Nate Peterman 2017 All-22 Analysis by BR

[Doc]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

Now I'm confused because this article says he threw 49 MPH:

 

http://www.ourlads.com/story/default/Quarterback-Ball-Velocity-at-NFL-Combine-2008-2017/10243/dh/

 

And other articles are evenly split between saying he threw 53 or 49. So now I'm not sure what his velocity was at the combine. Weird.

 

Yeah I thought it was 49 and then revised to 51. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

2 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Yeah I thought it was 49 and then revised to 51. 

 

...prolly a tailwind.............

[Punching Bag]

On 6/28/2018 at 4:08 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

More than anyone else in the position group, Peterman exemplifies Schrödinger’s QB."

 

I'd be willing to have him in place of the cat. I am sure he does not have 9 lives which makes original experiment hard to determine results.  Really if experiment was about "Schrödinger's hamster" would there be as much attention to it?

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 minute ago, Limeaid said:

 

I'd be willing to have him in place of the cat. I am sure he does not have 9 lives which makes original experiment hard to determine results.  Really if experiment was about "Schrödinger's hamster" would there be as much attention to it?

 

....the only thing I know is that it appears that the kid is working hard in minis, OTA's to get better every day.........sure the reports were encouraging but "live ammo" is a different ballgame......a 5th becoming an NFL starter?....Brady's ascension from the 6th to his era GOAT is an anomaly.....IF he could become a reliable backup ala Frank Reich and be a spot starter IF called upon, hard to deny the "successful career" label.....

[NoSaint]

8 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Now I'm confused because this article says he threw 49 MPH:

 

http://www.ourlads.com/story/default/Quarterback-Ball-Velocity-at-NFL-Combine-2008-2017/10243/dh/

 

And other articles are evenly split between saying he threw 53 or 49. So now I'm not sure what his velocity was at the combine. Weird.

 

At some level, because the numbers aren’t uniform, I’d ask how many times you seen him throw an out on a rope, or zip one into a tight window on a seam or....

 

this can be college, camps, not just his 50 some odd drop backs. 

 

You dont need to toss a ton of them but down 5 with 3 minutes left you have to take a risk and wing it in some tight windows and he really hasn’t shown enough zip yet. 

[transplantbillsfan]

14 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

Notice the crickets since you posted this?

He's nowhere to be found lol. Props to you, good post!

 

Who is "he?"

 

Me?

 

BuffaloHokie and Royale already directly addressed this post. Was I required to respond to it, too?

 

Footwork and lower body mechanics can obviously play a role in increasing ball velocity, but it also almost completely disregards the upper body. The more you're forced to rely on your lower body mechanics, the more you'reforced to be a wizard in the pocket to find room to utilize those lower body mechanics to transfer to the upper body and directly into an increase in ball velocity.

 

Brady is a wizard. He knows how to move around.

 

Do you think Peterman looked like he had that kind of pocket presence last year?

 

And if he can't, we gotta go back to making the arm itself stronger. 

 

Yes, mechanics matter, but arm strength clearly does, too.

[Bing Bong]

5 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Footwork and lower body mechanics can obviously play a role in increasing ball velocity, but it also almost completely disregards the upper body. The more you're forced to rely on your lower body mechanics, the more you'reforced to be a wizard in the pocket to find room to utilize those lower body mechanics to transfer to the upper body and directly into an increase in ball velocity.

It's also decision making. regardless of the soft pass he telegraphed it to boot. Not to mention him tossing up those picks. No such things as the "right" throw if those players running free after 5 seconds are a result of the defense blitzing.. begging you to throw that in a collapsing pocket..

 

on top of poor mechanics = picks DBs rarely see in an NFL game.

[Doc]

1 hour ago, PetermanThrew5Picks said:

It's also decision making. regardless of the soft pass he telegraphed it to boot. Not to mention him tossing up those picks. No such things as the "right" throw if those players running free after 5 seconds are a result of the defense blitzing.. begging you to throw that in a collapsing pocket..

 

on top of poor mechanics = picks DBs rarely see in an NFL game.

 

Sorry but DB's see picks like the ones Peterman threw all the time (maybe not all in one half...).  And from elite QBs no less, much less 5th round rookies making their first-ever start. 

[transplantbillsfan]

12 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

This spreadsheet tracks all the ball velocity measurements since 2008:

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_-SienfT3umX0HKxRyQqyXM9BqHrotdcQA6W-V_pDiY/htmlview?usp=drive_web&usp=sheets_home&ths=true&sle=true#

 

Traditionally you want to be 55 MPH or above. Peterman was at 53 MPH. Although I'll point out a few QBs that had under 55 MPH and have never been questioned on arm strength:

 

Dak Prescott - 54

Deshaun Watson - 49

Tyrod Taylor - 50

 

Even if you're a staunch believer in 55 and up, that means you think Peterman needs to increase his ball velocity by 2 MPH to be a starting NFL QB. I don't see why it's so hard to believe that that can be done.

