Prediction: Nathan Peterman Bills Starting QB Wk. 1 vs. Ravens

[BullBuchanan]

Just now, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

You don't have to tell me about his shortcomings, but you're trying to pump Nathan Peterman up vs. Allen.   Allen will either develop into a franchise QB or he won't, but he's the guy the Bills will build around with Peterman at best being a guy who can backup.  If you see it any other way you're not being realistic. 

 

Not really. I just like what Peterman offers. I can see him becoming a a guy you can win with. I think it's realistic he can succeed. On the other hand, everyone wants to talk about how great Allen is going to be, and I see no evidence that it's even possible based on his college career. He would have to have one of the largest jumps in completion percentage in NFL history in order to become serviceable, and he'd have to stay healthy, which is something else he cant seem to do.

Just now, GoBills808 said:

Correct me if I’m wrong here, but it looks like you’re saying that Peterman is somehow a better prospect than Allen. And that ‘deadly accuracy’ is the trait that separates them. 

You're wrong here.

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, BullBuchanan said:

 

Not really. I just like what Peterman offers. I can see him becoming a a guy you can win with. I think it's realistic he can succeed. On the other hand, everyone wants to talk about how great Allen is going to be, and I see no evidence that it's even possible based on his college career. He would have to have one of the largest jumps in completion percentage in NFL history in order to become serviceable, and he'd have to stay healthy, which is something else he cant seem to do.

 

I haven't seen any tangible on-field evidence of what you see in him. 

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

Not really. I just like what Peterman offers. I can see him becoming a a guy you can win with. I think it's realistic he can succeed. On the other hand, everyone wants to talk about how great Allen is going to be, and I see no evidence that it's even possible based on his college career. He would have to have one of the largest jumps in completion percentage in NFL history in order to become serviceable, and he'd have to stay healthy, which is something else he cant seem to do.

 

What are you basing your evaluation of Peterman and Allen on? Their college stats?

[BullBuchanan]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

What are you basing your evaluation of Peterman and Allen on? Their college stats?

 

The way they play the game, historical success in the NFL and accuracy. I'm not for a second suggesting that Allen doesn't have a cannon for an arm, but I am suggesting that doesn't really matter in the NFL.

Edited July 28, 2018 by BullBuchanan

[GoBills808]

Just now, BullBuchanan said:

 

The way they play the game, historical success in the NFL and accuracy.

'The way they play the game' is pretty vague, and I don't understand what you mean by historical success. As for accuracy, I would be up for a wager that says Allen does better than 49% completion percentage through his first 4 NFL games.

[26CornerBlitz]

2 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

The way they play the game, historical success in the NFL and accuracy.

 

Peterman plays the game like Brian Hoyer a career backup with marginal talent.  He's simply not a guy any team would build around. 

[BillsFan4]

I just read an article on the Bills QB competition, and they had the current betting odds for each QB to start. 

 

https://theathletic.com/445131/2018/07/25/handicapping-bills-quarterbacks-nathan-peterman-josh-allen-and-a-j-mccarron/

 

Quote

Finally, after reading through all that, let’s see what the oddsmakers have to say regarding who will be the Bills starting QB, courtesy of BetDSI (as of the morning of 7/25.)

 

AJ McCarron – 150
Josh Allen +160
Nathan Peterman +820

 

 

You could really clean up if Peterman won the starting job. 

 

 

Hey OP - How confident are you in your prediction...? lol (j/k) 

 

 

Seriously though, I’m not a gambler but those odds do have me just a bit tempted. 

Im just not sure Peterman can pull it off. 

[BullBuchanan]

6 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

'The way they play the game' is pretty vague, and I don't understand what you mean by historical success. As for accuracy, I would be up for a wager that says Allen does better than 49% completion percentage through his first 4 NFL games.

 

I've already said it 30 times across various threads. There is EXTREMELY limited historical evidence of inaccurate strong armed QBs being successful int he NFL. There are 2 "successful" QBs I've found over the last 35 years that raised their compeltion percentage rating by 3 or more points from college (Favre and Moon). The way they play the game - Allen is a traditional gunslinger that whips it down the field while staring down a receiver and hopes for the best (Favre, Cutler). Peterman is more of a gamer that moves around in and out of the pocket and looks for a play. If Peterman succeeds int he NFL I think he looks something like Fitz or Garcia.

 

Most realistically, I think the Bills are drafting another 1rst round QB in 3 years.

Edited July 28, 2018 by BullBuchanan

[Kirby Jackson]

3 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

I've already said it 30 times across various threads. There is EXTREMELY limited historical evidence of inaccurate strong armed QBs being successful int he NFL. There are 2 "successful" QBs I've found over the last 35 years that raised their compeltion percentage rating by 3 or more points from college (Favre and Moon). The way they play the game - Allen is a traditional gunslinger that whips it down the field while staring down a receiver and hopes for the best (Favre, Cutler). Peterman is more of a gamer that moves around in and out of the pocket and looks for a play. If Peterman succeeds int he NFL I think he looks something like Fitz or Garcia.

 

Most realistically, I think the Bills are drafting another 1rst round QB in 3 years.

One last question, if you were to fast forward 5 years and I was to tell you that one of these 3 guys became a “franchise QB” how would you rank them?  

