pattern, and the ball was a bit out front of Clay.  Hit him in the hands and he dropped it.  And so many here used that to say Allen is inaccurate.  But what if he threw that ball EXACTLY where he wanted it, hit the exact spot he wanted to hit, and Clay just messed up being in the right spot.  The flaw as I see it in the pff study is it assumes the receiver is in the exact spot he's supposed to be, and that any blame for being off a perfect spot is on the QB.  I don't agree.  And it will be interesting to see if Allen's ratings from pff increase just because he has a new receiving crew.

 

I review a lot of scientific manuscripts in my job, and I reject about 90% of what I get because there are usually flaws in the Materials and Methods parts of the study, many of which involve statistics.  So in looking at the pff stuff you cited, I find flaws in methodology.  How many observers review each throw from each QB?  Are they the seame  What is the agreement between observers for a specific QB (i.e  interobserver variation)?  How reproducible is one observer's data (i.e. intra-observer variation)?  When they talk about hitting the "perfect spot", who defines that as such?  And based on what criteria?  Those are all questions I have with respect to their data.

 

Now, on to completion percentage.  First, I don't really care what other QB's completion percentages are because completion percentage is not a measure of accuracy.  I will point out the same thing to you that I have pointed out time and time again to folks.  So many say he has to get to 60%, so if he throws an average of 30 passes a game that is 2.4 more completions a game.  And if you look at the percentage drops he had, or the throwaways, there are easily those 2.4 throws a game that get him to the magical 60%.  You and others will say that can apply to other QBs as well, and would also up their completion percentage, to which I say:  So what.  we are talking about Allen here and his performance; other QB performances don't matter.  What matter s is his performance.  And Allen's performance as far as completion percentage is affected by a number of things, some his fault and some not.  He needs to take check downs more often; that alone would increase his completion percentage over the magical 60%.  He needs WRs that get better separation and an O line that gives him more time to set up in the pocket.  My qualitative assessment was that, in the latter part of the season, he was right there with passes when given time in the pocket. 

 

So when I said folks just vomit up stats without really thinking their way through them, the above is what I mean.  Granted, I do this more because of my background, so I geek out over this stuff.  And some of what I see in the pff stuff Is good and some I question.  One thing I think we can all agree on is that Allen needs to continue to improve as he enters his second season.  I personally want to see him make quicker decisions; as I say often for young QBs it's all about the game slowing down enough to make that easier.  I'd like to see more of taking what offense s give him and taking the 5 yard pass rather than force it downfield.  I think having Dorsey around will help him there, as will having guys like Beasley and a TE or two that can actually catch.  And as he has acknowledged himself, Allen needs to be more precise, or as he puts it have better ball placement.  There's a difference in completing a pass and having the receiver tackled right there, vs. having the receiver make a catch and have room to run because the ball is put maybe six inches farther outside, and having both Allen working on mechanics and having more experience PLUS having receivers that know how and when to get to their spot should help there.

 

So as you said, please.  Please read things with a more critical eye. 

 

 

I was a man on an island here in saying that the throw to Clay was poor, and I stand by that 100 percent despite taking massive heat. Clay could have caught it, but it would have been a near-circus catch. That said, Allen made a great play just getting into position to make that throw, so it wasn't all bad. But it wasn't accurate. Re: precision and accuracy, you're splitting hairs, and you seem to be aligning with my own view of the matter in your penultimate paragraph. JP Losman had "in the vicinity" accuracy (as you define it) too, but he didn't hit receivers in stride and hence tons of potential yardage gained was left on the field of play. Basically, I regard precision as a the highest form accuracy, and it's what all good qbs strive for.  In other words, they are not different concepts. Rather, precision is a subcategory within the overall category of accuracy. In baseball terms, it's the difference between command and control. Good control but poor command? You're gonna get shelled. The occasional vicinity thrower like Cam Newton can succeed, but he'd better if he threw with more precision. Can Allen get there? I think so. He never has to labor to throw and he's tall enough to see the field, so that's never going to be an issue. A lot of is mental too, and he's both intelligent and confident in his abilities. I am therefore hopeful that he can straighten out the inconsistency in his mechanics, a problem that was present in college. And he did look a bit better in this area later in the season, so I'm hoping for significant progress in 2019.

But he wasn't an accurate qb last year. 

