There will be a lot of crow handed out to media...

[Boca BIlls]

7 hours ago, Kemp said:

 

For all his short-comings Taylor kept Buffalo in possession of the ball. Which QB do you know will be able to do the same? Which has shown he can QB at this level?

 

You can hope for anything and anything is possible, but you can't know it won't be worse.n

Any QB not named Fitzpatrick.

 

Going 3 and out b.c you are afraid to throw the ball is no different than an INT.

Edited June 11, 2018 by Boca BIlls

[John from Riverside]

12 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

It is? 

Given the state of our Oline and QBs I expect to see a lot of 8 man fronts and blitzing early in the season.  Defenses are going to dare our inexperienced QBs to throw. 

Ok

 

but how is that any different then previous years?

 

im not advocating for Allen to start but having qbs that can stand in the pocket and make throws will change the way defenses play them

[RocCityRoller]

honestly, I see a 5-7 win team. A lot of unknowns including the QB position, OL and WRs. RBs are not spring chickens and we are counting on Star L and Murphy to show up and play well, Edmunds and Phillips to excel as a rookies and Lawson to be healthy and play well for the D to improve. Not to mention Nickel CB.

 

I don't think it is doom and gloom, some guys will excel and some will crap out.

 

I think the 6.5 Vegas line and the 4-6 win total for non Bills fans to be fairly accurate. The 2-14 prediction is ridiculous though.

[Fadingpain]

6 minutes ago, RocCityRoller said:

honestly, I see a 5-7 win team. A lot of unknowns including the QB position, OL and WRs. RBs are not spring chickens and we are counting on Star L and Murphy to show up and play well, Edmunds and Phillips to excel as a rookies and Lawson to be healthy and play well for the D to improve. Not to mention Nickel CB.

 

I don't think it is doom and gloom, some guys will excel and some will crap out.

 

I think the 6.5 Vegas line and the 4-6 win total for non Bills fans to be fairly accurate. The 2-14 prediction is ridiculous though.

Good post, devoid of the usual Kool Aid stained viewpoint.

 

For now I have us in that 4-6 window as well. 

 

 

[Jauronimo]

29 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Ok

 

but how is that any different then previous years?

 

im not advocating for Allen to start but having qbs that can stand in the pocket and make throws will change the way defenses play them

How is changing out your starting QB for a rookie and a career backup and turning over your pro bowl guard and center different than every other year?  Well, for starters, that doesn't happen every year.

 

We don't know if we have a QB that can stand in the pocket and make throws yet.  We know we have three guys who will try to stand in the pocket and make throws to one team or another.

Edited June 12, 2018 by Jauronimo

[John from Riverside]

6 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

How is changing out your starting QB for a rookie and a career backup and turning over your pro bowl guard and center different than every other year?  Well, for starters, that doesn't happen every year.

The o line is a wait and see no doubt

 

the Qb positition wasn’t being used correctly anyway

10 hours ago, john wawrow said:

one of my Grover Cleveland golf buddies asked me if I had a prediction yet of the Bills season.

"no," i responded. "way too early."

 

flame away, though.

 

jw

Why should ppl flame a reasonable take?

(sorry for a second I forgot where I was)

[Paulus]

1 hour ago, Fadingpain said:

Good post, devoid of the usual Kool Aid stained viewpoint.

 

For now I have us in that 4-6 window as well. 

 

 

Then put your money where your mouth is, and bet the under. 

[RocCityRoller]

15 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

Good post, devoid of the usual Kool Aid stained viewpoint.

 

For now I have us in that 4-6 window as well. 

 

 

 

Fading Pain, we disagree on almost everything.

 

While this team is flawed, I know they will win 5-6 games on Defense alone.

I would bet $1000 (USA currency) that the Bills win 5 games

Edited June 12, 2018 by RocCityRoller

[RocCityRoller]

14 hours ago, Paulus said:

Then put your money where your mouth is, and bet the under. 

 

edited

Edited June 12, 2018 by RocCityRoller

[Thurman#1]

23 hours ago, The Red King said:

 

Is it?  Points surrendered...the three terrible games bolded.  Keep in mind the defense did this even given the number of 3-and-outs we had.  That was one tired D that could have thrown the towel in, but didn't.

 

vs. Jets: 12, Panthers: 9, Broncos: 16, Falcons: 17, Bengals: 20, Bucs: 27, Raiders: 14, Jets: 34, Saints: 47, Chargers: 54, Chiefs: 10, Pats: 23, Colts: 7, Dolphins: 16, Pats: 37, Dolphins: 16, Jags: 10

 

Aside from that three game collapse, the D gave up an average of 16.7 points a game, despite being stranded out on the field by our ineffective offense.  First Pats game was 9-3 at halftime, second was 13-13.  Those three games aside, you don't think that defense played wonderfully?

