maryland-bills-fan Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 Extra risk with Allen because he did not play against good opponents. By the way, does anybody else wonder why after he played 2 years at a community college ONLY TWO 4 YEAR COLLEGES EVEN ANSWERED HIS INQUIRERS FOR A SCHOLARSHIP??? 639 schools turned him down. One offered a scholarship. One lost interest when he went on a visit to the other school. Are they all so much dumber than the posters here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radar Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 1 minute ago, HappyDays said: It isn't hard to educate yourself these days. There is a very active scouting community online. Read this whole thread and watch the clips: Crist is detailed and specific on the positives and negatives on Allen's tape. And he comes away from it with the same conclusion many of us have. Allen is a raw physical talent with horrible touch, ball placement, and footwork. He also makes poor decisions and has trouble reading the field. His physical talent alone might make him worth a late day 2 pick but he has no business in the top 5, or the 1st round for that matter. Of course the anti Allen clan will jump on this as gospel. The others have their own gospel that Allen should be #1. After all the bull has been thrown around we'll know tomorrow night won't we? Oh, that's right. I forgot that's when the bull becomes that's a terrible pick and we got a great pick there. Lucky he was there. Why didn't we trade up fire Beane!!!! Boy our GM is a genius!!!! Love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbbillsfan Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 While what Palmer says has truth, there are other guys in NFL draft history who had these factors affecting there completion percentage...and yet the good ones still completed passes at a higher clip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo716 Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 19 minutes ago, Boyst62 said: I prefer the adage that no QB improves their completion percentage in the pros from college Drew Brees did but I’m not sure about many others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddaryl Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 save this article because if we do end up with Allen its the only hope we can hang our hats on till he sees the field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaattMaann Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 41 minutes ago, Da webster guy said: This morning on WGR they had Jordan Palmer on. Despite swearing to God I would never listen to one more word about the stupid draft until it's over, I found his take on Josh Allen very interesting. He said keep in mind that completion percentage is very different between certain players when you consider the offenses they played in. For example Baker Mayfield threw to wide open receivers on more than half his throws last year while Josh Allen's film showed his receivers had very little separation. He also said you should add 6 to 10 points on to the completion percentage of a quarterback who runs the type of offense that Allen did when compared to an offense like Mayfield's. His logic is that there are a lot of very high completion plays such as bubble screens, smokes, quick slants, even shovel passes that many other offenses run but Allen's didn't. These are easy throws that inflate stats. He went on to say that despite Josh Allen playing in junior college three years ago, the guy is mature and has a magnetic personality, great teammate and he was very high on him being successful in the NFL. He compared his personality to Fitzy. If we do end up taking the kid, I suggest you go play the clip of the interview on the GR website, it will keep you from walking into the lake. There is plenty of tape out there of Josh Allen literally missing screen passes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roundybout Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 They're NOT buffalo wings, Josh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heitz Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 41 minutes ago, Mojo44 said: This is pretty much Mayock’s take on Allen which is why he has him so highly rated despite his college stats. Phil Simms and Jim Miller too (per yesterday's Sirius interview) - Allen is the top guy for both of them. Simms said that ALL he watches is QB's too, fwiw... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY315 Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 44 minutes ago, Da webster guy said: His logic is that there are a lot of very high completion plays such as bubble screens, smokes, quick slants, even shovel passes that many other offenses run but Allen's didn't. These are easy throws that inflate stats 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 39 minutes ago, Da webster guy said: Baker Mayfield threw to wide open receivers on more than half his throws last year This is why I've never gotten comfortable with this kid. IMO, the Big 12 spread offenses are just not good preparation for the NFL. It seem's like every receiver is always open, like they're playing against air. Fast break football is entertaining but the NFL is another animal. That said, the Big Sky is not good breeding ground for the NFL either. The PAC 12, on the other hand, is the proving ground for NFL QBs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 38 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said: I have watched and broke down every single play from Allen’s career at Wyoming Palmer saying he doenst throw screens is a little bias. By my account he threw 49 passes out of 270 at or behind the line of scrimmage that is 18% and higher than Lamar Jackson at 15% Just curious, what were the percentages for the other top 3 QBs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdrought Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 I don't watch much tape, so this thread prompted me to look for "bad tape" of Allen (and I did not look all that far, so feel free to show me other examples) and I found this game against Iowa. The stat line seemed to indicate that this would be bad tape, but after watching this I actually like Allen more. He's doing a lot here with absolutely no protection and no separation by his receivers. I'm not saying he's going to be great, but this tape which at first I thought would be bad, showed me a QB who (obviously has rough edges) knows how to make things happen. (those interceptions were both rough though.