Draft thoughts of an Older Fan

[OldTimer1960]

Some thoughts about the draft and our opinions of it.

 

For 35+ years I have consumed as much draft information as I can find/absorb.  This post is intended to ameliorate a bit the absolute black and white if you don’t agree with me you’re a moron posts.  

 

It it is great that folks have passion about the team’s fortunes and strong opinions about prospects and what the Bills should do.  However, any of us who thinks that if our team doesn’t do what is “clearly obvious “ to us, then they are incompetent - we are fools.  Sure, maybe our opinion turns out to be right, however that doesn’t mean that the opinion was formed with the most complete information available.  Across a wide swath of posters, someone’s opinion formed on incomplete information is bound to be right sometimes- doesn’t make those who disagreed morons.

 

I enjoy reading the comments of those who really do put significant time into watching game videos of the prospects.  Still, “the tape that doesn’t lie” may be a big part of evaluations, but there are other significant factors that we don’t have good access to:

- we can’t interview the players to understand their personality, get a feel for how they learn, how dedicated they are

- some here can generally speculate about how a prospect processes what he sees and how quick his decisions are, but we don’t have the benefit of talking to college coaches who actually know what the player was asked to do and how he did it

- we don’t have access to the background checks that NFL evaluators have.  A prospect might be able to fool in interviews, but teams can talk with teammates, coaches, support personnel from college and HS to get a better picture of how a guy works, treats teammates/others, reacts to adversity, etc.

- we cannot really know how much room for improvement physically or mentally any of these prospects have.  We can speculate about what they have/have not done, but if a prospect hasn’t been asked to do something in his college scheme, that doesn’t mean that they can’t do it, but I bet that their college coaches would have some good insights.

- we don’t truly know how competition levels really highlight or downplay a prospect.

- how does the talent that a prospect plays with affect his performance?

 

For those who rail against a given prospect in round x because draft pundits say he is a round x+1 prospect, get some perspective.  What is a “reach”?  There is so much that goes into a”grade” for a prospect:  

- how do his skill match what you need him to do?

- do his preparation and instincts overcome some physical limitations?

- has he reached his physical peak or does he have room to add strength, improve skills

- does he fit the culture/is he more professional in his approach than maybe more physically talented prospects?

- what is the likelihood he will be unavailable due to off field problem?

- what is his injury history and can he overcome that?

 

Surely we can all see how complicated and uncertain these evaluations are.  Try to keep in perspective that the pro evaluators have access to information that we don’t.  That doesn’t mean that your opinion might not be right in the long run, but that your opinion is probably based on less than full information.

 

Have fun with the speculation and enjoy the debate, but if the Bills pick players you don’t agree with, taken a balanced approach to your criticism.  None of us know how these guys will pan out.

 

[Epstein's Mother]

Thank you for this.

[Seanbillsfan2206]

6 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Some thoughts about the draft and our opinions of it.

 

For 35+ years I have consumed as much draft information as I can find/absorb.  This post is intended to ameliorate a bit the absolute black and white if you don’t agree with me you’re a moron posts.  

 

It it is great that folks have passion about the team’s fortunes and strong opinions about prospects and what the Bills should do.  However, any of us who thinks that if our team doesn’t do what is “clearly obvious “ to us, then they are incompetent - we are fools.  Sure, maybe our opinion turns out to be right, however that doesn’t mean that the opinion was formed with the most complete information available.  Across a wide swath of posters, someone’s opinion formed on incomplete information is bound to be right sometimes- doesn’t make those who disagreed morons.

 

I enjoy reading the comments of those who really do put significant time into watching game videos of the prospects.  Still, “the tape that doesn’t lie” may be a big part of evaluations, but there are other significant factors that we don’t have good access to:

- we can’t interview the players to understand their personality, get a feel for how they learn, how dedicated they are

- some here can generally speculate about how a prospect processes what he sees and how quick his decisions are, but we don’t have the benefit of talking to college coaches who actually know what the player was asked to do and how he did it

- we don’t have access to the background checks that NFL evaluators have.  A prospect might be able to fool in interviews, but teams can talk with teammates, coaches, support personnel from college and HS to get a better picture of how a guy works, treats teammates/others, reacts to adversity, etc.

- we cannot really know how much room for improvement physically or mentally any of these prospects have.  We can speculate about what they have/have not done, but if a prospect hasn’t been asked to do something in his college scheme, that doesn’t mean that they can’t do it, but I bet that their college coaches would have some good insights.