 

No, they did not play wonderfully.

 

And when a guy trying to pump up the achievements of the defense has to resort to talking about how well they played in the first half of two games, you can hear the sound of spin, spin at hypersonic speed. I don't care what the scores are at halftime. I care what they are at the end of the game. Whether the other team scores more in the first half or the second doesn't make the defense worse or better.

 

And yeah, though you made a mistake and we scored a bit more than 16.7 points, actually, our points allowed statistic was pretty good in those thirteen games. But scoring is a better measure of the whole team than it is of the defense. Which is why when they say some team is the #1 defense they aren't talking about scoring. They're talking about yards. Scoring is maybe 70% defense. It's also about field position, number of drives faced, and a bunch of other things which offense and STs weigh heavily into. Not to mention that some scores don't come against the defense.

 

You want to measure the defense you look at yards they gave up. Outside of those three games, the Bills defense gave up 341.5 yards per game. Would've been 20th in the league. Decent. Very very far from great or wonderful.

 

And that came in 13 games against offenses that averaged 19.07th ranked in the league, a ranking significantly below average.

Edited June 12, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

 

20 hours ago, ddaryl said:

 

 

Had to look it up.. Word of the day material

 

whinge

(h)winj/

Britishinformal

verb

verb: whinge; 3rd person present: whinges; past tense: whinged; past participle: whinged; gerund or present participle: whingeing; gerund or present participle: whinging

1. 1.

   complain persistently and in a peevish or irritating way.

   "stop whingeing and get on with it!"

noun

noun: whinge; plural noun: whinges

1. 1.

   an act of complaining.

 

 

I've heard it a million times, but I've read a lot of British stuff. I read Uncut, Mojo and the now sadly defunct "The Word," and all the way back to Trouser Press in the '70s. Big fan of the Anglo view of rock music.

 

A lot of British novels and TV shows as well. Even spent a couple of months doing a home-stay there in high school and visiting three other times. Whinge is really common there.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

21 hours ago, john wawrow said:

one of my Grover Cleveland golf buddies asked me if I had a prediction yet of the Bills season.

"no," i responded. "way too early."

 

flame away, though.

 

jw

Grover Cleveland?!  Either you're civic minded, or journalism pay isn't what I thought it was.  Does that count as a 'flame'?  ??

[RocCityRoller]

3 hours ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Grover Cleveland?!  Either you're civic minded, or journalism pay isn't what I thought it was.  Does that count as a 'flame'?  ??

 

No biggie I was just hanging out with James K Polk. He was at Al Bundy's high school hall of fame ceremony for scoring 5 TDs in one game

[Fadingpain]

10 hours ago, RocCityRoller said:

 

Fading Pain, we disagree on almost everything.

 

While this team is flawed, I know they will win 5-6 games on Defense alone.

I would bet $1000 (USA currency) that the Bills win 5 games

Huh?  You said we are a 5-7 win team.  I'm agreeing with that, more or less.

 

I said 4-6 but that could easily be 5-7 as well.  8 wins and up from there is the sort of record I don't see us achieving, at the moment. It's still early.

 

 

14 hours ago, Paulus said:

Then put your money where your mouth is, and bet the under. 

I don't gamble.

 

 

[ricojes]

On 6/9/2018 at 10:39 AM, Hebert19 said:

There will be a lot of crow handed out to media...

But who will eat it...?

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

5 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

I don't gamble.

 

 

You're here at the discussion forums of TBD, aren't you?  Then your sanity begs to differ.  ?

[RocCityRoller]

6 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

Huh?  You said we are a 5-7 win team.  I'm agreeing with that, more or less.

 

I said 4-6 but that could easily be 5-7 as well.  8 wins and up from there is the sort of record I don't see us achieving, at the moment. It's still early.

 

 

I don't gamble.

 

 

 

I'm betting the over on my under LOL!

 

Truth is, I was being an @ss last night and had to edit my response to not bring up gambling or politics where they didn't belong.

 

We are agreed the 5-7 win potential is real. We differ where I don't see under 5 wins as even possible.

 

Nice to agree with you for once. Sorry for being an @ss in the prior post.

[The Red King]

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

No, they did not play wonderfully.

 

And when a guy trying to pump up the achievements of the defense has to resort to talking about how well they played in the first half of two games, you can hear the sound of spin, spin at hypersonic speed. I don't care what the scores are at halftime. I care what they are at the end of the game. Whether the other team scores more in the first half or the second doesn't make the defense worse or better.