[oldmanfan]

7 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I was a man on an island here in saying that the throw to Clay was poor, and I stand by that 100 percent despite taking massive heat. Clay could have caught it, but it would have been a near-circus catch. That said, Allen made a great play just getting into position to make that throw, so it wasn't all bad. But it wasn't accurate. Re: precision and accuracy, you're splitting hairs, and you seem to be aligning with my own view of the matter in your penultimate paragraph. JP Losman had "in the vicinity" accuracy (as you define it) too, but he didn't hit receivers in stride and hence tons of potential yardage gained was left on the field of play. Basically, I regard precision as a the highest form accuracy, and it's what all good qbs strive for.  In other words, they are not different concepts. Rather, precision is a subcategory within the overall category of accuracy. In baseball terms, it's the difference between command and control. Good control but poor command? You're gonna get shelled. The occasional vicinity thrower like Cam Newton can succeed, but he'd better if he threw with more precision. Can Allen get there? I think so. He never has to labor to throw and he's tall enough to see the field, so that's never going to be an issue. A lot of is mental too, and he's both intelligent and confident in his abilities. I am therefore hopeful that he can straighten out the inconsistency in his mechanics, a problem that was present in college. And he did look a bit better in this area later in the season, so I'm hoping for significant progress in 2019.

But he wasn't an accurate qb last year. 

Ok.  I give up.  Accuracy and precision are different things, acknowledged by those experienced and conversant in statistics, but you want to just ignore that because it either doesn't fit your narrative or makes you think about things more than you care to.   Your baseball thing?  Greg Mattox.  Great accuracy AND great precision - could paint the corners.  If he was just precise he might hit the same spot every time, but walk every guy because that spot was out of the strike zone.    Let me suggest you never make a bet throwing darts if this is your concept - you'd lose your shirt.

 

And as for the Clay missed catch, I am not referring to the one he dropped in the end zone.  Which he should have caught.  I am referring to a throw across the middle where it hit Clay in the hands a bit in front of him, and a select few here want to blame Allen.

 

When I read stuff like yours and others, I am not sure whether to accept your statement that you want Allen to succeed or not.  I believe you do, hope you do, but the amount of criticism heaped on a kid after this first year, in which he missed 6 games plus where he showed improvement in his last few games is mind boggling.  When did things change from when people used to understand players get better with experience to where they should be a completed project year one and then get even better from there? 

[K-9]

5 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

.When I read stuff like yours and others, I am not sure whether to accept your statement that you want Allen to succeed or not.  I believe you do, hope you do, but the amount of criticism heaped on a kid after this first year, in which he missed 6 games plus where he showed improvement in his last few games is mind boggling.  When did things change from when people used to understand players get better with experience to where they should be a completed project year one and then get even better from there? 

Hard to pinpoint exactly when it started, but I’d suggest it was when the culture went to a 24/7, 365 news cycle, accelerated with the advent of the internet and subsequent specialized media saturation, and then went supernova with the advent of social media and the ability to propagate stream of conscious opinion to the masses repeatedly. 

[oldmanfan]

17 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Hard to pinpoint exactly when it started, but I’d suggest it was when the culture went to a 24/7, 365 news cycle, accelerated with the advent of the internet and subsequent specialized media saturation, and then went supernova with the advent of social media and the ability to propagate stream of conscious opinion to the masses repeatedly. 

Good point

[dave mcbride]

47 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Ok.  I give up.  Accuracy and precision are different things, acknowledged by those experienced and conversant in statistics, but you want to just ignore that because it either doesn't fit your narrative or makes you think about things more than you care to.   Your baseball thing?  Greg Mattox.  Great accuracy AND great precision - could paint the corners.  If he was just precise he might hit the same spot every time, but walk every guy because that spot was out of the strike zone.    Let me suggest you never make a bet throwing darts if this is your concept - you'd lose your shirt.

 

And as for the Clay missed catch, I am not referring to the one he dropped in the end zone.  Which he should have caught.  I am referring to a throw across the middle where it hit Clay in the hands a bit in front of him, and a select few here want to blame Allen.

 

When I read stuff like yours and others, I am not sure whether to accept your statement that you want Allen to succeed or not.  I believe you do, hope you do, but the amount of criticism heaped on a kid after this first year, in which he missed 6 games plus where he showed improvement in his last few games is mind boggling.  When did things change from when people used to understand players get better with experience to where they should be a completed project year one and then get even better from there? 

No, I want him to succeed and I'm high on him. Really. I'm also referring to the end zone play. I don't recall the play you're referring to, but I know Clay wasn't good last season. 

