Bills should draft TJ Hockenson

[Bangarang]

40 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

He was good on the Bears.

 

Howard, Ingram and Njoku look promising from 2017.  Obviously, we don't know about Hurst from last year.  Eifert from 2013 wasn't a bust nor was Gresham in 2010.  Health Miller in 2005.  

 

I don't see much more of a bust rate than for any other position. 

 

Eifert literally can’t stay on the field unfortunately.

 

Guys like Gresham are decent but 3700 yards in 9 seasons is not something I’d be thrilled about from the 9th overall pick.

 

This is the kind of thing bad teams do when they are so focused on drafting for need. There are going to be better players at 9.

Edited February 26, 2019 by Bangarang

[billspro]

Drafting him in round 1 and an OL in round 2 would be the best case scenario. I hope he falls to 9, that is my biggest concern.

15 minutes ago, CajunBillsBacker said:

Those who think the Bills can trade down and get him are still reading old news. He won’t last past 15 at the latest, and there’s a chance he won’t even make it to 9.

 

bottom line if he’s your target, you have to take him at 9 if he’s there.

 

This is spot on. He is probably going to have a great combine too. If he falls to nine we are lucky, he is the best offensive player in the draft imo.

[Bangarang]

2 minutes ago, billspro said:

Drafting him in round 1 and an OL in round 2 would be the best case scenario. I hope he falls to 9, that is my biggest concern.

 

Theres absolutely zero chance he is taken before 9.

[SWATeam]

6 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

Eifert literally can’t stay on the field unfortunately.

 

Guys like Gresham are decent but 3700 yards in 9 seasons is not something I’d be thrilled about from the 9th overall pick.

 

This is the kind of thing bad teams do when they are so focused on drafting for need. There are going to be better players at 9.

Interestingly, if you go back to 2000, it gets even better.  Winslow Jr. in 2004, Dallas Clark in 2003, Shockey in 2002, Heap in 2001, and Bubba Franks in 2000.

 

I agree, don't draft for need, and this guy isn't on my short list.  But I see far too many people just parroting that 1st round TE's never work out.

 

 

[Augie]

24 minutes ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:

 

Loads of good discussion in this thread too.  I am not in favor of drafting Hockenson at 9, as I feel like a stud defensive player is going to slide to us (e.g., Allen, Oliver, Ferrell).  Also, I feel as though there is good TE depth in this draft.

 

Maybe this is irrational exuberance on my part, but I feel very good that there will still be an elite (vs very good) player available at #9. Moreso than I usually would, and this is especially true if a couple QB’s sneak in ahead of our spot. If it’s DLine, I’m quite fine with that. 

[Johnny Hammersticks]

Just now, Augie said:

 

Maybe this is irrational exuberance on my part, but I feel very good that there will still be an elite (vs very good) player available at #9. Moreso than I usually would, and this is especially true if a couple QB’s sneak in ahead of our spot. If it’s DLine, I’m quite fine with that. 

 

I share your exuberance.  I think with Haskins,  Murray, Metcalf, and potentially Jonah Williams going in the top 10, one of those 3-4 elite defenders is going to slide to us.  I would love Allen, Oliver, or Quinnen Williams especially.

[SWATeam]

2 minutes ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:

 

I share your exuberance.  I think with Haskins,  Murray, Metcalf, and potentially Jonah Williams going in the top 10, one of those 3-4 elite defenders is going to slide to us.  I would love Allen, Oliver, or Quinnen Williams especially.

I cannot understand why Brian Burns is not being included in this group.  I guess people are concerned about his weight, but he plays big to my eye.  I see a stud 4-3 DE that bends like a freak.

Edited February 26, 2019 by SWATeam

[Alphadawg7]

I would absolutely love Hockenson or Metcalf and I wont be mad at either guys being chosen at #9.  I still hope we can trade back a few spots between 10 and 15 as I think we could still get a premium pick there and maybe even Hockenson or Metcalf still.  Although there is talk both could go top 10, especially Metcalf if he has the combine people are expecting.