 

I've seen those ball velocity tests at the combine and talk about sheer poppycock.

 

I've watched Taylor throw and I've watched Peterman throw. Taylor is noticeably the stronger passer in terms of ball velocity alone. Not just now. Out of college, too. 

 

I mean whatever you think or thought of Taylor, c'mon man, the guy should undeniably be looked at as having an NFL arm. Definitely not the same for Peterman.

 

Just look at their scouting reports, arm strength stuff only in overview and strengths followed by entire weakness:

 

Taylor--

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/tyrod-taylor?id=2495240

OVERVIEW

He has a quick release and a strong arm

STRENGTHS

Has above average arm strength and flashes the ability to fit the ball into tight windows on short to intermediate routes

WEAKNESSES

Does not possess adequate height and too many of his passes are knocked down at the line. Sloppy footwork prevents him from stepping into throws making him an erratic passer. Locks onto receivers and often telegraphs his throws. Struggles breaking down coverage and makes too many ill-advised throws.

 

Taylor has nothing about arm strength being a weakness and, in fact, his arm is described as "above average" and "strong."

 

Peterman--

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/profiles/nathan-peterman?id=2558191

Strengths

Has enough arm to work field side, intermediate throws. 

Weaknesses

Inconsistent delivery base causes some throws to sail. Has instances where he short strides and is forced to muscle it to his target. Will float some throws on seams and dig routes. Will have to be mindful to drive the ball on pro level to avoid the ballhawks who are lurking at safety. Has to prove he has enough arm to challenge the same tight windows he did in college. Ball handling a little sluggish in wide receiver screens, hitches and most RPOs (run, pass option). Wants to play hero-ball at times. Needs to learn when to air-mail throw and move to next play rather than trying to get too cute with sideline throws. Can improve overall touch.

 

In Peterman's overview and strengths, you get a lot of discussion about anticipation and accuracy and a single line about arm strength that's incredibly vague, but the bulk of his weakness discussion has to do with arm strength.

 

There's a reason for that.

 

I don't think anyone watching Peterman throw would dare say he has more zip in his passes than Tyrod Taylor or Deshaun Watson. 

 

Geez. 

 

I don't think anyone needs ball velocity numbers to know that.

Edited July 1, 2018 by transplantbillsfan

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

On 6/28/2018 at 4:22 PM, jr1 said:

I think he'd be okay in a run-heavy offense

 

No- he even looked like a deer in headlights when running the ball, ether fumbling or diving into concussions 

[GunnerBill]

22 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

 ?? 

 

This is the most likely event.  

 

AJ McCarron is most likely here 1 or 2 if Allen is legit.    

 

If Nate has improved and he can come in if needed and play like he did in the Saints debacle he’ll be fine. 

 

 

No. It is not the most likely. It is possible, sure. But not likely. 

18 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

This spreadsheet tracks all the ball velocity measurements since 2008:

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_-SienfT3umX0HKxRyQqyXM9BqHrotdcQA6W-V_pDiY/htmlview?usp=drive_web&usp=sheets_home&ths=true&sle=true#

 

Traditionally you want to be 55 MPH or above. Peterman was at 53 MPH. Although I'll point out a few QBs that had under 55 MPH and have never been questioned on arm strength:

 

Dak Prescott - 54

Deshaun Watson - 49

Tyrod Taylor - 50

 

Even if you're a staunch believer in 55 and up, that means you think Peterman needs to increase his ball velocity by 2 MPH to be a starting NFL QB. I don't see why it's so hard to believe that that can be done.

 

That spreadsheet is whack.

[dollars 2 donuts]

Some of you guys can hate on this kid all you want, but when the rubber hits the road in September he may be you game one starter.

 

...that's not hyperbole, and I am not saying it's right or wrong, it just is what it is.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

19 hours ago, Doc said:

Yeah I thought it was 49 and then revised to 51. 

 

The Ourlads and perhaps some other numbers that are published, are not the official Combine numbers (which sometimes leak, and are seen to differ).

 

One source I saw said something like 80% of the numbers out "in the wild" with the general public differ.

[transplantbillsfan]

7 hours ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

Some of you guys can hate on this kid all you want, but when the rubber hits the road in September he may be you game one starter.

 

...that's not hyperbole, and I am not saying it's right or wrong, it just is what it is.

 

Yes, we understand he might start week 1.

 

I absolutely acknowledge it's very possible.

 

Personally, I think it'll be around 20-25% chance of it happening, but that's significant enough where I've come to terms with it.

 

But if he does, it's going to be because Peterman won the offseason and looked better than the other guys.

 

But last preseason and the 2015 preseason should be cautionary tales, where Peterman and EJ Manuel were pretty clearly the best QBs in preseason games.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

8 hours ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

Some of you guys can hate on this kid all you want, but when the rubber hits the road in September he may be you game one starter.

 

...that's not hyperbole, and I am not saying it's right or wrong, it just is what it is.