- we don’t truly know how competition levels really highlight or downplay a prospect.

- how does the talent that a prospect plays with affect his performance?

 

For those who rail against a given prospect in round x because draft pundits say he is a round x+1 prospect, get some perspective.  What is a “reach”?  There is so much that goes into a”grade” for a prospect:  

- how do his skill match what you need him to do?

- do his preparation and instincts overcome some physical limitations?

- has he reached his physical peak or does he have room to add strength, improve skills

- does he fit the culture/is he more professional in his approach than maybe more physically talented prospects?

- what is the likelihood he will be unavailable due to off field problem?

- what is his injury history and can he overcome that?

 

Surely we can all see how complicated and uncertain these evaluations are.  Try to keep in perspective that the pro evaluators have access to information that we don’t.  That doesn’t mean that your opinion might not be right in the long run, but that your opinion is probably based on less than full information.

 

Have fun with the speculation and enjoy the debate, but if the Bills pick players you don’t agree with, taken a balanced approach to your criticism.  None of us know how these guys will pan out.

 

I agree. But if someone thinks that Mason Rudolph should be picked in the top 10 then they either:

 

A. Aren’t really that bright

B. Possibly a relative of Rudolph 

C. An alien

[OldTimer1960]

Just now, Seanbillsfan2206 said:

I agree. But if someone thinks that Mason Rudolph should be picked in the top 10 then they either:

 

A. Aren’t really that bright

B. Possibly a relative of Rudolph 

C. An alien

That may be true, but the team’s job is to maximize the value of the picks they have for the purpose of fielding the best team that they can.  It isn’t beyond debate that selecting Rudolph at 12 and still having 22, 53, 56, 65, 96 and all of next year’s picks won’t be a better option than trading, say 12, 22, 53 and a top 10 pick next year for one of the higher rated QB prospects.

[Seanbillsfan2206]

1 minute ago, OldTimer1960 said:

That may be true, but the team’s job is to maximize the value of the picks they have for the purpose of fielding the best team that they can.  It isn’t beyond debate that selecting Rudolph at 12 and still having 22, 53, 56, 65, 96 and all of next year’s picks won’t be a better option than trading, say 12, 22, 53 and a top 10 pick next year for one of the higher rated QB prospects.

Beane has stated that he won’t reach. If we’re staying put at 12 then there isn’t the slightest chance in hell we’ll take Rudolph there. Maybe at 53..

[Sky Diver]

8 minutes ago, Seanbillsfan2206 said:

I agree. But if someone thinks that Mason Rudolph should be picked in the top 10 then they either:

 

A. Aren’t really that bright

B. Possibly a relative of Rudolph 

C. An alien

 

D. His agent

[Seanbillsfan2206]

Just now, Sky Diver said:

 

D. His agent

E. A German Shepherd 

[OldTimer1960]

Just now, Seanbillsfan2206 said:

Beane has stated that he won’t reach. If we’re staying put at 12 then there isn’t the slightest chance in hell we’ll take Rudolph there. Maybe at 53..

I’m not arguing to take Rudolph at 12, but if they value him, they should not wait to 53.

[SinceThe70s]

I agree with your overall premise. I enjoy the posters who not only have an opinion but back it up with more than a snarky holier-than-thou dismissal of others, because, you know, they just know! 

 

With that said, I take it all with a grain of salt. Even the people with access to all the info you mention don't have a great track record. 

[OldTimer1960]

1 minute ago, SinceThe70s said:

I agree with your overall premise. I enjoy the posters who not only have an opinion but back it up with more than a snarky holier-than-thou dismissal of others, because, you know, they just know! 

 

With that said, I take it all with a grain of salt. Even the people with access to all the info you mention don't have a great track record. 

No argument there.  My point is to accept that it is an inexact endeavor and realize that there are good reasons that a team might pick someone who a poster might not agree with.

[3rdand12]

Nice post. your clarity is worrisome. you are not on your deathbed are you ?

we don't know.

 But as i have spoken to others, this is the best year in forever to attempt Faith and Trust.

no matter who is wrong or who is right ?

 Gonna be good  fun come  Bills draft night !

[OldTimer1960]

2 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

Nice post. your clarity is worrisome. you are not on your deathbed are you ?

we don't know.

 But as i have spoken to others, this is the best year in forever to attempt Faith and Trust.

no matter who is wrong or who is right ?

 Gonna be good  fun come  Bills draft night !