[SWATeam]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I would absolutely love Hockenson or Metcalf and I wont be mad at either guys being chosen at #9.  I still hope we can trade back a few spots between 10 and 15 as I think we could still get a premium pick there and maybe even Hockenson or Metcalf still.  Although there is talk both could go top 10, especially Metcalf if he has the combine people are expecting.

I think Allen to Metcalf could be special.

 

I'm worried he doesn't last until 9

[Jay_Fixit]

TE at 9... No thanks.

 

More talented players will be there at 9.

[Bangarang]

20 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

Interestingly, if you go back to 2000, it gets even better.  Winslow Jr. in 2004, Dallas Clark in 2003, Shockey in 2002, Heap in 2001, and Bubba Franks in 2000.

 

I agree, don't draft for need, and this guy isn't on my short list.  But I see far too many people just parroting that 1st round TE's never work out.

 

 

 

If we trade back into the late teens then I’d feel better about it. My biggest issue is that I don’t think we’ll get the return we are hoping for by taking a TE at 9.

[Alphadawg7]

18 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

Theres absolutely zero chance he is taken before 9.

 

Thats not really accurate though given there is talk he could go in the top 8 right now.  Top 10 is defensive heavy, but not every team needs defensive help over offensive help.  Teams like Lions and Jags have good defenses and desperately need offensive help.  And if guys like Hockenson and Metcalf go to the combine and blow people away, then both those teams at 7 and 8 could be hot on either or both those guys.  

 

Jags interest will likely come down to whether or not there is a QB they really feel good about there or if they decide to get a veteran and then wait til next year to draft a QB.  I personally still think they will go QB right now though.  FA will be telling to their plans though at the draft.

 

Don't underestimate the rise of the TE in recent years.  A dynamic TE is almost unguardable and teams have taken notice.  Guys like Kelce, Kittle, Ertz, Howard, Ebron, etc have put teams on notice that the TE has gone from being a luxury to a focal point.  Gone are the days of just 2 or 3 premiere TEs around the league, and more and more teams are investing heavy in this position.  

 

Personally, Hockenson and Metcalf are the two guys I want the most right now and I hope at least one is still on the board when we pick at 9 or after a trade down.  

[Bangarang]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Thats not really accurate though given there is talk he could go in the top 8 right now.  Top 10 is defensive heavy, but not every team needs defensive help over offensive help.  Teams like Lions and Jags have good defenses and desperately need offensive help.  And if guys like Hockenson and Metcalf go to the combine and blow people away, then both those teams at 7 and 8 could be hot on either or both those guys.  

 

Jags interest will likely come down to whether or not there is a QB they really feel good about there or if they decide to get a veteran and then wait til next year to draft a QB.  I personally still think they will go QB right now though.  FA will be telling to their plans though at the draft.

 

Don't underestimate the rise of the TE in recent years.  A dynamic TE is almost unguardable and teams have taken notice.  Guys like Kelce, Kittle, Ertz, Howard, Ebron, etc have put teams on notice that the TE has gone from being a luxury to a focal point.  Gone are the days of just 2 or 3 premiere TEs around the league, and more and more teams are investing heavy in this position.  

 

Personally, Hockenson and Metcalf are the two guys I want the most right now and I hope at least one is still on the board when we pick at 9 or after a trade down.  

 

Mark it down. He isn’t going top 8. I risk my internet reputation on it.

[BuffalothruMyVeins]

I am REALLY intrigued by the idea of drafting him in the 1st, but I am wary that we might pull a Sammy Watkins again and, at a position of very high depth in the draft, select the top guy at a very premium position, vs utilizing the depth of the position and getting a guy who is still a very skilled player where it is a better value a little bit later.

 

If they drop back to 15 or so and add a 2nd rounder, I am crazy for the pick because we ended up getting a star TE and a starting guard or tackle with that extra pick.

 

If we feel we need the best guy at the deepest position, the Bills talent evaluators had better be certain he is indisputably head and shoulders above the 2nd best TE in this draft, instead of how the Watkins, OBJ etc draft turned out to be.