 

 

...starter?.....way too early IMO...if and a BIG IF we come out of this trio with the next Kelly/Reich one-two punch, any objections?.....and if the odd guy out was close enough in camp competition that clubs come calling with a draft pick due to their unforeseen injury, would that be an added benefit if McBeane kept all three on the active 53?...NOT to overplay the cards, but it seems to be a better QB position today than other times post Kelly....

[billsredneck1]

43 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

 

...starter?.....way too early IMO...if and a BIG IF we come out of this trio with the next Kelly/Reich one-two punch, any objections?.....and if the odd guy out was close enough in camp competition that clubs come calling with a draft pick due to their unforeseen injury, would that be an added benefit if McBeane kept all three on the active 53?...NOT to overplay the cards, but it seems to be a better QB position today than other times post Kelly....

....in a nutshell.

[dollars 2 donuts]

5 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

 

...starter?.....way too early IMO...if and a BIG IF we come out of this trio with the next Kelly/Reich one-two punch, any objections?.....and if the odd guy out was close enough in camp competition that clubs come calling with a draft pick due to their unforeseen injury, would that be an added benefit if McBeane kept all three on the active 53?...NOT to overplay the cards, but it seems to be a better QB position today than other times post Kelly....

 

 

I absolutely don't disagree with that, at all.

 

Also, again I said "maybe" partially based upon the guy getting a number of starting reps.  The other part being they seem to love this kid, regardless of what happened during the season last year. 

 

That may change dramatically in training camp, but over the Spring and early Summer his share of respect and look-see from this staff.

Edited July 2, 2018 by dollars 2 donuts

[Lfod]

6 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Yes, we understand he might start week 1.

 

I absolutely acknowledge it's very possible.

 

Personally, I think it'll be around 20-25% chance of it happening, but that's significant enough where I've come to terms with it.

 

But if he does, it's going to be because Peterman won the offseason and looked better than the other guys.

 

But last preseason and the 2015 preseason should be cautionary tales, where Peterman and EJ Manuel were pretty clearly the best QBs in preseason games.

I think as Bills fans we are stuck counting on whatever Daboll can assemble with the tools he is given. I think that is the situation to come to terms with.  

 

The offense has no identity beside Shady Mcoy and maybe Kelvin Benjamin. I'm realistic on the situation. 

 

Peterman hasn't finished an NFL game yet. Josh Allen hasn't played an NFL game yet. AJMcCarron is the only one that's actually ever been in the NFL as a backup.

 

 The NFL isn't an easy place for QBs and rookies do develop differently and most of them won't make it. I don't think the offense jumps out the gate and surprises anyone. I think the odds are that it will be a work in progress hoping to be established eventually. 

 

I think the offense was so out of rythm last season it effected Tyrod and Peterman. Tyrod handled it better because he can outrun pressure and had experience.  

 

I wish every other piece was in place so that I could feel like just a QB short of identity. I don't think it is that simple for the team right now. 

 

I love run first but absolutely limits getting a rythm in the passing game for a squad that didn't find rythm at times. 

 

What we definitely agree on is the best QB should start. Let's just be open that any of these QBs you start might have hurdles and obstacles in the way. 

 

Edited July 2, 2018 by Lfod

[Captain Hindsight]

On 6/30/2018 at 9:57 AM, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...had to been an exhaustive amount of ruminating on his extensive body of work to reach that conclusion......

Heres the thing I don't understand with the fascination with Peterman. He was horrendous last season, not bad, horrendous. He completed like 6 good passes.

 

Meanwhile, Jeff Tuel who also started one game (against an 8-0 team btw) and completed 18-39 passes for 229 yards a touchdown and only 2 INTs is universally regarded as a horrible player

 

Everyone wants to keep making excuses for him. The line didnt block, it was a good pass rushing team. Nope, he just flat out failed. Its such a common tale that 5th round pick that I cant believe its still discussed 

[BigBuff423]

I have NO idea how Peterman's career will turn out and I have equally NO idea if he is actually improving or it's just gym shorts that make the difference. However, for this one thing I'll say: if Chad f-ing Pennington can be a good QB in the NFL, virtually anyone with actual arms that can hold a ball with one hand, CAN be a QB. The difference??

 

Chad Pennington had accuracy and anticipation unlike I've seen since his days. I recall (unfortunately) when he played for Miami - so he was older and his arm was even worse than when he came out of Marshall - and the Bills were playing in that God-awful Toronto series. Ricky Williams did a wheel-route and Chad let the ball go when Ricky was still at the line of scrimmage, and drop that f-ing ball in a bucket to Ricky 30 yards down field. It was an amazing throw, but it was also maddening to watch. He just had this way of seeing 10 steps ahead and getting it to the receiver at just the right time.

 

So, for Peterman, can it be done? Sure can...but even more than his arm strength, what will determine his career trajectory will be anticipation and accuracy because his arm is his arm at this point. Modest improvement is possible, but changing his entire game - I doubt it. 

Edited July 2, 2018 by BigBuff423