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

I've already said it 30 times across various threads. There is EXTREMELY limited historical evidence of inaccurate strong armed QBs being successful int he NFL. There are 2 "successful" QBs I've found over the last 35 years that raised their compeltion percentage rating by 3 or more points from college (Favre and Moon). The way they play the game - Allen is a traditional gunslinger that whips it down the field while staring down a receiver and hopes for the best (Favre, Cutler). Peterman is more of a gamer that moves around in and out of the pocket and looks for a play.

I have no idea where you get this from...Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Russel Wilson, Matt Stafford all did what you're saying.

[Foxx]

38 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

So basically do what the Bills did with the first two years of Tyrod?

your forgetting last year? no way in hell was/will Tyrod ever be able to run a WCO.

[BullBuchanan]

11 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I have no idea where you get this from...Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Russel Wilson, Matt Stafford all did what you're saying.

 My bad, I left a piece out. of Inaccurate college QBs or those below roughly 60%, that holds true. What also was interesting is that of all the big name franchise QBs over the last 30 years the overwhelming majority had pro completion % that was within 2-3% of their college careers. Favre and Moon were notable examples that went from wildly inaccurate to put up solid accuracy numbers, and even then Moon was below the curve.

Allen has to make up 3 points just to get to serviceable.

Edited July 28, 2018 by BullBuchanan

[Kirby Jackson]

5 minutes ago, Foxx said:

your forgetting last year? no way in hell was/will Tyrod ever be able to run a WCO.

We weren’t talking straight WC. We were talking RPOs, moving pockets, wheel routes, etc... Tyrod is way better fit in Daboll’s offense than Dennison’s. 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, BullBuchanan said:

 My bad, I left a piece out. of Inaccurate college QBs or those below roughly 60%, that holds true. What also was interesting is that of all the big name franchise QBs over the last 30 years the overwhelming majority had pro completion % that was within 2-3% of their college careers. Favre and Moon were notable examples that went from wildly inaccurate to put up solid accuracy numbers.

Allen has to make up 3 points just to get to serviceable.

60% is arbitrary. And besides, you're not including Stafford. Likewise: Brees, Wilson, Ryan, and Stafford are franchise caliber guys who improved their completion percentage over 3 points from college to the pros. 

[Wily Dog]

1 hour ago, BillsFan4 said:

I just read an article on the Bills QB competition, and they had the current betting odds for each QB to start. 

 

https://theathletic.com/445131/2018/07/25/handicapping-bills-quarterbacks-nathan-peterman-josh-allen-and-a-j-mccarron/

 

 

 

You could really clean up if Peterman won the starting job. 

 

 

Hey OP - How confident are you in your prediction...? lol (j/k) 

 

 

Seriously though, I’m not a gambler but those odds do have me just a bit tempted. 

Im just not sure Peterman can pull it off. 

 

I would like to see Peterman prevail just to shut up the continual  so called experts , in their delirious rants against Peterman, but seriously , we are three  days into T.C and there is a lot of ground to be covered  and then there is preseason. I believe that McD will set Allen at least 8 games and go with McCarron/Peterman , whomever prevails  That would give the O'line sometime to jell and give the WR's sometime to become acclimated to the system. The front half of the schedule is brutal , so why risk injury or as Arizona did with Carr , ruining a rookie . Exhale !!!

Edited July 28, 2018 by Wily Dog
wording

[Kirby Jackson]

Joe B on the QBs so far:

 

https://www.wkbw.com/sports/bills/joe-b-7-observations-from-2018-buffalo-bills-training-camp-day-3

[Foxx]

59 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

I'm talking much more about scheme than talent. Tailor the offense to his strengths and hide his weaknesses. Some teams just put a QB in and ru8n whatever they want. The teams that have been successful with the Bulgers, Smiths, Penningtons, Garcias of the world let those guys do what they do best and not try to force them to be Elway.

See: The Bills trying to Make JP Losman a west coast QB.

 

8 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

We weren’t talking straight WC. We were talking RPOs, moving pockets, wheel routes, etc... Tyrod is way better fit in Daboll’s offense than Dennison’s. 

the above was what you responded to. my apologies if i somehow took from that that you were talking about WCOs. i do agree however that Tyrod would be a better fit in Daboll's O. and, not trying to be snide but going from the 30th ranked passing attack, you would almost have to be better in any other offense. 

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, Foxx said:

 

the above was what you responded to. my apologies if i somehow took from that that you were talking about WCOs. i do agree however that Tyrod would be a better fit in Daboll's O. and, not trying to be snide but going from the 30th ranked passing attack, you would almost have to be better in any other offense. 

No problem, it was a terrible fit. Everyone could see that immediately. It’s a coaches job to put players in position to do what they best not to make players run their scheme. That’s the same problem that Rex had. Fortunately, Daboll and McDermott are confident enough to base their system on their talent. 

[Foxx]

14 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

60% is arbitrary. And besides, you're not including Stafford. Likewise: Brees, Wilson, Ryan, and Stafford are franchise caliber guys who improved their completion percentage over 3 points from college to the pros. 

didn't i hear somewhere that he hasn't been playing QB for all that long? wasn't he more of a baseball player before he became really interested/dedicated in/to football? if true, then his curve is somewhat exaggerated.

Edited July 28, 2018 by Foxx

[Rocky Landing]

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

The way they play the game, historical success in the NFL and accuracy. I'm not for a second suggesting that Allen doesn't have a cannon for an arm, but I am suggesting that doesn't really matter in the NFL.

Just to be clear: you're arguing for Peterman?