[Alphadawg7]

17 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

I think Allen to Metcalf could be special.

 

I'm worried he doesn't last until 9

 

You are right, its a very real concern.  Metcalf has the monster wow combine people are expecting, he could go as high as #3 to Jets if they believe he could be a massive weapon for Darnold.  The top 8 in front of us is hard to predict before the combine right now, especially with QB questions.  The are 4 teams that could take a QB, which 2 of them should. 

AZ - Do they really take Murray?  Doubt it, but you never know.  And if they did, would they keep or trade Rosen?  Maybe send him to Giants, Fins, or Jags?

Raiders - Talk they could draft a QB and trade Carr somewhere...maybe Giants, Dolphins, or Jags?

Giants - They kind of have to take a QB IMO.  But what it they trade for Carr or Rosen?  

Jags - Will there still be a QB they really believe in at 7 or will they focus on a vet (Carr, Rosen, or a FA) and look to draft a QB next year?

 

How the free agency period and potential trade windows heading into the draft at QB plays out is going to be instrumental in figuring out the top 8.  Jags land a veteran QB, they could easily look to draft offensive weapons instead of a QB for example.  If Raiders stick with Carr, its no lock Gruden goes defense at 4 and could draft someone like Metcalf given he is an offensive guy and just sent off Mack like he didnt really care if he was a Raider or not.   

 

Going to be an interesting combine and FA period for sure.  

8 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

Mark it down. He isn’t going top 8. I risk my internet reputation on it.

 

Im not saying he is, just saying I do not think the odds are 0%.  

[End The Drought]

2 hours ago, blacklabel said:

I don't think many people would disagree that he'd be a nice addition for them. However, the consensus I've picked up on is that mostly everyone on the board here would see it as a reach to take him 9th overall. At that stage of the draft there are still going to be some of these blue chip DL/DE players still on the board that would likely rate higher than Hockenson if they're measuring solely by BPA. I wouldn't mind Hockenson in a trade down scenario, maybe the middle of the round? It's really been far too long (if ever) that they've had a real weapon at tight end. Don't forget about his teammate Noah Fant and also Irv Smith, Jr. from Bama who has a working history with Daboll. Those guys could also be in play in the second round. If they're following the Carolina model for success, I'm sure they're searching for a guy for Allen who can be what Greg Olsen is to Cam Newton. 

Agree that it may be a reach at the time but if he develops into a Gronk or Travis Kelce then it would be considered a steal 

[auburnbillsbacker]

For all of those who want the Bills to trade down then draft him I have this question.  Shouldn't you only trade down if the player you would get later has the same grade as the player you passed on?  If there is a player available at 9 that is better than Hockenson why not draft that player and call it a day.  

[billspro]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

 

Theres absolutely zero chance he is taken before 9.

 

Really 0% chance? Where did you pull that number out of? 

 

He is is the best TE prospect in the NFL draft since I started following the  draft closely in 2004. He is a lock for top 15 with a good shot at the top 10. Your view is outdated. 

[Bangarang]

2 minutes ago, billspro said:

 

Really 0% chance? Where did you pull that number out of? 

 

It’s science. I don’t have time to explain.

[blacklabel]

5 minutes ago, billspro said:

 

Really 0% chance? Where did you pull that number out of? 

 

He is is the best TE prospect in the NFL draft since I started following the  draft closely in 2004. He is a lock for top 15 with a good shot at the top 10. Your view is outdated. 

 

I gotta agree with Bangarang. There are too many stud defensive players in this draft that'll be valued higher than a tight end. That's not a knock on Hockenson, he's good, but teams are gonna value guys like Bosa, Williams, Allen, Burns, Polite, Oliver, Simmons, Gary, White, etc. over Hockenson. And then you'll have Haskins who will go early, maybe both the OTs (Williams, Taylor) go early. Again, Hockenson is a fine player, but the top 10 is jammed up with a lot of guys that'll be valued a bit higher than he will.