Not on my deathbed , at least as far as I know!

[3rdand12]

3 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Not on my deathbed , at least as far as I know!

well, keep an eye out/ Maybe sleep on the Couch tonight ?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I’m not arguing to take Rudolph at 12, but if they value him, they should not wait to 53.

 

I think Beane has shown he is willing to wheel and deal so if they want Rudolph and think 22 is a reach, I have confidence he will move to where he feels he needs to.

[oldmanfan]

Bravo.  Us old farts need to hang together.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, OldTimer1960 said:

That may be true, but the team’s job is to maximize the value of the picks they have for the purpose of fielding the best team that they can.  It isn’t beyond debate that selecting Rudolph at 12 and still having 22, 53, 56, 65, 96 and all of next year’s picks won’t be a better option than trading, say 12, 22, 53 and a top 10 pick next year for one of the higher rated QB prospects.

 

I enjoyed your OP

 

Just a little point here that those aren't the two choices, right?  

[Shaw66]

I agree completely with the OP.    Keeping that in mind, I'm sure we all can agree the Bills should trade up at any cost to get Josh Allen.  

[Bing Bong]

I grow weary of draft talk, we have no idea what the Bills are going to do.

[RFL]

1 hour ago, Seanbillsfan2206 said:

Beane has stated that he won’t reach. If we’re staying put at 12 then there isn’t the slightest chance in hell we’ll take Rudolph there. Maybe at 53..

Saying he wont reach doesn’t eliminate moving up some of course.....if their guy is there, and find a partner.....they dance!

[bills_believer]

I know I oftentimes get too invested in who I think the Bills should choose, but previous front offices at One Bills Drive were pretty bad in their choices. They had all that information and they still drafted a Shaq Lawson who had to have shoulder surgery, an injury prone Reggie Ragland and a raw QB who could not take hard coaching. If you gave them the insider knowledge that is available to front offices then a reasonably intelligent panel of fans could have drafted better than our previous front office.

 

The coaching staff did well last year with what they had, so I am a lot more confident in this front office.

 

 

[hondo in seattle]

With many of the OPs observations in mind, I usually don't judge our drafts until a year or two (or three) later.  

 

The light draft reading I do hardly compares to the thousands of hours of due diligence put in by the Bills scouting department.  I simply don't have the time nor the resources to research candidates as thoroughly as they do.  

 

I'll be cautiously excited about every pick.

[DaveLake]

Great message OldTimer1960! Not sure many on here know the word ameliorate and I certainly won't make things better with this message. I love the Steelers and Bills and it's been interesting to watch the differences in approach to the draft. Pittsburgh never drafts near the top while teams like Cleveland and Buffalo are always near the top half. Somehow Buffalo still can't put together a top rated roster? Why? Let's go back a few years when Buffalo was clamoring for a WR. Everyone I spoke with was going to hang the team if they didn't draft a WR.  No problem, the draft was loaded with great WR's that year and the Bills were sitting pretty at pick#9. Then all of a sudden the Bills traded away two first rounders and a 4th to move up in the draft to #4. First I was in shock then I was excited because I thought it had to be for hometown hero and player of a decade Khalil Mack. But nooooooo they select Sammy Watkins! The whole bar was cheering as if Sammy could put the team over the top. My buddy says "Why don't you look happy, we just got the best WR in the draft?" You should've taken Mack, or not traded up at all, I said.

The rest is history now. Here are the WR's Buffalo could have picked without trading away their 2015 1st rounder.

Odell Beckham   Brandin Cooks   Kelvin Benjamin Or waited until round 2 and these guys   Davante Adams   Cody Latimer   Allen Robinson   Jarvis Landry I'm not here to make Bills fans feel remorse. I'm here to say that all the loud mouths that fill these forums don't really know much. Maybe it would be a reach to take Rudolph at #12. But without a QB you're going nowhere. I like Mccarron better than Taylor so that's an upgrade. Rudolph will need at least a full season before he's ever ready to lead the team. Having those two players gives Buffalo a solid shot at maybe a franchise QB. There are no guarantees but they're both are worthy of a chance. With the 2nd first rounder Buffalo can grab a Tackle or ILB. There will be some really good interior lineman and RB's available on day two to target. But the worst thing to do is go chasing after WR's! Chase a QB but never a WR! Look at the Steelers: Antonio Brown- Round 6, Martavius Bryant- Round 4, JuJu Smith-Shuster- Late Round 2 Oh, and if I pissed some people off here......................good! Buffalo's a great city and I love it's rebirth. But It's time for the Bills fan base to step up and act like winners and you will eventually be the winners!