As for precision vs. accuracy, the problem with the initial quote from the Buffalo News (drawing from PFF) is that the term "precision" should never have been used. Rather, a term like "pinpoint accuracy" should have been used because it better captures what they were trying to say given that the ultimate goal is to measure the degree to which the ball went exactly to where it should have gone (i.e., accuracy). As for accuracy vs. precision, they are related concepts in many realms, as the long OED definition of "precision" specifies in some detail (i work for Oxford UP and have access which you don't have, so you'll have to take my word for it). But I gather that you're referring to this, which makes sense to me: https://labwrite.ncsu.edu/Experimental Design/accuracyprecision.htm. So thanks for that. Anyway, what's described in the News piece isn't precision as it's laid out here. They're really referring to "highly accurate." 

34 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Hard to pinpoint exactly when it started, but I’d suggest it was when the culture went to a 24/7, 365 news cycle, accelerated with the advent of the internet and subsequent specialized media saturation, and then went supernova with the advent of social media and the ability to propagate stream of conscious opinion to the masses repeatedly. 

... and yet I never even remotely meant what he implies here. 

Edited May 29, 2019 by dave mcbride

[K-9]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

... and yet I never even remotely meant what he implies here. 

Of course not. And I wasn’t attaching any part of any of your posts to that portion of his post that I highlighted.

 

I thought it was an interesting question and comment on our society and the move towards impatience in our instant gratification culture.

[oldmanfan]

10 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

No, I want him to succeed and I'm high on him. Really. I'm also referring to the end zone play. I don't recall the play you're referring to, but I know Clay wasn't good last season. 

As for precision vs. accuracy, the problem with the initial quote from the Buffalo News (drawing from PFF) is that the term "precision" should never have been used. Rather, a term like "pinpoint accuracy" should have been used because it better captures what they were trying to say given that the ultimate goal is to measure the degree to which the ball went exactly to where it should have gone (i.e., accuracy). As for accuracy vs. precision, they are related concepts in many realms, as the long OED definition of "precision" specifies in some detail (i work for Oxford UP and have access which you don't have, so you'll have to take my word for it). But I gather that you're referring to this, which makes sense to me: https://labwrite.ncsu.edu/Experimental Design/accuracyprecision.htm. What's described in the News piece isn't precision as it's laid out here. They're really referring to "highly accurate." 

... and yet I never even remotely meant what he implies here. 

We are just going to have to disagree on accuracy vs. precision.  They are different things.  I appreciate your dictionary reference and Thurman has also thrown this out as somehow suggesting it ends the discussion.  But anyone who has studied statistics knows they are different.  All NFL QBs have to be accurate; they would never even get a whiff of an NFL practice field if they are not.  But the greats combine that with being very precise, or pinpoint if you want to use that, or ball placement if that works for you.

 

i join with you in hoping and anticipating that we'll see significant improvement in our young QB.

[dave mcbride]

20 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

We are just going to have to disagree on accuracy vs. precision.  They are different things.  I appreciate your dictionary reference and Thurman has also thrown this out as somehow suggesting it ends the discussion.  But anyone who has studied statistics knows they are different.  All NFL QBs have to be accurate; they would never even get a whiff of an NFL practice field if they are not.  But the greats combine that with being very precise, or pinpoint if you want to use that, or ball placement if that works for you.

 

i join with you in hoping and anticipating that we'll see significant improvement in our young QB.

The thing is, we work in different worlds. In statistics, you're right; in the realm of enlightenment-era and 19th century philosophy, though, you're wrong. The demand for "precision" by an actor in the latter realm essentially assumes intent, and the intent is to provide a more accurate rendering of either phenomena or concepts. I'm more from the latter world, as you might have guessed by now ... 

 

But I do take your point. 

Edited May 29, 2019 by dave mcbride

[oldmanfan]

4 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The thing is, we work in different worlds. In statistics, you're right; in the realm of enlightenment-era and 19th century philosophy, though, you're wrong. The demand for "precision" by an actor in the latter realm essentially assumes intent, and the intent is to provide a more accurate rendering of either phenomena or concepts. I'm more from the latter world, as you might have guessed by now ... 

 

But I do take your point. 

I get the acting thing for sure.  My daughter is a professional actor and singer and I hear that all the time, trust me.  In fact, she is waiting t hear from the Bills if she gets to sing the anthem this year.  The Bills put out a request for singers, and she just kills the anthem.  Keep your fingers crossed.