 

And yeah, though you made a mistake and we scored a bit more than 16.7 points, actually, our points allowed statistic was pretty good in those thirteen games. But scoring is a better measure of the whole team than it is of the defense. Which is why when they say some team is the #1 defense they aren't talking about scoring. They're talking about yards. Scoring is maybe 70% defense. It's also about field position, number of drives faced, and a bunch of other things which offense and STs weigh heavily into. Not to mention that some scores don't come against the defense.

 

You want to measure the defense you look at yards they gave up. Outside of those three games, the Bills defense gave up 341.5 yards per game. Would've been 20th in the league. Decent. Very very far from great or wonderful.

 

And that came in 13 games against offenses that averaged 19.07th ranked in the league, a ranking significantly below average.

 

...you know another signifigantly below average offense?  Buffalo's.

 

You're right, yards given up is a far more meaningful stat then points.  When time runs out, points are just a guideline.  Buffalo did not lose the playoff game because the Jags scored seven more points then the Bills, the Bills lost because they only gained 263 yards, when the Jags gained...230.  Wait, this can't be right.  We got more yards then the Jags...but somehow lost?  Yet you insist yards gained/surrendered is a far more important stat then points.  What a strange paradox.  We got robbed!  Buffalo won that playoff game!  The NFL screwed up and looked at points, not yards!

 

...oh...no...wait...I suppose points actually do matter a lot more then yards.  ?

 

Buffalo held the Jags to 10 points in their own stadium...the same Jags that put up 45 on Pitt and 20 on NE on the road the following two weeks.  I'd call that wonderful.

Edited June 12, 2018 by The Red King

[HOUSE]

Unlike Google, the media is not your friend

[Paulus]

2 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

I don't gamble.

[Thurman#1]

7 hours ago, The Red King said:

 

...you know another signifigantly below average offense?  Buffalo's.

 

You're right, yards given up is a far more meaningful stat then points.  When time runs out, points are just a guideline.  Buffalo did not lose the playoff game because the Jags scored seven more points then the Bills, the Bills lost because they only gained 263 yards, when the Jags gained...230.  Wait, this can't be right.  We got more yards then the Jags...but somehow lost?  Yet you insist yards gained/surrendered is a far more important stat then points.  What a strange paradox.  We got robbed!  Buffalo won that playoff game!  The NFL screwed up and looked at points, not yards!

 

...oh...no...wait...I suppose points actually do matter a lot more then yards.  ?

 

Buffalo held the Jags to 10 points in their own stadium...the same Jags that put up 45 on Pitt and 20 on NE on the road the following two weeks.  I'd call that wonderful.

 

 

 

Yup, points matter way more than yards. But to repeat yet again the obvious, points given up matter a lot but they refer back to the whole team. Not just the defense. The whole team. Whereas yards given up do a great job of isolating the defense as the responsible party. How many points are charged against the defense if Tyrod throws an INT and it's run back for a TD? Or if Tyrod ... um ... does his Tyrod thing and throws INTs at a much lower rate than other QBs, who gets the credit for that if you only look at points given up? Yup, great job, Tyrod ... uh, I mean great job defense.

 

So call it wonderful all you want, but you're calling the whole team wonderful, not just the defense. The offense and STs share a lot of the credit if they consistently put the other team in bad field position by not turning the ball over, etc.

 

The stat that isolates the defense tells the real story. Yards given up. Which again is that looking at those 13 games alone the defense gave up yards at a rate that would have put them at 20th in the league. That of course meant that the offense was given relatively poor field position and started drives at a disadvantage.

 

Edited June 13, 2018 by Thurman#1

[The Red King]

17 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Yup, points matter way more than yards. But to repeat yet again the obvious, points given up matter a lot but they refer back to the whole team. Not just the defense. The whole team. Whereas yards given up do a great job of isolating the defense as the responsible party. How many points are charged against the defense if Tyrod throws an INT and it's run back for a TD? Or if Tyrod ... um ... does his Tyrod thing and throws INTs at a much lower rate than other QBs, who gets the credit for that if you only look at points given up? Yup, great job, Tyrod ... uh, I mean great job defense.

 

So call it wonderful all you want, but you're calling the whole team wonderful, not just the defense. The offense and STs share a lot of the credit if they consistently put the other team in bad field position by not turning the ball over, etc.

 

The stat that isolates the defense tells the real story. Yards given up. Which again is that looking at those 13 games alone the defense gave up yards at a rate that would have put them at 20th in the league. That of course meant that the offense was given relatively poor field position and started drives at a disadvantage.