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddaryl Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 (edited) 12 minutes ago, BillsEnthusiast said: They're NOT buffalo wings, Josh.... they are until you become a Buffalonian. Then they are just Wings, but for the rest of the world they need to add the Buffalo, its out biggest claim to fame in the modern age 3 minutes ago, whatdrought said: I don't watch much tape, so this thread prompted me to look for "bad tape" of Allen (and I did not look all that far, so feel free to show me other examples) and I found this game against Iowa. The stat line seemed to indicate that this would be bad tape, but after watching this I actually like Allen more. He's doing a lot here with absolutely no protection and no separation by his receivers. I'm not saying he's going to be great, but this tape which at first I thought would be bad, showed me a QB who (obviously has rough edges) knows how to make things happen. (those interceptions were both rough though.) that is the rub he needs time to learn the game becuase he had little time ot go through all the reads etc.. so he would be best going to the Giants behind Eli IMO. He needs a year or 2 Buffalo does not have that luxury IMO Edited April 25, 2018 by ddaryl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Who Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 5 minutes ago, ddaryl said: He needs a year or 2 Buffalo does not have that luxury IMO Why can't he sit behind McCarron for a year? We're not going to the Super Bowl next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddaryl Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 Just now, Dr. Who said: Why can't he sit behind McCarron for a year? We're not going to the Super Bowl next year. I dont think Buffalo wants a project QB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Who Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, ddaryl said: I dont think Buffalo wants a project QB Then you only want Rosen or Mayfield. Everyone else needs time to develop. I think that's very short-sighted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCOrange Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 I like Allen personally, but regarding the idea that you need to add 6-10% to Allen's completion percentage due to how few screens, etc. he threw, if you take Allen's splits and normalize it based on the target distribution that Josh Rosen had (who threw it short more often than anyone else), it only bumps Allen's completion percentage up to 58.3%. Normalizing everyone's numbers based on Rosen's pass distribution, you get (this is based on their career numbers rather than just this past year): Baker: 70.5% Darnold: 65.9% Rosen: 60.9% Lamar: 58.7% Allen: 58.3% Unrelated, I looked at the splits between passers when kept clean versus when pressured and then normalized their 2017 numbers as if they were pressured as little as Rudolph was (who was protected better than any of the other top 6 QBs) and doing so gave me these numbers: Baker: 71.1% Rudolph: 65.1% Darnold: 64.2% Rosen: 63.5% Lamar: 60.8% Allen: 60.6% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddaryl Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Dr. Who said: Then you only want Rosen or Mayfield. Everyone else needs time to develop. I think that's very short-sighted. Yeah different levels of development I view Allen as a 2 year project and Darnold Mayfield Rosen ready in 1 year or less Rudolph may be ready early, Jackson will need a year or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 13 minutes ago, whatdrought said: I don't watch much tape, so this thread prompted me to look for "bad tape" of Allen (and I did not look all that far, so feel free to show me other examples) and I found this game against Iowa. The stat line seemed to indicate that this would be bad tape, but after watching this I actually like Allen more. He's doing a lot here with absolutely no protection and no separation by his receivers. I'm not saying he's going to be great, but this tape which at first I thought would be bad, showed me a QB who (obviously has rough edges) knows how to make things happen. (those interceptions were both rough though.) Man, that was painful to watch. I just don't see the "arm talent" I keep hearing about. I don't see a live arm, just a strong one on a so-so athlete... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCOrange Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 23 minutes ago, CNY315 said: I've seen this posted a few times, but it's very strange because Barnwell posted an article roughly a week ago that laid out all the numbers and found that while Allen did indeed attempt 30.7% of his passes under 5 yards, that was significantly lower than Darnold, Baker, or Rosen, who were all between 38-40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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