RD1, Pick 7: Josh Allen QB - Wyoming

[Lurker]

41 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

Most fans and “experts” who were critical on social media really don’t know much about football.  

 

I don't know, Vic saying that is like the pot calling the kettle black.     It doesn't take a PhD to critique football player skill sets, coaching decisions or journalism for that matter.   

 

Watching and attending games for decades provides a pretty good education in what's effective, what isn't and how mistakes are repeated over and over by generations of 'professional' front office and coaching staff personnel--who supposedly do know much about football.   

 

There are plenty of knowledgeable non-professionals who can and do have valid points on Allen.    To shovel those negative opinions into the "don't know much about football" dustbin is downright insulting...

 

 

 

 

[Success]

No one knows a small fraction of what the actual scouting community knows.  We watch YouTube and read mocks for a few months and think we have a handle on it, but scouts breathe this stuff every day, all year.

[TheFunPolice]

Everyone says they want the front office to identify a guy and go get him, so they did.

 

Now let's see if it works

[Wily Dog]

I have noticed that our "experts " from  TBD have been strangely silent since the draft. They were down on Allen and maybe thats the reason for it.

[BringBackOrton]

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think if I had to listen to Doug Whaley on TV for 10 years I would do something self-destructive, highly irresponsible, or throw the TV out the window.  Or all 3.

 

Seriously, the undiscussed "elephant in the room" is all the resources that teams put into scouting players and building their draft board.  I would be surprised if any of these media draft pundits have 1/10 the resources that an NFL team puts into it - why should they?  They're for entertainment, it's a GMs bread-and-butter.  So even if a guy is knowledgeable, has an eye for talent, and puts some serious daily effort into watching available games and maybe gets coaches film - it's still only a fraction of the boots-on-the-floor and time and effort a pro team has, and the results reflect that.  So no, I don't think he'd be substantially better, but there's a reason for that.

Well then the major knock that "Mayock never worked for a team's FO!"  is kinda silly then, isn't it?

 

Seeing as we never get a teams board, it's impossible to do a real comparison anyway.  The real elephant in the room is that Darnold may have been the #1 player on 30 teams' draft boards, and if he busts, only one team will get grief for it.  

Edited April 30, 2018 by jmc12290

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, jmc12290 said:

Well then the major knock that "Mayock never worked for a team's FO!"  is kinda silly then, isn't it?

 

Since that's not my knock, that's a straw man to me.  I don't think you have to have worked for an NFL FO to know something about football or to evaluate a guy.

5 minutes ago, Wily Dog said:

I have noticed that our "experts " from  TBD have been strangely silent since the draft. They were down on Allen and maybe thats the reason for it.

 

 "Whatchutalkinabout, Dog?"  Plenty of folks here opining.  Most of the folks I regard as experts right here to be found.

[Lurker]

25 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Do they?  I would love to see an objective assessment of their percentage. 

 

Here's a report card from last year:    https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2017/5/1/15493170/grading-the-2017-nfl-mock-drafts-judgment-day-for-kiper-mcshay-mayock

[jrober38]

On 4/28/2018 at 10:05 PM, Need4speed12000 said:

Well I would love to see you tell Brett Favre  that who incidentally only had a 52% pass completion in college......

People keep knocking this guy for his accuracy during college. He didn’t have the best receivers in the world on his team so cut him some slack. If you want to compare college stats, let me just point you to Brett Favre who had a measly 52% pass completion during his college years and look what he did in the nfl. Don’t write this kid off just yet. Sure he needs some work and experience in the nfl. But I guarantee this kid will blossom into something really special. Something we have been waiting for since Kelly retired.....

 

If you have one guy to "point to" over the past 25 years your argument doesn't make any sense. 

 

Josh Allen was a mediocre college player. The odds of him becoming an elite NFL QB are not good. 

[Wily Dog]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Since that's not my knock, that's a straw man to me.  I don't think you have to have worked for an NFL FO to know something about football or to evaluate a guy.

 

 "Whatchutalkinabout, Dog?"  Plenty of folks here opining.  Most of the folks I regard as experts right here to be found.

Not talking about you Hapless, you are always on . 

[BuffaloRebound]

I have no idea if Allen was the right pick, but Beane and McDermott know a lot more about football than I ever will.  They broke a 17 year playoff drought in their 1st year in Buffalo.  I don’t consider myself a mindless sheep, but they certainly deserve the benefit of the doubt more than any previous Bills regime this century.  

[jrober38]

The bust rate for 1st round QBs is far to high to ask people to shut up and "let the pros do their jobs". 

[BringBackOrton]

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Since that's not my knock, that's a straw man to me.  I don't think you have to have worked for an NFL FO to know something about football or to evaluate a guy.

 

 "Whatchutalkinabout, Dog?"  Plenty of folks here opining.  Most of the folks I regard as experts right here to be found.

Sorry, I added.

 

 

Seeing as we never get a teams board, it's impossible to do a real comparison anyway.  The real elephant in the room is that Darnold may have been the #1 player on 30 teams' draft boards, and if he busts, only one team will get grief for it.  

[Paulus]

ARRON MAYBIN < ORAKPO

WHITNER< NGATA

 

I mean, Bills' fans have kind of been right with regards to who the Bills should draft... 

 

Yes, this is a different FO, but it is still the same team. Perhaps, fans and "experts" are sometimes on to something. Not that this is the case here, but it might just become another example of the BIlls FO thinking they are smarter than everyone else and again being wrong. 