 

 

We're not gonna see eye to eye here.  We have drastically different views on bend-but-don't-break defenses.  The real story is, the defense played well enough most games to give the offense a chance to win.  They went into Jacksonville and told the offense, "You put 10 points up, all game, and we're going to OT.  Put up 11...we'll win."  I'd take that in a heartbeat.  Yards per game is not a statistic in a bubble as you claim.  How often was the Buffalo D out there?  How many three and outs by the Buffalo O?  Buffalo's poor offensive play contributed to defensive fatigue, and as such directly impacted yards surrendered.  Sorry, there is no one statistic that tells the whole story, isolated from any other factor.  The Bills' defense regularly kept the team in the game far later then it had any right to.  I see that as having played wonderfully, given how woeful the offense was.  You obviously disagree, but there is no isolated statistic that will prove either of us right, so we'll each have to hold to our opinion on the matter.

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, The Red King said:

 

We're not gonna see eye to eye here.  We have drastically different views on bend-but-don't-break defenses.  The real story is, the defense played well enough most games to give the offense a chance to win.  They went into Jacksonville and told the offense, "You put 10 points up, all game, and we're going to OT.  Put up 11...we'll win."  I'd take that in a heartbeat.  Yards per game is not a statistic in a bubble as you claim.  How often was the Buffalo D out there?  How many three and outs by the Buffalo O?  Buffalo's poor offensive play contributed to defensive fatigue, and as such directly impacted yards surrendered.  Sorry, there is no one statistic that tells the whole story, isolated from any other factor.  The Bills' defense regularly kept the team in the game far later then it had any right to.  I see that as having played wonderfully, given how woeful the offense was.  You obviously disagree, but there is no isolated statistic that will prove either of us right, so we'll each have to hold to our opinion on the matter.

 

 

Is that how it works? You take one game that fits your story and pretend that's how it all looked? OK, fine. Two can play at that. The Saints came into our home. And put up 482 yards on our defense and ran up a score so ridiculously out of reach, 47 points, that the offense didn't have the slightest chance of getting us in the game, much less winning. That shows as much about the season as did your one game example.

 

As seems usual for you, you throw up yet another straw man argument. Just as I didn't claim yards was the "most important" as you said I did, I also didn't claim it's a "statistic in a bubble." It's not. But yeah, it absolutely separates what the defense is responsible for a ton better than points does. If the defense stops teams quick, the yards stay down. If they don't stop teams, the yards go up. Opponents can't run plays against our offense or our STs and have them affect the "yards allowed" stat. Only plays against the defense count, unlike the "Points allowed" stat where the defense looks terrible by allowing seven points if Tyrod throws a pick-six or by allowing three points if Shady fumbles and the ball is recovered on the Bills seven and the defense throws 'em back to the 20 and a field goal is kicked. Yards on the other hand are either allowed or not allowed by the defense and the defense alone. So yeah, yards do a vastly better job of isolating the units than points does.

 

And sure Buffalo's bad offense had a bad effect on the defense at times. Know what also had a bad effect on the defense? Their inability to get off the field. The defense ranked 29th in the league last year in plays per drive. They couldn't get off the field.

 

"How often was the Buffalo D out there," you ask? Don't ask unless you want someone to tell you. The Buffalo D was out there 175 times. Slightly below the league average of 179 times. Glad I could help you out with that. And in those 175 drives they allowed 1.99 points per drive, (23rd in the league) and 32.47 yards per drive (26th in the league). 

 

Oh, and while the offense was woeful in some ways, they managed games pretty well. That's why the defense faced less drives than average. The offense had few turnovers (8th-fewest), they burnt up clock with runs, and they ran more plays per drive than average (12th), resting the defense. 

 

And while our offense wasn't good ... wait for it ... that doesn't prove our defense was "great" and "wonderful." It wasn't. It was slightly below average, 20th, even if you throw out it's worst three games. Which you shouldn't do, by the way. 

 

This isn't a matter at which one of us will be proved right. The results are in. They weren't even good, much less wonderful. They also weren't as bad as many wanted to say. But "wonderful" and "great" they weren't. They just weren't. Not even if you throw out their worst three games - which by the way would make nearly any unit, defense or offense, look pretty good if you then compare them to the rest of the teams without throwing out their three worst games.

 

Calling them wonderful or great is laughable. I'm sure they'd agree. Ask anyone on that defense or coaching staff if the Bills D played "wonderfully" last year.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 13, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Delete This Account]

On 6/12/2018 at 11:56 AM, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Grover Cleveland?!  Either you're civic minded, or journalism pay isn't what I thought it was.  Does that count as a 'flame'?  ??

 

Hah.

Nope,  it's the closest to home and a nice easy 3-hour walk, especially when you get there first thing in the morning. i've gotten  to know the guys who tee off  first thing, and it's become both a weekly social and workout thing for me.

 

jw