[OldTimer1960]

6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I enjoyed your OP

 

Just a little point here that those aren't the two choices, right?  

Agreed

[Blokestradamus]

8 hours ago, Seanbillsfan2206 said:

E. A German Shepherd 

 

Woof!

 

Damn it. Abort mission. They're on to me!

 

[Thurman#1]

Good points, OP.

 

I try to keep in mind, though I don't always manage, that a reach can be a tremendous success if the player turns out to be better than the consensus thought he was. But sometimes time shows that reaches are just wasted chances.

[tlfcbb]

Great post.  How many times have we seen players taken lower in the draft and go on to have great success.  No matter who we pick, I will get behind them 100%.  I had no great knowledge of Tre last year and felt we should have stayed at 10 and taken a QB, but Tre has proven to be a great success.  I do hope we take a chance on one of the big 4 QBs this year, but if it doesn't pan out that way, I will reserve judgement until I see how things turn out.

[BobbyC81]

Great post, Old Timer!

 

From another Old Timer

[GunnerBill]

9 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

 

Have fun with the speculation and enjoy the debate, but if the Bills pick players you don’t agree with, taken a balanced approach to your criticism.  None of us know how these guys will pan out.

 

 

Except Nate Peterman.  I knew he sucked.  Because.... well..... he sucks.  

[billsredneck1]

12 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Some thoughts about the draft and our opinions of it.

 

For 35+ years I have consumed as much draft information as I can find/absorb.  This post is intended to ameliorate a bit the absolute black and white if you don’t agree with me you’re a moron posts.  

 

It it is great that folks have passion about the team’s fortunes and strong opinions about prospects and what the Bills should do.  However, any of us who thinks that if our team doesn’t do what is “clearly obvious “ to us, then they are incompetent - we are fools.  Sure, maybe our opinion turns out to be right, however that doesn’t mean that the opinion was formed with the most complete information available.  Across a wide swath of posters, someone’s opinion formed on incomplete information is bound to be right sometimes- doesn’t make those who disagreed morons.

 

I enjoy reading the comments of those who really do put significant time into watching game videos of the prospects.  Still, “the tape that doesn’t lie” may be a big part of evaluations, but there are other significant factors that we don’t have good access to:

- we can’t interview the players to understand their personality, get a feel for how they learn, how dedicated they are

- some here can generally speculate about how a prospect processes what he sees and how quick his decisions are, but we don’t have the benefit of talking to college coaches who actually know what the player was asked to do and how he did it

- we don’t have access to the background checks that NFL evaluators have.  A prospect might be able to fool in interviews, but teams can talk with teammates, coaches, support personnel from college and HS to get a better picture of how a guy works, treats teammates/others, reacts to adversity, etc.

- we cannot really know how much room for improvement physically or mentally any of these prospects have.  We can speculate about what they have/have not done, but if a prospect hasn’t been asked to do something in his college scheme, that doesn’t mean that they can’t do it, but I bet that their college coaches would have some good insights.

- we don’t truly know how competition levels really highlight or downplay a prospect.

- how does the talent that a prospect plays with affect his performance?

 

For those who rail against a given prospect in round x because draft pundits say he is a round x+1 prospect, get some perspective.  What is a “reach”?  There is so much that goes into a”grade” for a prospect:  

- how do his skill match what you need him to do?

- do his preparation and instincts overcome some physical limitations?

- has he reached his physical peak or does he have room to add strength, improve skills

- does he fit the culture/is he more professional in his approach than maybe more physically talented prospects?

- what is the likelihood he will be unavailable due to off field problem?

- what is his injury history and can he overcome that?

 

Surely we can all see how complicated and uncertain these evaluations are.  Try to keep in perspective that the pro evaluators have access to information that we don’t.  That doesn’t mean that your opinion might not be right in the long run, but that your opinion is probably based on less than full information.

 

Have fun with the speculation and enjoy the debate, but if the Bills pick players you don’t agree with, taken a balanced approach to your criticism.  None of us know how these guys will pan out.

 

Thank You.  Signed...Nathan Peterman

12 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I’m not arguing to take Rudolph at 12, but if they value him, they should not wait to 53.

they may not have a choice, so, there's that.

11 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Bravo.  Us old farts need to hang together.

fan since i was 10. dec.1973 vs. n.y. jets