[Boatdrinks]

4 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

If you have one guy to "point to" over the past 25 years your argument doesn't make any sense. 

 

Josh Allen was a mediocre college player. The odds of him becoming an elite NFL QB are not good. 

I'll agree, with the qualification that the odds of any of these QBs that get drafted achieving that status are not good. 42 first round QBs from 2000 thru 2017, and just 4 of them played in a SuperBowl. After evaluating all these QBs , why do you believe the Bills ( and reportedly AZ) liked Allen more than Rosen ? It doesn't seem that NFL personnel execs value/ think of these draft picks in the same way fans do. 

[BillsFan2313]

23 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

If you have one guy to "point to" over the past 25 years your argument doesn't make any sense. 

 

Josh Allen was a mediocre college player. The odds of him becoming an elite NFL QB are not good. 

 

Matt Stafford was 57.1% in his college career, at Georgia, with elite talent around him. Oh yeah, I forgot, he was barely over 60% for 1 year, so we can't compare them. Guaranteed Josh Allen doesn't throw for at least 60% if he returned to start for a 3rd year? 

 

Matt Ryans college numbers were pretty mediocre, excluding maybe 1 year, in which he even threw 19 ints and had a completion % less than 60

Edited April 30, 2018 by BillsFan2313

[Wily Dog]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

I have no idea if Allen was the right pick, but Beane and McDermott know a lot more about football than I ever will.  They broke a 17 year playoff drought in their 1st year in Buffalo.  I don’t consider myself a mindless sheep, but they certainly deserve the benefit of the doubt more than any previous Bills regime this century.  

I totally agree !!! Opinions are like ##sholes, everybody has one. But the Negatively gets me.

[hondo in seattle]

Griping and Monday morning quarterbacking are part of being a fan.   In fact, it's part of the fun.  

 

But I do object to the arrogance of some fans who are convinced they are smarter than Brandon Bean and his entire staff of scouts.

 

Collectively our Bills scouts have spent thousands of hours evaluating this draft class, interviewing players; talking to coaches, family and friends; studying tape; and so on.  

 

And yet Biff from Cheektowaga - who has no training as scout, didn't attend the combine, has never seen any of these players in person, and didn't spend millions of dollars on due diligence grandiosely pronounces Beane an incompetent idiot for choosing X.    It can be a little hard to swallow sometimes. 

 

These kinds of comments are offensive to the professionals.  Think about your own profession and how ridiculous it can be to have people who don't know crap give you advice or pronounce judgment in your area of expertise.  

 

Beane is much smarter about football than Biff, whatever pretensions Biff may have.  The question is whether Beane is smarter than the other NFL GMs.  We'll be able to intelligently judge that over time by seeing what kind of roster he builds.  

 

 

 

 

Edited April 30, 2018 by hondo in seattle

[greeneblitz]

10 minutes ago, Paulus said:

ARRON MAYBIN < ORAKPO

WHITNER< NGATA

 

I mean, Bills' fans have kind of been right with regards to who the Bills should draft... 

 

Yes, this is a different FO, but it is still the same team. Perhaps, fans and "experts" are sometimes on to something. Not that this is the case here, but it might just become another example of the BIlls FO thinking they are smarter than everyone else and again being wrong. 

This is dumb, your glossing over "Yes, this is a different FO", that's all that matters, this Front office and Coaching staff have earned the benefit of the doubt, they've made nothing but great moves that ended the drought in one season, did a complete turnover of the roster and fixed the salary cap.

[Wily Dog]

4 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

Griping and Monday morning quarterbacking are part of being a fan.   In fact, it's part of the fun.  

 

But I do object to the arrogance of some fans who are convinced they are smarter than Brandon Bean and his entire staff of scouts.

 

Collectively our Bills scouts have spent thousands of hours evaluating this draft class, interviewing players; talking to coaches, family and friends; studying tape; and so on.  

 

And yet Biff from Cheektowaga - who has no training as scout, didn't attend the combine, has never seen any of these players in person, and didn't spend millions of dollars on due diligence grandiosely pronounces Beane an incompetent idiot for choosing X.    It can be a little hard to swallow sometimes. 

 

These kinds of comments are offensive to the professionals.  Think about your own profession and how ridiculous it can be to have people who don't know crap give you advice or pronounce judgment in your area of expertise.  

 

Beane is much smarter about football than Biff, whatever pretensions Biff may have.  The question is whether Beane is smarter than the other NFL GMs.  We'll be able to intelligently judge that over time by seeing what kind of roster he builds.  

 

 

 

 

 

3 minutes ago, greeneblitz said:

This is dumb, your glossing over "Yes, this is a different FO", that's all that matters, this Front office and Coaching staff have earned the benefit of the doubt, they've made nothing but great moves that ended the drought in one season, did a complete turnover of the roster and fixed the salary cap.

Two great posts, Couldn't agree more.

[Boatdrinks]

29 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

The bust rate for 1st round QBs is far to high to ask people to shut up and "let the pros do their jobs". 

What does that tell you ? It's an inexact science that even the pros don't get right a large percentage of the time, because there are no absolutes. It's impossible to predict  because the game at that level is so different. And the human factor: guys flame out for all sorts of reasons that are not predictable because we can't see the future. Yes, it's silly to say a paid pro in the NFL is " dumb". Those folks should be called out, because that's an ignorant take. Fans may not agree with a lot of these picks, but pretending you can do a lot better is asinine because virtually no one in the NFL does. You would own the NFL if you could do better by a statistically significant margin over a period of time. 

Edited April 30, 2018 by Boatdrinks